Thank God, I live in Texas.

greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread

Hey Ya'll, I am pretty new here and I know I don't have any business posting but I just have to say I am really pretty proud of Texas. It seems we are really on the ball. I have talked with the local power company (TXU formally known as TU Electric) and they are confident that Texas will not have any problems because we are not a part of the grid! That is wonderful news for all who live in Texas. Also the fact that in the winter time (you know the time when it is supposed to cool off a hair) we won't be freezing.

Now, don't get me wrong, I am not bragging and I am sure Texas will experience other problems of great importance, but the fact is I am relieved to know the power will stay on. I hope and pray that NO ONE has terrible problems but the looks of those other countries does not look good. How is everyone else's state going? Is there a place to find out how we all rank in readiness? I have realives and friends all over the country and I would like to be able to give them direct links to such a place so hopefully everyone will get it before it is too late.

Please don't flame me, I really am not trying to get on anyone's bad side. Just proud to live in the lone star state is all>>>>>>Grant

-- Grant (gmstewart@hotmail.com), July 31, 1999

Answers

Well, Grant, someone has to live there. Glad to hear your proud.

I am wondering about what your reaction is to the revelation that energy problems may take place in the dead of summer, when electricity usage is at its highest. Yeah, Texas heat in excess of three digit temperatures. No air conditioning, no water.

And I'm not even a doom and gloomer!!!

Yup.I really am proud that you're so proud.

-- Bad Company (johnny@shootingstar.com), July 31, 1999.


Grant, In his faceteous way, Bad brings up a good point. The worst of the effects may not happen til spring or summer, after supply lines dry up. Personally, I'd rather be in Ohio in winter than Texas in summer without power.

-- (dot@dot.dot), July 31, 1999.

Dot and Bad, You know, you do have a point there. The Texas heat is scorching. And honestly I haven't given much thought that we would have a problem lasting more than 3 months. I have heard nearly all good and have not even prepared my family for more than 3 months. But now thinking maybe I should. As far as no air conditioning goes...well, we have lived without it in the past and we shall survive again if it comes to that. Sure ain't too comfortable though. Thanks for not letting me have it.

-- Grant (gmstewart@hotmail.com), July 31, 1999.

Congratulations! You are fortunate in having the same luck as those who were served French cognac on the Titanic! I envy you! ?????

-- A. Hambley (a.hambley@usa.net), July 31, 1999.

The article at this link mentions nine states that are slow in becoming compliant:

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/tc/story.html?s=v/nm/19990716/tc/ yk_cities_3.html

-- Linkmeister (link@librarian.edu), July 31, 1999.



Grant, you are very much part of a grid, but it only includes Texas.

-- Brooks (brooksbie@hotmail.com), July 31, 1999.

[Fair Use: For Educational/Research Purposes Only]

Friday July 16 1:31 AM ET

Big U.S. Cities Slow On Y2K Readiness

By Jim Wolf

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Many big U.S. cities -- including Los Angeles, Chicago and Washington -- are leaving themselves scant time to complete preparations for possible year 2000-related computer glitches, the audit arm of Congress said Thursday.

In addition, nine states are ``behind'' in efforts to ensure their most critical systems do not fail when the year 2000 dawns, said the head of a Senate panel monitoring the issue.

The nine -- which reported having completed work on less than 70 percent of their most important systems -- are New Hampshire, Ohio, Alabama, Louisiana, Colorado, Wyoming, New Mexico, California and Hawaii.

On a local level, only 55 percent of the smallest counties surveyed -- those with a population below 10,000 -- say they have countywide emergency plans to cope with possible 2000-related disruptions to vital services, the National Association of Counties reported.

At issue are fears that some computers may crash or scramble data by misreading 2000 as 1900, the result of old space constraints that pared the date field to two digits.

Any such glitches, known as Y2K problems, could disrupt the provision of water and waste treatment, emergency services, transportation systems, city government services and the operation of public buildings among other services.

The problem could also boggle systems that hinge on date-sensitive microchips, such as traffic signals, radio communications and 911 emergency services that rely on global positioning systems.

Dallas and Boston were alone among the 21 biggest U.S. cities to report completion of efforts to deal with the so-called Y2K problem, the General Accounting Office said. The GAO is the audit and investigative arm of Congress.

Nine cities -- New York; Houston; Philadelphia; San Diego; San Jose, California; Indianapolis, Indiana; Jacksonville, Florida; Memphis, Tennessee; and Milwaukee -- said they expected to complete preparations by Sept. 30.

The remaining 10 -- Los Angeles; Chicago; Phoenix; San Antonio, Texas; Detroit; San Francisco; Baltimore; Columbus, Ohio; El Paso, Texas; and Washington -- said they expected to be ready by Dec. 31.

Joel Willemssen, head of a GAO arm that tracks information systems, voiced concern about the laggards. He made his comments in a letter released at a hearing of the Special Committee on Y2K issues.

``Completing Y2K activities in the last months of the year increases the risk that key services will not be Y2K-ready in time for 2000 because there will not be enough time to deal with unanticipated complications,'' Willemssen said.

``Given the amount of Y2K work remaining to be done in the last months of the year, contingency plans are critical to ensure that cities will continue to provide key services through the year 2000 date change,'' he added.

The Senate panel displayed a chart showing that only 43 percent of the 21 cities' key systems were said by the cities themselves to be ready as of July for the date change.

The GAO carried out the study by interviewing city officials by telephone from June 28 to July 9.

Sen. Robert Bennett, a Utah Republican who heads the special Y2K committee, said he feared that many state and local governments were ``leaving little room for testing, contingency planning and unexpected problems.''

``I hope these statistics aren't as bad as they appear,'' he said in a written statement.

``Only very efficient executive-level management and contingency planning can sustain us through the upcoming historic date change,'' added panel Vice Chairman Sen. Christopher Dodd, a Connecticut Democrat.

----------------------------------------------------------------------



-- Linkmeister (link@librarian.edu), July 31, 1999.


______ Dallas and Boston are alone among the 21 biggest U.S. cities to report completion of efforts to deal with the 2000 computer glitch, the audit arm of Congress said Thursday.

Thanks for the link. That still sounds pretty good to me. Yeesh, I didn't mean to cause hostility with ya'll. You know how us Texans are. Everything IS bigger in Texas...including our mouths...

-- Grant (gmstewart@hotmail.com), July 31, 1999.


to all:

NJ has thier payroll done I hear - nothing else

Bob P

-- Bob P (rpilc99206@aol.com), July 31, 1999.


Grant: I have lived in Texas for 62 years and I have learned not to trust politicians and company executives very far. I live about 7 miles from Commanche Peak Nuclear Station and the summer heat isn't the only thing making me uncomfortable. It was 106 degrees today without the heat index. As one of our Northern friends once said.. well never mind, summer time is not the time to see Texas!

-- Neil G.Lewis (pnglewis1@yahoo.com), July 31, 1999.


Neil, Wishful thinking I guess as I am still preparing. My A/C has gone out in my truck and I tell ya, It's HOT!! Well I don't have to tell you. I live in the DFW area myself.

-- Grant (gmstewart@hotmail.com), July 31, 1999.

There is quite a bit of information about Y2K projects in different states at this link:

http://www.amrinc.net/nasire/y2k/index.cfm

-- Linkmeister (link@librarian.edu), July 31, 1999.


Grant - How long have you lived in Texas? Long enough to write Ya'll it looks like. I know someone who works for TU in a supervisory position and he is not so sure everything will be ok after 01/01/00. He told me about being there when the clock was rolled forward on a big generator and they lost control. That was in March of this year and they had not tried it again as of last month. Texas is not any better off than any other state as far as being ready to handle Y2K problems so here is my suggestion to you ... read a lot more, post less and move to another state.

-- InTexas too (1345@56789.com), July 31, 1999.

Grant

You may be interested in the testimony provided below on a survey done in Texas regarding the efforts (or lack there of) of cities and towns. Interesting stuff. I saw the Q&A during the senate testimony and his comments were amoung the most disturbing.
 

Senate Y2K Committee

State & Local Government Preparedness "Y2K Readiness?"

 July 15, 1999, 9:00 a.m.  -   192 Dirksen Senate Office Building
 
 Testimony of Robert D. Browder of Shannon, Gracey, Ratliff & amp; Miller

snip

An effort was made to contact the highest ranking computer or network system administrator, preferably the manager of Manager of Information Systems within each city administration. Of the nearly 100 cities contacted, three-fourths could not respond due to unavailability of key personnel, failure to return messages from surveyors, or simply a lack of willingness to participate.

-- Brian (imager@home.com), July 31, 1999.


Grant,

If you live near Dallas, you'll want to read this article from May 25, too:

http://www.dallasnews.com/metro/0525met60cityy2k.htm

"Council members worry services won't be Y2K-ready by Jan. 1 after hearing report"

-- Linkmeister (link@librarian.edu), July 31, 1999.



I'm glad you are feeling confident about the situation in Texas. However, just because you are not on the grid does not mean that you won't have power problems and just because the utility company SAYS that everything is OK does not mean that is IS OK. I hope for your sake that all is well in Texas in January but you might just have a few suprises in store for you. Most utility companies are saying that everything is fine and rosy but that doesn't mean that it is.

-- Brenda McSwigan (brendaandjim@sprintmail.com), July 31, 1999.

I'm glad you are feeling confident about the situation in Texas. However, just because you are not on the grid does not mean that you won't have power problems and just because the utility company SAYS that everything is OK does not mean that is IS OK. I hope for your sake that all is well in Texas in January but you might just have a few suprises in store for you. Most utility companies are saying that everything is fine and rosy but that doesn't mean that everything is.

-- Brenda McSwigan (brendaandjim@sprintmail.com), July 31, 1999.

Hey Grant,

I hope you are right. Even if the power stays on there, I still wouldn't trade the bluffs along the Wisconsin River for that wasteland. No offense, but you can have that state. Give it back to the rattlesnakes. :)I think you're a troll!

Go Packers....

Go "Rose Bowl Champ" Badgers.

ON WISCONSIN, ON WISCONSIN

-- (Nanuck@UPnorth.com), July 31, 1999.


Well Hell, Those aren't such good reports. As you guys can tell I am VERY new to this whole thing. Yes, I agree that I need to read more. Post less? That's the only time I have ever posted. Move? wouldn't dream of it. I have lived here for 27 years (my entire life) and couldn't imagine living anywhere else.

Think I might ought to be passing on the information ya'll gave me on to my Texas friends and family. Sure do appreciate the links. Don't care much for the shitasses that have to be so unfriendly. Hell, would it piss ya off if I said I was good-lookin too? Just can't please anyone these days. Thought my fellow Texans would back me up with some good news but hell, guess I been thinkin too much.

-- Grant (gmstewart@hotmail.com), July 31, 1999.


Grant and Brooks, I had heard that Texas was on a "separate" grid as well. However, last week when about 25 counties north of Houston started having rolling blackouts, ABC's channel 13 in Houston reported that those counties (electric company is Entergy) were on the same grid as the northeast. That was the first time I had heard that information. Call the station if you would like to find out more. KTRK 713-666-0713

Also, our local Fox station (channel 26 in Houston) interviewed a spokeswoman from HL&P (now known as Reliant Energy) who said that we WOULD have power outages next year, but that they would have all of their crews standing by to fix things as soon as possible.

So, while I agree that Texas is a great state to be in during the rollover, I won't "count my chickens before they hatch." We're all just going to have to wait and see. It does seem like a large number of Texans are preparing, though. For that I am thankful!

-- Gayla in Houston (privacy@please.com), July 31, 1999.


Grant,

There was also this article from July 26th about some Central Texas cities:

http://austin360.com/news/1metro/1999/07/26generators.html

"Cities snapping up generators for Y2K"

-- Linkmeister (link@librarian.edu), July 31, 1999.


Grant, just ignore the unfriendly mean posters. They try to discourage newbies. Many regulars would welcome you warmly. Weekends are "different" on this Forum; more trolls are out baiting, mudslinging, flaming. Good luck coping with Y2K, for some reason a hot-button topic firing emotional reactions in people who have given it some thought.

-- Ashton & Leska in Cascadia (allaha@earthlink.net), July 31, 1999.

Grant,

Don't stop prepping because things look good.

There is more than the electric grid to be concerned about.

I lived in Dallas during 1977 and we had to shut down alot of industry during the winter of 1977-1978 that consumed natural gas because interstate supply contracts trumped intrastate contracts. Lots of upset people in TX were laid off in order to send natural gas north.

BTW, given a 11 or 22 year solar cycle, the winter of 1977-1978 must have been a peak solar year - I remember lots of industry closed for several days to conserve limited resources.

-- Bill P (porterwn@one.net), July 31, 1999.


Gayla, Whoa girl now I am really confused. I hadn't heard that before but I will take your word for it. I would be interested in finding out what the deal is on that one too.

Linkmeister, your efforts have not gone unnoticed and I appreciate your time in helping me to understand this matter.

Ashton and Leska, Thanks like I said before I didn't mean to get such a rise out of these people. But, some people are just nasty no matter what. Thanks for being kind.

-- Grant (gmstewart@hotmail.com), July 31, 1999.


Says he is new, writes like Texas red neck would talk and has a hotmail address. I say his former girlfriend from Texas told him to shove off and he is trying to get even with her for moving back to Texas. My suggestion is "Get Lost, Grunt"

-- Think he is a troll (Noticing@HisStyle.com), July 31, 1999.

Where the hell do you people come up with such crap?? No, I really would like to know. I did not come here to play childish little mind games with you yankee ass punks!!! If you want to think I am a troll by the way I type then I suppose you are welcome to your opinion. I type the way I talk. I am comfortable in doing so and I don't need your approval. I wouldn't say I type like a red-neck though. LOL yer just a jealous 'lil shit, ain't cha?

-- Grant (gmstewart@hotmail.com), July 31, 1999.

OH YEAH, and someone Please tell me what the hell is wrong with having a hotmail account? At least I am honest and give my real e-mail address. And hell it was free so how do you get the fact that I am posting here to piss off my girlfriend? Ain't you just the smartest little shit. My wife and I are ROTFLOAO and that one.

-- Grant (gmstewart@hotmail.com), July 31, 1999.

Grant,

I wouldn't worry too much about being called a troll. Some posters are edgy because there has been a lot of trolling going on here since at least January. I for one thank you for starting this thread, because others from Texas may be finding out some information they wouldn't have had a chance to otherwise.

This forum has a wide diversity of individuals and opinions on it. Don't be surprised by what you see. Welcome to the forum!

-- Linkmeister (link@librarian.edu), July 31, 1999.


Grant,

If you are going to venture into posting, you have to learn to ignore the little troll babies that venture out into the big world every week-end.

Now it is as obvious as the nose on your face that little ol' NOTICE wouldn't recognize style if it jumped up and bit him on the a**. That is a very good indicator that he is a little troll baby.

-- Dian (bdp@accessunited.com), July 31, 1999.


Linkmeister, Well I won't sweat it too much. I think everyone is on edge with this whole end of the year thing going on. I know you guys have spent quite a bit more time researching the subject than I have. I have only recently become aware of the seriousness of the whole matter in the past few months. I admire the people who come here and post all the information that they do. I plan on putting much more time into it. It seems such a difficult problem to grasp with all the differing opinions. I guess I thought I was researching the right places but after reading the reports that you linked, I think I need to reseach more deeply. Just tonight I have read reports saying everything is rosy and others saying everything is going to hell soon. I don't know what the hell I am supposed to believe now. I am guessing everyone else feels the same way and that is what is causing all the hatefullness on this forum. Take care of yourself.

-- Grant (gmstewart@hotmail.com), July 31, 1999.

Shouldn't that be "Thank Gawd"?

ex-Dentonian :o)

-- Nathan (nospam@all.com), July 31, 1999.


Grant, have you got a basement to hang out in when it's too hot? Folks lived in Texas before AC, and those with preps and basements will do much better than those without.

-- (nobody@nowhere.com), August 01, 1999.

Dian, Yeah, I did "notice" but have to defend myself ya know. Don't much think I will be venturing out in poster land much anymore after tonight. Think I will head on back to lurkville and leave the posting to the "experts". Fought too many emotions tonight. First was relief, then came disbelief and worriedsome and anger and laughter. Hell, that's more than I can stand in just one post.

-- Grant (gmstewart@hotmail.com), August 01, 1999.

Grant, I suggest you check out the preps board. Much less aggravation there, more helpful folks, lots of great information.

http://greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a.tcl?topic=TimeBomb%202000%20%28Y20 00%29%20Preparation%20Forum

-- nobody (nobody@nowhere.com), August 01, 1999.


Nobody, Nope, unfortunatly I do not have a basement. I do live in the country next to a small lake. But all I have is a garage and I was cussing today when I had to go into that "hell hole" to rescue the cat! Geeze, it was hot!

-- Grant (gmstewart@hotmail.com), August 01, 1999.

Hey Grant, please excuse my original facetious, tongue-in-cheek attempt at humor. Being the huge Steeler fan I am, I have naturally hated Dallas---and anything associated with Texas---since I was a little boy. Imagine my shock when I read the thread title, 'Thank God I live in Texas'.

I got carried away. I should have realized that you already have the misfortune of Jerry Jones, George Bush, and giant insects in the same state, and with that in mind, hopefully y2k will bypass you.

I'm okay now. And I hope you'll take the words of advice intermingled therein: the real electrical crunch may come in the warm weather months.

-- Bad Company (johnny@shootingstar.com), August 01, 1999.


Grant,

The truth is, nobody knows what's going to happen in January. Preparing for Y2K is a lot like buying insurance...you may not need to use it, but having it is a good idea just in case.

I'm a little more comfortable about the status of utilities than I used to be, but again, who knows? Right now I do think now that one of Y2K's greatest potential threats to the U.S. is that imports from overseas that we depend on could slow to a trickle early next year.

-- Linkmeister (link@librarian.edu), August 01, 1999.


To Gayla:

I heard the same thing and I was surprised because on the grid map it shows Texas as a stand alone grid called "Ercot". So now what do we believe?

To Grant:

You are correct that all the news about the lights staying on in Texas has been good but many of the central Texas cities are buying stand-by generators. Austin just purchased 25 and they have their own power plant.

I am preparing for the worst and hoping for the best. If we do lose power I hope it is in the winter. You remember the well known saying: "If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell."

I have lived in Texas all my life but sometimes in the summer I sure wish I could commute to some place in the northeast.

-- Nadine Zint (nadine@hillsboro.net), August 01, 1999.


Bad, I should have realized that you already have the misfortune of Jerry Jones, George Bush, and giant insects in the same state,

NOW THAT IS FUNNY!! Aw hell, I forgive ya. You know I do live near Dallas but I have never been a cowboys fan. I think they are really full of themselves and when they were being called America's Team that really pissed me off. They had no business calling themselves that. No offense takin man. Guess I probably did sound like a 'lil shit myself with that thread title...oh well...

Noboby, I will check out that prep board. I thought that was where I was but I was mistaken. Thanks for the tip.

-- Grant (gmstewart@hotmail.com), August 01, 1999.


Agreed, Linkmeister. Your sage words of advice regarding the date rollover and the idea that no one has a clue to the consequences bear repeating here....and often. I have tried to read as much as possible over the past two years, attempting to bypass the schlock produced by the two camps in the process. The more i read, the better I feel about efforts on these shores.

However, the issue of interconnectedness is, IMHO, the great unknown. Can America exist in a vacuum? That is, as all other countries around the globe have problems of great magnitude, can we continue with business as usual? Well, I am no economics major, but this is perhaps why people like Ed Yardeni see a huge reversal of fortune on the horizon.

Link's words about y2k preparedness can only be viewed as prudent by all readers.

-- Bad Company (johnny@shootingstar.com), August 01, 1999.


Two informative links on Y2K and imports:

"Experts warn of Y2K trade upheaval - Each nation's problem will become a global one"
http://www.joc.com/issues/990308/p1age1/e20324.htm

U.S. Department of Commerce report: "The Year 2000 Problem And The Global Trading System"
http://y2k.ita.doc.gov/y2k/y2k.nsf/dd5cab6801f1723585256474005327c8/b3 cb5b3db231dd9b85256759004baaa5?OpenDocument

-- Linkmeister (link@librarian.edu), August 01, 1999.


Grant, I live in San Antonio and they say that the power company here has done a sucessful roll over test to 2000. BUT I also know that the bulk of TX power is run on oil products. Now where are we going to be sitting when the imported oil dribbles in and the electric bill is $700.00 a month? I'm doing a solar battery thing to run some fans. And will try to keep the pool up for cooling down some. If we get one of those lil' cold snaps I put up a cord o' wood for the fireplace. It would suit me jus fine if we get this kind of rain next year. Summer jus started this week. I wouldn't think of leaving Texas.

Deep in the Heart of Texas!

-- Army Girl (aGirl@ag.com), August 01, 1999.


I drove through Texas 4 times and took a different rout each tiome.

Texas is by far "THE ugliest State in the USA!"

-- y2k ready (y2kready@aol.com), August 01, 1999.


Thank Gawd all my ex's live in Texas. ;)

-- Red (willie@ustaxpayer.com), August 01, 1999.

I'm sorry I missed this guy named Grant.

In response to a few other questions, Texas IS the only state on the ERCOT grid, yet the ERCOT grid does not encompass the entire state of Texas. Portions of Texas are included in the WESTERN grid. Since Grant lives in the DFW area of Texas, he IS on the ERCOT grid (as am I.) Dallas, Fort Worth, Arlington, and many other cities are in VERY good shape for Y2k. TXU still has some testing to perform in September. Therefore, it's a good idea to prepare for any failures that may occur in September of THIS year. BTW, Lone Star Gas consolidated with TXU several years back.

In addition, water services are dependent not only on TXU having the electricity working, but the water remediation of your particular town. Again, DFW is in VERY good shape regarding water. Other cities, such as Austin, Houston, etc. should NOT be included in this generalization.

Grant was correct in many points he made. I, too, find it comforting to live in Texas, at least in the DFW area for rollover. On the other hand, it DOES get uncomfortable without A/C. Most can typically live through this discomfort, although some agencies are currently installing small A/C units or providing fans free of charge to high-risk residents due to the heat we have now. These are typically elderly, bedridden people who would suffer most from the heat. This isn't peculiar to Texas. Elderly folks die in the Midwest during heat waves also.

-- Anita (spoonera@msn.com), August 01, 1999.


considering how many major cities texas has and all those guns,I'd consider leaving the great second biggest state for somewhere with less population density and a less dependant division of labor.

-- zoobie (zoobiezoob@yahoo.com), August 01, 1999.

I hope the power goes off where I live because I won't have to look at the ugly puss of George W.(acko) Bush anymore. :)

-- (Pollyanna@zulu.com), August 01, 1999.

February 13, 1999, 08:10 p.m.

Y2K petrochemical warnings sounded

Houston-area plants race computer-driven clock to prevent disaster

By BILL DAWSON Copyright 1999 Houston Chronicle Environment Writer

As the nation's petrochemical capital, Houston faces a unique array of potential problems, ranging from the catastrophic to the merely troublesome, because oil and chemical plants are controlled with thousands of computer chips that may be vulnerable to the much-publicized Year 2000 bug.

Industry officials are racing the clock to identify and correct plant systems containing date-sensitive chips that won't read 2000 properly. At the same time, companies are reviewing and refining their contingency plans in case they don't find all the problem chips and the computer glitch causes an emergency.

With a flood of recent reports on the Y2K bug's threat in other computerized areas of modern life, the additional specter of fires, explosions and toxic clouds at petrochemical plants might seem like premillennial jitters or technophobia.

In this case, however, the warnings are coming from people and groups more noted for their expertise in the industry's complex workings than for any tendency toward doomsaying, and who are taking care to distinguish their concern from alarm.

"It's not a hoax," said Ray Skinner, area director of the U.S. Occupational Safety and Health Administration's Houston South office. "It's a real issue and something that's very, very important."

Other examples:

7 The Paris-based Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, which counts the United States and 28 other nations as members, declared in December through its Working Group on Chemical Accidents that the possibility of problems caused by the Y2K bug is "a serious problem which must be addressed immediately."

7 The U.S. Chemical Safety and Accident Investigation Board, a new nonregulatory agency, has been drafting a report to Congress on the need to head off Y2K problems. "This is a problem that touches everybody, but I don't think there's a reason to be panicked," said Dr. Sam Manan, a Texas A&M University expert on chemical safety participating in the report's preparation.

7 The Oil & Gas Journal, a leading trade periodical, last fall called the Y2K bug, including its safety ramifications, a "problem of unprecedented scope for (the) petroleum industry."

7 An OSHA memo advises industry officials to evaluate devices including alarms, air monitors, hazard-communication databases, generators and underground tank monitors for possible Y2K problems. "Fixing the problem may be painstaking and labor intensive," it says. "Not fixing it may be worse."

Industry officials not only are trying to prevent problems in their own plant systems, but also are alert to the disastrous potential if the Y2K bug somehow cuts off electric power to their facilities for an extended period.

Dr. Angela Summers, a chemical engineer and safety consultant who works with many petrochemical companies, imagines such a scenario:

It's early morning on Jan. 1, 2000. Dancing lights sparkle on the Houston Ship Channel's murky waters. They aren't reflections of anyone's millennium party, but dozens of safety flares that have roared into action at oil and chemical plants along the channel. The improbable suddenly has become reality.

"Houston will be well lit" if that happens, Summers said. "It will look like a big birthday cake from the sky."

The cheerfulness of that image is actually fitting. Planned shutdowns of large oil and chemical plants take days, even weeks, to ensure safety and pollution problems don't crop up. Any unplanned shutdown is riskier, but the successful activation of all those flares would be the best outcome, because they burn gases that otherwise might escape disastrously.

The extensive safeguards in place at petrochemical plants have become increasingly dependent on computer technology in recent years, necessitating the correction of software and other items that might fall prey to the Y2K bug.

Since the 1970s, plants increasingly have been laced with thousands of devices employing date-sensitive computer chips, which help workers control chemical reactions, monitor operating conditions and carry out safe plant shutdowns.

If even one or a few chips can't read the year 2000 properly, those systems might not work properly. The prospect of several simultaneous failures is particularly worrisome to safety experts, as is the prospect of one failure causing other devices to malfunction.

Other facilities like offshore oil platforms and pipelines, which form a spider's web beneath the Houston area, also depend on "embedded systems," so named because computer chips are embedded in them.

`Triage' situations

The word "triage" frequently crops up in descriptions of industry efforts to find and correct systems susceptible to Y2K problems. Because there may not be enough time left to find all date-sensitive items -- especially for some late-starting or slow-moving companies -- many efforts are focusing on systems critical to plant operations and safety.

Some industry officials say flatly that if a company is not far along in its efforts to become "Y2K-compliant" by now, it should now work intensively on contingency planning for a possible emergency.

Many corporations, trade organizations, government agencies and academic experts are paying attention to the issue and stepping up their efforts to address it.

A frequent refrain is that large petrochemical companies will probably avoid major Y2K-related problems but that small and mid-size enterprises -- including facilities that use but don't make toxic chemicals -- may lack sufficient awareness or resources to do the necessary detective work and retrofitting.

"There is a sizable concern, which I share, that there may be people who are not attentive to this issue and that it could cause serious problems at their facilities," said Dr. Jerry Poje, a toxicologist and member of the Chemical Safety and Accident Investigation Board.

"At a minimum, they might have a plant shutdown," Poje said. "But even if it's a safe shutdown, the period of time (to accomplish that and then safely restart operations) is too painful for small businesses and work forces to absorb."

Drawing criticism from some chemical safety advocates, government agencies at the state and federal level are pursuing a nonregulatory approach that emphasizes communicating the need for potentially affected companies to take preventive action.

The Texas Natural Resource Conservation Commission, the state's principal environmental protection agency, has confined its involvement to form letters advising regulated facilities that Y2K-related corrections may be needed to assure public health and safety. The letters provide references to sources of information on the Internet.

Limited resources

"We really don't have the resources to offer the regulated community any kind of technical assistance," TNRCC spokesman Patrick Shaughnessy said.

Federal agencies have principally focused on working with industry organizations, such as the American Petroleum Institute and Chemical Manufacturers Association, to spread the word to member companies about the need to fix Y2K problems.

"Early in these discussions, we told trade associations we were not approaching them as a regulator, but were trying to partner with them, to increase awareness, develop surveys and make them public," said Don Flattery, sector outreach coordinator for the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Project Y2K Management Team.

Congressional leaders have made clear they have little interest in granting extra powers to federal agencies to address the issue now, either with regulation or detailed advice on corrective measures.

"Specific technical guidance would be very difficult, particularly at this juncture, at this stage of the game," he said.

OSHA's Skinner said efforts aimed at finding and correcting Y2K problems are widespread at Houston-area plants, at least those visited recently.

"At every plant we've dealt with, they're working on it," he said.

Still, he voiced concern that plans to get prepared for computer-glitch complications at certain plants could increase safety risks, especially for workers.

He worries, for instance, that companies' concerns about a Y2K-triggered shortage of oil or processed chemicals might prompt them to stock up, refilling older process vessels near plant control buildings that are now kept empty to enhance worker safety.

At the same time, he said, such companies may assign additional workers to these now more-vulnerable buildings in case they need to perform more control functions manually when Y2K problems afflict plant systems.

Two companies with Houston-area plants -- OxyChem and Rohm and Haas -- described their Y2K-readiness efforts in December at a special meeting of the Chemical Safety and Accident Investigation Board in Washington, D.C., on the issue.

18,000 items to check

With the help of a consultant, OxyChem identified 18,000 items in its 34 plants' control systems that needed to be checked -- a much-larger number than plant personnel had found in their own, more limited inventory in 1996.

Employees developed a screening method to identify those devices with possible Y2K problems -- looking for those that generate a real-time date, for instance, or share digital signals with another device, said Dan Daley, the company's maintenance director.

This screening winnowed the 18,000 devices to fewer than 500, which are now being fixed, undergoing further testing or which require extra guidance from their manufacturer to assess, said Dan Daley, the company's maintenance director.

"Nominally, by midyear we hope to have all remediation complete," Daley said. "Our objective is to run through the key Y2K dates, but there are still issues that we need to deal with, including whether our electric suppliers and the overall electricity grid will be supplying our plants adequately."

Like OxyChem, Rohm and Haas is combining its search-and-repair efforts with contingency planning, including an evaluation of whether to temporarily shut down plants before Dec. 31 as an extra precautionary measure.

"Certainly one is to stop production at some point before the millennium, but that's only one option," spokesman Ken Gedaka said.

`Shutdown' mode

Some Rohm and Haas plants are typically shut down between Christmas and New Year's Day anyway, and the company may place others that operate at that time -- including its Deer Park facility -- in a "ready-to-shut-down mode," Gedaka said.

The company is now testing some corrected items, Gedaka said, and expects to finish a final step of reintegrating all repaired systems into plant operations by June 30.

Some industry officials and other experts fear, however, that not all companies are that far along.

"I haven't heard any customer say they've found a (Y2K-related) failure that would have caused an explosion, but they've found a lot of little things that failed, which in combination may result in an incident," said Summers, the La Marque-based director of Premier Consulting and Engineering, part of Triconex, a company that makes emergency shutdown systems for petrochemical plants.

"I've worked with some companies with process systems that are archaic, with safety systems that are 20 years old," she said. "Some companies are spending a lot of money to fix these problems and some are not spending anything at all."

As a result, she believes some plants may not be able to avoid all computer-related safety problems.

"For some of the companies without adequate Y2K preparation, it's likely that some kind of incident will occur -- a potential fire, explosion or toxic release," she said.

With that prospect in mind, experts such as Manan, a chemical engineering professor at A&M and director of its Mary Kay O'Connor Process Safety Center, see a need for public officials in communities near petrochemical facilities to make sure they are ready for Y2K-related emergencies there.

"From a local government perspective, do Houston's emergency coordinators know the total number of facilities that might have problems?" he asked. "Do they have response mechanisms in place, and do they have their own Y2K problems in emergency response?

"The whole area of contingency planning needs a quick going-over."

http://www.chron.com/content/story.html/page1/195526?R343505859

-- KLT (KLTEVC@aol.com), August 01, 1999.


Hi Grant, welcome aboard and howdy neighbor! Yes, Texas is on its own grid. But when I was poking around on the TXU web site, I realized that while their opener page is full of "good news", if you dig deeper you get into some fairly uncomfortable numbers. Go there and check it out for yourself, they talk about being "ready" rather than "compliant", and on top of that there is a whole lot that they haven't even checked yet. So, it makes me nervous for one. There is a y2k web site located in Denton you might do a net search for (lost all my bookmarks), his information was similar to yours in terms of this being a relatively good place to be during rollover.

As for oil, if imported oil becomes a rarity it seems like it might actually be wonderful for the Texas economy, provided they can get it out of the ground fast enough. Plenty of folks here remember the last oil boom times.

My personal biggest concern is water treatment and sewage treatment. Waco says they will have everything tested in plenty of time but they can't make any guarantees. If we don't have good drinking water and we don't have adequate sewage treatment, this city will have a major health problem on its hands in a short period of time. And without water, there goes any hope of a garden.

Keep on praying. (real email but delete the DELETEME, write anytime)

-- Mommacares (harringtondesignDELETEME@earthlink.net), August 01, 1999.


HERE'S WHY I LEFT HOUSTON:

I have some friends who are MAJOR independent oil-producers with holdings throughout the world. Last year I put some technical info together for oil industry to share with these friends - gratis. NO INTEREST WHATSOEVER. One of the guys has a private oil company $600MM and his brother went public last year with another company now listed on NASDAQ. They and their friends are doing "da nada" re Y2K. Fix on Failure.

Wish I could convey a Texas twang ... "Don't you worry. My boy and I saw something on 60 Minutes about that Year 2000 stuff. Bill Gates is going to take care of it."

Another friend who's president of an int'l independent oil company (he previously owned mucho rigs) ... "Don't tell me about the problems. Tell me how I can make money from this Year 2000 stuff."

Another friend who had a Houston-based oil equipment manufacturing plant ... when I sent him information and spoke with him ... "It's not my problem anymore. Last week I sold the company for $45 million cash to an Austrian."

Last time I spoke with these Houston friends was about 6 months ago. I've since sold my home and have moved to Oregon. [Used to live in Memorial.]

My "ex" sold his company for $25MM to a company listed on NYSE, which is comprised of about 12 companies acquired over past 6 years. It took me 6 months to convince him they had a problem - and he's an engineer! He then went on a personal campaign to alert the NYSE listed company that bought his. They laughed at him. He made sure he had his recommendations in writing. Then just gave up.

I was a lunch partner with guy heading Y2K for Shell. I played the dumb female role to get info. He told me that they couldn't test and remediate rigs unless they were shut down - too many safety hazards. "Of course we could shut down to test and remediate, and don't have to worry about safety risks. Only have to worry about money."

Now I've seen where he's quoted (he was president of trade organization) about embedded "chips" not being a big problem. He could safely talk about "chips" cause that is relatively accurate. Embedded systems are the problem. About 100-150 embedded systems on a rig, comprised of about 10,000 embedded "chips". All it takes is one stupid little chip - at a key point - to create havoc.

A friend who inspects Penzoil facilities told me most refineries aren't gonna make it. Pipelines are going to be another big problem.

Another friend who's daughter is in middle-management for an oil firm, forwarded me a note from the daughter. Apparently the oil company told management team that there will be problems and that employees should start making preparations. But, individual level of preparations was best left for them to decide. Company gave no guidance.

Last spring ('98) I met a guy who was plant manager of a large gas transmission plant in Beaumont. He oversaw the construction of the facility about 11 years previously. He was told by the CEO of a $10 million engineering firm that they contract with, that their facility had no Y2K problems. I gave him some technical information and a list of problem areas to look into. They ran some tests. Lo and behold. Y2K problems. CEO of engineering firm initially didn't believe him until they ran their own tests. Y2K problems. Plant manager called and thanked me for saving their company. [I'm not an engineer.] Took me to dinner as a "thank you".

At Embedded Systems & Process Control conference last spring ( '98), head of Y2K for a Pfizer research facility was sitting next to me. He had an IT background. He was there trying to learn about embedded systems.

I had dinner with head of Y2K for AMOCO. Nice guy. Same IT background. Told me embedded systems had been new to him. Took a long time to grasp. Still was learning. Lucky he had some electrical engineers who understood.

At same conference there were 2 people from City of Houston. Both with wastewater treatment. During a break I got together with these guys. According to them, at that point in time - they were the only department working on embedded systems issues - and, even then, had just started.

In March of this year ('99) Houston was looking for someone to oversee Y2K program for Houston infrastructure. I saw the job specifications.

For five years I developed customized software applications for my ex's company (Houston-based). He sold his company to someone listed on NYSE. I did same for them for 2 more years.

BTW: The company designed & manufactured some of those little black boxes that are on plant floors. The ones filled with embedded systems. Boxes that were soldered shut. His company had 85% of the automotive market. Medical market was growing rapidly.

Way back when ... As we transferred files from Lotus to the database, I questioned what a lot of these items were that were listed in the Bill of Materials.

Like "RTC" ... Real Time Clock. Cute little things in those little black plastic boxes of theirs. I have one, so I can show people what they look like.

Purchasing agent (delightful, hard-working lady with high-school degree and no technical experience), would order automatically off of index cards. Eventually did the same off of Bill of Material database.

As orders came in, she went into the back-room and dump the new order of RTC's into a cardboard box, along with what else was there. If one of the BIG black boxes were returned, for whatever reason - and not re-sold, they took it apart ... and put the old parts back into those cardboard boxes. What happened is you had a bunch of RTC's in one cardboard box. RTC's that were ordered over a 1-2 yr period.

This is how I understood just how bad this whole embedded system thing was.

My ex was a Rice graduate engineer. It took me 6 months to convince him about the problem at the company. Even though he sold the company, he was still on the board. When I explained he could run into personal liability ... he learned real fast. He went to the CEO of the NYSE company and explained their problem and where it might be in other companies they owned. They did nothing. Laughed at him. He's no longer on the board. Put warnings in writing to protect himself from liability. Sold most of his stock.

November '97 I met with the technology editor of TIME Magazine to explain the "embedded systems" problem. I wanted engineers & CEO's to understand where vulnerabilities were. All to no avail. When "embedded systems" then became more prevalent in media - he chose not to write anything anymore cause it was no longer a "scoop".

Two years ago I thought this problem could be solved. I don't anymore. I gave up "trying to educate and save the world". I'm tired of being laughed at. My energy is better spent elsewhere.

Probably the strongest emotion I have with this whole Y2K mess, is an overwhelming sense of sadness. I also feel anger, because we should NOT be at the point we are. We should be further ahead. If I was capable of understanding this in the Fall of '97, and knew where to find the technical information to help others ... why in the h*ll haven't those in key decision-making positions been able to??? Greed and ego is what I personally attribute this to.



-- Cheryl (Transplant@Oregon.com), August 01, 1999.


Deyer Grayent,

Puleese don' tayk uffence wif da way Ah'm spellin mah wurds, but ah'm trayin ta rat lak ah uset ta tawk! Yep! Ah'm prowd ta have lived in Texas, too! Tha oprative wurd, dough, is HAVE lived.

Y'all see, ah uset ta rilly luv da wether in Texas; all but da summers, dat is. An' mebbe da springs. An da fall, too, subtimes. It's fuggin HOT. An it's fuggin MUGGY. Leastways id is in East Texas. Ah libbed in Lubbik fer whal. Id's not muggy dere. Jest HOT.

Anyhaw, dose Texas winters wuz NAHCE! Wahrm wun dahy, freezin-ayus cold duh next. I member wun day, new yahr's day, 1965, ayght 'clock en dah mo'nin. 90 dugrees. Whew!!!

Udder yahrs, doh, why, Ah seed it wheyun it wuz below zero! Dayum! Freeze yer cumquats awf!

Grayunt, Ah gotta teyull ya'll, Ah cudden tayke it no mower. Ah jest hadda move my lil butt out heaya to da west coast. Ah no yer gonna cawl me a yankee. Mebbe ah ayum. Ah donno. But ah will NEVER spend anudder day in Texas. Sheeit no!

Heayar on da wes' coast, thar's trees (not dose lil weedy thangs y'all call trees in Texas) everywhar! Morn'ed y'all could evah hope to barn up in da stove! We-uns stay toastie wahrm heah on da coast! An we don' NEVAH get all dat HOT wedder. An we don' NEVAH get all dat MUGGY GOD- DAM HUMIDITY! Lawdie, boy, who ya'll kiddin?

Proud to be in Texas? SHEEIT! Ah'm PROWED tah be FROM Texas. Bin prowed ta be FROM Texas goin' on 32 years!

Ah ain't goin tell ya whar Ah live, cuz der be's too many fokes movin heah arready. Stay whar ya'll ahr. Good boy! STAY! SIT! STAY!

JOJ

PEE ESS: Thanks for the really fun and informative post.

-- jumpoffjoe (jumpoff@echoweb.net), August 01, 1999.


Grant, I got to thinking that I might have sounded sarcastic in my post. I was just fooling around. No offense, huh?

I do want to say that the other reason that I left Texas, other than the fact that I am a builder, and can't stand the heat and humidity in Dallas, where I spent the first 23 years of my life, is the attitude that Texans have about how special they all are. Heck, my dad tried to instill that attitude in us kids. Why, we even used to fly a little Texas Flag from our radio antenna when we went on vacation (always to a cooler climate, naturally) just so everyone else would know how superior we were. Seriously!

Now that attitude is called "Jingoism", and I'm happy to say that the folks out here don't suffer from jingoism just because they live in this state or that state. Sure, some of us freak out about Californians, but that's just because they keep moving up here and bringing their big government rules with them. And driving up all the land prices. But at least we don't consider ourselves superior just because we happen to live in one state instead of another state.

Now, if we could just cure ourselves of feeling superior because we happen to live in the U.S. of A instead of some other country....

JOJ

-- jumpoffjoe (jumpoff@echoweb.net), August 01, 1999.


Y2K Ready, you must not have travelled much. Texas isn't the ugliest state there is. There are several that are worse.

JOJ

-- jumpoffjoe (jumpoff@echoweb.net), August 01, 1999.


Joe, Naw, I thought that post of yours must have taken quite a while to write. I know it was pretty difficult to read anyway...You know I have learned much more from this thread than I had expected. Thanks to all for the responses. I have sure appreciated 'em.

-- Grant (gmstewart@hotmail.com), August 01, 1999.

Cheryl from Oregon, thanks for sharing about the embedded systems. I envy you moving to MY home state; I will always miss living there, but now more than ever. I found a lot of food for thought on this site today, and your submission was so frighteningly plausible, it touched on my worst suspicions .. that the herd mentality of human nature, of which the business world is a part, is guiding the responses of the majority of people. If they are not too worried about it in their personal preps, why would we believe they'd behave or think differently in evaluating the Y2K risk in their businesses/ industries? And if they do decide it is a BIG deal at work, how can they escape that same conclusion regarding possible risks to their families? I applaud you for your courage in trying to raise alarms and to get some people thinking and moving. People in my world react so oddly to the mention of Y2K, that I pretty quickly stopped trying to assess what people around me are thinking/doing about it. Your submission helped me to imagine what is happening on the subject of embedded chips ... not much more than magical thinking along the lines of "what we don't know won't hurt us". Could it be that "they" who run America's businesses don't know much more about the technology they use to manufacture, process, etc., than I understand about this Mac ? i.e,... I just always depend on it not giving me any trouble, since I'm pretty much at a loss what to do if it does act up. Anyway, your anecdotes were informative for me and I appreciate your taking the time to share them. Good luck in Oregon.. if you are smart enough to love it and appreciate it, you belong there.

-- Kristi (KsaintA@aol.com), August 01, 1999.

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