Just off the AP wire. 25% of Americans will have extra cash ready for y2k.

http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/w/AP-Y2K-Poll.html

-- (nospam@work.thanks), July 23, 1999

Answers

Whoa. 25% of the population is over 68 million people.

(Maybe Kodak didn't pull that ad fast enough?)

Is there that much cash in the banks?

-- huh? (huh@uh.oh), July 23, 1999.

Several threads with different poll numbers. Funny, all these polls and I have not been contacted one time. Have you? I don't put much faith in polls.

-- Linda A. (adahi@muhlon.com), July 23, 1999.

Well, let's see here. The last time I checked the till in February, in nice round numbers there is about $50 billion in cash on hand. In the optimistic senario, Uncle Fed will add an extra $200 billion to the drawer, that'll give us about $250 billion to play with. Let's assume that the distribution of cash available to demand is perfect.

We got about 140 million worker bees over here in the hives. One quarter of that is 35 million. All worker bees - now here this! Nobody is allowed to change their minds. If you've already said you don't plan to get cash, you don't get to change you mind when the music stops! By the way, no businesses are allowed to stockpile cash for payroll purposes, either.

Hey! great news! Everbody gets to have an average of about $7,000! If Dad dosen't dump some more dough in, it drops to $1,400 per worker bee. Does this mean I have to take some back? I'm sorry, I may have already gotten some of your FRN's.

-- Karl (valleycable@earthlink.net), July 23, 1999.

25% may be THINKING about having extra cash. But since there is only 2% max cash avaiable relative to demand deposits, most are going to be S.O.L. when it comes to getting it in their hot little hands.

If you're not number 1 or 2 in a line of 100, you'll be S.O.L.

Withdraw early and withdraw often.

-- A (A@AisA.com), July 23, 1999.

Is this what withdrawal symptoms are all about?

-- Dan Hunt (dhunt@hostscorp.com), July 23, 1999.

'a' got started on the right track, but derailed fairly quickly. 25% responded to one particular survey by saying that they 'expected' to withdraw 'some' extra cash before rollover.

How many of them will actually withdraw extra cash? If historical behaviors compared to such survey results are any indication, only a few percent will actually follow through. How much will they withdraw? Face it, the majority of people don't have enough in the bank to worry about.

The linear assumption that everyone has the same amount in the bank (on which the calcuations of 'a' and others is based) is absurd. Much more realistic to go with the 80-20 rule. 'a' combines this false assumption with the equally false assumption that everyone who *says* they'll withdraw cash actually will. Finally, he rings in the equally false assumption that everyone who withdraws cash will withdraw *all* their money in cash, rather than a few days' worth.

Is it possible that all these assumptions that Gary North never bothers to make explicit are catching? Or do hidden worst-case assumptions just naturally spring into the minds of our best propagandists?

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), July 23, 1999.

O.K. So do the math.

-- Karl (valleycable@earthlink.net), July 23, 1999.

Flint, dear Flint, you keep repeating yourself over and over again without even considering the facts. Flint, the FACTS, remember the FACTS you always insist should be taken into account before even sketching an opinion? O.Kay, just do yourself a favor and check into the following hot link (I invite everyone else to do the same)

http://www.newswire.co m/cashcomputer.asp

and let's continue this conversation right after that. O/Kay? Oh, my how civilized we are today, I can't believe it...

Take care

-- George (jvilches@sminter.com.ar), July 23, 1999.

Karl: Which math are you talking about?

George: Link doesn't work for me.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), July 23, 1999.

Sorry everyone, the hot link above doesn't work because I screwed up. Please try again:

http://www.y2knews wire.com/cashcomputer.asp

Please be advised that these are official figures from the US Census Bureau and from the Federal Reserve Board (Allan Greenspan)

P.S. Also take into account that the latest Gallup poll contracted by the FDIC revealed that

(1) "46% of people surveyed believe it's likely that Americans will withdraw ALL of their funds from the banks before Jan. 2000"

(2) "20% of people surveyed believe that the banking system will shut down on Jan. 1, 2000"

Got it?

-- George (jvilches@sminter.com.ar), July 23, 1999.

George:

1) I tried hard to tell you that what people believe others might do, and what they actually do themselves, have historically turned out to be wildly different things. The predictive accuracy of such polls is essentially ZERO.

2) Does it really matter if 20% 'believe' the banks will close? Would you believe the moon is made of green cheese if 80% of those polled believed it? The banks say they'll be open, some of them honoring unusual weekend hours. So forgive me if I believe the banks and not the polls. You can believe whoever you want, OK?

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), July 23, 1999.

O.Kay Flint. What about the US Census Bureau figures supported by the Federal Reserve Board data you got at my y2knewswire live link?

Could you please share with us your estimations?

Take care guy

-- George (jvilches@sminter.com.ar), July 23, 1999.

Near as I c'n recollect, we jes stand here a-chewin' our cuds until we hears a gun shot or some thunder close by.

-- A cow (justp@artoftheherd.org), July 23, 1999.

George:

Did you miss the material on Y2kNewsWire and Ariel Marketing and Adams, or did you just choose to ignore it? Sheesh, even when its known, admitted propaganda, you swallow it anyway. But please, this is NOT my problem.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), July 23, 1999.

See a thread I just posted and ask yourself just how long that 20% should wait before they take action.

-- thinkIcan (thinkIcan@make.it), July 23, 1999.

I believe that the businesses that deal in cash, i.e. restaurants, service stations, and countless others,who in likelihood will keep more of their daiy cash, coupled with a relatively small percentage of large organizations that will have cash on hand for one or two weeks payroll, will be more than enough to sink the banks. Thkrough in a small percentage of individuals yanking their money out, and it could be devestating.

-- Mike (boxman9186@aol.com), July 23, 1999.

I guess that it pays to proof read first.

-- Mike (boxman9186@aol.com), July 23, 1999.

George,

Speaking of FACTS, have you seen the FACTS of the calculation algorithm used by the y2knewswire.com cash computer?

Since you preach about FACTS, you surely examined the _exact algorithm_ used by the y2knewswire.com cash computer before posting your OPINION, didn't you? Didn't you?

If you did determine the FACTS about the algorithm used by y2knewswire.com cash computer, will you please post the algorithm so we can all doublecheck it? (You did find out what that algorithm was, didn't you, George? SURELY you didn't just blindly trust that the y2knewswire.com cash computer calculations were correct, did you, George? You're not a computer-trusting polly, are you?)

And, George, if it happens by some remote chance that you actually did *not* bother to determine the FACTS of the algorithm used by the y2knewswire.com cash computer before posting your comments about it, then you'll apologize for presuming to chastise Flint, won't you?

-- No Spam Please (nos_pam_please@hotmail.com), July 23, 1999.

Flint, the answer is 'No', I don't know what Ariel Marketing and Adams are/were all about. Would you please care to explain further? If you think it's pertinent/important I would like to know. Never heard of them. Thanks.

Thank you also for your help in getting to this forum without routing through the www.yourdon.com site (it was down). The hot link I got didn't work either but thanks to your second e-mail I finally realized how easy it was to get through www.greenspun.com, period!

As far as the facts, yes, I did trust the US Census Bureau and the Federal Reserve Board figures presented by Y2Knewswire people. In the event they are wrong or misleading, it would be important to let everyone know about it. Same thing for the algorithm, which can be improved, of course, particularly taking into the account that the rest of the world does exist, and they would also jockey for positions in the US dollar cash demand worldwide. Still, I don't see any ball park change for the subject matter at hand.

-- George (jvilches@sminter.com.ar), July 24, 1999.

George:

Adams runs Ariel Marketing, which sells 'y2k survival' stuff. Adams also runs Y2kNewsWire, which is essentially (one of his) advertising mouthpieces for his products. Bottom line: Adams is hyping y2k to sell y2k products. Pretty clever, huh? Oh well, another goldon idol tarnished. You just don't know who to trust these days.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), July 24, 1999.

Flint, this can't be you old buddy! I want the real Flint!

C'mon, get real. We are talking about math, algorithms, official US Census Bureau data, official Federal Reserve Board data, supply and demand, 1.7% liquidity, fractional reserve banking system... Flint, so what if y2knewswire has got an axe to grind on this?? You may also for that matter????

Flint, above I asked you a couple of very short, down-to-the-point questions. Would you care to answer them, please?

-- George (jvilches@sminter.com.ar), July 24, 1999.

I agree with Flint. And I'm not about to take all our money out of the bank. What the hell good would that do if everything goes down? In that case, it will be worthless anyway.

-- gilda (jess@listbot.com), July 24, 1999.

Gilda, you are wrong twice

(1) Flint has said that he will take his money out of the bank

(2) Cash will be king as the only means of payment. Furthermore this will mean a deflationary economy. Thus prices would fall sharply and cash would increase its purchasing power acordingly.

-- George (jvilches@sminter.com.ar), July 24, 1999.

Sorry, I did not make myself clear. I was agreeing with Flint about y2k Newswire's dubious calculations. The part about not taking our money out of the bank was simply my opinion, and I'm sticking to it.

-- gilda (jess@listbot.com), July 24, 1999.

Do whatever you want Gilda, but obviously Flint must not think that Y2knewswire's calculations are so "dubious" if he's taking his money out of his bank.

Gilda, FDIC has warned, hear me Gilda you are warned: " Once people take their money out of the bank, it's theirs, we can't do anything about it". Gilda, beware, your money is yours!

-- George (jvilches@sminter.com.ar), July 24, 1999.

George:

I see no reason to trust the bank's computers if I don't have to -- best to let someone else test it first. I don't really expect any problems there, but I regard it as an unnecessary risk *for me*. I should emphasize that I don't *have* any money in the bank, and haven't for many years. What I don't spend on preparations I send to the credit card to pay off the big debt I ran up trying (unsuccessfully) to start a small business.

With luck (and being very frugal), I should have those cards paid off by years end, and maybe $500 left over. I'll keep the $500 in my pocket (if I have it at all). If I had $50K or something like that in the bank, I'd probably withdraw a few thousand just in case. We all have to deal with our own circumstances, you know?

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), July 24, 1999.

I agree Flint, I agree. Still, prep wise we are on the same page pretty much. I think that means a lot, don't you?

Take care

-- George (jvilches@sminter.com.ar), July 24, 1999.