I'm starting a new post to answer superlurker, because what started out as a good question has really deterioriated.

First, my credentials. I think more people will die New Year's Eve from alcohol-related accidents in the US than will die in the year 2000 in the world from Y2K-related accidents (if people act as they have in the past.) That includes the guy in 93 or 95 who committed suicide (Y2K-related?????)

I also say this: Anybody who prepares for Y2K is a fool. Anybody who does not prepare for ANY AND EVERY sort of emergency is a BIGGER fool. (In other words, we should all always be prepared much more and much better than we are.) If you feel you need to twist that to say that I am telling people not to prepare, have a go at it, but remember I have better things to do with my time that argue with you about it.

Do I qualify as am optimist??

I would tell the mother just what Cherri said. Continue to buy in bulk when things are on sale, comparison shop, and have lots of non-perishables on hand. (With 4 kids at home, if you don't already live that way, you won't be worried on Dec 27.)

The father can do what he wants with his money. I'm leaving mine in the bank, as always. I may only get 1% interest, but if it is under my mattress, I only get a backache.

The brokerage house. I'm pulling out of my money market funds. About Dec 20 when everybody pulls out, I'm running down and putting everything I can spare in. Jan 8 or 10 when there is a big confidence spike, I'm pulling it all out again, and trying to hang on to my obscene profit until I need it to see me through the recession of July or August.

-- walt (but my e-mail is down til next week) (walt@lcs.k12.ne.us), July 20, 1999

Answers

This thread explores that Y2K won't exactly happen in a vacuum...... from 'a'.

-- Lisa (lisa@work.now), July 20, 1999.

"The people who see Y2K as a possible end of the world are people who may feel disenfranchised, who want to be survivors. They want to feel that they see something that the rest of us don't. This ties in with some fundamentalist Christian beliefs. These people on the fringes of society may have big fantasies about people getting what they deserve."

-- (doomers@suck.com), July 20, 1999.

Holy Cow, the PROFESSIONAL Polly/Trolls are really scrambling here. Fuse is getting mighty short for you folks.

Walt, do you work for one of those Wall Street outfits, you sure sound like some of those SHILLS on CNBC !!

Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), July 20, 1999.

doomers@suck.com = Y2K Pro

see the thread at Y2k Pro May Be Gone for Good. If so, Thank God.

Also see my response to his (Hines') pathetic quote.

-- Jim (x@x.x), July 20, 1999.

"[some] people ... see Y2K as a possible end of the world ... people who may feel disenfranchised, who want to be survivors."

Perfectly true with the above amendment. There are some who want the end of the world. These may indeed feel disenfranchised, looking for their day in the sun, looking forward to rejecting others' pleas for help as they feel they have been rejected in the past. What a power trip, to say "die, scum!" while pointing a gun. But there are people like that in any random group, people with minds deformed and scarred by their experience of life. There are some who go into child care to satisfy sexual urges. There are some who go into police work because they are control freaks.

Pollies' error is in thinking this summarizes all people who are preparing for Y2k. Most who prepare for Y2k do so because they have reasonable fears of its effects. Most child care workers care about children. Most cops are doing what they can to keep our society functioning.

True, you should be prepared for all emergencies that might hit you. Figuring out what those are is a lifetime exercise in prudence and planning. At present, the most likely emergency seems to be Y2k disruptions, so that's what we're preparing for. We live in earthquake country, and had two in the last couple weeks, so earthquake preparedness is a close second for us.

Pollies seem to talk about "right" and "wrong" too much, as if being wrong is the worst possible thing that can happen. I wonder what in their lives made being wrong so traumatic that it becomes a curse word for them. I've been wrong before, and I'd be delighted to be wrong about Y2k.

-- bw (home@puget.sound), July 20, 1999.

BW,

Congrats on your thoughts...

Ditto here....

loungin' on the porch...

The Dog

-- Dog (Desert Dog@-sand.com), July 20, 1999.

I do not remotely want the end of the world or to see a bunch of innocent people die. I am a scientist, not a religious fanatic. Having 90% of what the government currently does come to a permanent end -- now, as a believer in the vision the Founding Fathers had (including their Constitution, unlike most people in government today) that would be fine. For a complete version of this, read Thomas Jefferson, the Federalist Papers, Ayn Rand, and Robert Ringer. For a decent (if imperfect) short version, take a look at this:

The Bill of No Rights

We, the sensible people of the United States, in an attempt to help everyone get along, restore some semblance of justice, avoid any more riots, keep our nation safe, promote positive behavior and secure the blessings of debt-free liberty to ourselves and our great-great-great grandchildren, hereby try one more time to ordain and establish some common sense guidelines for the terminally whiny, guilt-ridden, delusional and other cry-baby, bleeding hearts. We hold these truths to be self-evident, that a whole lot of people were confused by the Bill of Rights and are so dim that they require a Bill of No Rights.

ARTICLE I: You do not have the right to a new car, big screen TV or any other form of wealth. More power to you if you can legally acquire them, but no one is guaranteeing you anything.

ARTICLE II: You do not have the right to never be offended. This country is based on freedom, and that means freedom for everyone - not just you! You may leave the room, turn the channel, express a different opinion, etc., but the World is full of idiots, and probably always will be.

ARTICLE III: You do not have the right to be free from harm. If you stick a screwdriver in your eye, learn to be more careful, do not expect the tool manufacturer to make you and all your relatives independently wealthy.

ARTICLE IV: You do not have the right to free food and housing. Americans are the most charitable people to be found, and will gladly help anyone in need, but we are quickly growing weary of subsidizing generation after generation of professional couch potatoes who achieve nothing more than than the creation of another generation of professional couch potatoes.

ARTICLE V: You do not have the right to free health care. That would be nice, but from the looks of public housing, we're just not interested in health care.

ARTICLE VI: You do not have the right to physically harm other people. If you kidnap, rape, intentionally maim or kill someone, don't be surprised if the rest of us want to see you fry in the electric chair.

ARTICLE VII: You do not have the right to the possessions of others. If you rob, cheat or coerce away the goods or services of other citizens, don't be surprised if the rest of us get together and lock you away in a place where you still won't have the right to a big-screen color TV or life of leisure. {Now if we would only do this to people who try to use the courts or legislatures to take money from people...}

ARTICLE VIII: You don't have the right to demand that our children risk their lives in foreign wars to soothe your aching conscience. We hate oppressive governments and won't lift a finger to stop you from going to fight if you'd like. However, we do not enjoy parenting the entire world and do not want to spend so much of our time battling each and every little tyrant with a military uniform and a funny hat.

ARTICLE IX: You don't have the right to a job. All of us sure want all of you to have one, and will gladly help you along in hard times, but we expect you to take advantage of the opportunities of education and vocational training laid before you to make yourself useful.

ARTICLE X: You do not have the right to happiness. Being an American means that you have the right to pursue happiness - which by the way, is a lot easier if you are unencumbered by an overabundance of idiotic laws created by those of you who were confused by the Bill of Rights.

www.y2ksafeminnesota.com

-- MinnesotaSmith (y2ksafeminnesota@hotmail.com), July 20, 1999.

Yoh,walt, First, my credentials. I think more people will die New Year's Eve from alcohol-related accidents in the US than will die in the year 2000 in the world from Y2K-related accidents (if people act as they have in the past.) That includes the guy in 93 or 95 who committed suicide (Y2K-related?????)

What have your credentials to do with how people die? Your credentials are a resume, supposed to provide some indication of your background or your level of expertise in a subject. What you've provided are your thoughts on the subject, without providing one fact to illustrate why we should pay any attention to you.

After that dishointed beginning, why should I read further?

-- de (delewis@Xinetone.net), July 20, 1999.

BW: I can tell you why I'm here. Urging people to prepare for Y2K is morally reprehensible. Here's why: Y2K seems to be a problem that could actually happen, even to people who don't normally live prudently. Therefore, they might make some preparations, even some that they can't afford. When Jan rolls around, unless the world completely ends, things will get back to normal someday. (We all believe that, I think.) Then, all that stored food, all that good prep will go out the window. What will happen to those poeple when the next hurricane, earthquake, winter storm, two-weeks-without-electricity-because-of-snow (or heatwave) comes around, and all their preps have been ditched because Y2K has come and gone?? They will be worse than before. Or what if the rollover isn't serious? Those people will never be convinced to prepare for anything again in their lives.

The morally responsible action is to prepare not for Y2K, but for an emergency that might happen next week, or not until 2003. I personally think the real problem will be a severe recession (Y2K caused) in late summer or fall. I think Ed is going to start saying about the same thing (my wild guess). But if people are urged to prepare for Y2K, that means Jan, and they won't be ready for July. So I repeat, DO NOT prepare for Y2K, become more self-sufficient for ANY emergency, and don't say oh well, it was all for nothing when Jan 5 rolls around.

DE superlurker called for a polly to answer him. I was establishing my credentials as a polly.

-- walt (walt@lcs.k12.ne.us), July 21, 1999.

What will happen to those poeple when the next hurricane, earthquake, winter storm, two-weeks-without-electricity-because-of-snow (or heatwave) comes around, and all their preps have been ditched because Y2K has come and gone?? They will be worse than before. Or what if the rollover isn't serious? Those people will never be convinced to prepare for anything again in their lives.

That is almost too ludicrous to comment on. So you're saying that most people buy home or car insurance, then when the year goes by without a claim, they never buy insurance again? What planet did you grow up on?

-- I'm (laughing@you..), July 21, 1999.

I'm:

If people are prepared for emergencies, why is this forum here?

-- walt (walt@lcs.k12.ne.us), July 21, 1999.

I'm :

If everybody is adequately prepared for emergencies, why does this forum even exist?

-- walt (walt@lcs.k12.ne.us), July 21, 1999.

Hey Walt, I'll play the game of 'what if's' with you. I have personally verified that the 3 counties that I live and work in and around will not be able to handle an emergency of more than a few days. (The towns are not planning on doing much else than assisting their own workers) Their capacity to feed, warm and house large numbers of people is not there. When asked, they admit to it, but even with 5+ months to go, they are doing nothing about it. It has to do with lack of funds, and a general disbelief in anything that bad could happen. They obviously didn't read the account of the Ice Storm and the Canadian town that went through a very bad electrical outage for 5 weeks in the dead of winter.

So, what if most people, which I believe is the case, do not prepare and cannot sustain themselves (our area is mountainous and elevations range from 6k to 8k) longer than 3-5 days? What are we going to do? Where are we going to go?

Are you telling me we'd be nuts to prepare for, say, 2 weeks of electrical disruptions, frequent persisting supply shortages, and a host of minor inconveniences? I think I'd be nuts not to, but then I believe in personal responsibility. I don't like the idea of asking for help, especially if I suspect there could be trouble ahead.

My favorite one liner...says it all. IT AIN'T THE ODDS, IT'S THE STAKES.

-- OR (orwelliator@biosys.net), July 21, 1999.

OR:

That's not my reading of what Walt is saying. At your elevation, a serious blizzard could trap you for two weeks. Everyone in your area should *always* be prepared for this, if they're sensible.

Where I disagree with walt is in assessment of the maximum 'normal' risk. Not only might y2k disruptions exceed that risk, but they might well be *in addition* to such a risk -- you just might *have* that blizzard just as y2k is doing its worst.

I don't see any problem with regarding y2k as a seriously unusual threat, for which seriously unusual precautions should be taken.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), July 21, 1999.

Walt,

I think you're right about the recession. I don't tell people to just prep for 1/1/2000 and then forget it. We're telling people to be ready for earthquakes and storms and a Y2k depression.

My sister is a flight attendant. She's ready for Y2k which for her means not having any work at all next year.

Ready for Y2k also means having enough food so you don't have to go to the grocery store in December, enough so if you miss a couple months' pay you'll still eat.

Y2k is not a big or little bump that happens January 1 and then everything's ok. Y2k may hurt us real bad for several years. This is going to be a very messy emergency.

-- bw (home@puget.sound), July 26, 1999.