Gold Newsgreenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread
Yes, it IS time to be aggressively long. The "collusion crowd" is feeling the heat for orchestrating too low a gold price. The IMF gold sale is history at the moment as it will not get through the U.S. Congress, the Swiss gold sale is in serious jeopardy, African countries are pleading with the English and the IMF to cancel sales, and The Black Congress in the U.S. Congress is up in arms.
Therefore, the spotlight is on the "gold cartel crowd" -( the bullion dealers led by Goldman Sachs, the Clinton Administration, and the Blair administration in England ). It is becoming too obvious what they have been up to so they have decided that it would be better for their grand scheme for the price of gold to rally. For example - this is what kind of flack Tony Blair has to put up with:
Langkawi, Malaysia ( Dow Jones ) - The U.K.'s Bank of England should suspend all sales of its gold reserves, South Africa's Deputy President Jacob Zuma said Monday.
"The reality is we want the Bank of England to halt the sales," he said at a new conference on the fringes of an international economic conference on the Malaysian Resort Island.
Thus, Goldman Sachs initiated a hasty conference call for its clients this morning and came up with some lame supply/demand reasons why the price of gold is going to average $270 this year, $275 next and $290 the year after. ( Make that $375 or $475 next year, not $275 ).
Dan McConvey, their precious metals analyst, told Goldman's clients that: mine supply is being curtailed at these prices, the high grading that is going on is unsustainable as gold mines to not have the long life reserves capacities of base metals mines ( 10 years versus 20 years respectively ) and that is politically incorrect for central banks to be seen selling gold at this point in time. I wonder if Blair and Co. told that to McConvey?
Goldman Sachs has been a big buyer recently so they had to tell their clients that they felt a rally was coming- after they finished buying of course. This buying probably came on on notification from Peter Fisher at the New York Fed who got the word from "the top" that the manipulation game plan has been altered for the moment. That is - they are going to orchestrate, or "allow" the gold price to go higher to temporarily diffuse some of the political pressure that is being exerted upon them.
So uptown we go and we know WHY the gold price will go up. That does not mean the manipulation is ending. It just means that are side is gaining ground and that means we will only intensify GATA's efforts to expose this ludicrously obvious manipulation scheme that is destroying a supposedly "free trading market".
One more thing. The lease rates are going back up again. Could it also be that what we have been saying for some time is upon us - namely, that the central banks have planned to reduce their gold lending from here on in to the end of the year. One month lease rates are 3.17% today and 6 month rates hit a NEW HIGH of 2.71%.
Talk about risk! Who wants to borrow $254 gold with the risk that entails and pay 3.17% to boot?
Gold, silver, and the XAU should rocket in the weeks to come. Get long, be strong and go WITH the "gold conspiracy crowd" this time.
All the best,
Bill Murphy Le Patron http://www.lemetropolecafe.com
-- dw (email@example.com), July 27, 1999
Regardless of what the price of gold does for whatever reason in the upcoming months, having gold and silver coins in your physical possession as a hedge against a Y2K induced meltdown makes a lot of sense. 1/10 oz American Eagle gold coins, and 90% junk silver coins (pre-1965 U.S. quarters or dimes) are what I have seen recommended the most (and what I have bought). An excellent place to buy from, IMHO, is www.ajpm.com; they always seem to have great prices.
-- Jack (firstname.lastname@example.org), July 27, 1999.
I'd buy gold except that everyone that I have ever known that has bought metals has lost their butt. If you are talking about speculation/investment, then fine. But if you are talking about where to put your life savings, look at something that backed by the govt.
Yeah, I know, people say the govt will somehow default on their bonds. To that I say, if they did, your dollar would be worthless and gold makes a very poor barter good. It's bulky, hard to divide if you want to purchase small goods (like a loaf of bread), and there is no gaurentee of value. You can't eat gold.
People are buying gold as a knee-jerk reaction because they are scared. If you look at the chart on gold, I see no indication that we are at a flat spot. It's just rocketing down in value. At least wait until there is some sign of demand! Then Dollar Cost Average into it, (buy it in small amounts to average out cost).
Gold as a method of storing money is defunct IMO. That's why it's price keeps going down. There are about a hundred different instruments that investors use to 'park cash' if they want to ride out a stock market correction. It takes too long to park cash in gold.
By the way, have you observed the price of gold GO UP when the stock market corrects, NO! Take the correction of last october for example. The two do NOT complement each other as was once believed.
-- Bryce (email@example.com), July 27, 1999.
Bryce, I'm not disagreeing really, but I'd like to point something out: There's never been a period or place in human history when gold was totally worthless. True, there are individual situations when you can't do anything with it; you can't eat it or wear it to stay warm, etc. But even so, gold is gold. It has value BECAUSE it's gold. It has NEVER been just a shiney yellow metal, & it never will be -- at least, not until Jesus comes again.
In my humble opinion.
-- and it (firstname.lastname@example.org), July 27, 1999.
Bryce, your post permeates with "business as usual". Y2K is not business as usual, it is something different. Probably a lot different. In a way that will cause all those other "cash park" vechicles to be ineffectual, since they all boil down to (electronic) promises-to-pay.
Gold in hand may be worth more than any paper certificates, in just a few months.
-- King of Spain (email@example.com), July 27, 1999.
Evolution in Action:
A subspecies (human yuppies) fits comfortably in an environmental/ecological niche (a computerized, just in time inventory, fraudulent money/banking/credit, pussified, breeding like rabbits economy). The economy breaks....
-- A (A@AisA.com), July 27, 1999.
A commnent on my own posting: I posted this info/theory on current gold pricing for those who choose to invest or divest in gold. I have felt all along that one "sure" thing about y2k would be the "economy stupid." Gold "officially" is valued at $35. That is the standard, all else is spec. Cords of firewood, buckets of grain, solar panels and batts or fuel for gennie and a safe haven have 100% value!
There is NO WAY of KNOWING what the value of Gold will be after 1999 or who will accept it. Personally, I believe that if y2k is a 5 or more, when it's all over there will be a new dollar (International). If it takes a couple more years, a digital dollar.
Again, just thought I'd post for those who are speculating or have "hoarded" money beyond most needs.
-- dw (firstname.lastname@example.org), July 27, 1999.
One more comment: If people are sqirming about gold dropping, this could be great news. IF gold does rise a hundred or two, then a person can decide that cash is king or not. PS: New cash, not old bills. Old bills may be withdrawn from circulation before it's all over.
-- dw (email@example.com), July 27, 1999.
I once made a fair amount of money investing in gold. . . But gold is NOT an investment; it's insurance. If the banks fail, where are the electronic dollars coming from? Where would cash come from? If the currency is inflated to prevent bank insolvency, gold will still be negotiable. It is a liquid asset. As is cash, stock, etc.
If Y2K turns out to be a "2", try selling a generator, cord of firewood, 20 gallons of gas, a sack of rice or whatever for what you paid for it this year.
An ounce of gold buys about the same amount of goods over the years: so many groceries; a good, man's suit; a saddle for your horse. . .
And as for being "bulky" try putting a cord of wood in your pocket.
--with a little jingle in my pocket. . .
-- NYD (firstname.lastname@example.org), July 27, 1999.
Actually, the "official" price of an ounce of gold is currently $50.
Gold is not for everyone. It is for those who have enough wealth in its many forms that they can afford (and/or can't afford not to) hedge their investments with a pretty metal which
1. Doesn't physically deteriorate much (No tarnish like silver).
2. Conducts electricity.
3. Fills teeth pretty well.
Anyone know what gold's melting point is?
-- nothere nothere (email@example.com), July 27, 1999.
Melting point of gold: 1064 degrees Centigrade
-- Elbow Grease (LBO Grise@aol.com), July 27, 1999.
NW: Thanks for the correction ($50). I agree that gold has a long term value. I agree more with the Aztecs, that it's shiny, maliable, a great conductor and utilitarian. As far as if y2k is a 2, what will a generator or solar panel be worth? The costs, at the moment are NOT inflated. A solar panel will last over 20 years, any so called survival stuff can always save a life or inconvience and THE MAIN LESSON THAT SHOULD BE LEARNED is that WE, as individuals, and as a society, should disconnect from the buy and throw away system. We should go back to solid, well made products, that are utilitarian and resusable. To assume, that if a 2 occurs, that we should go back to the same REDICULOUS way of making silly/throw away products (via slaves from "poor" countries) and waste more resources, water, air and health is JUST PLAN STUPID.
In ten/twenty years, the world will have a new crisis and computers and manpower will not fix it. How easily we forget that quality of life is more important than the status quo.
-- dw (firstname.lastname@example.org), July 27, 1999.
Bryce, I felt the same way that you did about a month ago, but now I'm buying gold. Why? There are only three places to put your money-- Treasuries, CDs, and gold. If you are going to diversify, you have to use all three, IMHO. This is for people who have money that can't all be spent on preps and who would like to TRY to conserve some capital. I have set up a TreasuryDirect account, put some small amount in CDs as a longer shot, and am putting about 8 percent of my savings in gold. It will be worth something regardless of the scenario...
-- Mara Wayne (MaraWAyne@aol.com), July 27, 1999.
Here is a suggestion for anyone wary of gold:
The 1999 half-ounce and/or quarter-ounce Platinum Eagles. They have been in production since 1997 and a trend is developing which is almost certain to continue. Very few of these sizes are minted (less than 40,000 each), hence when official mintages are published in December of each year, prices go up for their numismatic value. Buy in December as bullion, sell in January thru April or May as numismatic. Pt is not hoarded in reserves, therefore is not subject to market manipulation.
Possible drawback: Pt is used in many industries which may suffer during the Y2K era, but the strategy here is to position oneself into numismatics not bullion - numismatic value often has little or nothing to do with bullion prices.
Also, the Eagles (Au, Pt, Ag) do not require 1099 filing. Perfect anonymity. Call any coin dealer in your area to discuss this strategy.
-- Zach Anderson (email@example.com), July 27, 1999.
I don't mean to totally trash gold.. If you want it as part of a portfolio, I think that's fine. Diversification is good.
I read a note on a thread where a guy DUMPED his 401K and bought gold though. That kind of hit a nerve. Some guy handed Uncle Sam 38 or more percent of his retirement savings to buy something that is purely speculative.
If you want gold, fine, I mean it's your money. I'd just suggest you don't do it out of hype. Unlike the original posting on this thread, you should accept that it could be worth 200.00, or 180.00 just as easily as it could trade for 400.00 or 1000.00 .
Also, think about doing a DCA. Purchase it in installments. Don't just make a bravado trade with your life savings.
My 2 cents..
-- Bryce (firstname.lastname@example.org), July 28, 1999.
Fact: current cost to mine and refine gold, $215.00 per ounce in the US, $244.00 an ounce in South Africa.
Fact: Current gold price floating around $250.00-$260.00.
Major mining companies are closing operations due to no profit margin... Homestake Mining, Barrick.
Major short position of 264 tons of gold being held by the likes of Goldman Sachs, who bailed out LTCM.
Central banks like the Bank of England, who threaten to sell some of their reserves, in order to keep the price down.
Low interest gold loans being acquired by hedge funds like LTCM.
This group is manipulating the price of gold. If they don't, the big loans of gold will not be able to cover their short position if the price of gold goes up.
"I hesitate to say it but it does look as though gold is being manipulated. I've long been skeptical of an anti-gold conspiracy, but I am beginning to wonder. 'We are going to sell our gold, we are going to sell our gold' is the cry of the central banks. Are they actually selling their gold or are they just 'going to sell it'? Much as the central banks want it to, gold will not disappear.." - Richard Russell - Dow Theory Letters
GATA is trying to uncover this conspiracy involving major banking and Wall Street players, along with the central banks...
Their spin is working, according to some lines of this thread. They want you to believe gold is not a worthy investment.
I beg to differ...
growlin' at the TV....
-- Dog (Desert Dog@-sand.com), July 28, 1999.
Bryce: Perfect product of the 20th century (post-1913 that is).
Sorry Bryce nothing personal.
Gold doesn't "do" anything. No interest. No swaps. No derivatives. No nothing. It just sits there.
And waits for all the other BS to go away.
-- Mr Gresham (email@example.com), July 29, 1999.
Bryce, again you've got it wrong, there are ways to cash out of a 401k WITHOUT paying 38% to the gubbmint (many on this forum have done it), I wish people like yourself and double-decker would not keep perpetuating this fallacy... and do you believe there will be a functioning IRS next year??? BTW, the sheople with their life savings and pensions tied up in 401k's will wish that they had cashed out, even at your bogus 38% rate, WTSHTF...Think about it.
-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), July 29, 1999.