Summary of Dept. of State's Y2K Assessment

greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread

[Don't know what happened to the original post by "Ex-Cop," but had copied and summarized it before it disappeared.]

Putting it through the mumbleizer, with "mumble, mumble," replaced by the more palatable elipses.

. . .based on information from our embassies, from our own visits, and other sources--of the risk that Y2K might cause failures in key sectors in countries around the globe. . . . less than 6 months to go before the date change. . . Approximately half of the 161 countries. . . at medium to high risk. . . failures in their telecommunications, energy, and/or transportation sectors. . . noticeably better in the finance and water/wastewater sectors. . . where two-thirds of the world's countries are reported to have a low probability of experiencing Y2K-related failures;

* Industrialized countries. . . generally. . . low risk. . . infrastructure failures, particularly in the finance sector. Still, nearly a third. . .(11 out of 39). . . medium risk of failure in the transportation sector, and almost one-fourth (9 out of 39). . . medium or high risk of failure in the telecommunications, energy or water sectors;

* . . . 52 to 68 developing countries out of 98. . . medium or high risk of Y2K-related failure in the telecommunications, transportation, and/or energy sectors. . . . relatively low level of computerization in key sectors of the developing world may reduce the risk of prolonged infrastructure failures; and

*. . .key sectors in the Newly Independent States and other former Eastern bloc nations, are a concern because of the relatively high probability of Y2K-related failures.

. . .the global community is likely to experience varying degrees of Y2K-related failures in every sector, in every region, and at every economic level. . .risk. . . will likely extend to the international trade arena,. . . breakdown in any part of the global supply chain . . .serious impact on the U.S. and world economies.. . .the challenge now facing the United States is to encourage and facilitate contingency planning by individual countries, their regional partners, and by international organizations such as the United Nations. Department of State International Y2K Efforts

The Department of State. . .has implemented measures to assess the Y2K readiness of all countries where the United States has a diplomatic presence. . . .

[explanation of info gathering efforts and actions related thereto up to present.]

Our work has resulted in the following findings:

. . .less than 6 months . . .approximately half of the world's countries. . .at medium to high risk of having Y2K-related failures in their telecommunications, energy, and/or transportation sectors. . . . situation is noticeably better in the finance and water/wastewater sectors, where about two-thirds of the world's countries. . . low probability of experiencing Y2K-related failures. The financial arena . . . at low risk from Y2K in most countries; however, worldwide, the finance sector is vulnerable because of its reliance on other, more risky sectors, including energy and telecommunications.

Industrialized countries were generally found to be at low risk . . . particularly in the finance sector. . . however, nearly a third of these countries. . . at medium risk of failure in the transportation sector, and almost one-fourth . . . at a medium risk of failure in the telecommunications, energy, or water sectors. Because industrialized countries are highly dependent on computer technology in every sector, the potential impact. . . is much higher than in the developing world. Some examples . . .:

*. . .Malaysia. . . banking, electricity, and transportation sectors were generally in the advanced stages of remediation (fixing or replacing a system) and testing. Further, the government and business sectors are developing organizational, sector, and national contingency plans . . . some concern about the Malaysian telecommunications sector, which was about 79 percent through the remediation stage as of May 1999, because of a lack of detailed information.

*. . .Seoul, . . . except for banking and telecommunications, the public and private sectors of Korea got off to a late start. . . Now, both the government and private sector organizations are reporting remarkable progress in remediating and testing their systems. However, we are concerned that the late start and the economic recession . . . means they may not be able to complete all necessary work and do a thorough job of remediation and testing.

* Taiwanese authorities and large business enterprises. . . great deal of progress in addressing Y2K issues. . . visit to Taipei, we were told that key parts of the infrastructure appear to be in compliance or close to it, and the government is preparing its contingency plans for water, transportation, and power. . . the Central Bank and the Bank of Taiwan were tested and certified by the Ministry of Finance in April 1999. However, the Y2K readiness of small and medium enterprises as well as small medical facilities remains a big question.

* A June 1999 embassy assessment of one European country, which will be hosting many large-scale millennium events that will be attended by thousands of Americans, expressed skepticism about the country's telecommunications sector because of a lack of information. . . .further. . . water and wastewater efforts were inconsistent, health care preparations were inadequate, but finance was in good shape.

*. . .ports and the ships . . . continues to be a worldwide concern. . .French Ministry of Transportation has indicated it does not support closure of French ports on December 31, 1999. It suggests that ships moored in French harbors do not attempt to maneuver on December 31, 1999. Ports and the French Navy will have emergency tugboats on red alert on December 31, 1999 should a ship come ashore.

* . . .roundtable. . . Middle Eastern country, businessmen expressed concern about the country's preparedness . . .[and] effect on business. In addition to potential problems with utilities (water and power supply) and telecommunications. . . concerned about medical services, food distribution, and the aviation system. . . .water may be the weakest link in Y2K preparedness in the region. A Y2K expert in a major city in this country advised that the city only has a 1-day supply of water and noted that staff responsible for the desalinization plants decided to turn the computers back to the year 1995, "until they can figure out how to fix the problem."

* Contrary to the bad press. . .visit to Japan in May of this year, we concluded that Japanese ministries and companies had been working quietly towards compliance, but until recently little information on their progress was available in English. . . .late start. . .may hamper their ability to thoroughly address the problem before the end of the year.

. . .from 52 to 68 developing countries out of 98 . . . medium or high risk. . . in the telecommunications, transportation, and/or energy sectors,. . . . financial sector was rated as a low risk in about 60 percent of these countries, . . . functioning is questionable because of its heavy reliance on other sectors, such as telecommunications and energy,. . .more likely to have Y2K-related problems. The relatively low level of computerization in key sectors of the developing world may reduce the risk of prolonged infrastructure failures. Examples. . .:

*. . . progress in India's Y2K readiness in the last 6 months, especially in the critical sectors of banking and finance, civil aviation, and telecommunications. But nowhere is the Y2K process complete, and contingency planning has barely begun. Most worrisome . . .70 percent of the electrical power sector controlled by the State Electricity Boards, large parts of which only now are beginning basic inventories and assessments. However, the power companies. . . reported no Y2K issues in generating, transmitting, and distributing electricity.

* . . .cautious optimism concerning Y2K readiness in China, compared to. . . few months ago. . . .Y2K conference in Beijing in May expressed confidence in China's electric grid, but also expressed concerns about. . . railroad freight, medical devices, and embedded chips. Following the conference, a Y2K article in the May 25, 1999, People's Daily decried widespread public ignorance and apathy about Y2K in China. {It] estimated that 70 percent of the large- and medium-sized manufacturers in China do not take Y2K seriously. . . .also noted that China may be vulnerable because of . . .many obsolete computers and pirated software. . .computer systems people sometimes do not know just what is on their system. . . .the Chinese government is conducting a Y2K triage, focusing limited resources on critical public utilities (water, electricity, public health, and transportation) as the top priority and then on key industrial sectors. The Chinese authorities expect some Y2K problems but nothing that will put people's lives in danger or cripple the economy.

* In Vietnam,. . .low level of computer usage. . .relatively low threat of Y2K-related failures. . . largely agrarian and based on cash, rather than electronic transactions. Further, it was difficult obtaining information . . .because the government tightly controls the information and Y2K issues are not widely publicized. . . certain things like maps, drawings, electrical diagrams, and financial figures a state secret. We did learn that one dam that provides about 80% of the electricity to Vietnam uses Russian equipment that probably has embedded chips whose Y2K readiness is questionable.

* On June 1, 1999, the Ethiopian National Y2K Committee . . . completed its Y2K assessment, and remediation is still underway. The cost. . . is estimated at $18.7 million. The air transport, electricity, and water sectors all appear to be compliant, but the telecommunications sector is lagging. Some sectors are testing now testing their systems for Y2K compliancy, but little attention has yet been given to contingency planning.

. . . key sectors in the countries . . . part of the Eastern bloc including countries that were part of the former Soviet Union . . . relatively high probability . . . failures.

. . . 14 of the 24 countries . . .assessed as being at medium or high risk of Y2K-related failure in the telecommunications sector, 15 at medium or high risk in the transportation sector, and 17. . .at medium or high risk in the energy sector. Nearly all. . .are at least partially dependent on computers for such key sectors as finance, telecommunications, utilities, and transportation. Some examples . . .:

* On June 17, 1999, . . .presidential decree that . . .the Y2K problem is one of the utmost urgency and assigns responsibilities to government administrators at all levels. . . .followed suit with a new law that provides that owners and operators of computer equipment and systems are to be held accountable for assuring Y2K compliance. The nuclear sector reports that all safety systems are Y2K compliant, and provisions are being made to ensure that back-up power will be available. Plant operations computers may have undiagnosed problems that could force a shutdown, but we expect safety systems will work as needed. There is, however, excess generating capacity within the electrical grid, which would allow for continued provision of power to high-priority customers even in the event all nuclear power plants shut down. On the other hand, . . . some unanswered questions with respect to the telecommunications sector, and are endeavoring to learn more about possible impacts. The Department of Energy, the International Atomic Energy Agency, the International Science and Technology Center, and the International Energy Agency are all engaged, with U.S. support, in assisting Y2K remediation in Russia, the first three specifically in nuclear power plants.

* Although until recently the electricity supply has been relatively stable in Poland, . . .rising concern. . . will experience limited problems due to power generation failures. Primarily,. . .localized failures, easily or quickly remedied. In addition, telecommunications may be a problem. If the local telephone system fails, greater emphasis will be placed on the use of cellular phones, already prevalent in Poland. . . .could cause an overload on the bandwidth, thereby resulting in its failure also.

* One Balkan country's Y2K efforts were reported as disorganized and underfunded, but with some positives. While the telecommunications, air transportation, and financial sectors are largely compliant, or likely will be by year-end, other sectors, including water purification, rail transportation, and the all important energy sector appear to be lagging far behind.

* The government of one former Eastern bloc country has assured [no] serious interruptions in critical sectors, including energy, transportation, water, and emergency services.. .has established a new Y2K strategy with a new Y2K commissioner; however, the program provides no deadlines and no new money, raising questions about the government's assurances about Y2K readiness.

* The official in charge of another Eastern bloc country's Y. . .program told embassy staff that it had the know-how to correct its Y2K problem, but lacked the financial means to implement the changes.

Need for Y2K Contingency Planning on a Global Scale

Y2K-related disruptions in the international flow of goods and services are likely, but no one knows exactly where, when, and to what extent such disruptions will occur. Because disruptions could seriously impact the world's economies, including our own, the Department of State needs to take the lead on behalf of our government in facilitating global contingency planning. In 1998, world trade totaled over $5 trillion, and the United States accounted for nearly 13 percent of that total. The global trading system consists of a complex network of suppliers, distributors, service providers, and customers. An infrastructure of energy supplies, transportation systems, telecommunications networks, and financial organizations support this system. Disruptions in this infrastructure, and the relationships among suppliers and customers, will negatively affect individuals, firms, industries, governments, and national and regional economies around the world.. . .our Y2K assessments suggest that the global community is likely to experience some Y2K-related failures in every sector, country, and region. The international economy is vulnerable because Y2K-related failures in the supply chains of one country or region might disrupt the ability of other countries to keep their factories working, transportation systems running, food supplied, and people employed. Work is underway around the world developing contingency plans to ensure continued functioning of governments, infrastructures, businesses, and supporting organizations within individual countries, but little is being done to consider potential supply chain disruptions originating in other countries and how they should be handled. The Department can take the lead for the U.S. Government in facilitating global Y2K contingency planning. With assistance from other Federal agencies such as the departments of Commerce, Energy, and Transportation and the Federal Emergency Management Agency, the Department needs to work with international government, industry, and consumer organizations to ensure that global contingency plans are prepared for key infrastructure and industry sectors. To do this, the Department can be most effective by leveraging the efforts of international organizations such as the United Nations, the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation, and other entities that have active Y2K outreach programs. In addition, this effort should include applying lessons learned from recent disasters (i.e., the December 1998 ice storm in Williamsburg, Virginia and the 1996 Kobe earthquake) in such sectors as transportation, power, and telecommunications. Further, there must be special emphasis on contingency planning for small and medium enterprises of 500 or fewer employees that represent approximately 98 percent of the supply chains in most countries. By promoting a global approach to Y2K contingency planning, the Department of State, on behalf of the U.S. Government, can help strengthen the ability of all countries to deal with potential disruptions in international trade.

[Explanation of dept's efforts in its own Y2K remediation.]

In summary. . .less than 6 months to go . . .the global picture that is slowly emerging is cause for concern. . . .the global community is likely to experience varying degrees of Y2K-related failures in every sector, in every region, and at every economic level. In some countries, these failures could be a mere annoyance, such as a malfunctioning credit card terminal, while in others there is a clear risk that electricity, telecommunications, and other key systems will fail, perhaps creating economic havoc and social unrest. As such, the risk of disruption will likely extend to the international trade arena, where a breakdown in any part of the supply chain would have a serious impact on the U.S. and world economies.

. . .Y2K-related failures are inevitable, both here and abroad. As such, the efforts by this Department and other international organizations will be instrumental in minimizing the impact that Y2K may have on the global community.

-- Old Git (anon@spamproblems.com), July 28, 1999

Answers

Let's see- with less than six months left to go- "the global picture that is slowly emerging is cause for concern" yadda yadda......

REALLY? But it's just gonna be a BITR. You promised.

-- farmer (hillsidefarm@drbs.net), July 28, 1999.


This State Dept. report should be read along with the U.S. Dept. of Commerce report showing how dependent we are on imports, exports, banking, shipping etc. from these other countries.

http://y2k.ita.doc. gov/y2k/y2k.nsf/dd5cab6801f1723585256474005327c8/b3cb5b3db231dd9b85256 759004baaa5?OpenDocument

-- Linda (lwmb@psln.com), July 29, 1999.


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