So for all you pollys, let me explain...

Before I was an optimistic, yes, optimistic, 6.5-7.5. After a series of business decisions at my corporation and some of my friends, well, it's become obvious to me that there just might be something to the infamous "Infomagic" series of articles.
Our international logistics and transportation company decided to hold a Y2K meeting on contingency planning. When the subject of spare parts and redundant communications systems came up, gee, what kind of response do you think we created? I shut up and decided to watch some V.P.'s sign their own death warrants. They said, and this is a rough quote- "the government said that the systems should be ok, so why should we invest 15 million in spare parts for a ninety day period?". I was floored. Just when you think remediation internally would have given them some clue, they come up with this "money saving" idea. Jesus H. Christ people, our particular industry (trucking and intermodal transportation and logistics) lives or dies on spare parts. And this idiot espouses beliefs from this administration?????
My hunch is to resign this fall, and move even further away from the central Florida city that I am close to now. If this is the mindset, God help us. I believe our old ghost, Infomagic, just might have seen more than I originally gave him credit for.

-- John Galt (jgaltfla@hotmail.com), August 01, 1999

Answers

Mr. Galt,

I am assuming that you are not the same John Galt who was an outspoken critic of the Trojan Nuclear Power Plant near Portland Oregon, where I spent nine days protesting in 1977? The one who gave such an inspirational speech at the waterfront park along the Willamette River?

JOJ

-- jumpoffjoe (jumpoff@echoweb.net), August 01, 1999.

Hey John, if the worst happens, hide out in Ferndale, living off the oranges and fire ants. Central FLA? That's where 'Alas Babylon' was set, just sout of Whorelando if I recollect rightly. Head to Taz's neck o' the woods: Ocala National Forest. Man could live off the wilderness there, if he kept his head about him.

-- Spidey (in@jam.commie), August 01, 1999.

Something that has been bothering me alot for the past month or so:

People seem to ramp up the number they think its going to be when they see more evidence that Y2k wont be a BITR. I think that what we really should be doing is validating our feelings of what it could be. Say for instance you think its going to be a 6-7, if you see more proof its likely to be tough going, should it bring you to a 8 or 9 or just support your feeling for a 6-7 ?. Evidence or news showing you that you are right about your 7.5 to 8.0 shouldnt change it to a 9-10, rather it should simply validate your feelings.

-- Me Watch (MeWatch@imhere.com), August 01, 1999.

John Galt, I have the gut feeling that you live in or close by Jacksonville. Do you happen to know Doug Lambert by any chance? I could tell you a lot about how logisticians and logistics experts (including University professors) made fools of themselves regarding Y2K.

Take care

-- George (jvilches@sminter.com.ar), August 01, 1999.

Unfortunately, I must agree on your evaluation. 8.5-9.0 is about mine, as well. I hope that we are both overestimating the problem...but think that we are not. The problem is with the DWGIs who won't hedge their bets with prudent actions (preparations). When the handwriting is finally on the wall, the resultant panic will do more damage than attacking the problem in a timely manner.

But those VPs who would't vote to prepare will be the first to blame you for not warning them...

-- Mad Monk (madmonk@hawaiian.net), August 01, 1999.

John: Methinks I smell the everpresent "bean-counters" at work. They only live in the here and now and can't see beyond the end of the present day's bottom line. Solution: add bean-counters along with lawyers to species that have a substantial bounty on their heads!

-- Neil G.Lewis (pnglewis1@yahoo.com), August 01, 1999.

John;

The point is Most people have gotten "ahead in this world" by staying with the herd. There has been a mass movement in the US by not believing in FRINGE elements. Y2K has not yet become Mass Media. The corporate intelegency keep their jobs by stearing the middle road.

It is the Middle Class that has built America.

The middle class has not seen any danger, they will not move. Nothing will happen until the wakeup call.

Would somebody remind the front desk that it is time to make the wake up call?

Good morning, your world is going to change today......

-- helium (heliumavid@yahoo.com), August 01, 1999.

Musing

Now if we could only found a place like "Galt's Gulch", a GI only sort of place......

course, the goobermint would wanna come and "fix" things, ala waco

-- (nobody@nowhere.com), August 01, 1999.

Great, just great. The front desk phones don't work. Who's gonna go around and bang on the doors?

-- Randolph (dinosaur@williams-net.com), August 01, 1999.

John: Looks like you work for a pile of Jerks..I would love to hear what others have experienced in their work place concerning this issue..

-- Cassandra (american_storm@usa.net), August 01, 1999.

I work for a government transportation agency. Talk about clueless. They think there will be no problem other than minor glitches that can be fixed in a few days. They have a 5 year work program that assumes that gas tax revenue will not be impacted, communications will work, fuel and electricity will be available etc. etc. etc. They see no impacts. Projects are done in phases and it takes 10 years to do all phases on a road segment including environmental studies, design, right of way acquisition and construction. The initial phases are still starting on new segments. What will happen is numerous projects will be stuck in the interim phases and no funds will be available for the construction phases on projects in the final phases instead of recognizing that gas tax income will be reduced due to fuel shortages and increased fuel costs as a minimum even if everything else, power, refineries, communications, banking etc. is fixed and there is no depression or recession. I think they really don't know and it is not a matter of putting on a good show with contingency plans to allocate the money so it will result in usuable projects (construction). The process is very political and the legislators would not hear of delaying their pet projects because of something dumb like Y2k which is all a bunch of hype anyhow in their view. You would not believe the beaucracy in this place.

-- Ed (amazed@wow.gom), August 01, 1999.

Me Watch... I find myself getting more pessimistic also. The news does NOT just validate previous estimates. The news is WORSE than expected. The cluelessness is more pervasive. Less has been accomplished than expected. It seems that very, very, very little has been certified *compliant*, and much of the "mission critical" stuff isn't even "ready" yet. Instead of remediation and preparation we get public relations spin. Fewer people are taking it seriously than expected. Few people or communities are making serious "contingency plans".

Too little... too late.

Another notch up the scale.. another trip to Costco.

-- Linda (lwmb@psln.com), August 02, 1999.

Been a 10 for a long time, the meter is just pegging over harder these days with smoke coming from the windings.

-- Mitchell Barnes (spanda@inreach.com), August 02, 1999.

Me too Mitchell,

in fact a 10+ taking into account the poisofire scenario and inevitable militarism plus/minus rollover...

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), August 02, 1999.

I'm afraid that an 8 is the same as a 10 in this case. hey - did anybody see Tony Browns (PBS) Y2K show, it was pretty good. If I can I'll tape it and force people to watch it.

peace, Dan

-- Dan G (thepcguru@mailcity.com), August 02, 1999.

J.G. -- did by chance all those bean counters have "horn-hair" ( a la Dilbert character )?

Shakespeare, superbly intelligent and insightful as he was, missed a bet, only because "who'd a thunkit": Besides "First, kill all the lawyers" he should have added "second, the accountants, especially the ones with MBAs." (Bookkeepers are OK, you do need to keep track of what's going on and to make a few projections.)

What you saw in the meeting regarding inventory stockpiling was the same kind of "thought" that gave us the Y2K thing in the first place: "Oh, we can get 'x' more records per tape, process 'y' more records in memory, if we use 2-digit year info." "Why should we spend any money remeditating now (1985, 1990, 1995...), I've got a bonus to look out for, and any problems won't happen on my watch" -- and upper management is too preoccupied with trying to jack up the stock price to pay attention to little details like that.

-- A (A@AisA.com), August 02, 1999.

Speaking of scales.. I was listening to ? think it was Y2K News Radio the other day. Woman from L.A. was talking. In the discussion it was said that for a big city like L.A. there was no middle of the road... anything more than a 1 or 2 and it automatically goes to 10.

What say you all?

Want to listen? link

or go here and choose one of the 7/26 links.

-- Linda (lwmb@psln.com), August 02, 1999.

A VERY good point Linda - I can see the logic there, spent many many visits in LA and Orange County - the place is a war zone at the best of times!!!

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), August 02, 1999.

Linda -- good point. Yes, there will probably be no middle ground for the big cities. Either a 1-3 or a 7-10. Whereas the possibilities for farming communities close to small heavy industry communities (if any) could have the whole spectrum as a possibility.

My guess is a 9 maybe a 10 for the cities and 6-8 maybe 9 for small communities that actually produce something (as opposed to retirement and resort communities).

That brings up another point, what about the retirement and resort communities? They're probably gonna be in the same fix as the big cities. Buncha infirm retirees dependent on pensions and/or Social Security, or a buncha yuppies who don't know the difference between 6 vDC and 110 vAC or a carburetor and a fuel injector.

-- A (A@AisA.com), August 02, 1999.

Many small towns may not be in as good a shape as you might think. Many small towns are just dragging along. Not much industry. Commodity prices (grains and meats) are way down; farmers deep in debt. And, most importantly, a whole lot of "elderly" on pensions or the dole (it ain't just the underclass in the ghettos sucking up tax revenues). In fact, many people retired move to smaller communities where their Social Security goes further. They may be "nice people" but when TSHTF, they are going to be an immediate burden on the local community instead of the fed, state and county governments as at present.

-- A (A@AisA.com), August 02, 1999.

Remember how the CIA warned that the first week of 2000, besides the rioting and power outages, the three biggest known disasters would be:

Uncontrollable Fires
Sewage BackUps
HazMat Accidents

This up at Gary North's today:

Cities Will Burn

http://www.y2ktimebomb.com/Tip/Lord/conn9931.htm

Comment: This one has been on my mind ever since the Montreal ice storm crisis of January, 1998. Well, actually, ever since it ended.

The city's mayor decided not to alert the public that the water treatment facility was about to shut down for lack of power. Untreated water would have flowed into any unfrozen pipes. Why the silence?

Because Montreal's fire marshall convinced the mayor that there was a greater threat than untreated water: fire. He told the mayor that if the people were alerted, they would fill their bathtubs with water, thereby lowering water pressure. If a fire broke out at that point, it might spread untrollably.

It will be cold in January. Someone in every city will do something stupid to keep warm if power goes off for 72 hours. Fires will begin. How will they end?

We have relied on water pressure to protect our cities from fire.

Without electrical power, pressure will drop. Then what?

Susan Conniry, the survivalist, discusses this on Westergaard's site (August 2).
* * * * * * * * * * * * *
Last week I received the following e-mail:

"I just had lunch with a State official. He had just returned from a meeting of Emergency Managers in Washington, D.C. During that session, the managers were advised that within 24 hours after the roll-over into the Year 2000, it was anticipated that every major city in the United States would be on fire, and their contingency plans should include provisions accordingly."

Whether or not you believe the message to be valid (the sender asked to remain anonymous), after you consider the possibilities that might lead to this kind of scenario, you should be more than convinced.

Last January during our Preparedness workshop, my husband advised the audience (as we always do) as to the precautionary measures that should be observed when there is an open flame of any kind. He made particular emphasis that a burning candle should NEVER be left unattended. As if to prove him correct, the local YWCA burned that night. The reason? A resident (who hadn't attended the workshop) left a candle burning in her room, it fell over and the rest is history.

The likelihood for these kinds of accidents will be exponential if the power is out for any time period at all.

Although candles with an open flame require due diligence another concern is the storage of quantities of flammable liquids. Ask yourself how many of your neighbors have stored various fuels (diesel, gasoline, propane, and/or kerosene) in their garages? Many of them will have paid no mind to simple safety precautions for storage of any flammable and combustible materials . . . .

And, of course, in an emergency situation there is always a chance of civil chaos. Riots in the streets that more often than not lead to fires . . . .

Now add insult to injury for the emergency/safety services personnel.

At a Law Enforcement Y2K readiness meeting in June 1999, the representative of the Office of Emergency Services (California) informed the group that another concern for emergency managers is the fact that legislation has just been passed to allow the use of fireworks for New year's Eve celebrations. There was a collective groan from all in attendance . . . .
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Ashton just went to CostCo and bought another 3 fire extinquishers. We have an industrial-grade thick heavy very long hose near the outside water spigot for Just In Case.

xxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxx xxxxx

-- Ashton & Leska in Cascadia (allaha@earthlink.net), August 02, 1999.