This will be a precursor to Y2K, no doubt. Any comments, insights. Plan to be home that weekend

Howdy!

-- howdy (foo@foo.com), July 30, 1999

Answers

Well, it's a *precursor* because it comes before 1/1/2000. There's no reason to think it's a *predictor*, because the tech aspects are so different. If bad things happen on the GPS rollover, people might think that means Y2k will be bad. If nothing happens re GPS, some will say that means Y2k is a hoax.

Pointless and a bit foolish to tie them together.

-- bw (home@puget.sound), July 30, 1999.

Duh, of course! (smack my forehead). How foolish to tie together a GPS system that banks, powergrids, transporation systems world-wide, etc are dependent on with (now sacred) Y2K. What was I thinkun?

A thousand pardons

-- howdy (foo@foo.com), July 30, 1999.

I think that what bw was trying to point out is that the GPS rollover will very much be a separate animal in its own right, and you cannot really judge the validity of Y2K problems, regardless of what happens. I.E., if there are no GPS problems, that says nothing about Jan 1. If there ARE GPS problems, that still says nothing about Jan 1.

Of course, if there are NO GPS problems, Joe Sixpack will relax even more about Y2K. If there ARE problems, Joe will try to take all his money out of the bank and raid the supermarkets. But thats Joe ... mooooooo!

-- King of Spain (madrid@aol.com), July 30, 1999.

Kos you are such a fool. Like a big cow looking through the fence at all the people and saying to yourself "look at all those poor bastards stuck on the other side of this fence!"

never realizing YOU are the one stuck in the fence and soon to be EATEN.

Jim "Lord of the dance" even says that gps is NBD. why are doomers so stupid?

-- King of Sprain (wh@tan.idiot), July 30, 1999.

Here is a great site that has the equipment and information on possible failures during the GPS rollover and the Y2K rollover

 Year 2000 / GPS Week Rollover Advisory

-- Brian (imager@home.com), July 30, 1999.

thanks for the great link. death to all trolls.

-- howdy (foo@foo.com), July 30, 1999.

[Fair Use: For Educational/Research Purposes Only]

http://www.hotcoco.com/news/business/businessstories/jfm30058.htm

Published on July 29, 1999

Trouble ahead?

* Government expects problems on weekend of Aug. 21-22, when GPS systems have to change their date settings

By Michael Liedtke

TIMES STAFF WRITER

---------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------

For the moment, forget about the Year 2000 computer programming bug. Thousands, if not millions, of high-tech gadgets will very likely become confused about basic matters like the correct time and date in just a few more weeks.

On the weekend of Aug. 21-22, a substantial number of navigation and timing devices widely used in airplanes, boats and automobiles will probably go haywire for an interval lasting anywhere from a few seconds to 15 minutes.

During this relatively brief period of havoc, airplane pilots, ship captains and car drivers could stray off course as receivers designed to provide the precise time of day suddenly start declaring that it's Jan. 6, 1980. Dispatchers responsible for directing truck fleets might lose their bearings. And wireless phone owners might find it difficult to place and receive calls because these same devices play a role in cellular communications.

All this potential trouble could be caused by a little-known technology network called the Global Positioning System, or GPS. The system is composed of 24 satellites positioned 12,000 miles above Earth to transmit data to millions of receivers used by the military and civilians.

Fortunately, any GPS problems that crop up Aug. 21-22 are expected to be short-lived, minimizing the chances for major disruptions in our day-to-day lives. Yet some hiccups in the GPS are considered probable by both government watchdogs and GPS manufacturers that are trying to spread the word about possible breakdowns.

Government warning

"We do expect this to be an event," said John Loveall, director of quality for Sunnyvale-based Trimble Navigation Ltd., a leading manufacturer of GPS receivers. "We are doing everything we can to minimize the risks. Our general advice (to GPS users) is don't blindly rely on the advice that the receiver is giving (on Aug. 21- 22)."

The U.S. Department of Transportation last month issued a warning that "consumers who depend on GPS for geographic locations at sea, on land or in the air may experience  problems with their receiver" on Aug. 21-22.

The GPS troubles are totally unrelated to the Year 2000, or Y2K, bug, which refers to a computer's inability to distinguish between the years 1900 and 2000. But the underlying cause of this problem is similar to the Y2K bug. The GPS doesn't have enough computing capacity to recognize a date beyond a certain threshold.

GPS satellites keep track of time by counting off weeks in sequential order starting with the number 0. Here's the rub: The satellites, which began their weekly count on Jan. 6, 1980, have only enough computing power to count up to 1,023. After Week No. 1,023, the satellites will reset to 0 in an event known as the "Week Number Rollover," or WNRO. The WNRO will occur just before 5 p.m. PDT (that's just before midnight, Coordinated Universal Time) on Aug. 21.

The U.S. military believes the GPS satellites will handle the rollover just fine, but manufacturers expect some garble to occur in many of the receivers that translate the data. Some of the receivers might suddenly flash the date Jan. 6, 1980. Others might provide bogus information about locations. Still other devices might simply shut down briefly after the rollover because they no longer speak the same technological language as the satellites that serve as the system's brains.

At the same time, a huge number of GPS receivers may handle the WNRO without a glitch.

Older GPS receivers are considered the most prone to WNRO trouble, but newer models aren't invulnerable to the problem.

Hidden receivers

Manufacturers are urging GPS receiver owners to check whether their devices can handle the upcoming WNRO. In many cases, potential problems can be repaired with a simple upgrade. A comprehensive list of GPS manufacturers, along with their WNRO updates, is available on the Internet at www.navcen.uscg.mil/gps/geninfo/y2k/gpsmanufacturers/manufacturers.htm l. Information about a GPS receiver's WNRO fitness also may be obtained by calling the federal government's Y2K hot line, 888-872- 4925.

Sheer numbers virtually assure the WNRO won't be trouble-free. The U.S. Department of Commerce estimates that between 10 million to 15 million GPS receivers are in use worldwide. Manufacturers are worried that a large number of the devices' operators still aren't familiar with the WNRO issue.

It doesn't help that GPS receivers are embedded in some equipment, meaning many people might not even realize they are dependent on the devices until they break down.

GPS receivers, for instance, are used by both cellular phone companies and electric utilities. If the GPS receivers fail in these uses, the cellular and electric providers will probably have back-up systems that will assure continued service, Trimble's Loveall said.

The receivers also have become an increasingly common piece of equipment in newer model cars, which use them to produce electronic maps. In some cars, GPS receivers are installed as part in the circuitry of air bags to send out alerts pinpointing the location of a vehicle involved in an accident. The automobile industry estimates that GPS receivers are installed in about 80,000 vehicles nationwide.

Dress rehearsal

The concerns about GPS receivers are serious enough to prompt some industry observers to describe the weekend of Aug. 21-22 as a "dress rehearsal" for what might happen Jan. 1, 2000, to businesses and households that haven't inoculated themselves against the Y2K bug.

"We are going to be carefully watching what happens on that weekend," said Jon Huntress, an associate producer for Year2000.com, a Web site that has been tracking Y2K issues since 1995. "If there are significant problems with the GPS, then it could make people work even harder to fix Y2K problems. If nothing happens, everyone will probably just yawn and say everyone was crying wolf again."

Aug. 21-22 also will serve as a dress rehearsal for the next time that the calendar of GPS satellites rolls over to 0 on April 6, 2019.

---------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------

Michael Liedtke is a staff writer and columnist. Reach him at 925- 943-8088, or mliedtke@cctimes.com.

-- Linkmeister (link@librarian.edu), July 30, 1999.

I think that the GPS rollover is important. Y2K is about the year part of date fields rolling over to 00. The GPS rollover is about a date field (week counter) rolling over to 00.

I look at the GPS rollover as being a subset of the embedded systems Y2K rollover. I am not expecting any major problems with the GPS rollover. GPS manufacturers were aware of the problem and many of them took the rollover into consideration when the build their new models.

But how many organizations that use GPS are aware of the rollover and how many are prepared to deal with the potential problems that the rollover might cause? This includes not only identifying and fixing the problem, but also having contingency plans in place. I believe that if there are any significant problems when the GPS rollover occurs, then the Y2K embedded systems rollover will be much worse.

This is the event that I have been waiting for to determine whether I will resort to contingency plan C or continue concentrating on contingency plans A and B.

-- B.K. Myers (B.K.Myers@cwix.com), July 30, 1999.

For what it's worth (I have no opinion on whether or not the GPS rollover would cause noticeable problems), here's an article by Dick Mills on the GPS and the grid:

http://www.y2ktimebomb.com/PP/RC/dm9849.htm

"Another Myth, We Need Computers To Synchronize"

-- Linkmeister (link@librarian.edu), July 30, 1999.

The Datum Co. site that Brian suggests, from a few posts up, shows that for either GPS or Y2K upgrades ARE needed for a variety of GPS products. Trimble Navigation also says as much.

Dick Mills is a waffler/muddler, middle-of-the-road, small picture techno-boob.

Detroit Edison is stockpiling 6-9 months worth of coal. I guess they don't expect problems....

-- PJC (paulchri@msn.com), July 30, 1999.

If a bank or utilitiy...or other major corporation has not yet remediated their GPS problems (for whatever reason), it is highly likely that they have not yet remediated their (far more complex) Y2K problems. In that sense, August 21-22 could well be a precurser of Y2K. I don't plan on flying over the rollover, but would be willing to be at sea (or by a radio) to help anyone come in to port who can navigate ONLY by GPS...with a faulty unit.

-- Mad Monk (madmonk@hawaiian.net), July 30, 1999.

Keep in mind that organizations won't be real happy to admit that they've had a GPS problem...so any glitches may be blamed on other (prefereably non-Y2K) problems...

-- Mad Monk (madmonk@hawaiian.net), July 30, 1999.

The actual rollover will occur in the US during the afternoon/evening of Saturday August 21st (about 6PM CDT). Some speculation has this event interfering with banking transfers, but how many of these occur on weekends? If navigation errors occur, there are still other means of navigation available. I would expect media coverage to alert most pilots to the possibility. I'm sceptical that the power grid depends on GPS time -- it existed before GPS and has its own frequency for synchronization. The power grid has run electric clocks for decades with fair accuracy.

I expect that any problems associated with the GPS rollover will be correctable without alerting the public at large. GPS is relatively new so at least at this point the impact will be relatively low compared to possible problems due to Y2K. I think the big problem will be that it has been advertised as a precursor to Y2K and people will become complacent when no reported problems occur.

I have a GPS handheld (which the manufacturer states is capable of handling the rollover) and I plan to be watching what it does.

-- Mikey2k (mikey2k@he.wont.eat.it), July 30, 1999.

GPS is used also in the cellular phone protocol Cdma-One (Code Divison Multiple Access). IMT-2000 and the majority of people on the standards working groups in the industry have been against using GPS in future generation protocols due to the age and access difficulty of the satellites. It's a little cheaper to use than ground based timers, but most engineers involved in next generation design feel the small cost differential is not worth the potential headache, since ground-based timing works just fine.

Naturally, the U.S. government stepped into the fray to support the patent holder of Cdma against the logic of the rest of the world's engineers and bullied the acceptance of a second standard. The U.S. cellular phone technology is far behind the rest of the world and that inferior technology should not be shoved down the throats of the world (the 'Microsoft Principle').

Anyway, a couple of analogies to y2k from GPS rollover are valid from the standpoint of product, company and personal preparedness. The analogies are limited though and don't cover the scope of y2k.

-- Everyone knew both events would occur, but some companies continued to sell products that wouldn't work after the rollover. Some did it out of stupidity and some because they didn't care and knew they could 'deal' with the consequences later. (Liability protection laws...)

A good example of corporate stupidity was Pioneer's car navigation model that does not handle the rollover. This one model was purchased by about 200,000 people and the company has fixed about two-thirds at no expense to the users. The other third of users have yet to get their units fixed. The human tendancy toward procrastination and stupidity, for waiting this long, is universal. (Stupidity is an equal oppportunity thing...)

-- GPS is used by some banks and financial networks for transaction recording. How well did they prepare and plan their back-up for this event? We will probably find out that some stupid people are employed by banks.

-- Power-grid 'sychronization' does not require GPS. Will some unanticipated data link cause a problem? I hope not, but life is full of surprises. How we handle them is the fun part.

But... GPS timing is a real-time activity. The time differentials between ground receivers and the satellites are not like stored data that must fight it's way through compliant applications long after the data is input. The algorithms using GPS data quickly discard the data and move on to new data to fill the parameters. And that is why GPS rollover may have some analogies to y2k, but y2k will be much more 'fun.'

-- PNG (Peter Gauthier) (png@gol.com), July 30, 1999.

This may have been alluded to, but I didn't see it specifically stated: The number of GPS units is incredibly small compared to Lines of code that needs to be examined for Y2K problems, and relatively easy to fix. For the most part you can work/fix a single unit at a time, and they don't really depend on each other (not very interconnected).

I think 10 million GPs units was mentioned --- how many lines of code did the IRS need to check .... 400 million? And the manufacturers for the most part have specific fixes available. So there may be GPS problems, but the scale is so comparatively small, that analogies to Y2K are weak, except that even though it CAN be fixed, some (many?) wont be.

-- Jon Johnson (narnia4@usa.net), July 30, 1999.

Bringing it home, just realized this afternoon that the 21st I will be cooking and helping out at the local bar for a party of HOG's and wannabees & hangers-on finishing a charity run. We are planning to have over 100 people eating into the evening and then a live band till 1:30.

Could prove interesting. Will have a generator on hand, JIC.

Hopefully gas won't be so expensive here in California that even bikers can afford a 250 mile road trip. Let's all raise our glasses and give a toast to our hidden taxes and to the continuing saga of exploding refineries. ;-}

-- Mitchell Barnes (spanda@inreach.com), July 31, 1999.

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-- (?@?.!), August 21, 1999.