...and the lack of ALLCAPS indicates he's been taking his lithium:

Monday, 26-Jul-1999 16:44:29 [Debunking Y2k board]

CPR writes:

[PNG] is an OUTSIDER. Period. I know far more about how business is done in Japan than most.

Japan is NOT the US or even Europe where societies are more or less open in their communications. In Japan, almost all communications are a shell game designed for the competitive advantage of the companies. PNG had some of the right ideas last year when he suggested that outsiders couldn't know what was going on. Now to claim his views are accurate must be evaluated in that mode.

Rather, I would like to see what a major like Deutsche Bank or Morgan has to say about the state of Japanese readiness. Gartner also could trade information off to get an accurate idea. A solo American even married into the Royal Family would NEVER be told the FACTS.....ONLY.....what Japan, Inc wants him to know and relay. Anything else is conjecture. He is entitled to his 'opinion' but it must be viewed as such. The "real" American experts in Japan seldom talk for publication and certainly never in an open forum on the net. That is a price they pay to gain the little confidences ever shared with "outsiders".

I read his "article". It was op-ed. He has shifted from 6 months ago when he was claiming all the "real insiders" knew Japan couldn't "make it". Its BS. It is a bunch of "snap shots" of a passing parade of events that he can see only parts of. Long after the events, you can understand them. That is deliberate on the part of the Japanese.

We are at economic war with them and we are barely armed. We are getting better at it but we will not do what they will to become competitive. Does the phrase "no interest loans" have a nice ring?? It was bad enough when we were paying 10-12% for money and the Japanese majors were expanding capacity with our money (from the annual deficits in the balance of trade piling up in Japanese banks) then borrowed at 3.0% or less. Now because they "must" the banks make loans for no interest to jump start projects. That is coming to an end. Japan is beginning to come out of the slump and will be even stronger in two years from now. We should all be warned. There will be no end to the savage competition. The only advantages that we have at this point is in the lead with have in High Tech. That will remain. We must count on expanding world markets and growing our stronger industries. We may never again be competitive in Machines or other areas. In some, like agriculture and mining, we have some advantages to buy time. But "Imperial USA" financially is not going to be in the cards ever again. Twenty years from now, China will lead the world and luckily, they "like us". That is a great advantage for the US.

FACT: the Japanese Business system is set up to WAR on all others. It is the Samurai culture in peace time. Never forget that. They view the American Public as "consumers" to be kept fat and happy by paying for the Japanese branded products.

If MITI ordered the Trading Corps to shape up for Y2k back in the mid-1990s (and there is now some evidence that that is when some of them started), the last thing they would do is tell the world of the need for that before the Nippon Corps were ready. Like so many companies here it was just another "advantage" that could be pressed in a competitive situation. The need to divulge would come only at "long term contract signing time" not before. Look up the number of Lawyers in Japan and ask how many would or even dare engage in Litigation against any substantial company there. It is simply not done.

Again, they are a MONOLITHIC CULTURE where the Corporations have replaced the Feudal War Lords through a savage "meritocracy" which floats the talent to the top. One slip along the way and the "Corporate Man" get early retirement but is kept in the "family" as a "middle man" whether broker or small manufacturer in the Kanban system. All part of an elaborate Corporate Spoils systems and all designed to insure Financial Victory at all costs.

The easiest way to "slip" and fall is to TALK to outsiders. That immediately brands one as "unreliable". Thus, for an American to be giving his impressions means NOTHING.

In fact, the very idea that PNG would relay such thoughts can have only two meanings. They are worthless or he has been directed to soften his line from that of last year OR ELSE. And that else could very well be the continuation of any business relationships he has in Japan or for Japanese Companies.

It took IBM ten years to begin to develop the relationships necessary to do serious amounts of business in Japan both as a buyer and a vendor. It would take thousands of words to begin to describe how business is done in Tokyo behind closed doors. No decisions or discussions even are held in the presence of "outsiders" and Americans and Europeans are outsiders.

I can't discuss exactly how I know. Some people here know from offline. I don't care if he was born there. He is not part of the structure.

It is analogous to the way the "good ole boy" net of Preppies and graduates of certain schools run certain industries in the US.

Now we are a lot more "open" than Japanese Society and even here few people really understand how business is done. At least "big business".

Japan is the ulitimate "who you know" society. It is understood that business is not discussed outside the Corporate Family. Even the Kanban structure doesn't really know past a certain level. MITI and the Trading Corps. have far better information.

cpr

-- a (a@a.a), July 26, 1999

Answers

I sent my friend PNG's letter. My friend has lived in JApan more than 20 years. His wife is Japanese. He translates Japanese into English. He said that PNG's information just about summed up the situation. People there pretty much know what is going on, but don't feel there's much they can do.

-- Mara Wayne (MaraWayne@aol.com), July 26, 1999.

This is one of cpr's better posts. Corporate Japan's image of itself and how they have and hope to prosper certainly jibes with what I know.

But (there always is one you know), his blistering of PGN's very savy *man on the street* report is misplaced. You don't need a microphone in the corporate boardroom to know if the black boxes are being replaced on the assembly lines and PNG's major concern was *production*.

-- Carlos (riffraff1@cybertime.net), July 26, 1999.

Hmmm...

''In fact, the very idea that PNG would relay such thoughts can have only two meanings."

A black or white, yes or no mindset may sound clever, but the truth may lie in other possibilites.

As John Maynard Keynes said: "When the facts are unclear, I keep and open mind. What do you do, sir?"

-- PNG (Peter Gauthier) (png@gol.com), July 26, 1999.

As usual from CPR, a lot of attacking sound and fury, and very, very, very little substance. He is a gadfly, has been for at least since Apr98 when I first encountered him on the Eugene OR y2k list.

-- Mitchell Barnes (spanda@inreach.com), July 27, 1999.

I couldn't resist checking out this "Debunking Y2k" place. Then I read more from cpr. Next, I couldn't resist posting the following response there:

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Interesting 'sermon' by cpr (he has a Bubba kinda style - everything written comes across like the word of God), but here's a few points to ponder...

-- I don't hide behind a mask of anonymity. I have never violated the trust or confidentiality of any person, client or company. I've never 'shot my mouth off' about any company.

-- I'm not a 'tourist.' Japanese corporate directors pay me an enormous amount of money and value what I have to tell them. The obvious question would be: "How much do they pay to listen to cpr?"

-- I'm one of the people who has prodded, cajoled, finessed, pressed and pushed Japanese companies to * take action.* Of course, that's only because I have the access to boardrooms and people at companies where cpr would never get inside the gate...

Would cpr be happier if some of the world's largest companies started later?

-- It doesn't matter what cpr's 'opinion' of me, Japan or Japanese culture is. Deal with the reality that someone must deal with them. In this case, I trust my 'opinion' more than the 'opinion' of cpr.

-- cpr's understanding of current Japanese corporate thinking, politics and culture is better than most - but still woefully superficial and amateurish. If cpr has ever been involved in opening a Japanese subsidiary, I can understand any problems the company might have had. Kind of like a 30 handicapper giving Tiger Woods putting tips.

-- The fortunes of the world are pulled and pushed by the two largest economies - the U.S. and Japan.

Do the numbers. Add up all the value of all the products in your house, driveway and office that came from or passed through a Japanese company. Divide that by the total value of your consumer & business products.

Do it...I dare you.

I'd be *very* interested in the production capability and financial condition of Japan, if I were you.

-- Embedded systems problems are not worse in Japan. It's a matter of scale and timing. Lot's of automated production lines (there are no manual workarounds for capacitor, resistor and diode manufacturing and printed circuit board insertion etc.), too late of a start and not enough trained people to test.

-- I don't have an agenda. No one has told me to do anything. Circumstances change and I write what I see, hear and think from my perspective. If it doesn't fit into your agenda, hopes or dreams -- I'll refund your purchase price. I don't get a kick out of arguing for sake of arguing.

cpr seems like a clever, but slightly...hot-headed, guy (or gal). If my synopses of Japan are so wrong, what's cpr's version of Japan's status?

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-- PNG (Peter Gauthier) (png@gol.com), July 27, 1999.