I have a circle of "mighty companions," which preceded Y2K, to whom I send commentaries. This is a mailing I am about to send out which perhaps others would > find useful to send to people who are not as Y2K savvy as we are. Feel free to use any and all of it. I will send this on Wednesday, July 28, and would appreciate being > notified before that if anyone spots any errors in what I've written: suzanne@mightycompanions.org. > > Thanks, > Suzanne Taylor > www.mightycompanions.org > > ==================================== > > "The greatest antidote to worry, whether you're getting ready > for spaceflight or facing a problem of daily life, is preparation... > the more you try to envision what might happen and what your > best response and options are, the more you are able to allay > your fears about the future." Senator John Glenn > > ------------------------------------ > > Having been very involved with Y2K activists on the Internet and in > meetings at my home, I want to report on how things are looking to > me. > > Despite the temptation to believe writings which scoff at Y2K in > major magazines and newspapers, and to be assuaged by the > light-hearted treatment of Y2K in TV commercials, we endanger > ourselves by not taking seriously enough the trouble we could be > in. In fact, to arrive at this conclusion, one need not listen to any > prognosticators -- just look at the telling signs that we can see for > ourselves. To grasp the scope of the problem, look at the billions > of dollars that have been expended on it. For a stark truth about > unpreparedness, look outside the US, where countries range > from having done nothing to being three years behind us. > > The failure of any link breaks a chain, and all our vital processes > and products come to us from chains inside of chains. And installations > of Y2K fixes have distresssingly triggered cascading failures of > components thought to be compliant. With many critical systems so > late in making remediations that they first will be tested in December, > how could anyone expect only minor disruptions when we hit the year > 2,000? We can see clearly that there are gross vulnerabilites that > could shut down our intricately inter-linked world. How can anyone draw > any other conclusion than the likelihood that we wiill get quite a wrenching? > > What is foremost in my awareness is how much better off we would be > if all hands were on deck dealing with the situation. Humanity is stunningly > resourceful. If everyone were taking this seriously, we would have so much > better a chance to minimize the difficulties that could occur. What to do to > mitigate the effects of the worst that could happen should be everyone's > preoccupation. > > In case you are not up to speed on what is occurring on the preparedness > front, the most visible effort is a program, initiated by the federal government, > called "Community Conversations." Public meetings, organized locally and > frequently attended by federal officials, are being held all over the country > to inform the citizenry about preparedness in their community. Inherent to their > design, these meetings are geared more to reassure people than to urge > contingency planning. Activists all the while are pressing to make speakers > at these events more forthright. What has not yet become commonplace, that > I hope will be upcoming for everyone, is working with neighbors. We will personally > be served best by knowing who is in our neighborhood and what we can do for > one another. In our mutuality, our safety lies. > > I keep a file of noteworthy reports and opinions that I get in my email or that I find > on the Web. Here are some excerpts: > > BIG COMPANIES FALLING BEHIND IN YEAR 2000 REPAIRS > (Barnaby J. Feder, THE NEW YORK TIMES, 5/17/99) > > According to a recent survey of chief information officers and project > managers by CAP GEMINI AMERICA, the largest companies in the nation > continue to fall behind their schedules for Year 2000 repairs. What is > most disturbing is that 22 percent say they do not expect to have all of > their critical systems tested and ready when the clock ticks over to > January 1, 2000. That number is up from 16 percent in November and > 12 percent last August. > > http://www.nytimes.com/library/tech/99/05/biztech/articles/17bug.html > > Y2K TO KILL TWO-THIRDS OF BALTIC & RUSSIAN BUSINESSES > (Lucas Rozsa, WESTERGAARD YEAR 2000, 5/20/99) > > After completing an exhaustive global study of individual country's > preparations for the Year 2000 crisis, the GARTNERGROUP has > projected that fully two thirds of Baltic and Russian businesses will fail > as a result of direct and indirect consequences of Year 2000 equipment > and computer failures. The conclusions match those of international and > local Y2K analysts, including those working for American intelligence > and diplomatic communities, such as the CIA. > > http://www.y2ktimebomb.com/IW/AK/iw9920.htm > > VENEZUELA IN SERIOUS TROUBLE > (REUTERS, 5/26/99) > > "Public services could be paralyzed, mainly because of problems with > electricity." The head of the government Central Office of Statistics and > Computing, Gustavo Mendez, said Venezuela was one of the least > well-prepared countries in the world. > > [Note: The U.S. Senate Report on Y2K indicates that 50 percent of the > oil used in the U.S. is imported. Venezuela is the leading source, > providing 16.2 percent of the oil imported from foreign countries. ] > > http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/tc/story.html?s=v/nm/19990526/tc/yk_venezuela_1.html > > ITALIAN Y2K PREPARATIONS IN CHAOS > (Richard Owen, THE TIMES -UK, 5/14/99) > > With just seven months to the deadline, officials in Italy are only now > waking up to the magnitude of the Y2K problem facing them. "Italy is > going to crash, and we are going to be crucified," says Romano Oneda, > the education consultant on Italy's Year 2000 Committee...Augusto Leggio, > whose task is to persuade the transport and telecommunications sectors > to face up to Y2K, said the problem was "so vast there is no point in > getting hysterical." He said the Interior Ministry, which controls police > and immigration services, hoped to guarantee most essential > services by the end of this year, but would not be fully compliant until > July 2000. According to one survey, only two percent of Italians have > heard of the Y2K problem.. > > http://www.the-times.co.uk/news/pages/tim/99/05/14/timfgneur01003.html? > > AFRICA DECLARES MILLENNIUM BUG AN EMERGENCY > (PANAFRICAN NEWS AGENCY, 5/14&15/99) > > At the first Y2K conference of its kind in Africa, high-level officials > and technical managers from 45 African states and organizations > have declared the problem an emergency of the highest priority... > Of particular concern are airports in Africa, which may face a possible > embargo on their operations. The International Air Transport Association > (IATA) had issued questionnaires to airports of member countries, but the > response from Africa has been very slow. "What it means is that most > airlines cannot fly to such airports in 2000," said IATA Coordinator of > Africa's Y2K project, Gabriel Wolde. > > http://www.africanews.org/PANA/news/19990515/feat4.html > http://www.africanews.org/atlarge/stories/19990514_feat9.html > > "We've told our local governments and state governments that they need > to be prepared to handle emergencies on their own, since the federal > government can't be everywhere dealing with every problem in light of the > large number of problems that we are likely to have." > John Koskinen, the President's Year 2000 Chairman, 4/22/99 > > > "I cannot be optimistic. I am generally concerned about the > possibility of power shortages...Supermarket supplies may be > disrupted...It's clear we can't solve the whole problem, so we have > to allow some systems to die so mission-critical systems can work.... > Pay attention to the things that are vulnerable in your life and make > contingency plans...Don't panic, but don't spend too much time > sleeping, either." > Senator Robert Bennett, Chairman of the Senate's Special Committee > on the Year 2000 Problem > > "This is not a prediction, it is a certainty -- there will be serious disruption > in the world's financial services industry.... It's going to be ugly." > THE SUNDAY TIMES, London > > > Y2K GLITCHES COULD SHUT DOWN OIL REFINERIES > (E. L. Core, WESTERGAARD YEAR 2000, 6/2/99) > > In late 1997, one oil company's engineers testing valve control > equipment in their refineries discovered thousands of terminals > controlling the dispensation of oil to have microchips with Y2K > problems. All of the chips required replacement. However, it was > discovered that the replacement chips would not fit on the existing > motherboards. It was therefore necessary to order both new chips and > motherboards. Worse still, the replacement motherboards were found > not to fit the old valves, so the valves themselves had to be replaced. > This example demonstrates how a Y2K problem can escalate > beyond the original fault to include systems that may actually be > compliant. An item's Y2K compliancy is therefore no guarantee that > its replacement will not be necessitated by problems arising in other > equipment." > > http://y2ktimebomb.com/Media/lcore9922.htm > > HALF OF NATION'S HOSPITALS NOT Y2K COMPLIANT > (Norma Wagner, THE SALT LAKE TRIBUNE, 6/10/99) > > Half the 6,000 hospitals in the U.S. will not be Y2K compliant when the > new year rolls around, says Sen. Bob Bennett (R-Utah), Chair of the > Senate's Y2K committee. Particularly unprepared are hospitals in rural > areas, adds Mark Stoddard, President and CEO of the Rural Health > Management Corp., who claims that because patient loads in those > facilities are not as high as in urban hospitals, administrators have no > way to make up the losses. > > http://www.sltrib.com/06101999/utah/190.htm > > Y2K TRADE PROBLEMS LOOM FOR POOR COUNTRIES > (REUTERS, 6/26/99) > > A "significant number" of developing countries face severe trade disruption > and a collapse of customs operations at year's end because they are not > ready to cope with the year 2000 problem, a U.N. agency has warned. > > Jean Gurunlian, a senior official of the U.N. Conference on Trade and > Development (UNCTAD), said trade could be interrupted for these > countries for weeks or "maybe months." > > Of the 75 countries using ASYCUDA, UNCTAD's Automated System for > Customs Data and Management set up in the 1980s, some 35 to 40 are > considered as having a high-risk of being affected by the Y2K problem... > > http://news.excite.com/news/r/990626/02/tech-trade-millennium > > > FEARS OF CHAOS AS FIRMS RISK BUG EFFECT > (Mark Henderson, BUSINESS NEWS, 6/28/99) > > BRITAIN is facing economic meltdown next year because hundreds of our > largest companies are playing "Russian roulette" with the millennium > bug, an independent watchdog will warn the City of London today. > > Up to 300 of Britain's top 1,000 firms are risking tens of thousands of > jobs and billions of pounds of profits because crucial technology is > unlikely to be bug-compliant by the end of the year, according to a > comprehensive survey by Taskforce 2000 and Dibb Lupton Alsop, > the firm of solicitors. > > If the worst-case scenario predicted in the report happens, London's > financial markets could be thrown into chaos as thousands of computers > crash because they cannot cope with the date change. > > http://www.telegraph.co.uk/et?ac=000271261842766&rtmo=VZZkGwjx&atmo=ggggg3qK&pg=/et/99/7/1/npas > s01.html > > ONLY ONE-THIRD OF RUSSIA'S VITAL COMPUTERS Y2K READY > (ASSOCIATED PRESS, 7/12/99) > > Only one-third of Russia's vital computer systems are ready for the > so-called Millennium Bug, and the government probably won't have the > money to fix the rest in time, officials said Monday... > > Russia has been slow to address the Millennium Bug because of more > pressing problems, including a severe cash shortage. > > link: http://www.y2ktoday.com/modules/home/default.asp?id=1774 > > "I attended a Y2K presentation by Joanne Isham, the Associate Deputy > Director for Science and Technology at the Central Intelligence Agency, > on June 25, 1999, as part of the Society of Women Engineers national > convention. Her presentation was very dark regarding the Y2K > remediation status of foreign countries. She indicated that one of the > CIA's main concerns is rioting and unrest in other countries, sparked by > anger at their governments for failure of public services, and anger at > the United States for causing the Y2K problem in the first place, either > accidently or on purpose. This could lead to the overthrow of several > governments in the Year 2000. Also, terrorists could use Y2K disruptions > as an excuse/opportunity to attack U.S. facilities, both domestically and > overseas, such as embassies and corporate subsidiaries. Oil shortages > due to disruptions in drilling, refining, and distribution are also a possibility. > The CIA is taking Y2K very seriously and investigating ways to protect > Americans living overseas, as well as U.S. interests." > Lisa Clifton, CIVIC PREPAREDNESS DISCUSSION LIST, 6/26/99 > > "Y2k is perceived as a business problem with threats to business, not as a > social problem with society at risk. Society in fact is the threat to business, > and Y2k gets managed from that perspective. No organization of society- > wide influence speaks for society. FEMA, the Red Cross, and of course > Government in its full range all look to preserving markets as their > legitimate concern, with the 'public' to be manipulated for the least risk > to business. Business is more worried by cash flows now, than by cash > flows later, and as a result is more worried by panic now (since Y2k doesn't > happen now) than Y2k effects later. From a market point of view, the future > is deeply discounted. Carl Quigley, a teacher of Clinton's has been quoted > as saying 'Capitalism is the system of accounting that does not account for > social costs.' The people and communities can handle bad news, because > of lots of flexibility and creativity, but the market cannot. Bad news always > brings it down, and is always a house of cards, whereas society is responsive > and can be good in a crisis...Y2k raises the most fundamental issues of social > policy where the techno/financial market driven complex can diverge from social > usefulness. We have created the conditions where the market can be doing well, > but the people are doing badly." > Doug Carmichael, 6/15/99 > > CALIFORNIA FRAUGHT WITH UNCERTAINTY > (Dave Lesher, LA TIMES, 6/16/99) > > Legislators said they were encouraged earlier this year when Davis made > Y2K repairs a priority for his administration. The governor ordered every > department to abandon other computer work, and he assigned a team > of industry and government experts to attack the problem. > > But lawmakers said their confidence dropped after the Davis team issued > a recent status report. > > "I'm not certain this is going to get done," Assemblyman John Dutra > (D-Fremont) said after hearing the administration's report. "It's > alarming. . . . I'd like significantly more assurance." > > The report covered only five of the state's 116 departments, focusing > first on the most critical. Confusing and admittedly outdated data in > the report also caused lawmakers to question how some of the critical > areas could be categorized as low risk. > > Vasconcellos complained, for example, that the rating assigned to the > Department of Transportation was dropped from high risk in April to low > risk in May even though the same tasks were still listed as incomplete > in each month. > > Cortez blamed a paperwork error... > > Wilson signed an executive order in 1997 demanding that every critical > computer system complete its Y2K repairs by last December, a deadline > that was not met by a single state department. > > http://www.latimes.com/CNS_DAYS/990616/t000054018.html > > "Virtually everyone predicts some level of service disruption but > downplays the significance of its effects by using verbiage such as > 'minimal impact' and 'sporadic disruption' or language to that effect. > As a responsible police administrator, I have absolutely no choice other > than to plan for the worst-case scenario and hope, as you, for something > significantly less. It would be unacceptable and irresponsible for me to do > anything less. If anything, I'm attempting to dispel the Armageddon/survivalist > mentality that will continue to grow disproportionately due to a lack of > information from responsible and well-respected sources. We have before > us an opportunity and a challenge to transform fear and concern into a creative > and effective action plan that will pay significant dividends to our community > whether Y2K-related problems come to pass or not." > Jim Brown, Chief of Police, Hudson, Ohio > > http://www.hudson-oh-pd.org/ > > Y2K GLITCH LIKELY TO DISRUPT TRADE > (Jim Wolf, REUTERS, 7/21/99) > > "Y2K-related disruptions in the international flow of goods and services are likely; > a breakdown in any part of the supply chain would have a serious impact on the U.S. > and world economies.'" > > The international economy is "vulnerable" because Y2K-related failures in the supply > chains of one country or region could disrupt others' ability to keep factories working, > transportation systems running, food supplied and people employed, the State > Department's inspector general added. > > http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/tc/story.html?s=v/nm/19990721/tc/usa_global_2.html > > THE YEAR 2000 RECESSION > (Ed Yardini, book excerpt, 5/10/99) > > Currently, I believe there is a 70% chance of such a worldwide recession, > which could last 12 months starting in January 2000 and could be as severe > as the 1973-74 global recession. That downturn was caused by the OPEC > oil crisis, which is a useful analogy for thinking about the potential economic > consequences of Y2K. Just as oil is a vital resource for our global economy, > so is information. If the supply of information is disrupted, many economic > activities will be impaired, if not entirely halted...It wouldntake much to disrupt > the global just-in-time system...Even if most domestic supply chains are fixed, > it is very likely that breaks in the global supply chain will occur. This is bound > to disrupt production of just-in-time manufacturers everywhere...The Dow Jones > Industrial Average peaked at 1051.7 on January 11, 1973. It plunged 45% to a > trough of 577.6 on December 6, 1974. The bear market lasted 23 months. At this > time, I anticipate a 30% drop in stock prices caused by a Year 2000 recession. > > http://www.yardeni.com/y2kbook.html#B1.1 > > > "MIDNIGHT CROSSING" > (James A. Kitfield, AIR FORCE MAGAZINE, 7/99) > > If you want a guide for your local community, here's the site. Here's why > you may want this: Although some facilitation and information sharing > is available, neither government at the state or federal level, nor the > private sector, are in a position to address Y2K risks at the community > level. Citizens will invariably look to their local government to ensure > the safety, health, and welfare of their communities. And although local > government generally counts on being able to ask for help from state and > federal agencies when problems arise, these agencies may be too busy > with their own Y2K problems just when your community needs them most. > > This means that citizens will be looking for leadership from their elected > officials and city managers to guide them safely into the new millennium. > The Y2K "Millennium Management Blueprint(TM)" provides local > government with a plan... > > The new version (v16.30) of the "Millennium Management Blueprint(TM) -- > A Y2K Leadership Blueprint for Local Government" is now available for > download or printing at http://www.tma2000.org. > > Here's the first paragraph of the Blueprint: "We know that the Y2K problem > may impact the ability of local governments to protect the health, safety, > and welfare of their communities. How big that impact will be, or for how > long, is unknown and open to speculation. But one thing is certain: the > potential for Y2K damage and disruption at the local level is real and we > need to prepare our communities. Only local government is in a position to > provide the leadership needed to bring together all of the various citizen, > business, and government groups that need to cooperate for the common > good. The Millennium Management Blueprint(TM) was developed to help > local leaders manage community preparedness." > > http://www.justincasey2k.com/crossing.htm > > 80 COUNTRIES SHOW RISK FOR YEAR 2000 COMPUTER WOES > (Stephen Barr and Roberto Suro, WASHINGTON POST SERVICE, 7/24/99) > > A State Department survey of 161 nations has found that about half of the > countries face a medium to high risk of Year 2000 computer breakdowns in > their telecommunications, energy and transportation sectors, which may have > an impact on international trade. > > ''It would be prudent to recognize that Y2K-related failures are inevitable, both > here and abroad,'' Jacquelyn Williams-Bridgers, the State Department's inspector > general, told a Senate committee Thursday. > > http://www.iht.com/IHT/TODAY/SAT/FPAGE/risk.2.html > > "Assumption 1: A certain percentage of computers will not be compliant by > 1/1/2000. No one can know exactly what that will be. > Assumption 2: Due to the interconnectedness of global infrastructure due to > the computerization of the last 30 years, no one can know what > percent of non-compliant computers/ embedded chips it would > take to cause a collapse. > Conclusion: The possibility of infrastructure rupture globally or regionally > on a global scale is not remote enough to ignore." > Tom Osher, CIVIC PREPAREDNESS DISCUSSION LIST, 7/26/99 > > > "The Titanic sank in an ocean that was 99% free of icebergs." -- Anonymous >

-- Daren Henderson (TryChange@aol.com), July 27, 1999