OK, OK, OK...

IN THEORY, ALL CONTINGENCY PLANS WILL ULTIMATELY FAIL, unless the entity that develops the contingency, has an end point planned into the contingency, and adapts to that end.

You gotta know what you are getting into...

Unfortunately, 010100 has no end point detector. There are no past case studies for this topic; there is no recent history. With everyone involved in remediation having a legal gag order to keep from being sued, you will not get accurate, relevant information from organizations or companies you have a vested interest in, or any other for that matter. So that pretty much shoots "normal" contingency plans in the foot, IMHO.

So, what if TSHTF??? If anarchy rules as king in the 21st. century, and you do not get back to nature, adapt accordingly, you will cease to exist. In a draconian world, only the strong, and the canny survive. One of the most frightening things I have ever done is imagine what kind of life would exist if modern infrastructure was no longer an option.

I hope and pray there is minimal displacement of modern society in the next couple of years. I DO believe we could use some major adjustments to our federal govern ment though. It is no longer "by the people, for the people", it is a burden on the backs of the people. The "ME" syndrome and "political correctness" are destroying us as a planet, not just a country. You cannot tell anyone they are wrong anymore; no one is accountable for their actions.

Short-sighted people do not look to the future and anticipate what might come to pass... The average Joe Twelve-pack has no plans other than what they are told to do via television or newspaper. Lying has almost become "sport" in American society. What makes you think I am going to believe ANYBODY? Especially large corporations or our beloved federal government? I am hardly short-sighted. I have contingency plans for the next 5 years, whether 010100 goes off with a bang or not.

So, what are YOUR contingency plans? Or, are YOU short-sighted?

What are you "bringing to the party"? If you had to exist in a more primitive lifestyle than you do today, what would be your "justification for existence"?

head tilted questioningly....

The Dog

-- Dog (Desert Dog@-sand.com), July 30, 1999

Answers

Dog, My justification for existence is that God put me here. I understand what you are saying, but I'm just trying to point out that we are not here for reasons of mere survival. In fact,survival isn't the real issue whatsoever. Of course we must adapt to a different set of circumstances. That's coming. But it's not our raison d'etre by any means and please don't judge people on that basis. The most valuable person I know is elderly, diabetic, and mostly physically disabled.

-- Mara Wayne (MaraWayne@aol.com), July 30, 1999.

how many can live off the land?-or how many would even try?

-- yuz=heavy. (dogs@zianet.com), July 30, 1999.

I am not judging anybody, I am merely pointing out the facts of a post-modern draconian society. I like it no more than anyone. Yes, Al- d the subject is heavy, very heavy in fact. It is sad, but true.

The warlords of 10th. century ruled with an iron fist an took what they wanted. Yes, there was a fraction of the population there is today. Post-modernism is a nightmare to current, soft understanding.

Here is a question for you:

If this present crisis is sadly underestimated, what will become of me?

The post is asking about contingency, and are you prepared for the worst, if it happens. There is always a possibility. I am praying constantly a drastic change of life is not on the horizon.

Lon, could we get you to give us some of your thoughts on the matter?

This is a strictly theoretical thought process. Think "out of the box". If the world as we know it goes asunder, this will be the thought processes required. Regardless of religion, are you ready to meet your Creator, if need be?

Mr. Decker? Diane? Will continue? Andy??? Anyone?

pondering getting a drink...

The Dog

-- Dog (Desert Dog@-sand.com), July 30, 1999.

I think your question may not be valid...

Ready or not, we ALL *WILL*, sooner or later....

"Are you ready" is meaningless, IMHO.

-- Dennis (djolson@pressenter.com), July 30, 1999.

Dennis, no offense guy, but you are "still in the box".

This is not an easy subject for anyone, at all.

sniffin'...

The Dog

-- Dog (Desert Dog@-sand.com), July 30, 1999.

Dog:

A somber subject. I've studied "primitive" techniques of living for most of my life. A bit heavy on the book side and light on the hands on some years, but a lot of the knowledge is there.

The problem is, the resources are not there. Our lakes and rivers are NOT full of 10 to 100 pound catfish. Our forests do not have an average of one black bear per square mile. Our elk and buffalo, for all intents and purposes, are gone.

I know edible plants, I know many, many edible mushrooms, I can construct simple shelters. If I had to go into any random stretch of my current state (Michigan), even if I was guaranteed no interference from any human being, and survive simply using the land's resources, I would rate my chances of surviving a full year at no more than 50%. It would depend on when I started and where I was.

The only hope, in the event of a 10+ scenario, lies with agriculture. The greatest danger lies with "takers".

This is an area in which Ken Decker and I are in complete agreement. Barring effective fortifications or extremely hostile territory to retreat into (given the probable high numbers of heavy weapons and explosives that will likely be available in a case such as this, even fortifications are probably futile), the odds are with the attacker. They can choose the place and time of the attack, they can hang back and pick off homesteaders one at a time.

Realistically, in a 10+ world, there will only be, in my opinion, three possible survival modes:

A. A hunter/gatherer lifestyle, such that all you have that might be of interest to anyone are the people themselves, as slaves.

B. Living in a "free" community, large enough to support a trained militia or even a small "standing" force. It might be necessary to hold external territory in a tributary state (see C., below) to provide some protective barrier to the home territory.

This may not a stable situation, since the politics in a 10+ society (I mean outside your little group, as well as inside), are likely to be quite deadly. Very Machivellian, very convoluted, very mercenary.

C. Overlords. Whether they be Mafioso, military remnants, bands of desperate survivors, whatever. To me, this is the most likely scenario. A group of these types takes control of an area, going from the status of raiders to overlords by offering "protection" in exchange for tribute, taxes, whatever you want to call it.

This has been played out endlessly in our history. In order to survive, to buy the chance of survival for your family, you bend the knee to those who are stronger than you, that can hurt or kill you. It isn't pretty, but it has been the way of our kind for all of known history.

Sorry, I'm in a grim mood today. Too much Y2K, too little of it good.

But, look inside yourselves. Ask yourself if, given the choice of living at a near poverty level with your family or dying fighting an almost hopeless, outnumbered battle against raiders who will kill you, gang rape your wife/daughter, maybe kill your whole family because you chose to fight, what *truly* do you think you will do?

Sorry, that is the reality of the 10+ world. There will be predators and there will be prey. You can be both, just at different times.

-- Jon Williamson (jwilliamson003@sprintmail.com), July 30, 1999.

Jon, thanks for the post. I agree with you and Mr. Decker completely. Raising the train of thought is necessary, whether you are a bunkered doomer with 1,000,000 rounds of .223, and ten years of freeze-dried food, or you have two weeks of food and water and live on the 20th floor of a high-rise in NYC.

Prozac anyone???

watchin' my master clean his .45...

The Dog

-- Dog (Desert Dog@-sand.com), July 30, 1999.

I hate to say it, but, given the choice, I'm not sure I wouldn't take the raider path myself.....

Look at the choices

A. Tied to a small plot of land, working long hours every day, year round, only to see the best of what I produced taken from me, no real rights, no real way to protect my family.

B.The "fear/rush" of battle (no, I'm not a vet, I'm talking without experience here, just booklearning), the swagger and bravado of having someone to lord it over, the ability to have somewhat more than most, the right to "bully" the peasants, the chance of rising to command yourself, if you play your cards right and are ruthless enough. At the least, more likely to have more and better food to eat, beer/wine/liquor, and women. What else do raiders fight for, anyway?

Again, think about it, folks? Are you a pirate or a peasant?

The only person who needs to know the answer is you........

-- Jon Williamson (jwilliamson003@sprintmail.com), July 30, 1999.

At the risk of killing the thread here, I'd like to recommend Akira Kurosawa's films such as "The Seven Samurai". My family has enjoyed the stories of farmers, out of work warriors and others coming to terms with human nature under extreme challenge. Very entertaining, and thought provoking.

-- flora (***@__._), July 30, 1999.

Why do you think that the discussion revolves around forming groups and retreat alliances (no spell checker, get over it)?? [have you done this yet, Chuck?/ I'll get back to you].

Quite clearly, survival is going to be a group effort. The group MUST be large enough to support itself, AND a defense force. Numbers? As an academic exercise, while I was waiting for a client to come out of a party on one of the "estates" hereabouts, I looked at the estate, and worked out what it would take to defend it and make it survivable, as a neo-medieval manor. 72 effectives plus 8 HQ types, it's aBIG estate and the threat may be at any time. Each with a family, at least one sig other (only one effective per family, probably NOT a good assumption) who does the gardening, with 20% gpoing to the Manor Seed Storage, 20% to the manor table, 20% to the Master, and 40% to the family. Manor feeds one meal a day for effectives and families. Manor handles protean (cows) herded by some of the families. Specific jobs on manor require additional families, say a total of 25 people. So far, we're talking about housing 200 people. And supporting same.

the numbers are TOUGH!!

got village??

chuck

For those in NEOhio, the Bolton Estate was the prototype.

-- Chuck, a night driver (rienzoo@en.com), July 30, 1999.

Chuck:

I'm not sure I saw any reference to children in those numbers. If you figure any male over the age of 15-16 as part of the defense force, and other children as part of the labor force (herding, gardening, cleaning, whatever), you may drop those numbers some.

Or you may have to increase them. I do agree with your estimate of only about 40% going to the ones who own the land.

Do you also feel that this "overlord" situation is likely to become the most prevalent in a 10+?

-- Jon Williamson (jwilliamson003@sprintmail.com), July 30, 1999.

I don't think it's clear that groups/bands/raiding parties will necessarily develop right away. When people realize what has happened when TSHTF, there will simply be mass rioting and looting for a long time. Everyone will pretty much be out for themselves for a long while. Only after people have simply become "burned out" from killing so many strangers, friends, women, and children, will groups start to form. This could be several months or even longer, when enough people have been killed to create a more controllable population.

The theories that society will somehow "devolve" in a nice orderly fashion down to some sort of feudal society or whatever doesn't really make sense. The Y2K problem is, by nature, sudden and all- encompassing. It will hit with full force from day one, all over the globe. The most logical result is chaos, not order. Warlords won't be able to exist until enough people have died and the "society", such as it is, is stabilized. It's going to be a lot more difficult to survive in the chaos, than in anything that might occur afterwards.

-- (its@coming.soon), July 30, 1999.

Amen its...

I am still waiting for a response from Mr. Decker, Andy, Will continue, Lisa... Big Dog, are you sleepin'? Im gonna bite your tail... Old Git this might be a little much for you, or Gilda.

I don't often post new questions, bacuse I am usually too busy to watch the thread form. This is fun.......; )

Got realism???

hoping for a 1,

gettin' fiesty...

The Dog

-- Dog (Desert Dog@-sand.com), July 30, 1999.

It's coming:

Sorry, I didn't mean to imply that would happen overnight. I do think that gangs and organized crime of various flavors will take an early lead in the raiding and protection racket. They already play that game, after all. Nothing new.

However, I also believe that loose bands (3-?) of raiders/bandits will form quite early. If only because we all have to sleep sometime. Most will not last long, through death/disease/injury, basic instability, mistrust, etc.

Some will evolve, with decent leadership, into more permanent groups. Feudalism was not static, it was in a state of constant flux as power ebbed and flowed between various groups.

-- Jon Williamson (jwilliamson003@sprintmail.com), July 30, 1999.

Shift happens... daily.

Being spiritually prepared to DIE, is THE end game, leading to a new beginning, IMHO.

If you can accept that gracefully, then you are prepared to think about living... gracefully... too. Y2K or not.

Thats why I refuse to consider getting a gun, or living in fear about what will/might/could happen... locally... for the upcoming 2000 and beyond events. The idea of creating community, even if its last- minute community, with my neighbors and town members, has way more appeal than creating bunker contingencies. If the choice were that, frankly... I rather cross over.

Face your fear of death, and youve passed a major preparedness hurdle.

That said, the best contingency is planning to go camping at home. Basics required... food, heat, cooking, water, sanitary, etc. Be prepared to move if necessary (raging fires come to mind) and camp out of your car. Be prepared to go it on foot or bicycle and camp lightly. Beyond that... trust your intuition and gut-guidance... and plan on using it as your main Y2K contingency plan.

Plan to accept your life and livlihood shifting radically. Or not.

KISS... Keep It Simple...

Because it can be.

Diane

(And dont forget to pat the dog and cuddle the kitty-cats... they can camp out too).

;-D

-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), July 30, 1999.

Diane:

Agreed, in part. We all die. I will die. I may not make it home alive tonight.

In another area, however, with no disrespect intended, if impolite persons insist on speeding up the moment of my death, I intend to take an honor guard to hell with me.

-- Jon Williamson (jwilliamson003@sprintmail.com), July 30, 1999.

Dianne...you got it! None of us are getting out alive. But if you are real lucky you might get to choose an honorable death. One thing I haven't seen on this thread is any concerns on how the "government" will respond. It may be shaken quite hard for awhile, but rest assured they will try very hard to get total control within a few months. This may be the only time we will get to prepare for the right to remain free. It's going to take a lot more than isolated survivalists. We've got to get as many "Patriots" prepared as possible or we will all end up slaves.

-- steve (steve@NWMo.com), July 30, 1999.

Dog, I'm not al-d. But I am here serving a function that neither you nor I might understand. Each existence has a value that you cannot calculate.

And Diane is right, ain't no one gonna make it out of here alive. What do you consider exit with honor? Yes, I'm prepping and hope to make it through, but I'm also aware of the reality that I might not. What am I bringing to the party? Maybe it's something you can't conceive of or value--I'm not saying that in a dismissive way, but it is possible, you know. Maybe something that even you can't recognize will rise from the ashes. Surely we didn't expect this thing a decade ago and maybe where we're at 10 years from now will be a surprise, too. You talk about thinking out of the box, but you're thinking within a Mad Max framework. For sure there are bound to be some people like that because there are already, but there are other possibilities, a quantum change, totally not from a box we currrently recognize.

-- Mara Wayne (MaraWayne@aol.com), July 30, 1999.

LOL... Jon! ...I intend to take an honor guard to hell with me.

Mara,

My Y2K box includes the expectation of marvelous and wonderful miracles. Or not. At least the box top isnt closed to em. Or else I'll just end up in a completely new luminescent box. Or not.

;-D

Diane

-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), July 30, 1999.

Agreed, in part. We all die. I will die. I may not make it home alive tonight.

In another area, however, with no disrespect intended, if impolite persons insist on speeding up the moment of my death, I intend to take an honor guard to hell with me.

Right on, Jon!

The issue isn't really whether we accept death or not, we're going to die regardless. Still, I see no reason why I should let myself be killed in January any more than letting myself starve or freeze or die of thirst. Everyone is different, obviously, and there are those who would rather die than kill. Unfortunately, they will most likely get their wish.

However, if one is resigned to ones fate and simply chooses to live a certain way regardless of how Y2K turns out, then that pretty much describes the opinion of many of the Pollys who haven't prepared at all. In reality, there's not much of a difference - if you're not prepared, you're gonna die.

-- (its@coming.soon), July 30, 1999.

Mara,

Mad max was the very LAST thought I had. I am merely try to get people to THINK. And everyone who has posted is doing a wonderful job. I did not mean to offend or anger anyone, and I hope you do not think bad of me because of what I post. The thought that originated this post has been wandering in and out of my conscienceness for months now.

I was trying to get people to think about, "what if it does go infomagic or milne?" Trying to get a modern American to think about scavenging for food, having to shoot and kill an intruder, burying dead loved ones, giving fealty to a warlord, etc... It just does not register to most people in America. We as a society are dependant on modern infrastructure.

Who knows? We may get visited by aliens next week, (talk about out of the box) or horror of horrors, some body might just detonate a nuclear device somewhere in the US. These topics are spoken of all the time. Atlanta... blasted his own family. That is monstrous!!!! It is a sad state of affairs, but seen and talked about daily. But talk to anyone on the street about having to bury loved ones or swear fealty to an overlord, and ZOOM, off they go, running away from the obvious mental ward escapee. Do you see what I am saying???

Think away from the norm...

We are about to embark on a change. 010100 will be a change. Now if we could just figure out HOW MUCH change.....

gettin' a drink...

The Dog

-- Dog (Desert Dog@-sand.com), July 30, 1999.

If you were to become a tyrant, a slave owner, a pirate, or such. I recommend that you put more miles between you and me than there are today. Or you better shoot me dead from a long distance. If you miss and it is TEOTWAWKI, I'm just going to assume that God will not save you... from me.

Cheers! Stan Faryna

-- Stan Faryna (info@giglobal.com), July 30, 1999.

Dog, I am truly honored and humbled that you should ask my thoughts on this scenario. As you know from our previous discussions, I am putting most of my eggs into another basket, but I do consider the possibility of Post-Y2K chaos, and therefore, have some ideas, however random they may be. Ill scare up a few,and run them by you all, forgive me if they are not fully jelled:

 As to feudalism. We in North America have our entire history based upon the rights and freedoms of the individual. This has been instilled into us at every turn in our education. I believe that it will be decades or even generations before such a firmly stylized concept as feudalism could take place. I believe commune-like society would be more suited to our immediate situation. If this scenario comes to pass, it may be very difficult to accept the leadership of others, or to become leaders ourselves. Perhaps groups may form of autonomous individuals, with a cadre of leaders, based upon their record of good judgement, or skill, of charisma.

Also, for those contemplating fuedelistic society, remember, the master of the manor had a vested interest in keeping the serfs happy. The system only worked where everyone know his/her place, and was somewhat secure in it.

 As to wars, roving bands, warlords, etc. We certainly have the technical capacity for it, but I think, Hollywood notwithstanding, that few of us are emotionally prepared to carry on long-term lethal confrontations. Primitive societies very seldom fought to the death. They simply could not afford the death of a warrior who was also a provider. Amerindian women tore their hair and slashed their arms upon the loss of their men, partly in grief for the fallen, and partly because they realized it likely meant their deaths as well. It takes an efficient civilization to support professional soldiers.

Perhaps, I could see more armed conflict occurring in rank-and-file citizenry, if we were fighting green men with square heads. But the horrible truth will be that every time we look over our gunsights we sill see someone who looks just like ourselves, our dad, mom, brother, child. I just dont envision it. People would undoubtedly die of violence, but more would die of circumstance. The true killers would be the same ones we have faced throughout history; hunger, dysentery, cholera, pneumonia, ignorance. And sometimes, just being in the wrong place at the wrong time.

The wild card. If youve read all of the above, and think that I may actually know something, youre mistaken. Should we have Y2K meltdown of civilization, it will be like no other event in history. And therefore, may not follow any patterns of history. We would have an incredible divergence of technology and knowledge. We would have the understanding and the hardware for twenty-first century weapons, while trying to subsist in a sixteenth century agro-economy. I have a small wind generator. This simple device would have an incredible affect on my survival, comfort, prosperity, status, and recovery. Like any other of my preparations, it could also get me killed.

Sorry for the length of this post, but the nearness of Y2K, and the amount of totally polarized infromation we're getting today, is forcing me to, as you say, "think out of the box". Please remember, the above is just imagination, I still believe we as a people may be ignorant when it comes to Y2K, but I believe we are neither stupid, nor evil. I think we will see the best in ourselves, I just hope that's good enough.

Good thread, dog, wishing you and us all, the best.

Lon

-- Lon Frank (lgal@exp.net), July 30, 1999.

(1) Most contingency plans have an end-point similar to the current situation. Mine has a path that will return to a society similar to the present...eventually. Among other things, this means that I must consider the future (not running up credit cards, expecting that the bills will go uncollected, not committing other crimes, etc.), and that government processes will continue or be reestablished...at a relatively early time.

(2) I also plan for the possibility of a very different situation... Food locally grown (for the most part), using tractors converted to alcohol fuel, bicycles, minimal community electric service, etc. This road, in the case of Kaua'i, could still maintain about the current population...with a WHOLE lot of sweat. The conversion process would be difficult. While this road is NOT my desired outcome, I am still preparing for the possibility. It is interesting to note that the County Y2K preparedness committee is exploring such areas as alcohol fuel production, converting cars to alcohol, etc. In such a case, local law will probably be reestablished or evolve.

(3) In a "Seven Samurai" scenario, farmer-warriers (or warrier-farmers, if you will) need to band together, presenting a united front against criminals (similar to what today's society should be doing...). It is difficult for one or two adults to adequately defend...a larger force allows posting sentries and covering each other's backs. This implies a society (which, in turn, implies laws by whatever name).

-- Mad Monk (madmonk@hawaiian.net), July 30, 1999.

I think the Milne 10 thread (url below) would be good reading as follow-up on this thread:

http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=000vN7

Sincerely, Stan Faryna

-- Stan Faryna (info@giglobal.com), July 30, 1999.

Mad Monk,

Ah, but that was the rub. The peasants didn't have the professional protectors, so had to go to town and observe likely prospects. Once assembled, arriving at the village -- the farmers didn't trust them. And that was just for starters!

The Seven Samurai was translated by Pekinpah into the Magnificent Seven. Kurosawa's Hidden Fortress was translated into Star Wars by Lucas. See the originals. Many public libraries have them on the shelf. The Shadow Warrior has a bit about aqueducts that got my attention. If you are considering human frailties, as you should be when you ponder strengths, take a short & entertaining trip through an old movie. Your DWGI spouse & kids will enjoy it on another level.

-- flora (***@__._), July 30, 1999.

Stan:

Jolly good comeback!!

However, looked at as I stated it, many WILL be tempted. And a little scouting will help avoid hardened targets......

Seriously, before this flames up, I believe I'm a builder, not a destroyer. But think about the ending to Woodstock '99. All is not well in our country.

-- Jon Williamson (pssomerville@sprintmail.com), July 30, 1999.

Not to be a wet blanket on you hunter/gatherers---BUT,

Diane & I had our first go-ound about this many moons ago. Central CA had the densest population north of Mexico-- pre-european, due to the habitat/wildlife.

Nowadays if you compare the prehistoric population beween Big Sur & San Francisco it would fit into a tenth of the silicon valley that sits in between.

This is not taking into account the habitat loss of edible species of plants and animals. Even if we had the knowledge, the old 'infrastructure' is not ample enough to support us.

-- flora (***@__._), July 30, 1999.

Flora:

Thank you for backing up my earlier post. Even with the knowledge, the needed biomass is not there. The balance of edible species, such as was found in California (edible acorns), is gone.

Farming, anyone?

-- Jon Williamson (pssomerville@sprintmail.com), July 31, 1999.

"This is a strictly theoretical thought process. Think "out of the box". If the world as we know it goes asunder, this will be the thought processes required. Regardless of religion, are you ready to meet your Creator, if need be?"

I'm with Mara on this one.

I'm just passin' through.

To be serious for a minute, that's what you want isn't it DDog, I have no philosophical fear of death. I know it's not "the end" :)

Having said that, despite this veil of tears we live in, despite the fact that this orb is going to hell in a handbasket, despite the fact that the vast majority of humanity IS suffering, I'd still like to stay on said orb, tough it out and try and make it a better place.

Quite frankly, this y2k lark has put life in sublime perspective for me - it's a little heretical to say this on this forum but here goes - at this point in time I'm beyond caring, I believe it's pretty much a done deal.

If it's a two - great, superb, let's get on with life.

If it's a nine or ten, oh dear, not so great - however I WILL deal with it, when the time comes.

Not much more I can do - I've basically faced up to my fear, I'm way beyond THAT now - I believe it's no accident that we're all here, now, at this point in time.

Let the games begin :)

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), July 31, 1999.

Thank you everyone for your replies to an unpleasant subject... I don't feel so disconnected with what I think. DGI's I have spoken to in casual conversation can't even "wrap their brains around the concept" of EOTW...

As eyes_open would say, "watch six". And Like Andy said, "let the games begin"....

Life is about to change, to what extent is the question....

gettin a drink...

The Dog

-- The Dog (Desert Dog@-sand.com), July 31, 1999.