Do polls really count??greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread
Do polls really count? Question one states a majority think y2k will result in minor problems but Q2 stated a majority believe the problems will last for more than a week. Could this mean a majority of people think minor problems will lasts for weeks but they do not plan on storing extra supplies(Q4)? Oh the possibilities.
Banking causes biggest Y2K worries
By The Associated Press
The Associated Press poll on Y2K issues is based on telephone interviews with 1,008 randomly selected adults from all states except Alaska and Hawaii. The interviews were conducted July 16-21 by ICR of Media, Pa.
The results were weighted to represent the population by key demographic factors, such as age, sex, region and education.
The AP poll questions (because of rounding, sums may not total 100%):
1. In general, do you expect the Y2K bug to cause ... *Major problems in the United States, 11%. *Minor problems in the United States, 66%. *No problems in the United States, 18%. *Don't know, 5%.
2. How long do you think Y2K-related computer problems will last? *One day or less, 5%. *A few days, 17%. *A week or two, 30%. *More than two weeks, 32%. *No computer problems will occur, 11%. *Don't know, 5%.
3. Some people plan to take extra money out of the bank at the end of the year in case computer problems affect banks and cash machines. Do you plan to take extra money out of the bank because of the Y2K bug or not? *Yes, 25%. *No, 69%. *Don't know, 5%. *Refused to answer, 1%.
4. Some people also plan to stock up on such items as food, water, gasoline and batteries because of possible Y2K problems. Do you plan to stock up? *Yes, 31%. *No, 67%. *Don't know, 2%.
5. In your opinion, what is most at risk because of the Y2K bug? *Banking, financial services, 31%. *Transportation system, 12%. *Power supply, 26%. *Phone system, 6%. *Food distribution, 11%. *Don't know, 13%.
-- y2k dave (email@example.com), July 24, 1999
imo, the results tend towards GIGO
-- Mitchell Barnes (firstname.lastname@example.org), July 24, 1999.
Phone polls ARE NOT random. They don't go after those of us with unlisted numbers (eg., those who want to mind their own business and not be bothered). They don't talk to people who are more likely to be out busy working, running errands, etc. (ie., pollsters are more likely to catch people who are vegetating on the couch with the TV on). They don't talk to those who are a little on the paranoid side, those of us who don't like their private life invaded (ie., libertarian or independent-minded people). They don't talk to people who have their music cranked up to "11," or people who are passed out, sick, or asleep.
They DO talk to people who tend to feel like their opinions and feelings aren't acknowledged or respected enough (lots of women, youngsters, senior citizens, minorities), people who have a little time to spare, or people who are feeling a little lonely and want to hear a pleasant-sounding voice. In short, polls are always biased towards those in synch with the mainstream media and those of center- left (but not radical) political inclination.
-- coprolith (email@example.com), July 24, 1999.
In re people's banking fears--I don't think people are worried about banking collapse, merely about their money--that is, most recent deposit. That's the impression I have from talking to people. They want to be sure they have their last paycheck of the year.
-- Mara Wayne (MaraWAyne@aol.com), July 24, 1999.