Stock market is down, Nasdaq is hurting. Is this the fall we have all been waiting for? I'm hearing predictions of a 30% drop buy the end of next week.

-- Stock Watcher (Stock Watcher@Stockwatcher.com), August 05, 1999

Answers

You sound like you WANT it to fall.

-- Johnny (JLJTM@BELLSOUTH.NET), August 05, 1999.

Any reasonable evidence that it will drop by 30% or is it just (doomer) wishful thinking?

-- (d-fens@LA.CA), August 05, 1999.

Johnny: What part of my post suggests that I want it to fall?

-- Stock Watcher (Stock Watcher@Stockwatcher.com), August 05, 1999.

FIAT!!!!!

-- Porky (Porky@in.cellblockD), August 05, 1999.

I don't think this is the drop. I think it will go up again and then drop--I just am not hearing the magic words from the analysts that will make it plummet.

-- Mara Wayne (MaraWayne@aol.com), August 05, 1999.

Percentages aren't high enough yet. They will keep this run going as long as they can. A 30% drop for the NASDAQ puts in below 2000. Not happening yet. A 30% drop in DJIA puts it at 7000. Watch the S&P to get a feel for highs and lows. S&P under 1000 would be a sign...IMHO.

growlin' at the guy on TV...

The Dog

-- Dog (Desert Dog@-sand.com), August 05, 1999.

So much for amazon.com. Can you say "tulip frenzy"?

-- Shorty ($@$.$), August 05, 1999.

It moves back and forth like this all the time yet you post "is this what we have all been waiting for"

I just rest assured in my preps then whatever happens happens

-- Johnny (JLJTM@BELLSOUTH.NET), August 05, 1999.

Does anyone know of a site where you can access longer term graphs, such as weekly and/or monthly closing values?

-- Jon Williamson (jwilliamson003@sprintmail.com), August 05, 1999.

It appears the herd of "Greater Fools" is thinning.

-- a (a@a.a), August 05, 1999.

Well, is it what we have all been waiting for?

-- Butt Nugget (nubuttet@better.mousetrap), August 05, 1999.

The onny thing I've been waiting for is the perfect cup of coffee .

Here is your Doomer T-Shirt Stock Watcher... I think you've earned one as well.

-- (Doomer@awards.committee), August 05, 1999.

I just checked www.cnnfn.com.

DOW is down about 19 points as of 11:40. Anything less than a 500 drop in a day gets nothing but a yawn from me.

-- Anonymous99 (Anonymous99@Anonymous99.xxx), August 05, 1999.

I am not looking forward to a market drop. I was making a tidy profit investing there. Oh, well...

I hope it "sustains" a little longer, because when it does go, and I see that it has the capability to go, look out below. The world-wide fiat money system will go with it. The entire world ecomomy is braced up by the US dollar. A monetary unit backed by only confidence. The panic from that drop will make Y2K look like a 3-day snowstorm.

We did this to ourselves. In 1913 when the Federal Reserve was ratified by an empty Senate chamber and House, the stage was set for this debacle. The US was the last major power to finally go to a central bank system, and take the power of money creation away from the country's government.

Just think, the day the US market starts it's free fall, will be the day the world economy goes to hell in a hand basket. With central bank collusion with major brokerage houses manipulating precious metals prices, and the electronic trading "stops", there will be no warning. Traditionally, in times of monetary chaos, the price of gold and silver would begin climbing before the "hit", giving some sort of warning.

Gold at $257 is unreasonable. It, IMO should be closer to $500 at the current time. I have talked to people and read a lot of material that back up gold prices of $2000-$5000, due to the inflation of the money supply. The current cost to mine and refine gold in the US is $215/oz. Mining operations are shutting down because they cannot make a profit selling GOLD. Is that ridiculous or what? The mines that forward sell to the banks and brokers are killing the industry.

As always though this is strictly MHO.

Life is good, another prozac, and life is better...

"Agnes, is Walker on yet? Honey, could you bring me a beer? Them there Iraq's is gettin' on my nerves agin... Did the welfare check show up Hun? I'm almost down to mah last case a cold uns..."

The wool has been pulled... IMHO

growlin' at the TV...

The Dog

-- Dog (Desert Dog@-sand.com), August 05, 1999.

Your head is going to swivel off if you continue to watch the DOW daily. It has been going back and forth for over a year. You can get charts and historical references at this site

-- Anita (spoonera@msn.com), August 05, 1999.

Well, isn't this all what we have been waiting for? Books are written on "The Crash of 99," and now a new one out by Dr. Ravi Batra "The Crash of 2000." There are countless threads in the archives on predictions of the stock market falling. Aren't we waiting for it to fall or not? Aren't we all waiting and holding our breath to see if Y2K is all it's cracked up to be? Yeh, yeh, just like all the dates of failure and chaos have come and gone without a glitch. Why don't we all just get off this website and quit with the rhetoric because none of us know our ass from a hole in the ground.

-- don'tknowmybutt (don'tknowmybtt@don'tknowmybutt.com), August 05, 1999.

MY PROPHECIES SHALL COME TO PASS.

MY PREDICTION IS SLOWLY COMING TRUE.

DOW- UP 43 TO 10,717

NASDAQ- GAINING BACK ALL DAY DOWN 3

S&P 500- HOLDING STEADY

"AS INVESTORS RETURN FROM TAKING THE SUMMER OFF, TECHNOLOGY STOCKS WILL ROAR BACK WITH A VENGENCE"

THUS SPEAKS PREDICTORAMUS.

WE WILL SEE SHORTLY IF I AM CORRECT OR NOT

-- PREDICTORAMUS (NOSTRADAMUS WAS A CHILD@COMPARED.2ME), August 05, 1999.

Ummm, Predicto. It's called a "Caps Lock" key, usually located on the left side of the keyboard. Netiquette has always been to use CAPS very sparingly, since they "shout" at the reader. Would appreciate it if you made sure that the little green light on that key was "off" most of the time. Many thanks.

-- Mac (sneak@lurk.hid), August 05, 1999.

DONTKNOWYOURBUTT,

I normally don't feed the trolls but for you, I will make an exception.

Do the research on the world monetary system. Get the information and glean the facts. THEN, and only then, come back with a rebuttal. I won't ask for references or URL's, I will take your opinion, and evaluate it on its own merit.

If you can successfully debate the issue of fiat money, and extol its dubious virtues, as opposed to its dearth of drawbacks, and your opinion has not changed, then your research will have taken you to areas I have not discovered yet. I will be very appreciative at that point.

BUT, If you continue with the ignorant "optimist" drivel, (notice I did not say polly) I will discount your thoughts as uninformed. I have spent several years researching the modern monetary system. IMHO, it is not sustainable. If you can find info to the contrary, I will graciously applaud you. BTW, no offense... ; )

The bubble of the stock market has a direct relation to the monetary condition of the world. Mr. Decker, would you agree with that? At current conditions, there is a lull in the world market. All major countries have assets in the American stock market. Should a fall happen, it will not only hurt the national economy, out trading partners would suffer damage as well. Mr.D, are you still with me???

I am not an economist. I do not work for a brokerage house. I am not an avid stock trader, (at least not anymore) I am an informed citizen trying to make sense of the complex lifeform called money...

Thoughts???

head tilted questioningly...

The Dog

-- Dog (Desert Dog@-sand.com), August 05, 1999.

Yerp.

just bought another 40oz of gold yesterday.

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), August 05, 1999.

Anita -

Could not agree more. Just today, the Dow is bouncing around in a 100+ range. *sheesh* OK, everyone, we do ask that you please keep your hands and arms inside the ride at all times...

Interesting comment today about the bond market, risk aversion, and Y2K from The Street.com:

The 30-year bond at 9:29 a.m. EDT rose 17/32 to 88 29/32, while the two-year note was up 8/32 to 100 at 9:40 a.m. Two sources attributed selling by a Japanese institution to the widening in 10-year swap spreads from 105 yesterday to 115 this morning. A swap spread refers to the rate a buyer will pay to exchange interest payments on a fixed-rate instrument such as a Treasury bond to that of a floating-rate instrument (such as three-month LIBOR). (Last year, when Long Term Capital Management blew up, swap spreads widened at about 97 basis points.)

"It caused a bit of a flight to quality in the front end," said Ken Fan, Treasury market strategist at Paribas Capital Markets, who added that the 10-year note, lately up 11/32, is being held back by corporate supply.

Since spreads for highly rated corporate bonds frequently track swap spreads, this is an indication of how comfortable the market is with risk. "To some degree, the width of those spreads indicates what people think about the quality of those credits relative to Treasuries," the trader added. The more risk averse the market is, its more likely to run to safer Treasuries. Lingering fear of Y2K is partly responsible for the widening in risk spreads from 70 basis points three months ago.

-- Mac (sneak@lurk.hid), August 05, 1999.

Sir Dog - Ref your comment on the inflated adn current price of gold.

I believe you will find a close match between the price of gold and the price of oil on the world's spot market since gold was released from the dollar earlie rthis century. Track that, rather than wha tindividual's are purchasing.

Despite the hoopla from the media - there is simply no individually-driven (ie. y2k-driven or hoarding against the apocalypse) market for gold because most people who are preparing simply can't afford enough to matter. If the choice, as for most of those preparing, is between getting 150.00 (or even 400.00 or 900.00) dollars of canned soup (or rice or a kerosene heater or whatever) and one ounce of gold - damn near everybody I know will get the soup.

If nothing happens, we can eat the soup. Gold is worthless if you are hungry or thirsty or cold in the dark. Therefore, don't expect any substantial change in gold - until the public-at-large gets around to panicking.

Then the price of gold will go up, the price of stocks willl go down - followed shortly by a bank holiday. And a few days later international failure of today's oil-driven economy as the availablity of oil goes down, and the price of oil goes up.

-- Robert A. Cook, PE (Kennesaw, GA) (cook.r@csaatl.com), August 05, 1999.

Good chart site is BigCharts.com

-- Mike Lang (webflier@erols.com), August 05, 1999.

Mr Dog, I agree with you, however, I'm not going to hold my breath anymore everytime the stock market goes up or down, or when someone in the highest authority says we're all going down the tubes. You do have to admit, none of us can predict anything! We may have statistic, charts, etc., but that does not mean a damn thing! We're always surprised at the end aren't we? Who was it that said "forget the stock market and Y2K, the solar flares are going to do us in." How do you prepare for that? Scientist say we're in a dangerous time between now and February 2000 for earth being hit by a solar flare....Frankly, I'm tired of all the so-called experts, and people just talking out of the top of their heads with no cold hard facts to back them up. It's all just pure speculation and nothing more.

-- don'tknowmybutt (don'tknowmybutt@don'tknowmybutt.com), August 05, 1999.

Mr. Butt,

I agree wholeheartedly. If I could predict what was going to happen, I would have been the first purchaser of a recent IPO; Amazon.com, watched it go up to its peak, at around $400, cashed out and bought my own personal island and disappeared into the sunset, prepped to the max for anything and everything.

Unfortunately, the only sight that is true is hindsight; which is 20/20 by the way.

Life: it is the only game where the object of the game is to figure out all the rules.

The polly/doomer thing really annoys me. People are so quick to attack someone personally when "that person" responds to their subjective entry, with a debunk, or a diatribe of their own. Most of the time I don't buy into it.

I don't watch the market everyday, there is no point. 3% here, 2% there... A 3% swing is a major yawn, don't waste my time. A two digit move would get my attention, but the electronic sell stops would kick in before then...

If you are prepped, buy precious metals. If you are not prepped, don't...

gettin' a drink...

The Dog

-- Dog (Desert Dog@-sand.com), August 05, 1999.

Mr. Dog: I am prepared to the max! Can you believe that? But, for some reason just because I question "authority," I am readily labeled a polly and a troll. So, if no one can predict the future here regarding Y2K and the stock market, the only prudent thing for anyone to do is to be prepared just in case. (Even before Y2K became a threat, I was always prepared for something). A few months ago, the "experts," were telling everyone to buy gold and silver, and we all know what happened to those markets. I didn't buy any because I could not take the chance of losing several thousand dollars and wait to recoop my losses. I'm not in the stock market or any kind of investment for the same reasons--too risky. But one thing is for sure, I know I can eat and drink if it becomes a worse case scenario, and to me that is more important than having a bunch of gold and silver. I would have a hard time unloading where I live so cash is what I intend on having.

No I think I'll go blow smoke out of my.....

-- don'tknowmybutt (don'tknowmybutt@don'tknowmybutt.com), August 05, 1999.

You know what all these wunnerful computer systems create? Higher levels of productivity. Please stand by...

Slowdown in Productivity

Rate Rises, Wage Pressures Tighten

Productivity slowed faster than expected last quarter, raising concerns that wage pressures might surface, increasing the possibility of inflation. (ABCNEWS.com)

By Jeannine Aversa, The Associated Press

W A S H I N G T O N, Aug. 5  American workers productivity slowed significantly in the spring while a key gauge of wage pressures jumped sharply, the Labor Department reported today. Productivity, defined as the amount of output for each hour of work, increased at an annual rate of just 1.3 percent in the April-June quarter, far below the 3.6 percent rate of productivity growth in the first three months of the year. Meanwhile, unit labor costs, considered a key measure of wage pressures, surged at an annual rate of 3.8 percent in the second quarter, the worst showing for this measurement since the end of 1997.

Labor Costs Top Street

The big jump in unit labor costs far exceeded analysts expectations. Many were looking for a gain of around 2.2 percent, which would have been a pickup from the modest gain of 0.8 percent in the first quarter and an outright decline of 0.4 percent in the fourth quarter of last year.

Financial markets have been jittery over the prospects that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates again later this month. Those fears were heightened two weeks ago when Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan told Congress that recent strong gains in productivity were likely to moderate...

-- Mac (sneak@lurk.hid), August 05, 1999.

The Dow was up 119 points today. The NYSE had 1200 advancers and 1800 decliners. The Dow can go up 119 points every day until the end of the year and if we have the same NYSE breadth figures we had today the stock market will have crashed.

We are entering the END game, the potential for a blowoff top which only includes the bluest of blue chip stocks still exists. For most folks though, their portfolio is already in a BEAR MARKET.

Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), August 05, 1999.

Consider using http://quote.yahoo.com/

They have several chart options.

C

-- Chuck, a night driver (rienzoo@en.com), August 06, 1999.

Good point Ray, that information is what most people who are recently in the market, or have never "played" in the market don't get. The blue chips may be doing wonderfully, but if the rest of the market is in decline, then the DJIA indicator is worthless. I look at all indicators and the picture is much bleaker than if you merely look at DJIA, NASDAQ, S&P 500. Remove the top 25 from the NASDAQ and it is pretty sad.

(soapbox on)

We are in a market bubble. All the majors are overpriced. Market price/earning ratios are at highs. Not a good sign. The jig is almost up. The game is about to be over. The ploy the BOE is playing with selling off their gold 25 tons at a time is a desperate action. They have to keep the price down to cover all the shorts and gold leases because there is not enough physical gold to go around!!! The secondary reason for it is to calm the general population. As long as gold stays at record low prices, the people at-large will think all is well, and continue their programming.

(soapbox off)

GI?

chasin' the cat...

The Dog

-- Dog (Desert Dog@-sand.com), August 06, 1999.

Well, might as well finish the week (and possibly this thread) with the closing Friday market write-up from The Street.com.

Be warned: lots of "doomer" adjectives in this article, such as "beat up", "bitter note", "buried", "atrocious", "bottomed", "cratered", "broadsided" and so forth. The writer obviously spends too much of his time lurking here at TB2K and he's allowed it to cloud his thinking. *sigh*

Stocks Post Losses at the Close After Tumbling on Jobs Data

By Brian Louis, Staff Reporter

8/6/99 4:38 PM ET

A stronger-than-expected July employment report beat up stocks, as the market ended the week on a bitter note:

[Carnage of Major Indices snipped. It's too ugly. -- Mac]

The jobs data were seen as bumping up the odds that the Federal Open Market Committee will raise interest rates when it meets later this month. And some traders fretted that Greenspan & Co. may not stop at just one rate hike.

The 30-year Treasury bond got buried as its yield rose to 6.18%.

The Labor Department reported nonfarm payrolls grew by 310,000 in July, much higher than the consensus estimate of 199,400 among economists surveyed by Reuters. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate came in at 4.3% in July, unchanged from June. Average hourly earnings rose 0.5%, higher than the forecast of an increase of 0.3%.

Breadth was atrocious and volume was light overall. Major market averages did manage to close off their lows, however: the Dow Jones Industrial Average bottomed at 10,653.25; the S&P 500 cratered at 1293.19; and the Nasdaq Composite Index bottomed at 2535.63.

Scott Curtis, senior equity trader at Brown Brothers Harriman, said market psychology is very negative.

People are selling into rallies and not aggressive buyers, Curtis pointed out.

Curtis said that it looked like there was a selling climax yesterday, but then "we get broadsided again" today.

Internet stocks, which enjoyed a stunning turnaround yesterday, tumbled today. The biggest losers were Inktomi (INKT:Nasdaq) and Amazon.com (AMZN:Nasdaq).

Financial stocks, which are sensitive to interest rates, got pounded. The Philadelphia Stock Exchange/KBW Bank Index swooned 2.8%, while the American Stock Exchange Broker/Dealer Index surrendered 3.5%.

The Dow Jones Transportation Average took a shellacking. It fell 1.9%.

On the New York Stock Exchange, decliners thumped advancers 1,969 to 966 on 699.8 million shares. On the Nasdaq Stock Market, losers pounded winners 2,179 to 1,693 on 808.1 million shares.

On the NYSE, 192 issues set new 52-week lows while 41 touched new highs. On the Nasdaq, 89 issues set new 52-week lows while new highs totaled 35...

-- Mac (sneak@lurk.hid), August 06, 1999.

Thanks Mac, here's some food for thought. A year ago, better than expected jobs data would have sent the market soaring. Today it takes a dive.

Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), August 06, 1999.