greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread

Government's top Y2K expert predicts failures for more than a day 4.42 p.m. ET (2043 GMT) July 29, 1999 By Ted Bridis, Associated Press

WASHINGTON (AP)  Computer failures related to the Year 2000 technology problem could extend well beyond New Year's Day, President Clinton's top Y2K expert said Thursday.

Although John Koskinen predicted a national "sigh of relief'' in the early hours of Jan. 1, he also anticipates scattered electronic failures over the first days, weeks and even months of the new year.

Koskinen, chairman of the President's Council on Year 2000 Conversion, said in an interview with The Associated Press that some failures may not become obvious until the end of January, the first time after the date rollover that consumers review their monthly bank statements, credit-card bills and other financial paperwork.

"It won't evaporate until after that,'' Koskinen said. "Clearly, this is more than a January 1 problem.'' But he also slightly hedged his predictions: "None of us are really going to know until after January 1.''

Unless repaired, some computers originally programmed to recognize only the last two digits of a year will not work properly beginning in 2000, when those machines will assume it is 1900.

Some computer systems may shut down quickly with obvious failures, and others may gradually experience subtle problems or degraded performance that may take weeks to notice.

"The more difficult problem will be where the system looks like it's doing it correctly but it's doing it all wrong,'' Koskinen said.

Some failures won't be recognized until the work week starts Jan. 3, as employees return to their offices and turn on their computers for the first time.

Repaired computers also will need to recognize 2000 as a leap year, even though most years ending in "00'' don't need to adjust for Feb. 29, he said.

A new $40 million Information Coordination Center being organized down the street from the White House will operate until March, sharing information about failures with states, federal agencies, corporations and foreign governments.

Koskinen urged people to prepare for possible trouble as they might for a winter storm or a hurricane: Buy flashlights and batteries, keep enough cash, food and water for several days and make copies of financial and medical records.

But he also cautioned against stockpiling supplies, which could lead to local shortages, or draining bank accounts, which could strain the nation's financial system.

"If we get a couple hundred million Americans doing anything differently, we're going to create economic problems,'' he said.

An AP poll this month found most Americans don't expect major problems, but nearly one-third plan to stock up on food, water and other supplies. About one-quarter of Americans planned to withdraw cash in case of trouble.

Koskinen predicted the most widespread problems will occur in developing nations that were slow to begin repair work. He named certain regions that recently suffered financial problems, including Southeast Asia, Eastern Europe and Russia. But he acknowledged that parts of Africa, Central America, South America and the Caribbean also were likely to suffer.

"Clearly, some of the developing countries of the world are going to have some difficulties,'' he said, adding that only 25 to 30 of the world's nations were well prepared. "Many more countries are going to have problems than not.''

The State Department will begin issuing travel advisories in September for U.S. citizens about which countries to avoid.

Koskinen also disclosed that the U.S. government will consider evacuating American citizens from countries with widespread failures. He said each U.S. ambassador will make that decision.

-- Da-Bomb (Pollys_and _trolls_eat@this.com), July 29, 1999


Normally I would not respond to a post generated by someone with a very strange "handle" but I sense something significant in the quote--if indeed it is an accurate quote--by Koskinen,

"If we get a couple hundred million Americans doing anything differently, we're going to create economic problems,'' he said.

Could be a clue as to why Paloma O'Riley's mantra "Preparedness is always prudent" has essentially not been broadcast widely.

Then again, I ALWAYS reserve the right to be wrong. . .


-- FM (vidprof@aol.com), July 29, 1999.

More polly drivel. Da-Bomb is probably cpr or Super Troll or some other troll.

-- Enuf Is Enuf (Enug@fed.up), July 29, 1999.

The non-believers and trolls need to move on. The BIG GUY on Y2k must be a DOOMER???? Right????

The only thing is----Koskinen still says to prepare for a three day storm..... Then why is the Information Coordination Center scheduled to operate until at least March.

WATCH WHAT THEY DO, NOT WHAT THEY SAY----and prepare accordingly!!!!!

-- cb (the_big_one@speaks.com), July 29, 1999.


Either you are blind and can't read, or just plain stupid. Read the friggin' article instead of attacking the messenger. It is obvious by your response that you are blind, illiterate and stupid.

-- X-man (-@-.-), July 29, 1999.

Da-Bomb's post is legit. I found a shorter version on a local TV news site.

-- Old Git (anon@spamproblems.com), July 29, 1999.

Git, I'm not saying that the article is legit, I'm just saying that he is still spewing forth the same pollyanna nonsense. X-man go back to the polly forum where you belong.

-- Enuf is Enuf (Enuf@fed.up), July 29, 1999.

The article's most definitely legit. (Didn't I TELL you guys this was gonna be a significant hearing? Hee. hee.) Here's the link:

Gov't. Y2K Expert Predicts Failures


-- FM (vidprof@aol.com), July 29, 1999.


Remember this?

"...when you say everybody should get a pound of beans, you've got to understand if 200 million Americans all decide to go out and buy beans, I can guarantee there are not beans in the process to start accumulating it at that rate."

John Koskinen, Y2K: The Press and Preventing Panic, March 10, 1999 (Radio Broadcast)

-- mabel (mabel_louise@yahoo.com), July 29, 1999.


I think this is a significant and important article. It debunks all of the polly's arguments. I still disagree with Koskinen's three day scenario, but this article says alot more than this/his myopic statement/lie. Not everybody is a troll----Hell from what I've read from you in this thread, I would conclude you are the troll/disrupter.

-- cb (cb@truth.com), July 29, 1999.

The news is shifting.

Slowly, subtly, and in the middle of summer when nobody (other than us) is paying attention.

Reuters called the ICC a "bunker." The Feds keep raising fears about "cyber-terrorism." Koskinen says, "Clearly, this is more than a January 1 problem." the State Department IG warns repeatedly of "Y2K- related failures in every sector, in every region, and at every economic level," and nobody tries to stop her. The world's most powerful PR firms are on the ball. The Secretary of Defense publicly and clearly states what military priorities are and why. The Federal Government enacts tort reform (because they KNOW there will be major problems). The US military conducts the "ultimate in (sham) testing". Alan Greenspan says something about Y2K at least a couple of times a week, though using the most obvious and transparent platitudes, the FED offers a new facility for banks to borrow funds to cover the cash they will need at a higher interest rate...

Can you see it yet? Are you paying attention to what's happening? This is only from the last two weeks. It will most likely continue like this throughout the summer, and the herd won't notice come fall.

After Labor Day, watch out!

-- pshannon (pshannon@inch.com), July 29, 1999.

And then this, which I believe was mentioned in an earlier thread, but bears repeating:

"While monitoring and collecting information on system operations across the globe ... has never been tried before, I am confident that the structure we have put in place" will work, he said.

Koskinen said the focus of his work was shifting to "event management" to deal with possible disruptions caused by confused computers.

"It has become increasingly clear that there is a growing desire and need for timely and accurate information about system operations as the world moves into the new millennium," Koskinen said in testimony prepared for the special Senate panel on the technology problem. An advance copy was obtained by Reuters.

"I am confident..." "focus shifting to event management..."

Read the second paragraph of the article above very slowly; let it roll off your tongue a couple of times. Do you really need to know ANYthing else about the Y2k issue, and whether or not it is worth the time and effort and expense to prepare? This is from the guy who allegedly knows more about Y2k impact than anyone on the planet earth. Why do we need to manage an event that Koskenin and every polly around says IS GOING TO BE A TOTAL NON-EVENT.

For anyone sitting on the fence, figure it out, for God's sake.

The goobermint is spending 40 million bucks on a facility austensibly for tracking Y2k failures. I'm spending a few thousand on personal preps. Yet who gets pegged as the lunatic wacko fringe element?

It's time for Virginia to be told that there is, in fact, no Santa Claus.

-- The Auditor (Auditor@gotcha.com), July 29, 1999.

Oops. Forgot the link to the above reference article:

http://n ews.excite.com/news/r/990729/05/tech-yk-bunker

-- The Auditor (Auditor@gotcha.com), July 29, 1999.

pshannon and Auditor

Excellent analysis and conclusions!!!! Thanks for your intelligent and accurate input.


How can you disreguard the importance and relevance of this article? I have to agree with X-man. You need to re-read the article and think this time if you are able. Try to offer insight, wisdom, further info or something of relevance besides mindless criticism. That is what this forum is for.

-- Da-Bomb (Pollys_and _trolls_eat@this.com), July 29, 1999.


Did I know you in a former incarnation? You sound soooooo familiar.

(As for me, I only ask the questions.)


-- FM (vidprof@aol.com), July 29, 1999.

this has been a truly amazing week.

Koskinen is now sounding more and more like a pessimist. I wonder what's changing behind closed doors in DC?



-- Michael Taylor (mt4design@aol.com), July 29, 1999.

New spinning beginning's not thinning the sinning.

-- Randolph (dinosaur@williams-net.com), July 29, 1999.


I think it may have been ancient Egypt. I seem to remember being one of those guys who wrote the hieroglyphics on the walls inside the pyramids. Maybe you were there too? Interesting, but the gods on earth are still using the mass media of the day to write their perscriptions into heaven. The slaves still write the story in blood, and the gods still believe it.

I alluded to it earlier, I'll say it again. There's a change in the mood of the press. Last spring, we were inundated with success stories, and what the hell, I believed almost every one of them. There may have been like 5 reports a day of companies and agencies saying "We've made it! (Well, close, anyway, we're just waiting for the final parts to come/planned maintenance this autumn/finishing putting code into production/testing in a simulated environment showed up 3 glitches, no problem.)

And, just in time for summer. Now, we can all relax...

But there's a strange feeling behind more and more of what the press is reporting these days. I mean the NY/LA/London Times, Post, AP, Reuters, Dow Jones -- not just WND and Gary. It's low-key, like a gin and tonic under an umbrella at the beach. Yet, it's also big-time, no-nonsense, hard-core national security stuff. It just feels like they know they've entered the end-game. I think Koskinen wants this whole thing to come to resolution in one form or another as much as the rest of us.

-- pshannon (pshannon@inch.com), July 29, 1999.

Remember the days when reporters slyly laughed behind their collars as they interviewed the crazy Grabowskis down the street on their preparations as the camera panned across the shelves of canned goods, buckets of dried beans, the ubiquitous generator and 5-gallon gas cans? Those same reporters are now solemnly offering serious Y2K preparation advice. (You heard it here first. A WABC exclusive!)

-- Elbow Grease (LBO Grise@aol.com), July 30, 1999.

Pshannon wrote:


I think it may have been ancient Egypt. I seem to remember being one of those guys who wrote the hieroglyphics on the walls inside the pyramids. Maybe you were there too? "


"There's a change in the mood of the press."

I agree, Pshannon. In fact I mentioned the same thing to someone on July 21, 1999. I noticed the shift a few days prior to that date.

The next few months of media coverage will be interesting to watch.


-- FM (vidprof@aol.com), July 30, 1999.

I have noticed that the powers that be are very interested in keeping the status quo "If we get a couple hundred million Americans doing anything differently, we're going to create economic problems,'' he said and that the sheeple(as someone else if fond of saying) are still sleeping though all this. Not even last weeks headlines about the number of people perparing for y2k has caused any widespead concern. Just watch my watch, you are getting sleepy, very sleepy. Everything is OK.

-- y2k dave (xsdaa111@hotmail.com), July 30, 1999.

Guys, I personally heard Kosky use that same line, "if we get a couple hundred million Americans doing anything differently, we're going to create economic problems" at the Y2K Community Meeting I attended in person +in St. Paul, MN earlier this month. I was less than 25' from him, accompanied by my wife, and he said this quite clearly.

my site: www.y2ksafeminnesota.com

-- MinnesotaSmith (y2ksafeminnesota@hotmail.com), July 31, 1999.

See also... Koskinen quotes... and Ed Yourdon weighs in...

Remember, John. Our work is in your best interest...

http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id= 001AQp


(pshannon -- definately Egypt. Weren't you the one I seem to remember cussing in an ancient tongue, that chiseled those images of figher planes and helicopters on the upper walls of the Temple at Karnak a few millennia ago? Or was that Abdoys? (-1 sp). How time flies!)

-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), August 01, 1999.

Moderation questions? read the FAQ