Y2K Glitch Likely To Disrupt Trade: U.S. Officialgreenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread |
Y2K Glitch Likely To Disrupt Trade: U.S. OfficialUpdated 6:40 PM ET July 21, 1999By Jim Wolf
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The 2000 computer glitch is likely to disrupt the worldwide flow of goods and services, perhaps sparking havoc and unrest in some countries, a top State Department official said in remarks prepared for Congress and obtained Wednesday.
With less than six months left before the technology-challenging date change, "the global picture that is slowly emerging is cause for concern," said Jacquelyn Williams-Bridgers, the State Department's inspector general.
"Our assessments suggest that the global community is likely to experience varying degrees of Y2K-related failures in every sector, in every region and at every economic level," she said.
Y2K is short for the glitch that may cause computers to mistake 2000 for 1900, the result of an old programming shortcut that used only a two-digit date field. Simulations have shown that some systems may crash or cause errors starting on Jan. 1.
In some unnamed countries "there is a clear risk that electricity, telecommunications and other key systems will fail, perhaps creating economic havoc and social unrest," Williams-Bridgers said.
She made her comments in written testimony prepared for a hearing on global corporate readiness Thursday before a special Senate panel looking into the problem. An advance copy was obtained by Reuters.
"Y2K-related disruptions in the international flow of goods and services are likely," she said, adding that "a breakdown in any part of the supply chain would have a serious impact on the U.S. and world economies."
The international economy is "vulnerable" because Y2K-related failures in the supply chains of one country or region could disrupt others' ability to keep factories working, transportation systems running, food supplied and people employed, the State Department's inspector general added.
Calling for contingency planning on a global scale, Williams-Bridgers said authorities should apply "lessons learned from recent disasters" such as the 1996 earthquake in Kobe, Japan, to cope with potential disruptions.
Williams-Bridgers, whose office has been assessing international Y2K readiness, did not name the countries said to be most at risk of encountering social upheavals.
But she said key sectors in the republics of the former Soviet Union and other former Eastern bloc nations have "a relatively high probability of Y2K-related failures."
Industrialized countries, on the other hand, were generally found to be at low risk of having Y2K-related infrastructure failures, particularly in the finance sector.
Still, 11 of 39 of these countries were reported to be at "medium risk" of encountering transportation failures. And nine of 39 were reported to be at a medium or high risk of failure in telecommunications, energy or water services.
From 52 to 68 developing countries out of the 98 rated were said to have a medium or high risk of Y2K-related failure in the telecommunications, transportation and/or energy sectors.
But "the relatively low level of computerization in key sectors of the developing world may reduce the risk of prolonged infrastructure failures," Williams-Bridgers said.
Overall about half of the 161 countries assessed by U.S. officials were reported to be at medium to high risk of Y2K-related failures in their telecommunications, energy and/or transportation sectors.
To assess others' readiness, U.S. diplomats used a standard survey to collect information on host countries' Y2K programs, vulnerability to short-term economic and social turmoil, reliance on technology in key infrastructure sectors and the status of Y2K corrective efforts.
Williams-Bridgers said the State Department planned to notify "select" nations of its concerns about Y2K-related problems that could affect American citizens living or traveling abroad.
The department's Bureau of Consular Affairs "will bring those concerns to the attention of the traveling public in September," when it begins blowing the whistle on nations it views as Y2K laggards, she said.
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Ray
-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), July 21, 1999
Ouch!See... Senate Committee Meetings/Hearings Scheduled
http://www.senate.gov/legislative/ legis_legis_committees.htmlUnder... Thursday, Jul. 22, 1999
10 a.m.
Year 2000 Technology Problem
To hold hearings on the impact of Year 2000 on global corporations. < br> SD-192
Watch Committee Hearing LIVE on Readiness of Global Corporations for Y2K July 22, 10:00 a.m.
http://www.senate.gov/~y2k/
-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), July 21, 1999.
Thanks Diane, I don't think the gravity of this article can be underestimated. As the premier consumer nation we will be effected severly.Ray
-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), July 21, 1999.
Link for the article:"Y2K Glitch Likely To Disrupt Trade: U.S. Official"
-- Linkmeister (link@librarian.edu), July 21, 1999.
Does this come as a surprise to anyone? It shouldn't, if you have been visiting this forum regularly for over two days! It is virtually a given that there will be some disruptions in the world. Some of those will be in places that we trade with...
-- Mad Monk (madmonk@hawaiian.net), July 21, 1999.
Biography: Jacquelyn Williams-Bridgers
Inspector General
(Assistant Secretaries of State or Equivalent to Assistant Secretary)
http://www.state.gov/www/about_state/biography/ bridgers.htmlWelcome to the Office of Inspector General World Wide Website
http:// www.state.gov/www/dept/oig/main.html
-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), July 21, 1999.
See also...U.S. State Department, Official Web Site - The Official web site of the United States State Department
http://www.state.gov/Links to Other Sources of Y2K Information (Secretary of State)
http://travel.state.gov/ y2kca.htmlSearch (on Y2K or Year 2000 computer problem)
http:// www.info.gov/cgi-bin/search_state/
-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), July 21, 1999.
If I may offer an additional comment as to the significance of the above story it is this:If I understand the above posts correctly, the Senate is making testimony of this hearing available (as it did with the Community Preparedness Hearing on May 25, 1999) to the public as a live video/audio transmission.
This probably means it will be archived. If people missed it, they will be able to view it later.
This is a "clue-by-four" as to the significance of this hearing.
After the hearing is over, watch the Senate site for the written witness statements, submitted in advance, i.e., the "drafts" of testimony. If history tells us anything, these statements will carry the same "tone" but will differ from what is actually stated in oral remarks before the Committee.
A few days from now, the actual oral testimony will surface.
(But this time guys--I'm not transcribing! I'll leave that to those who are PAID for that particular brand of torture!)
Next one to watch? Utilities. Coming soon to a Senate Hearing room near you. . .
:)
-- FM (vidprof@aol.com), July 21, 1999.
One other interesting footnote:It is perhaps an interesting observation that the upcoming Senate hearing:
August 4 -- Utilities' Y2K Preparedness
has been rescheduled.
I seem to remember making a mental note that this hearing was originally scheduled to coincide with the release of the final NERC report on the status of utilities in the U.S. I think that report is due out at the end of the July. Anybody remember the release date of the final NERC report, and the original date of this Senate Hearing?
One way or another, we know that this is the last Senate Y2k Committee hearing before the Summer recess which is usually a time for vacations and visiting with constituents back home.
Keep in mind, folks, that the Senate is a powerful body of U.S. government. Many people remember Henry Hyde describing it as "Mount Olympus."
Let's all keep a close watch on them in the months ahead. 'Might not be a bad time to look up your locals and bookmark their Web sites.
:)
-- FM (vidprof@aol.com), July 21, 1999.
After living for most of my life in a maritime country and two very significant maritime cities in the US, I am acutely aware of how much foreign trade goes on. I am slowly stocking up on shoes, clothes and linens--and my particular diabetes medicine, manufactured in France, an industrialized country which, I understand, is further behind than most.Even if you buy only "Made in USA" products, you will find prices rising alarmingly if there is any slowdown or termination of trade between the US and its supplier countries (like China, Indonesia, India, Mexico, Brazil). Less supply = more demand = higher prices.
As I recall, there was a hearing or report from Williams-Bridgers a few months ago. The situation seems a little more critical now than it was then.
I'm not even going to think about oil right now. . .
-- Old Git (anon@spamproblems.com), July 21, 1999.
Oil - it is, IMHO, the basis for our "life as we know it". It enables our JIT system - chemicals - energy (even if your power plant burns coal, the trains hauling the coal use diesel,etc,etc, etc,etc). It is my guess that there will be serious disruptions for 30-45 days...then a "rebound" period of a few months - then the oil will begin to run out, along with gasoline, diesel, fertilizer, and on and on and on. I can seriously see a lack of food harvest next year, and a serious lack of food transportation systems. Old Git: better get your tea now; I'm betting it won't be available next year(along with coffee)
-- jeanne (jeanne@hurry.now), July 21, 1999.
Mad MonkI agree that this is expected information for many of us. OTOH think of the millions that remain clueless. Many think this issue has been resolved and have not bothered to worry. This is thanks to the massive spin campaign.
At some point truth was bound to meet fiction. From this point forward there will be more of the truth as it becomes harder to hide. Earlier Ed mentioned that he had understimated the ability of companies to cover up problems. This has also been true of governments.
Keep in mind that a number of these honest reports may be necessary to overcome the damage done by the spinners of fiction. However this may not apply to those in the financial community who have very sensitive hearing and a healthy dose of self-preservation.
I would think that this remark would cause some immediate concern.
"The international economy is "vulnerable" because Y2K-related failures in the supply chains of one country or region could disrupt others' ability to keep factories working, transportation systems running, food supplied and people employed, the State Department's inspector general added."
Knowing this to be a relatively cautious statement, fund managers who have previously ignored y2k will no longer have that luxury. They have now been warned and must protect the assets of the funds or risk meltdown.
Again, this may take a little time to perculate and simmer, but not too much longer I think. Just a matter of "when".
-- Mike Lang (webflier@erols.com), July 21, 1999.
Flint, Poole, Decker, Anita, Marma, Hoffmeister... we don't hear you?Wheeeerre aaaarrre youuuuuuuuuuu????
-- George (jvilches@sminter.com.ar), July 22, 1999.
If I wanted an article to convince somebody (spouse?) that Y2K "might be a problem" this would be it. Happily, next Wednesday, my county is providing a Y2K "awareness" meeting which has even more impact where I live, so I can skip this one...
-- Anonymous99 (Anonymous99@Anonymous99.xxx), July 22, 1999.
This article is up at the Wash Post now: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp- srv/business/longterm/y2k/y2k.htm.
-- Lane Core Jr. (elcore@sgi.net), July 22, 1999.
OK, kids! It's time to play "Find the disconnect"Two news reports out of Washington. Same day, hours apart.
Greenspan talks to congress:
"...But in an upbeat assessment of the global economy, Greenspan also said that risks from overseas were easing.
``The risks of further major disruptions to financial and trade flows that had concerned the FOMC when it eased policy last fall have clearly diminished,'' he said.
But the recovery overseas would also boost prices for commodities and other imported goods, he added. ``Improving global prospects also mean that the U.S. economy will no longer be experiencing declines in basic commodity and import prices that held down inflation in recent years,'' he said. ..."
but on the other hand...
Jacquelyn Williams-Bridgers, the State Department's inspector general talks to congress:
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The 2000 computer glitch is likely to disrupt the worldwide flow of goods and services, perhaps sparking havoc and unrest in some countries, a top State Department official said in remarks prepared for Congress and obtained Wednesday.
With less than six months left before the technology-challenging date change, ``the global picture that is slowly emerging is cause for concern,'' said Jacquelyn Williams-Bridgers, the State Department's inspector general.......
``Y2K-related disruptions in the international flow of goods and services are likely,'' she said, adding that ``a breakdown in any part of the supply chain would have a serious impact on the U.S. and world economies.''
The international economy is ``vulnerable'' because Y2K-related failures in the supply chains of one country or region could disrupt others' ability to keep factories working, transportation systems running, food supplied and people employed, the State Department's inspector general added.
(irony)
It's pronouncements like this that show me how my confidence in the federal government's ability to manage Y2K's impact is not misplaced.
(/irony)
Unbelievable.
-- Lewis (aslanshow@yahoo.com), July 22, 1999.
Lewis,Yet another Infowar Medal of Honor bestowed upon a Yourdonite. Congrats.
Thanks for the catch.
-- Deborah (infowars@yahoo.com), July 22, 1999.
Jes' curioso... where's Y2KPro, Decker, and Poole? Drowning their sorrows at the local noncompliant tavern? -RT
-- Rodin's Thinker (Curious@george.com), July 22, 1999.
Two different "heads" of the govt, two different objectives, and thus two different voices:The Fed (Greenspan) is in the "stable markets" business, so he speaks in such a way as to increase the chances of a "soft(er) landing". Market instability right now would have serious adverse impacts, and events will overtake speeches soon enough. I wish him the best of luck.
State (Wiiliams-Bridger) is in the "storm warning" business vis-a-vis US interests internationally, so she speaks in such a way as to encourage all affected parties to prepare themselves for what looks like very heavy weather. I wish her good luck and Godspeed.
-- Mac (sneak@lurk.hid), July 22, 1999.