How many Y2K shakedown models are you concurrently maintaining?greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread
One with (world-wide, averaged) negligible infrastructure impacts.
One with moderate.
One with severe.
Fourth, one with moderate infrastructure disruptions but which allows for bona fide terrorism and phenomena (solar flares, etc) and whatever WorldNetDaily is reporting.
Flint only seems to maintain one, and I envy him deeply for that. How do you do it, Flint? I need to know! I want one model only!
Utilizing inferential analysis (thanks, 'a'), I come up with a '7' on the scale.
Accepting the official reporting, I come up with a 3/4.
How many do you have?
-- Lisa (firstname.lastname@example.org), August 05, 1999
Can't hang with the Y2K shakedown model because there's too much conflicting news regarding Y2K. I started out as a 1-5 then I stepped it up to a 8-9. Now I'm none of them because I just don't know. Give me something tangible to become a model.
-- nolongeranumber (email@example.com), August 05, 1999.
1. Y2K BITR contributes to a mild recession. This is a guaranteed minimum occurrence in my book.
2. Y2K BITR contributes to a deep recession/depression. My crystal ball gets cloudy when attempting to predict this scenario beyond a "could happen".
3. Y2K smack in the face internationally, BITR in U.S.A. JIT screwed up for many months. Petroleum delivery lags. Higher prices. Recession unavoidable.
4. Y2K kick in the pants globally, with utility problems (rationing) throughout the first quarter (U.S.A.), which will probably cause grid problems throughout the summer due to higher demand then. Deep recession/depression pretty much a given.
5. Add multiple, effective terroist attacks (in the U.S.A.) to any of the above scenarios & each could become a notch worse. By effective I mean that the morale of J.Q.P. nosedives due to the strikes.
Peace to All,
-- Bingo1 (firstname.lastname@example.org), August 05, 1999.
I have 3 senarios that I have concluded will most likely be possible. First one is several months of sopratic infrastructure failures, a state of emergency declared in sept, a vevy deep ression and severe supply chain shortages followed by a period of intense recovery lead by internet based bussinesses. This is my most optimistic hope that the power doesnt stay down for too long and were able to jump start the recovery with new internet based companies spured on with interest free /bad credit forgiven/royality insentive govt loans. Were business productivity will help rebuild a new more honest govt.
The second senario I see as possible is a state of emergency with martial law declared. Wars breaking out in korea,Taiwain,Kosovo,Columbia,Iraq and Iran and in africa. the supply chain will break, every city will experience food riots, catistrophic environmental releases and law enforcement and military agencies will suffer tremendous casulties before getting a handle on it. We will probably lose a quarter of our population. Utilities will just begin to be restored in a year only sporaticly.
The third and worst case senario the unthinkable happens and we have a tremendous nuclear exchange, only a hundred thousand survive world wide and of those that survive only a hand full will be able to last a few years. the envirnoment will be totally messed up, and only those who by the grace of god who prepared for the worst case and were blessed not to be were the hammer fell will have a chance to continue.
I pray that my accesment of the y2k situation is wrong but I have not seen any evidence to point contary to my accessment. The Code is date broken the authorities are spinning the media and public perception. Free Press is all but dead they took out kpfa in berkley. With such a life and death issue as y2k how come no televised townhall's on the subject to invesigate the facts in a public forum. It wont happen. the rich are about to die and they hav'nt figured out yet that y2k not dealt with honestly = WWWIII. If I were Soros or ted turner I would Fund A townhall and have the experts at fixing y2k hold our officials accountable to shut down the nukes and toxic plants and have our nation lead by example the other nations will follow suit and do the right thing. Y2k can be a forced vacation or a war it's there choice.
-- y2k aware mike (y2k aware mike @ conservation . com), August 05, 1999.
I'm preparing for most of the possibilities. Hedging in several directions. If we have no food, plague and pestilence, I don't know how long I'll last, however. But, I'm trying, even with that in mind by having some gold, good filters, a big supply of vitamins, etc. I'm also prepared for a mere bump in the road, which would be really nice.
-- Mara Wayne (MaraWAyne@aol.com), August 05, 1999.
I'm optomistic that the wort we will see is a Severe Recession. That means a Year or More, due to the "Normal" market conditions and International Presures. (This is very tounge in cheek.) People will be unhappy, there will be mild errors, nothing catastrophic.
My second Model is that things are Bad. Electricity Goes, Water Goes, JIT goes, No Food for the Masses, and the Bank Goes long before all of it. So in essence this was the Warning sign. I'm optomistic that I will be able to stay in Suburbia, with my Preparations and am planing to "Bail" friends and Family.
Third Scenario is if TSHTF, I Bug out to remote area. To elaborate, there is Chaos, Nukes, Riots, Military, Whatever that seriously compromises my Families chances for survival.
I'm hoping for the Second, and fearing those things out of my Control.
-- Thomas G. Hale (email@example.com), August 05, 1999.