Gold/Silvergreenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread
One day I'm convinced to buy silver and gold and the next day I read articles that are contrary to that opinion. Can anyone convince me as to which side of the proverbial fence I should be?
-- Abigail Radney (Radney@Cwix.com), July 21, 1999
I've got one foot on each side!
-- Johnny (JLJTM@BELLSOUTH.NET), July 21, 1999.
Gold will be valuable AFTER y2k hits, and for a short time before. Its a long term investment for the other side of y2k, so you can have some capital leverage.
-- whoanelly (firstname.lastname@example.org), July 21, 1999.
Abigail, the future of gold is being hotly debated all over the net. Your guess is as good as anyone elses'. There's little agreement. A few coins probably wouldn't hurt if you can afford them, but I suggest you not spend more money than you can afford to kiss off, just in case gold tanks forever (which I don't think it will).
If you decide to buy gold, try this site: www.ajpm.com I've used them & they're excellent (no I'm not connected with them).
-- shiney (email@example.com), July 21, 1999.
My opinion may be worth what you paid for it, but here goes.
Do not buy gold or silver as an investment to make money. It is a much better vehicle for hedging you against the risk of losing all your money when the economy's needle hits a red zone.
As a hedge-type of investment, it is better if you never put more than 10% - 15% of your investment money in gold. Don't put any of the money you use to cover your living expenses into gold, just investment money you don't need to touch for a while.
If Y2K actually gets bad enough to destroy the financial system and the value of the US dollar, gold and silver are likely to be less valuable to you than a basement full of useful stuff. At least for the first several years gold and silver would be treated as barter items in such a scenario, not so much as money.
In a more "normal" outcome for Y2K, gold will hedge you against market conditions where people are afraid and cannot see any long-term safe investments, such as sharply inflationary times, or the onset of a depression, before it bottoms out.
It should be one of the last preps you consider. Or so I say.
-- Brian McLaughlin (firstname.lastname@example.org), July 21, 1999.
Would Warren Buffett(second richest man in the world) purchase 179.2 million ounces of silver and take physical possession, if it was a bad investment? I rest my case.
-- nospam (email@example.com), July 21, 1999.
No, we cannot convince you. You have to make up your own mind. It's your money, Abigail!
........."Silver is one such market and it is the reason that our forecasts have been so accurate for quite some time now. Subscribers know of our overall bearish outlook, which we've explained in the newsletter and in XXXXXX. Over the next weeks and months, silver should work its way lower and fall below 4.500. Ultimately the 3.500 level will be breached before a multi-year low is recorded.
Date: Today. From an anaylst who thinks Mr. Buffett may be right -- long term -- but who sees things getting a lot worse before they get better. That's why the advice to only put a little money into precious metals is wise. You may not turn a profit for a while.
FWIW, I bought silver in 1971-2 (before the Hunts tried to corner the market) at about $3.50......Let's see: 1999-1972 = 27 years, all at the same price. To show you how smart I am, I had leveraged several bags of silver coins and some bars. I sold it at about $4 in order to buy furniture after I returned to the US, and watched it rise to $50. Between leverage and appreciation, I had a million dollar couch. LOL
That said, gold/silver are good hedges against hyperinflation, and they are extremely valuable in times when your life might depend on being able to bribe someone (as many Asians found out during the days of Vietnam and following, when a gold coin or two was the only ticket accepted on the last flight out.)
So, what your probably should do depends a lot on your intent.
-- de (firstname.lastname@example.org), July 21, 1999.
The Permanent Shortage Of Silver, By Ted Butler
Half a century ago, at the end of World War II, total known stocks of silver amounted to ten billion ounces ... Today, known stocks of silver have shrunk over 95%, to maybe a half a billion ounces. The nine and a half billion ounce draw down in total silver inventory, was the result of the persistent shortfall between supply and demand, which continues to this day. Not coincidentally, the current 200 million-ounce annual deficit in silver mirrors the long-term trend line average...... In summary, we have an indispensable ingredient of modern life in a structural supply deficit that has been fifty years in the making, with no chance of real balance except at prices many times current price levels, which in turn are at an inflation adjusted 50 year low. That alone would represent a scenario that was bullish beyond extreme. In order to distill my message I have intentionally avoided reference to the things people normally discuss in the debate on silver, such as, inflation, currencies, war, the stock market, hedge funds, Y2K, world economic crises, etc. I've tried to stick to bedrock fundamentals, industrial production, consumption and inventories.
see also: http://www.gold-eagle.com/research/butlerndx.html). The
-- alan (email@example.com), July 21, 1999.
Nospam: I agree re: Warren Buffet, however, he probably didn't need to choose between investing in silver and buying some preps.
-- DaveW (firstname.lastname@example.org), July 21, 1999.
Gold is a heck of alot more portable than silver. That may be an important consideration at a later date. The only one who should convince you is yourself. Best of luck to you.
-- Gia (email@example.com), July 21, 1999.
A picture is worth a thousand words
-- Nathan (firstname.lastname@example.org), July 22, 1999.