Alan Greenspan's Fan Club - let's settle this 100% vs 99% figure once & for all. : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread

Here is his fan club website, with a discussion forum.

I'm gonna ask somebody to forward to him the question of exactly how much needs to be compliant, as a percentage, to keep it going.

-- lisa (, August 03, 1999


The answer is...99.254879565 %. Let's face it, we're screwed.

-- Roland (, August 03, 1999.

Recently, though in his own inimitable way, Greenspan has expressed satisfaction with the efforts of the financial community to address their y2k issues.

I think what's important is to distinguish very carefully between percentage of compliance in the industry, as opposed to percentage of *banks* reaching compliance. In theory, it's possible to have the industry as a whole be 99.9% compliant, yet have 0% of banks be 100% compliant -- they all still have a single minor bug, for example.

By all indications, the US financial sector has reached about 98% of banks in satisfactory condition, and of those, internal noncompliance levels have in most cases dropped below measurable levels.

-- Flint (, August 03, 1999.

IN THEORY our banks must interact with the banks in the rest of the world. Any odds on that working?

-- FLAME AWAY (, August 03, 1999.

In practice, I'd say those odds have increased somewhat. We have seen articles talking about 190 banks worldwide, which became 500 banks in another (later) version, doing interbank testing and clearing. There has also been some discussion about cutting banks out of the system entirely if their output causes an unacceptable level of problems.

-- Flint (, August 03, 1999.


Let's cut YOUR bank out of the system and see who's not Pissed.

Don't be such an idiot. You are typically a pretty smart guy.

You just DON'T stop working with BANKS. Cutting off Banks cuts off Businesses, which cuts off people, which....

On an international Scale I suppose you find this Acceptable, by your comments?

Please muddle, I mean clarify, this for me.


-- Thomas G. Hale (, August 03, 1999.


First, read what I wrote, not what you *wish* I wrote. I said there had been some discussion. I was not part of that discussion. If you mention something you saw, should I call you an idiot for *seeing* it? This is *not* my idea, nor is it my suggestion, nor do I understand how the banking community would implement it, nor for how long. I would really appreciate it if you could explain just exactly why *I* am an idiot because *others* have discussed this? Please?

I did make a bit of sense to me that if some bank's software is so badly hosed that they cannot communicate, they have cut themselves out of the loop for all practical purposes, and should be persuaded to limit their efforts to useful test cases with limited correspondents until they could find the cause(s) of their problems. The basic idea was that IF some bank(s) were having problems that bad, having them continue to attempt to participate in normal banking communications would do more harm than good both for them and for the system as a whole. So they'd be cut out of the system (voluntarily) until those problems were satisfactorily addressed.

I don't know what the exact mechanisms would be. This is not my area.

-- Flint (, August 03, 1999.

Flint, you are a JOKE !!! I have lost all intellectual respect for you. No, no way. This can't be you Flint. I want my Flint back!! Someone hijacked our Flint. I'll pay the ransom myself, I'll sell the farm, the car, my mother-in-law, whatever it takes. No, no sir. This can't be you Flint. Fliiiiinnnttt!! WHAT HAVE THEY DONE TO YOU !! We want you baaaacckkk Flliiiiiiiiinnnttt !!!!!!

-- George (, August 03, 1999.


Do you have a topic in mind, or are you just posing in front of a mirror?

-- Flint (, August 03, 1999.

What? This IS our man Flint. This is the same Flint that is going to take ALL of his money out of the bank. That is still true, isn't it Flint? This is you, isn't it Flint? <:)=

-- Sysman (, August 03, 1999.

Flint said:

"In theory, it's possible to have the industry as a whole be 99.9% compliant, yet have 0% of banks be 100% compliant"

No George, that's our Flint.

-- a (a@a.a), August 03, 1999.

To paraphrase Alan Greenspan, who once upon a time uttered a single sentence that became part of your credo:

Over the last six months, I have become encouraged by the reports we have seen. And as Greenspan has *not* said, I have also become encouraged because the only people still badmouthing the banking system are the likes of Andy and A and apparently Sysman, who wouldn't admit an error if it bit them. When the only 'bad' news dribbles from the mouths of committed loonies, this is also good indication that I'm moving in the right direction.

-- Flint (, August 03, 1999.

Fliiiiiiiinnnnttt, you are not this bunch of bull!!....

FLINT, Stop It RIGHT NOW!!!! I mean it. Kaput. Finito. Nada. The End.

Flliiiinnntttt, I want you baaaaaackk (bbwwaaaahhhhhaaaaaa) we want you baaaaaacckkk (bbwwaaaaaaaahhhhaaaaaaaaaa)... nooooooo, plaa-ease, we love you Flint, we need you Flint, our Flint, our "acid test" Flint, not THIS !! (what's 'this' anyway?) PLA-eeese come back !! Flliiiiiiiiiiiinnntttt, come back, I promise not to make fun of you, I'm sorry, I apologize, I mean it, pla-eeeezzzeeeeeee...

Flint: Did you get your brain car-washed or something? Where you've been lately? You showing off by any chance? Vegas? Girls? Attaboy! Really?

Listen Flint: Go back to Las Vegas, do your stuff, say goodbye to everyone (for good) and then, only THEN, come back here to us. Got it?

-- George (, August 03, 1999.

Flint, you are too much of a cognoscente to play the role of a dumb silly dilettante.

Allan Greenspan is in deep sh*t. He knows and you know. You can fool the rest of the world (maybe) if you're lucky. But you can't fool me. You know what I'm talking about.

TSwHTF simply because being August 99 it is written all over the wall.

-- George (, August 03, 1999.


-- Andy (, August 04, 1999.

"only people still badmouthing the banking system area ... and apparently Sysman"

WHAT Flint?

I've been easy on the banks. I've been promoting the fact that they started early. I've said that they are regulated, and should be in the better shape than most. Jeez, I even told the forum that I took out an 18 month CD a while ago! I think Andy made some comments on that one!!! You must be thinking of someone else.

I was just asking a question. I never did see it, signed by you, but I've heard that you said, on this forum, that you were planning to take all of your money out of the bank. Is this true? If I am wrong, I appologize, in bold italic 24 point caps, any color you want! Well...??? <:)=

-- Sysman (, August 04, 1999.

I love the logic. When Greenspan say we need "100% compliance," the pessimists interpret it as, "If one bank fails, they all fail." I think this is wildly inaccurate. Let's see what Greenspan is saying now (July 28, 1999, testimony to U.S. Senate)

"GREENSPAN: "Well, Senator, as we've discussed before, we are confronted with what is truly a unique event (Y2K). Nothing of this nature has ever happened before, and we are starting from scratch in trying to understand all of the potential.

"Nevertheless, I agree with your conclusion about the United States. We have picked up the rate of pace to adjust for the possibilities of problems, and I think, I feel far more comfortable than I did six months ago.

"It is also true, as I recall in the presentation to your committee, that financial areas were perceived to be doing a good deal better than some of the other areas of the foreign economies, and that's important to us because while we are acutely aware of all of the problems that can arise, including the liquidity type of issue which Merrill Lynch is raising, we think we're sufficiently in position to address those issues.

"Indeed, one of the things we follow very closely is the implicit interest rate that is being charged over the new year, because that is not a bad measure of the extent of financial stress that the markets are perceiving as likely to emerge as a consequence of that. And indeed we do see some of what you call butterfly effects where interest rates sort of go up and down. They have not yet reached a point where there is evident real stress in the system. So we can conjecture a good deal about all sorts of problems but people in the marketplace are feeling increasingly more comfortable, as best as I can judge.

"That should not mean that we can become complacent on this issue, but I do think that a remarkable amount of effort has been put in to assure the systems in the United States, certainly in the financial areas, and I would reiterate what you just said with respect to banks, Senator. The most risky activity that people can take is to take all their currency out of their banks because there will be a new industry that will emerge as a consequence of that, which will be millennium thievery.

"And I think that you have a far greater chance of losing your money if you take it out than if you leave it in, and I think that there's going to be a fairly general set of procedures where accounts were going to be made available to everybody, so that in the very, very remote chance that computers break down, and wipe out the evidence of people's deposits, that there is physical material.

"I think that it's a concern which is being very fully addressed, and I see that concerns that a lot of people have about what's going to happen to their banks is, at this stage, far more adverse than I think is even remotely going to be the case, and I suspect, and some of the evidence does show, that the amount, the number of surveys that suggest that people are going to want to draw out cash is beginning to move downward."


-- Mr. Decker (, August 04, 1999.

Look, i don`t know the details of how international banking works.i`m just going to keep it simple. Money is important. Large amounts of money is REALLY IMPORTANT. Operations between the banks in country #97 and country #112---are HOW RELIABLE?---in the first week of year 2000? A minor polly is frequently shouting for facts,but it isn`t the facts as such that are important. What`s important is the INTEGRATION of vital facts. The combining of the above two ideas/facts/fears in the Hundreds of thousands important money players minds, now and till 1-1 and beyond is---going to produce what effects? I hope i`m completely wrong about how bad this situation could be.

-- bud (, August 04, 1999.

Gary North ( has written extensively about Alan Greenspan's "100% compliance" testimony, and also wrote a subsequent letter to Greenspan regarding the apparently inflexible tolerance that the banking system has for Y2K induced errors:

Banking Industry is the Furthest Behind

GN's Letter to Alan Greenspan

-- Jack (, August 04, 1999.

In case you want to read a less sanguine view, Ken, check out the following and then read the full article I posted in reply to it from the WSJ.

It would seem that interest rates on swaps around rollover are starting to butterfly.

I know that you have your money out of the stock market already, Ken, but for those that don't, now would be a good time to get out.

-- nothere nothere (, August 04, 1999.

"Ken"??? Are we by any chance talking about Ken C(ockroach) Decker, a.k.a. Mr. Decker, bull-face economist by day, bull-s*** Y2K optimist by night??? HAS HIS MONEY OUT OF THE STOCK MARKET????!!!???!!???

Whoa, what next, Decker? Moving out of Dee Cee to a survivalist enclave? LOL, LOL!!!

-- King of Spain (, August 04, 1999.


you've got it 100% right but morons like Flint and DDecker cannot grasp the magnitude of what you're saying. Numbskulls the pair of them.


-- Andy (, August 04, 1999.

scared sh**less wrote:

...Nabi, you seem like you are pretty well established in this forum. If I am correct, you have mentioned that you are a bank examiner (or somehow involved in bank examinations.) We hear about the "98% satisfactory" rate all the time. What is your opinion about this. Are the majority of the banks compliant, or at least "ready"? scared, I've been involved in Year 2000 examinations of banks for nearly a year now. My personal view is that a "satisfactory" rating for Y2K is extremely subjective and prone to outside influences.

I have been in banks rated "satisfactory" that I think will do well (at least as far as internal systems are concerned) when rollover occurs. I've also been in banks rated "satisfactory" that I fear will experience possibly serious Year 2000 problems. The "satisfactory" rating appears to encompass a very wide range of actual readiness.

-- Nabi Davidson (, August 04, 1999.


-- Andy (, August 04, 1999.


I do not live in Washington, D.C., or its suburbs. I took profits, mostly in April, because of my view on market fundamentals. In terms you can fathom... buy low, sell high. In particular, I made a few nice speculative plays that created a few years of profits. I can afford to hold tight for what I predict will be a sharp recession. My current investment strategy is to hold selected U.S. equities, a well-managed international fund (picking bargains for a few years) and a wide mix of gov't bonds. Does this make me a GI? (laughter) No, it makes me a savvy investor.

Now, Spain, where's your money? Currency buried in mason jars? Gold coins in the safe? Are you long in military weapons and ammunition or perhaps, soybeans? (laughter) Oh, wait, investing in supplies to hold post-Apocalypse mud wrestling matches. Under the light of torches with animal-skin clad beauties, Spain becomes the entertainment mogul of the future. Too funny. Regards,

-- Mr. Decker (, August 04, 1999.


You are weak even to defend puting that into any sentence you ever construct. That(There has also been some discussion about cutting banks out of the system entirely if their output causes an unacceptable level of problems.)

Yes I read into it that you intended to agree with it in context with your previous sentence. Finding the odds better that the Banks would make it. It was an agreeable conclusion to make and if you wish not to be understood you will continue to write in said fashion.

It's just a plain stupid, thoughtless remark.

On a different level you shouldn't worry so much about semantics. It's the CONTENT you should deal with.


-- Thomas G. Hale (, August 04, 1999.

test to see if NERC sept drill formats ok; will post as new thread if does
NERC Y2k Workshop
August 6, 1999
Breakout Session 1 Discussions on
September 8-9 Drill Preparations

1. Describe briefly what you are doing for the September 8-9 Drill: a. What kinds of scenarios are being drilled? b. What are the time horizons for the exercises? c. What resources are committed

The following examples of scenarios, time horizons, and resources committed for the September 8-9 drill were provided by the Y2k Workshop participants:

 Loss of remote terminal units (RTUs)  Blackstart radio check  Pipeline stations to operate on manual for 2-3 hours  12 cooperatives to talk together and with VP by satellite phones  Managers and supervisors work with employees at substations; focus on communications  Start at 1400 hours on 9/8 for dress rehearsal until 0200 hours on 9/9  Loss of normal communications; test satellite links; process computer in nuclear plant  Hospitals  Customer drill will simulate a total outage of electric supply; will lose air conditioning; will actually go on backup power noon to 1600 hours  Test contingency plans and command center  Satellite communications and backup radios; distribution lockout/tagout will be manual  Man 20 substations for dress rehearsal; lose some generation; put some generation that is on standby on-line  Full rehearsal during day; expand communications drill to include customers; use exit strategy; communications drill with PJM at midnight  Use of ham operators and 800 MHz emergency management radio system  Fail business systems; use cellular phones; coordinate with Emergency Management Agencies (EMAs), some customers; problems with generation and transmission; 800 people, 9 pm 9/8 until 2 am 9/9  Post rollover checklists/ verifications  Simulate loss of RTUs, energy management system (EMS); put standby combustion turbine online; 10 pm until 2 am  Coordinating with city EMA; exercising media information center; include one substation failure (non-Y2k) at 11:30 p.m.; potential load curtailment exercise; drill 50 of the 250 people available for December  Contingency response plan deployment; monitor power systems in Europe to see how they respond; some local simulated failures; 10-20% of workforce out that night  Daytime exercise with call center; communications drill in PM; set up emergency centers; loss of load scenario; plant trip; loss of environmental data; loss of bottom ash system  Tabletop exercise on loss of load (less than anticipated load); communications drill; operating, Information technology, management, and facilities management personnel; deploy people for midnight rollover; open Y2k information center; media and government communications; drill call centers on outage calls and inquiries  Involving 150 public utility districts (PUDs, small customers); radio communications with them; broadcast capability to get information out to them; involving hydro units  Communications checks with neighboring systems; reading tie flows; calculate manual area control error (ACE); media at pool control center; media liaisons will do their real job; simulate loss of lines and generation; simulate curtailment of transactions; 8 am to 4 am on 9th; practice regional and NERC call groups  Loss of communications and use of human RTUs  150 people in substations; full mobilization at 10 pm 9/8; report data until 2 am 9/9; 250 people  Exercising business processes; information centers; customer care center; corporate communications; 7:30 pm start  Loss of RTUs; phone systems; staffing blackstart units and key substations; roll out media relations; 400 people; use training simulator set to New Year conditions  Simulate flood; staff emergency center; test communications with cooperative and municipal customers  Loss of communications from control center and local dispatch centers; use plane for an airborne repeater station to bridge a communications gap; how to convert human RTU data to useful information  6 pm 9/8 to 2 am 9/9; staff all blackstart units; frequency points assigned to plants; verbal talk through of blackstart procedure  Power marketers participating from their emergency center; coordinating with generation facilities and exercise contingency plans  Tabletop blackstart drill; staff substations in evening and simulate loss of communications; coordinate with emergency management agencies  Staff contingency event centers; staff substations; operate with third level backup EMS; set up data collection process; include nuclear facilities; high voltage contingency at 3 am  Business-side scenarios will not be known ahead; military and communications companies also are exercising (what kind of interactions with them?)  Use satellite communications for control area operations; simulate communications failure with neighboring system, fossil plant, and nuclear plant; activate information center  Test communications with host control area; not full dress rehearsal (municipal transmission dependent utility)  Loss of communications and islanding of system simulated; over midnight deploy human RTUs  Contingencies in fuels area; loss of fuel and communications; loss of public switched network; be able to communicate with key accounts; condensing contingency procedures and rollover into several hours  Full dress rehearsal; second tier business systems will be included  Try report by exception  Training a second shift to be ready  Loss of supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) system, customer call center, communications; weather scenario; inviting media and customers to participate  Including EMAs, simulated events; full deployment of staff; use of backup communications, human RTUs; control area to control area communications using satellite phones; reserve activation, load shedding, and other contingencies simulated  Business systems; simulating ice storm and materials management; facilities management  Emergency operations center; ham radio links; satellite phones to regional center; emergency broadcast tests; maintain a media center separated from the control center; executive management not at control center  Primary and alternate teams; trained and drilled in June; August 12 rehearsal, including a shift change; unannounced drill scenarios; simulate loss of generation, load, reduced SCADA and EMS and communications; will do shift change during September drill; customers, media involvement  Need to nail down good list of telephone numbers  Information system (IS) and information technology (IT) will run four different drills; run an IS and IT war room; will operate during rollover and drill; several hundred people ready to respond from IS/IT area  Board members invited to participate  Loss of electronic data exchanges; process to check accuracy of human reported information; some surprise scenarios built in  Some large customers also setting up drill activities and want to interface with their power supplier  Including cyber and other threat scenarios in the drill  One customer providing backup phone system to power company to allow it to stay in communication with the company should there be a loss of public switched network  Prepare for customer calls into customer service center  How to measure effectiveness of drill? What processes are effective? 2. What are the biggest challenges? How are you solving them?

 Large staffing issue  just the size of the activity; plus keeping regular jobs going  How to measure effectiveness of drill processes?  Are utilities planning to contact vendors and other critical suppliers during the drill  Phone lists and radio frequency call groups  Training of personnel; training in communications  Avoid over-committing resources; need additional people available  Lots of people involved in drill that would not normally participate  Prepare a timeline with control messages; criteria of what the observer is looking for; rated on the spot  Hospital - cost of lost revenue; large dollars involved; testing communications and backup vendors  Getting unions to go along with the resource staffing plan  Training personnel in event management and reporting processes  Exchange of status information in company is harder; much harder now to include external companies and agencies  Coordination of activities around midnight; confusion around midnight if simulated failures  Over 600 people; logistical management challenge; labor union cooperation (volunteers for duty on New Years Eve)  Assign project coordinator and team; assign accountable persons in each area  Verifying manually obtained RTU data by plugging into EMS manually and comparing it to real time data  Not able to get all the same people during drill and New Years rollover; large percentage will be same and have same assignment; training pack for each substation; give to personnel one week ahead as assignment is known  Involved a wide range of departments and personnel in some tabletop exercises  Take snapshots of system data and verify with data reported from field; keep good logs with time stamps; follow-up with debriefings soon after drill  Simulate movement of generation based on human RTU data; then see how generation actually moves on real basis  How to take care of major (all) customers; notify them of what is going on; every service area has at least one radio station that people listen to for emergencies; will provide timely statements to those radio stations for public and customers to hear  Have satellite providers give us a report on satellite phone usage during the drill  Beacon getting a lot of attention  Most are planning to fuel trucks prior to key period; should this be practiced; resolve logistical issues  Overcome some challenges by keeping the drill simple  Could we do a simultaneous load test on the satellite phones?  Will code of conduct be suspended? 3. How are you involving distribution systems, IPPs, power marketers, EMAs, and others?

 Getting distributors involved this time; setting up organizations and radio communications with them; additional new training  Working with EMAs; utility personnel in those facilities with radios  Simulating loss of natural gas; coordinate response with loss of communications  Concern with run on gasoline at end of year  need to fill up early  How do you stay up all night? Let people doze/nap, as appropriate, make sleeping arrangements available  Exception reporting vs. roll call to verify communications still OK.  Every communication needs to say This is a drill before and after every statement  Monitor CNN and local TV station  Functional verification checks  Prioritize information requirements  Logistics of moving people around

-- lisa (, August 11, 1999.

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