RUSSIAN TEST

Russia isn't waiting for deployment of a U.S. national missile defense. On June 3, the Strategic Rocket Forces conducted the seventh flight test of the new Topol-M intercontinental ballistic missile. The Topol is an advanced version of the SS-25, the world's only road-mobile ICBM. The test was successful. U.S. intelligence agencies closely watched the missile's flight path and intercepted radio signals it sent as it flew east from Plesetsk. What was noted: The missile used special high-technology methods that will be used to evade U.S. anti-ballistic missile interceptors. The missile's engine burns for a shorter time during initial boost in an effort to avoid detection and interceptor attack.

Bill Gertz
July 23, 1999
Washington Times

-- Nabi Davidson (nabi7@yahoo.com), July 23, 1999

Answers

So what if the Russians have the demonstrated capability to vaporize a few of our cities? Quit living in the past! It's a new day! It's clear that the Russians are our friends now. It's their intentions that count, not their capabilities.

Besides, everybody knows that their military is irrelevent! (http:// call.army.mil/call/fmso/sof/issues/winter99.htm) Just look how we snookered 'em in the Balkans. They can't even handle the Chetkneeanns (http://call.army.mil/call/fmso/RED-STAR/ISSUES/96OCT/PB30964.HTM) And all the historic, conventional wisdom said "Better stay out of the Balkans - its a quagmire, these Serbs aren't a bunch of Iraquis out for coffee and doughnuts in Koo-wait City." We, we sure showed 'em what a real airforce can do. Didn't even kneed those grunts and ground-pounders. If fact, think how much money this country could save if we just stopped funding everything but the Air Force! Free prescriptions for everybody, on the house - Gruuuveeee, babbbby!

Tell you whut, it's a new day, boyz. Ain't noboddy, yep, noboddy gonna mess whit the good ole US of A. Ain't healthy.

-- Woodpile (whynot@zog.net), July 23, 1999.

I say, fellows, what's this post doing here. This is supposed to be a Y2K forum.

-- King of Spam (slobbering@home.net), July 23, 1999.

Spam, your Majesty:

The geopolitical events now unfolding will be the canvas that Y2K is painted on.

- INVAR, chicken farmer, extremist, AND Philosopher.

-- INVAR (gundark@sw.net), July 23, 1999.

Woodpile,

Maybe you're right, but what happens when they figure out how to "gang up" on us, using China or Korea or whoever?

There is a massive end game powere play going on here(IMHO), and plenty of countries don't want us to be the dominant factor. And by the way, the mighty U. S. of A had quite a struggle(comparatively) with a little pissant(militarily)country like Yugo. Think about that, Nukes aside that is.

-- CygnusXI (noburnt@toast.net), July 23, 1999.

"The geopolitical events now unfolding will be the canvas that Y2K is painted on."

Wow, you ain't just a "chicken farmer, extremist, AND Philosopher," INVAR, you're a poet, too.

(Not to nit-pick, though, I woulda phrased it, "...the canvas on which Y2K is painted.")

-- ace (x@y.z), July 23, 1999.

That is not good news, but thanks for posting it, Nabi.

Woodpile, good satire.

"We, we sure showed 'em what a real airforce can do.

yup, we just blew the hell out of all those cardboard tanks, didn't we? ROTFLMAO.

-- de (delewis@Xinetone.net), July 23, 1999.

Woodpile, and his trusty fool, I mean "foil" bow collectively to "de."

-- Woodpile (whynot@zog.net), July 23, 1999.

Incidentally, the court fool, King of Spam, just nudged me and said to remind you to check out those links. Especially do a little digging in "Red Thrust Star." The Spam King says it's not too late to learn from the experience of others.

-- Woodpile (whynot@zog.net), July 23, 1999.

From what I read a couple of months ago, the Russians and Chinese are integrating their command and control systems, and deepening their alliance with each other. You don't do this lightly, and not if you don't intend to use the forces later.

The Soviets may be a "paper tiger" right now, or maybe not. It's hard to tell, and it may be part of an overall plan to get us to lower our defenses, and make us easy to attack. It's worked, fellas. We have no defense to speak of, versus ICBM or nuke cruise missile attack on CONUS. And no Civil Defense either. Bend over and kiss it goodbye.

If the Soviets supply the missiles, and some naval and air assets, and the Chinese supply the manpower, they could attack us or our interests. Or just take over most of Asia and the Middlfe East.

Hell, all the Soviets would have to do is to launch a few nukes at C3 sites, and a few EMP devices, and the US would effectively be out of the picture. Pop a few at the NATO countries to disable them too, and they wouldn't even have to invade us to cripple us.

As for the mighty NATO alliance, it took them 70+ days to pound into submission a little 2nd world nation that couldn't effectively fight back. oooooh, I'm impressed. Milosovich (sp) got basically the same terms that he was offered in the beginning, and he surrendered his soverignty (and the very valuable mines in Kosovo).

And to do this, NATO stripped most of it's air assets to the bone, and beat the crap out of the infrastructure. Just wait til those NATO-friendly corporations offer to rebuild the place for a measly 50 billion $ or so.

-- Bill (billclo@msgbox.com), July 23, 1999.

Thanks nabi.

These mobile missiles cannot be tracked easily by the U.S. They also can be deployed anywhere by railcar. But the really scary thing is that they can be used from ships.

I talked to Nyquist and he feels the window for attack will be September - December. If it doesn't happen then he feels it will never happen.

-- BB (peace2u@bellatlantic.net), July 24, 1999.

BB - I wish I could agree with your closing statement. The last quarter is actually premature. If I were "them" and the only question left to answer is when (the how isn't that hard) I would definitely wait another 12 months, give or take a few months, maybe.

First, let's deal with the Russian's Y2K problems. I agree they are real. However, don't forget that the Russians have some of the finest computer programmers in the world, and the finest (with all due respect to all the folks out there) aren't really necessary to do remediation. Next, the Russians are not going to put available remediation talent on non-defense efforts. Mitigating y2k effects on the general population or economy? - the leadership just doesn't care. The have never cared about the living conditions of the peasants since before the Czar and they don't now. And, unlike the competition-driven USA remediation marketplace, they do have the leadership capacity, capability and will to focus sufficient remediation efforts on the strategic rocket forces to make them good enough. And good enough is all it takes.

The Russian economy? The real Russian economy is the black market. When I hear gibberish on TV - I think it was two nights ago - that the Russians are irrelevant because their economy is something like the size of Vermonts - Id laugh except for the fact that I think people are actually using that appraisal to gauge what Russias strategic capabilities are.

The timing is wrong for a couple of other reasons.

Yes - the Sino/Soviet alliance is forming, but its not sufficiently formed for a new military body to act in a coordinated, competent and dependable manner. Dont confuse a strategic trend to imply the existence of a military command structure. This stuff takes time, lots of it, and no military bureaucracy is going to war like a blue- light special impulse buy. Remember, too, that for every day they delay, they get stronger while we get weaker. In spite of our military dispersion, comparatively speaking its still a bad bet. And on this kind of crap shoot, you dont want even odds - you want much, much better odds.

Besides, the harvest is still not in yet, and wont be even completely in September. Not only that, but there would be another opportunity for them to buy grains on the world market, probably with U.S.-taxpayer backed credit from American farmers this year. I know Russian crop failures have been exaggerated, but it didnt come to light until after they received the grain shipments. Theyll get more, too. It just wont be as easy as the last time.

U.S. Y2K is the last timing element. The most serious disruptions domestically, with some spectacular exceptions, will not be apparent until several quarters into 2000. Im not saying there wont be refinery explosions, etc. What I am saying is that the full effects of these disruptions will not peak concertedly until several months. Next, the cumulative economic effects will not peak until September next year as well. Again, dont confuse the obvious with the severe. A refinery explosion will be great news, but effects wont peak until later. The economic shock will be immediate, but the cumulative bankruptcies, unemployment and social disruptions will not peak until the fall. Thats when the U.S. will be at its weakest point. Infrastructure problems, international supply problems, social services problems and an election, all rolled up into one big mess. And it wont be just us, it will be the same for our allies, too.

Thats when Id have to push the button, if I were them. Fall next year 2000 will be a much, much greater risk for us than this fall. Waiting longer wont help anymore. As big a mess as y2k will be, this country (once its really stirred up) has demonstrated it can rise to meet national goals AS LONG AS WERE LEFT ALONE TO DO SO. The problem then, as now, will be having the time to start getting things put back together. Things will not go back the way they were, but we can get operational again. So, from the Sino/Soviet viewpoint, waiting is an absolute necessity. Sure well have some terrorist events. But terrorist events do not a first, fatal strike make. Every year past 2000, and the balance starts going the wrong way for them again.

-- Woodpile - no 'foilin' (whynot@zog.net), July 24, 1999.

BB - I wish I could agree with your closing statement. The last quarter is actually premature. If I were "them" and the only question left to answer is when (the how isn't that hard) I would definitely wait another 12 months, give or take a few months, maybe. Woodpile, I would like nothing better than for you to disagree with me. I want to be 100% wrong about this timing of a Russian attack. Yes, if they could wait another year, I'm sure they would love to. As long as Clinton is in office they can afford to wait. The election year will delay any serious congressional or presidential action.

First, let's deal with the Russian's Y2K problems. I agree they are real. However, don't forget that the Russians have some of the finest computer programmers in the world, and the finest (with all due respect to all the folks out there) aren't really necessary to do remediation. Next, the Russians are not going to put available remediation talent on non-defense efforts. Mitigating y2k effects on the general population or economy? - the leadership just doesn't care. The have never cared about the living conditions of the peasants since before the Czar and they don't now. And, unlike the competition-driven USA remediation marketplace, they do have the leadership capacity, capability and will to focus sufficient remediation efforts on the strategic rocket forces to make them good enough. And good enough is all it takes.

Russia's y2k problems are real. They have less than one third remediated much less tested and integrated. I will post an article just recently released that shows they are way behind in remediating their military systems. Furthermore, I still haven't found out if Russia uses the GPS. GPS is rolling over in AUG. and then we don't know if it is y2k compliant. Does Russia have new GPS receivers as our military does?

I will accept your statement that Russia has great programmers and that they are working on their military systems to the neglect of their non-military needs. They have pirated software, source code and embedded systems. Can their programmers deal with this? Is there enough time even if they could? There is no evidennce that they are working on their silo missile systems. I am sure they have plenty of nukes y2k ready but is their air force and navy compliant? What concerns me also is their non-military systems. Are their refineries compliant, their chemical plants, their banks, their water and sewage systems, their transportation systems, their fuel lines systems, and what about their nuclear plants? I agree that they don't care about their people but they need a working infrastructure. For them to ignore their infrastructure to wait another 12 months doesn't make sense to me. You will have to offer me some proof that they can use their rocket forces past the 1-1 rollover for me to believe your theory and reject Nyquist although the logic of what you say makes sense. I just need some evidence.

The Russian economy? The real Russian economy is the black market. When I hear gibberish on TV - I think it was two nights ago - that the Russians are irrelevant because their economy is something like the size of Vermonts - Id laugh except for the fact that I think people are actually using that appraisal to gauge what Russias strategic capabilities are.

AMEN.

The timing is wrong for a couple of other reasons.

Yes - the Sino/Soviet alliance is forming, but its not sufficiently formed for a new military body to act in a coordinated, competent and dependable manner. Dont confuse a strategic trend to imply the existence of a military command structure. This stuff takes time, lots of it, and no military bureaucracy is going to war like a blue- light special impulse buy. Remember, too, that for every day they delay, they get stronger while we get weaker. In spite of our military dispersion, comparatively speaking its still a bad bet. And on this kind of crap shoot, you dont want even odds - you want much, much better odds.

I tend to agree with you on this point. I don't believe Russia and China can ever trust each other. But we don't know their strategy. They could decide to make a deal: China gets SE Asia and the pacific basis and Russia gets Europe. To do this they must take out the U.S. military. Now if y2k is concern for both of these countries, then they are forced to work out a agreement soon. The evidence is that Chinese and Russian diplomats and high officials have been flying back and forth in high level negotiations. The truth is that China is now ready to take Taiwan and N.Korea has a million troops on the DMZ border (JCOS Shelton). Iraq is also making noises. The terrorists are in waiting. Russian commandos and weapons are already here. According to Nyquist, our CIA is finally achieving some successes in dismantling some of the Russian apparatus in this country. This in itself has to move Russia's timetable up. The CIA, asleep for so long, believing communism was dead, and led by Democrats, is now waking up, realizing that the Bear was not dead but only hiding. As for the longer they wait, the weaker we get. That is changing in the intelligence community and in congress.

Besides, the harvest is still not in yet, and wont be even completely in September. Not only that, but there would be another opportunity for them to buy grains on the world market, probably with U.S.-taxpayer backed credit from American farmers this year. I know Russian crop failures have been exaggerated, but it didnt come to light until after they received the grain shipments. Theyll get more, too. It just wont be as easy as the last time. True.

But they have already stockpiled tons of grain, oil, gold, and fur. This years crop will be in by October.

U.S. Y2K is the last timing element. The most serious disruptions domestically, with some spectacular exceptions, will not be apparent until several quarters into 2000. Im not saying there wont be refinery explosions, etc. What I am saying is that the full effects of these disruptions will not peak concertedly until several months. Next, the cumulative economic effects will not peak until September next year as well. Again, dont confuse the obvious with the severe. A refinery explosion will be great news, but effects wont peak until later. The economic shock will be immediate, but the cumulative bankruptcies, unemployment and social disruptions will not peak until the fall. Thats when the U.S. will be at its weakest point. Infrastructure problems, international supply problems, social services problems and an election, all rolled up into one big mess. And it wont be just us, it will be the same for our allies, too.

I believe that when Russia decides to attack, one of the first things they will do is explode an EMP bomb and fry our electronics. At that point we will be at our weakest. This will be especially so if our military responds to the threats overseas and deploys its military.

Thats when Id have to push the button, if I were them. Fall next year 2000 will be a much, much greater risk for us than this fall. Waiting longer wont help anymore. As big a mess as y2k will be, this country (once its really stirred up) has demonstrated it can rise to meet national goals AS LONG AS WERE LEFT ALONE TO DO SO. The problem then, as now, will be having the time to start getting things put back together. Things will not go back the way they were, but we can get operational again. So, from the Sino/Soviet viewpoint, waiting is an absolute necessity. Sure well have some terrorist events. But terrorist events do not a first, fatal strike make. Every year past 2000, and the balance starts going the wrong way for them again.

If they could wait past the rollover and hit us then, that would be the best time. But this assumes that their military and mission critical infrastructure systems are y2k ready. I don't believe it is or will be. Sorry woodpile...its the last quarter of 99 or never.

======================================================================

Yahoo! July 20, 1999

Russia's Northern Fleet, which bristles with nuclear weapons, lacks funds to deal with the millennium bug, says Bellona environmental, a Norwegian group. Bellona said the fleet's warning systems are especially vulnerable, which could lead computers to make false reports of missile attacks.

In 1995, Russia was on the verge of launching a nuclear counterstrike when it mistook a harmless weather rocket fired from Norway for a NATO missile.

The Northern Fleet is based on the Kola Peninsula of northwestern Russia, and operates 40 nuclear-powered submarines and three nuclear surface ships, according to Bellona, which specializes in studying the region.

``The authorities are trying to give the impression that they are doing something in hopes of calming the population. Unfortunately, Russia is far behind the West in solving this problem,'' Bellona researcher Igor Kudrik was quoted as telling the Norwegian news agency NTB.

Russia has acknowledged that most of the nation's vital computer systems probably will not be ready for 2000.

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-- BB (peace2u@bellatlantic.net), July 24, 1999.

Sorry, for the above confusion. I typed my reply to Woodpile in bold but it didn't come out that way. Maybe a sysop could help us here. BB

-- BB (peace2u@bellatlantic.net), July 24, 1999.