Poole has lost it: "Open letter to Ed Yourdon"

greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread

When I start to feel that maybe I'm going a bit too far in all this preparation for Y2K, I go over to the Debunking Y2K site and see what the opposite end of the spectrum is saying. After ten minutes or so, chuckling, shaking my head, and saying things like, "Bloody hell, fellah!" I realize I'm perfectly sane and go on about my business.

Today was an exceptional trip. Following an intriguing link, I found this at Poole's website:


An Open Letter To Ed Yourdon


If any one name is synonymous with "Y2K," it would be yours (save, perhaps, for Gary Norths'). That has made you a target, and yes, I've poked fun at you quite frequently on this site. Maybe you think I've gone too far at times.

Yeah, maybe I have. I'll admit it. I'm even willing to do something about it; read on.

You have a large following (even at this late date). With a following comes responsibility; you can't escape this. Whether you like it or not, you are responsible for how many of your followers are behaving.

Here's the problem.

These people have read Time Bomb 2000 and the materials at your Web site and, in some cases, have decided to quit their jobs and spend their life savings preparing for Y2K. But that's the least of it; I have received email reports of girls who've had abortions because they didn't want to raise a child in Y2K. I've heard from senior citizens on fixed incomes (they can't prepare, not they way your followers recommend!) who've lived in constant fear since this whole thing started. There have even been suicides.

You know these things are happening, Ed. It's time for them to stop.

And the spotlight now falls on Ed Yourdon: you can be the hero.

It might surprise you to learn that, when you made your predictions for January 1, April 1 and July 1, I actually agreed with you. I felt that these dates would be critical tests of how well IT and CS professionals around the world were handling the Y2K problem.

You knew it, too -- otherwise, you'd never have made the predictions in the first place, right?

You can sit back in silence now and watch people like Cory Hamasaki and Steve Heller play down these non-events, but you know better.

Repeat: you KNOW better, Ed.

I'm calling on those decades of experience now. Forget these other people. This isn't even between you and me; forget Stephen Poole. I'm just a noisy guy who lives in Alabama.

This is between you and the Truth (with a capital "T").

Ed, you know that the lack of substantial failures on these dates means that Y2K isn't going to be nearly as serious as you originally believed. The fact that dozens of foreign countries -- many of which are "Third World" nations which are supposedly farther behind us in remediation -- haven't had any major problems is an even bigger indication.

This may be something that you'd really prefer not to admit, but deep down inside, you know. And it's time for you to state this publicly.

It doesn't matter if you add the provisio that people should still prepare for some disruptions. In spite of what my detractors say, I recommend that myself. I don't expect you to become as much of a Polly as I am.

It's not enough to wait until next year and then say, "I was wrong." By that time, it'll be too late for a lot of people (and your reputation).

Here's the deal: you do it -- word it however you like; leave in the need for modest preparations, whatever -- and I'll remove any stuff from this Web site which you might find personally offensive.

You don't even have to contact me: as soon as I see you join Peter de Jager in denouncing the radical, fringe Y2K crowd, it'll all be zapped: the silly Flying Pig Award, the "Y2k Authorities" page and all that other stuff.

You have my guarantee on this.

So: what'll it be? You can be a voice of calm and reason now, or you can wait until next year and try to salvage your professional reputation.

The choice is yours.

But it's time for the madness to stop -- and I can think of no one more uniquely suited to help stop it than you. In the name of sheer honesty, if nothing else, it's time for you to speak out.


Stephen M. Poole, CET

For once, I am speechless. But feeling so incredibly sane.

-- Old Git (anon@spamproblems.com), July 20, 1999


Poole is probably more RIGHT than wrong in this.

I don't think EY will back-peddle on his stand though. His profits from the books is already dwindling and will more than likely fall off to a trickle soon enough.

Still it bothers me that so many people have just gone totally off the deep end on Y2K. The divorce rate will surely skyrocket when all the husbands/wives realize that their "off the deep end" spouse's have literally trashed their futures for a double-wide parked in the middle of friggin' nowhere and a shed full of beans and rice that are crawling with weevils!

The abortion thing is very scarey and I don't doubt for a minute that it has happened.

What do you say Ed?

-- (a@aaaa.hole), July 20, 1999.

Have you ever seen more arrogance and pitiful chutzpah come from a hand-solderer??

I think Poole might really be...... clinically over the edge.

-- Lisa (lisa@work.now), July 20, 1999.

Wow, that was certainly persuasive! Ed, if you take back everything you've ever said, Stephen will quit calling you names! What a deal!

164 days folks. Don't be distracted. Focus.

-- Dog Gone (layinglow@rollover.now), July 20, 1999.


It would seem that Steve thinks alot of himself eh? He must be on a mission from God. Or is he trying to get more hits on his site?


-- Brian (imager@home.com), July 20, 1999.


This is up to your usual standard. Im sure the moderators here will reward your ad-hominem breach of posting guidelines with their usual resounding silence.

Ignore the message, trash the messenger. Don't you have any comment AT ALL on the content of Mr Poole's open letter ? Thats the CONTENT lisa, not the author. It is after all, full of Y2K related content.



PS - Still awaiting a response from you on the other forum regarding your continuing claim that posters there encourage people not to prepare. Seems youre not too busy to post. Lost for words ?

-- W0lv3r1n3 (W0lv3r1n3@yahoo.com), July 20, 1999.

To anybody who thinks that Poole is "over the edge",

How do you explain the lack of the Jo Anne Efect that was supposed to have brought most of the globe to it's financial knees by this time? Quite the opposite actually, there is virtually nothing going on and absolutely nothing that has been a problem to me or anyone I know.

Dozens of entire countries many of them third world have already made the "crucial" rollover (you know, even if the U.S. is okay the third wold countries will drag us down?). All these dozens of countries now in the FY2000 and nothing bad is happening.

Not only do I think ED needs to "call off the emergency" I think he needs to publicly apologize for causing such an alarm with his books and so forth. Gary North on the other hand needs to be tied to the whipping post and flogged until all his evil demons are exercised from him.

-- (doomers@suck.com), July 20, 1999.

Here, Wolverine: [and those backward 'e's are certainly curious]

go read for a while.

-- Lisa (lisa@work.now), July 20, 1999.

Hey W,

Poole makes exactly one assertion:

Ed's predictions were wrong about dates in 1999.

Lane Core has already explained (in 1998) on his site as to why these predictions were wrong to begin with.

Get a life!

-- nothere nothere (notherethere@hotmail.com), July 20, 1999.

There really is help for you Cess-Pool. For God's sake why don't you get some? Things are failing all over the place and you have the balls to put a letter like this in print? Your sir (suck included) have just proven yourself lower than whale shit. Now, go back to sleeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeep!

-- FLAME AWAY (BLehman202@aol.com), July 20, 1999.

I fully agree with previous posts. My wife has had sleepless nigths because I often dicussed my deep concerns with her. It nearly wrecked my marriage. And all of this because I was probably reading too much Yourdon/North/etc. stuff. My career was damaged because I had trouble putting the daily business in perspective. I even sold my house because I followed Yourdon's tips: flexibility,mobility and liquidity. My personal opinion: EY is a smart businessman who made quite a buck with Y2K. There's one thing however that really bothers me: he's leaving like a coward because he KNOWS there's probably not much to Y2K. The timing of his sayonara says it all; just before the REAL critical dates would start. Dates that would trigger huge problems in the eyes of EY. I suppose he just dont't want to face his faulty predictions...


-- robert (robert@why2k.comm), July 20, 1999.

Let's review this piece of interesting material...

**These people have read Time Bomb 2000 and the materials at your Web site and, in some cases, have decided to quit their jobs and spend their life savings preparing for Y2K.****

Who, When and where...??? Send me links for that. Names..?

***But that's the least of it; I have received email reports of girls who've had abortions because they didn't want to raise a child in Y2K. ***

If you have these reports go ahead and publish them. I am more then happy to follow up on those and send them to a newspaper or tv station for publication IF *** true ***. Again, Names, When, Where, Why...?

*** I've heard from senior citizens on fixed incomes (they can't prepare, not they way your followers recommend!) who've lived in constant fear since this whole thing started. There have even been suicides.***

So we indeed had deaths because of y2k...?? Please post the concrete information. What senior..? Where..? When did he commit suicide..?

*** Here's the deal: you do it -- word it however you like; leave in the need for modest preparations, whatever -- and I'll remove any stuff from this Web site which you might find personally offensive. ***

If he is personally responsible for all these deaths, abortions and suicides shouldn't we hold him personally responsible..??? Shouldn't Ed Yourdon do some hefty jail time..? All you you want to do is remove some half ass, piece of cyberwaste website...? Come one you got to be kidding!!!!

Until you give me concrete evidence that:
A) Any of these above things happened
B) Verifable data that these things happened because of Ed Yourdon
C) Y2K is truly a non-event

I rather prepare prudently than listen to you spouting unverifable, unqualified data....

Just My 2 cents...

-- STFrancis (STFrancis@heaven.com), July 20, 1999.

Correction: I fully agree with Poole. The rest mostly trash.

-- Robert (robert@why2k.comm), July 20, 1999.


Thank you, I'm very familiar with that thread. And I agree with you, its worthy of reading. But not for the reasons you probably apply.

Its the one where Mr Decker and "a" engage in some loose discussion of the potentials for economic downturn and recession as of next year. Flint also contributes some points of view. Overall, some interesting and thought provoking issues are touched on, which gives the thread some value for the moderate observer.

Typically though (for this forum), the casual and interested observer is forced to wade through reams of irrelevant ad-hominem attacks, and snide comments, notably from yourself (among other top-billers). This of course flies in direct contravention of the forum posting guidelines, but as it's you "pessimistic trolls" doing the posting, it is subject to the sysop/moderators "turn a blind-eye" policy.

Now, what was the point you were making ? And what relevance did it have to my response to your ad-hom attack on Mr Poole in this thread ?



-- W0lv3r1n3 (W0lv3r1n3@yahoo.com), July 20, 1999.

If the morons had been following Ed's rare posts to this Forum the last couple months, they would know exactly where he stands. No backtracking. Then again, if the morons would actually read the news articles starting to tumble out in a rush of warnings, they might learn something. But they're stuck in their polly troll tantrums, stuck in a rut, unable to learn, reassess, change, grow -- STUNTED.

Now they desperately want to snag others, entrap into their stunted rut pit. Pity them, ignore, move on.

:~P :~P :~P :~P :~P :~P :~P :~P

-- trollala (whistle@under.bridge), July 20, 1999.

When someone writes that Ed Yourdon is responsible for extreme life changes, abortions, terrorizing senior citizens, and suicides, the writer has lost every bit of credibility he ever had.

Poole's letter and its troll responses amply illustrate why the trolls will not stop disrupting this forum, no matter what; they are on some sort of holy crusade to stop Ed Yourdon's "brainwashed followers" infecting as-yet untainted newbies. They are not reasonable and cannot be dissuaded by reasonable means. They are the Internet version of the airport Hare Krishna missionaries. Attempting to reason with them is a complete waste of time and I'm not even going to try.

They know what is best for us "Viet Cong doom zombies" (their term, not mine) and they mean to make sure we get it, whether we want it or not.

-- Old Git (anon@spamproblems.com), July 20, 1999.

Old Git and Lisa, you are RIGHT ON THE MONEY.

Poole is an idiot. Everybody knows that. If some girl aborts her kid, or a bunch of people decide to off themselves, that's just less mouths to feed and fewer people to defend my stuff from when Y2K hits. Big deal!

Those who leave their jobs and move out to the sticks will be the only ones ALIVE, get it? Nobody expected JAE to cause disruption, but Y2K WILL, and if you're not prepared, YOU DIE. It's really pretty simple.

Ed has nothing to retract.

-- (get@readyforit.yeah), July 20, 1999.

You know, I really dislike being distracted from reality by nonsense like the certified electician's letter.

I am not a "follower" of Ed Yourdon's. Poole is clearly confused in his ability to understand reason, logic, and the ability of people to make up their own minds.

Anybody here remember being hypnotized to do things against their own will? We're adults here. We make our own choices. Poole wants to blame Ed Yourdon for things that are not his responsibility. Why would anyone want to distort reality like that?

"Abortions because of y2k"???? Gee, I guess women haven't used every other excuse in the book to get an abortion. Like: career, money, lack of spouse, don't want to mess my figure, already have enough kids, nukes, I'm just not ready for children, I'm scared, I can't take pain, I don't want kids.....etc. It is a patent twisting of truth and reality to "blame" Ed Yourdon for the decisions of foolish women.

The rest of this? Please -- it isn't even a challenge.

But friend Poole apparently has a very serious obsession problem. He wants to blame ONE MAN for everything that is troubling about y2k. Those who wish to support Poole's sickness cannot be in much better shape.

Gosh, Old Git, I kinda wish you'd just left this drivel where it was, and not polluted this forum with it. Oh well.

Anita Evangelista

-- Anita Evangelista (ale@townsqr.com), July 20, 1999.

STFrancis, I agree. We already know that Poole has no problem lying & even enjoys yanking people's chains. We've aleady chased that bad puppy out of our pack, nipping at his flanks. He has zero credibility here. Why are we even discussing him anymore...?

-- gonna (get@more.stuff), July 20, 1999.

Hey, don't insult the Hare Krishnas like that! Chanting at least is elevating. And their feasts are delicious. No comparison! Besides, they're prepared :^)

-- Hare Krishna (chant@feast.soar), July 20, 1999.

Uhm, W: this is an ad hominem thread. Notice that?

-- Lisa (lisa@work.now), July 20, 1999.


-- lisa (lisa@work.now), July 20, 1999.

Hartz polly-OFF!

-- lisa (lisa@work.now), July 20, 1999.

How can anyone, Robert, blame Yourdon or anyone else, for their own decisions? If they do, it only shows how immature they were to begin with. YOU are responsible for your decisions (unless you're a Clinton liberal).

This whining by you and Poole is pathetic. I have appreciated Yourdon, North, et al, but hold them 0% responsible for the decisions I make. They provide information for thoughtful people, not instructions for idiots.

-- Jon Johnson (narnia4@usa.net), July 20, 1999.

Anita, I did leave it there. Then I thought, well, SOMEone will pick it up and post it, may as well get it over with as soon as possible, get it out of the way, so we can get back to reporting on Y2K.

BTW, did you see that post on the National Retail Federation contingency plan, where that trade organization talked about the government confiscating private property (as in, I assume, goods in stores)? I don't have the link handy but it's not too far down the New Answers list--search on Retail and it should pop up.

-- Old Git (anon@spamproblems.com), July 20, 1999.

Hey Old Git,

You see there is a thing call accessory to a crime. In this case it's not a crime but only because we aren't past 1/1/00 yet. After New Years I'm sure ED Yourdonefor (ED "If Y2K was like a baseball game you'd have gotten hit with a fast ball" Yourdon) will have his hnads full of lawsuits. He might not ever pay a penny in damages but we'll all know that $$$ was his only motivator when he starting getting into the Y2K survival game. There is something totally fraudulent about a man who writes predictions for the very near future, expects people to pay him money to hear them and know what to do to prepare for them, and then when the predictions fail to come about that man heads for the hills with his suitcase stuffed with greenbacks. Something very fradulent indeed.

-- (doomers@suck.com), July 20, 1999.


No it isnt.

This thread consists of an open letter, cross-posted to this forum by one of your forum regulars, with responses to the letter. Many of the responses concern comments on the content of the letter. The content of the letter contains Y2K related questions, posed from the author to the intended recipient. Whether or not that content is ad-hominem in your opinion is irrelevant.

Your response to Mr Poole, not being related either to the content of the open letter, nor containing anything Y2K related, constitutes a pure ad-hominem attack, as prohibited by the forum posting guidelines.

I hope that helped you clear up your misunderstanding.



-- W0lv3r1n3 (W0lv3r1n3@yahoo.com), July 20, 1999.

If you are an adult, then you are responsible for you. Sorry for the trouble Y2K has cause you, Robert, but your decisions were your decisions. Dealing with the consequences of our decisions is part of life. Sorry that sounds harsh.

As for Poole, he just wants attention. Fiscal year failures or lack of them don't mean jack shit. Just because EY made a best guess about 1999 dates and was wrong doesn't mean he's responsible for people killing themselves. Poole acts like since those predictions didn't come true, the cloud of uncertainty about Y2K has been lifted and it's time to start finger-pointing. People, this Y2K thing is just getting started.

-- Wingman (-@-.-), July 20, 1999.

doomers@suck: How much have you spent to get on this forum? I doesn't cost me anything.

Old Git: I guess so....it woulda been here, one way or the other. The retailers association seems to have made some interesting conclusions -- one more little data point.

Anita E.

-- Anita Evangelista (ale@townsqr.com), July 20, 1999.


The people with the lowest IQ always lash out the loudest, keep digging yourself in...your getting to be very funny...

-- BiGG (supersite@acronet.net), July 20, 1999.

I can't believe so many people in this forum can't think for themselves. Ed Yourdon isn't always right. He certainly isn't in his predictions so far (trigger dates).

Most people here are obsessed and pathetic. Get a life instead of weening about Y2K. Y'all must be feeling ridiculous next january!

-- Mary (im@feduopwiththis.com), July 20, 1999.

"164 days folks. Don't be distracted. Focus.

-- Dog Gone (layinglow@rollover.now), July 20, 1999."

My sentiments exactly.

-- R (riversoma@aol.com), July 20, 1999.


Those with the lowest IQ's lash out the loudest? By those standard Gary North is a retard. Ed Yourdon is the one who dedicated a web page and a BB to his ravings about Y2K , not me. I guess his lashings out were louder than mine huh?

So Mr. High IQ, can you tell me why none of those "really really important countries" aren't crashing and burning JUST LIKE ED and SCARY GARY said? Remember how they lashed out at them for being neglegent? Remember how they lashed out at the U.S. for not giving Y2K enough media time?

Whew, that sure is alot of lashing out. These guys must be idiots by your scale.

-- (doomers@suck.com), July 20, 1999.

Yeah,I'm really gonna be mad at you next year,Ed. As food prices rise (and they already are) but I have my supply at the lowest price. If my business decreases but my bills do too, because I've become more prepared and self sufficient. Yeah, saving all this money and being able to eat is really gonna make me mad!

-- sue (deco100@aol.com), July 20, 1999.

Wingman, Jon Johnson: I'm NOT holding Ed Yourdon reponsible for my own actions in life. Like I said: what's bothering me is that he's bugging out just before dates with predicted events arrive. The only thing I can imagine is that he KNEW that he was wrong in his predictions. In that case the man should be IN the spotlight, not OUT. You're talking about being responsible for your own actions. Well; if Ed Yourdon feels responsible for his own actions (writing down and publishing dire predictions) he should come out and explain!


-- Robert (robert@why2k.comm), July 20, 1999.

Hey, guys:

This thread is going nowhere. The debunking crowd has come over with it to this forum to cause trouble -- see the new names and tag lines? They're just pulling our chains...sad little people, who have nothing better to do --- if they had lives, they'd be busy elsewhere.

We're all adults here, responsible for our own actions.

Can we all do the smart thing, and let this thread die?

-- Anita Evangelista (ale@townsqr.com), July 20, 1999.

It ain't Y2K yet!!! What's so hard to figure out about this??? They call it Y2K for a very good reason!!! How many times do I have to say it???

[Begin rubber stamp mode]




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-- Sysman (y2kboard@yahoo.com), July 20, 1999.

Government y2k planning continues.

Retired Army Lt. Gen. Leads A Staff To Watch For Year 2000 Snafus Worldwide

-- A (He@ds.Up), July 20, 1999.

Ms.Evangelista, sorry to invade your small pathetic world. Some people have other opinions. Participating in a thread is not reserved only for insiders.

Bye Bobby

-- Bobby (tihsllub@nodruoy.com), July 20, 1999.

An open letter to the world : )

Poole is a no one. I've never even taken the time to visit his "site". But people do, if even out of morbid curiosity, to view the "dog and pony show" and see what it's like to watch a person implode. That sucking sound you hear is a vacuum where his brain should be. In a way, this gives Poole power. The fact that he has visitors supports the justification for keeping his site up. The fact that people do visit is the right of all who choose to. That is their own personal responsibility.

Poole has responsibilies too. It isn't for me to decide, one way or the other, if he is meeting them. However, based upon his letter I have my own conclusions.

Poole pays no attention to the reports coming from the government saying to prepare. He wont take the advice of FEMA or Red Cross or get a clue from Bennett or Dodd or numerous other politicians. He would rather ignore the extraordinary measures taken by Washington D.C. and other areas to prepare for "possible" disruptions. And it's easier to shrug off problems already occurring due to Y2k glitches or failures which occur in testing, not just here, but globally.

Taking that kind of information and forming a conclusion is too difficult a journey. For a lazy mind like his it's much easier to find a "scapegoat" and put all his hopes and dreams in keeping the status quo on the shoulder of one man. What a great way to deflect personal responsibility.

I wont answer for Ed nor will I speculate on what it is that Mr. Yourdon might be thinking at this time. I understand where my own personal responsibility begins and ends. I have a good idea of what is within my control and what is beyond it.

I can say, without hesitation, that Mr. Yourdon helped me by validating some of my own insight. I came upon his book long after I had come to the conclusion that Y2k would be serious. Personally, I have taken into account, in my Y2k assessment, many problems that Mr. Yourdon didn't really touch upon in his book. I've tried to visualize the human reaction in every level and every area of our lives, the terrorist threat both internally and from external groups, the people who suffer from true "millennial madness" which I do believe exists, etc. And, the fact that everything will come down to perception IS reality with regard to Y2k. Real or perceived, any problem will bring a flood of reaction, over reaction, etc.

What does Poole do? He writes a letter placing all the blame for his worst fears on the shoulders of one man, Ed Yourdon.

I hope Mr. Yourdon wont mind if I quote a passage from the Preface of Timebomb 2000.


On page xxiv you'll find the following;

"We don't know what's going to happen when the clock strikes midnight on December 31, 1999; nobody else does either. Some have suggested to us that by making the decision to write a book, we have created an obligation for ourselves to find out, so that we could state the future with certainty. Instead, we've tried to describe plausible scenarios to allow you to evaluate the likelihood of their occurrence, and then we offer some suggestions for responding to those scenarios. We don't have the "answer" to the Year-2000 problem, and given the complexity of the problem, and given the complexity of the problem, we think it's pretentious for anyone to suggest that he or she does. Instated of presenting answers, we've focused on raising what we think are responsible questions that you should be asking yourselves.

Ultimately, what we think, and what other people think or do, is not your problem. What you do is the real issue  in the final analysis, you're responsible for your own actions and the health and happiness of your family and loved ones. The issues we're writing about in this book are of direct concern to our family, and it forms the basis for our own plans for the Year-2000. We can only hope that we've made a modest contribution to society by articulating the issues for your consideration."

Edward Yourdon

Jennifer Yourdon

New York City, 1997


The thoughts expressed in these two paragraphs are much more in line with my own perspective than anything Poole has ever written. Certainly, this "letter" Poole has written offers nothing. It brings no new information to the discussion nor does it bring any solution to this global problem. It is groundless, baseless and cites not one supportive argument in favor of his position. I didn't even need to qualify "supportive argument" with the word "credible". He simply doesn't offer anything to support himself or his views.

Poole raises a lot of interesting, yet unsupported, tidbits of tragedy he "received" in "emails". If even a portion of this is true then it is tragic. However, in the end, Poole needs to learn that responsibility begins and ends with self. All actions taken by a person are the sole responsibility of that person. People make decisions based upon their own insight and within their own personal reality.

I entered into this journey well before I knew who Ed Yourdon even was. I've made my own assessment based upon my own insight and within my own personal reality. I understand that, though very helpful, Mr. Yourdon is only a man like myself who coincidentally is on a similar journey. I place no responsibility on his shoulders for any decision I make regarding myself, my family or the future.

In the end, I am ultimately responsible and, unlike Poole, I choose not to shy away from that.


-- Michael Taylor (mtdesign3@aol.com), July 20, 1999.

...In the end, I am ultimately responsible and, unlike Poole, I choose not to shy away from that.


opps...got cut off there at the end.


-- Michael Taylor (mtdesign3@aol.com), July 20, 1999.


Funny you should say that! You don't suppose the reaction was PLANNED, do you? No! Surely not! Even the polly trolls wouldn't stoop so low as to fake--oh dear! I forgot. It IS Poole who wrote this letter--silly me! Poole's that self-admitted faker, isn't he?

-- Old Git (anon@spamproblems.com), July 20, 1999.

Interesting, Doomer, that you are concerned with someone being 'an accessory to a crime'. Gee.....if you are wrong, what sort of a pickle will that leave you in?

Or are you hoping that it will be 'enscrewed' to the point that no one will be able to see how you said it was foolish to take this seriously. Perhaps that's your motivation behind your anonymous posts?

-- WilferdW (WilferdW@aol.com), July 20, 1999.

Todays date is July 20, 1999. We are talking about the Y2K bug. The code that this bug trashes is going to hit when the Year 2000 rolls around. Although there have been many failures already - they are not necessarily being obvious - for whatever reason. A close personal friend of mine is being impacted because the day care center she owns which services people on welfare has not received the check that she has expected for some time from the state welfare department. They owe her over $10,000 now. They have been told "it is Y2K". How long can a small business float that kind of money? I spoke elsewhere about state income tax refunds still not having gone out. This is not making the news. I don't know why - but I know that the failures are happening.

This endless repetition that failures are not happening is absurd. Failures are happening.

-- Jean (jmacmanu@bellsouth.net), July 20, 1999.

By wise concil you will wage your own war. When the us went to war in the gulf do you think they didnt get well prepared beforehand. Y2k will be a war, If you are mentally not prepared for that fact then you are not prepared. It may not be a war between nations but it could be. It will most certainly be an economic war were resources will be scare. Those who dont dgi will most probaly die and take some GI's out with them. Those who dilligenly prepare will stand a better chance. Dont argue with fools like poole,Instead use the time we have left to help our communities become more resilent. I for one am helping a church in buena park to build a new shelter for the homeless that can be used as a disater relief center during the y2k crisis. Dont waste your time on those who have no love in there hearts for there fellow men. Poole if you really care dont try to debunk go help out an organization that is in need that is serving our fellow man.

-- y2k aware mike (y2k aware mike @ conservation . com), July 20, 1999.

When I started to see where this thread was going, I promised myself that I would not get involved. However, the whole thing is so absurd that I broke my own promise. Can everyone say...personal responsibility? That's the bottom line. Mr Yourdon is in no way responsible for my actions or yours. Nor would I want him to be. (nothing personal. I just don't want anyone to have that much power over me) Mr. Poole, I don't know you and I don't usually read your posts. But I must say, IMHO, this is WAY off the deep end. You seem to have given Mr Yourdon a god-like quality that he probably doesn't possess (once again, nothing personal, Mr Y) How completely ignorant to blame him for some poor confused girl getting an abortion. I'm sincerely baffled by the negativity of some individuals like doomers.suck, etc. What is your agenda? Do you really think that YOU will convince me that I'm doing something horribly wrong by putting aside some provisions. And of course the oft-asked question, why do you care? Am I spending your money? Am I hurting YOU in any way? Am I hurting ANYONE? Please grow up. Your actions are infantile and bothersome. I know that this has been said before and will will just fall on deaf ears but I needed to say it for myself. Please go play somewhere else.

-- (rcarver@inacom.com), July 20, 1999.

Your link Old Git...

Natl. Retail Federation: "private assets may be taken by government to ensure public health"

http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id= 0016oA

Worth the read.


-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), July 20, 1999.

I would hope that Ed Yourdon would respond to Poole's letter. It's definitely a challenge from Poole and if he doesn't respond in some way, IMO, Poole can acknowledge that fact to further his own personal agenda. Actions speak louder than words.

-- Barb (awaltrip@telepath.com), July 20, 1999.

OK - now that y'all have established that the failure of past predictions mean absolutely nothing to you - could you please answer a question? Just how long after 1/1/2000 are we supposed to wait for the big failures? A couple of writers, Cory H. among them, are already trying to stretch things out by talking about lookback processing.

A clue for the clueless here - if the JoAnn effect caused little overall grief in 99, how much can the backwards of JoAnn cause a YEAR later after another 12 MONTHS of work? Come on, I want everyone to give me the DATE, the one where you say - OK - IT DIDN'T HAPPEN. Is the DATE even in 2000? Will you decide its safe to go to the 7-11 by March if no riots occur?

C'mon, surely you have made up your minds about THAT!

-- Paul Davis (davisp1953@yahoo.com), July 20, 1999.


The question is not "who is going to be right or wrong"

The question is "who is right and wrong up to this point"

ED made prediction about a massive trigger date on July 1, 1999. Here it July 20, 1999 and nada, zip, zilch. So it is ED who is wrong right now and it's me who is right today, July 20, 1999. You guys can scower the Earth looking for tidbits about Y2K related failures but all in all it's been a non-event. Ed Yourdon - 0, Reality - 1.

Ed Yourdon already admitted to having Scary Gary edit his book. That should tell you something right there. And futhermore now that ED took his Sayonara Y2K sabatical it leaves him at least only partially in the Y2K spotlight now. So in his mind, "just in the slight chance" that y2k will be a total non event after 1/1/00 he can still salvage some of his reputation as a businessman. Remember, he still plans on selling his other software packages, the ones he is working on right now, to his own admission.

Gary North on the other hand is already in such a deep hole he has no way out, but he can deal with it. If Y2K turns out to be a non-event then Gary will just take all the credit for his "Y2K Warning" campaign. Yeah sure, it all got done because HE was so savy enough to warn everyone well ahead of time. And then he'll be back with another crazy Apocalypse that will be sure to drum up millions of more dollars.

Face it, y2k was already supposed to be breathing fire down our necks at this time. That was what ED, and Scary Gary, and the rest told us a year and two years ago. But no, it's not and it IS being managed. So do you really want to continue listening to these people and go on screwing yoursleves? People that have been wrong time and time and time again??

-- (doomers@suck.com), July 20, 1999.

Ed doesn't have to respond. If he had to respond to every idiot polly that posted their drivel here, he'd never have time to prepare. Poole and the rest of the idiot pollys are just digging their own graves by telling people that they don't have to prepare. Alot of people will die because of these fools. They just don't want to face up to it.

-- (pollys@are.idiots), July 20, 1999.

Hey Doomers, what do you do for a living, except tell all the educated and experienced people here how screwed up they are? I really want to know. What do you do for a living??? <:)=

-- Sysman (y2kboard@yahoo.com), July 20, 1999.


I'm a programmer, what else? I write in COBOL, CL, and I've been picking up C++ and Java little by little.

I work for myself and do consulting work for companies from the east coast to the west coast. I own three as/400 IBM computers, I have a network set up in my own house and I am in continuous contact with all of my clients. I've been doing this for going on ten years. Before that I graduated from an Aviation school in NY and worked on aircraft, Powerplant & Airframe for ten years, certified with 2500 hours in the classroom. Before that I graduated from SUNY Buffalo in NY with an engineering degree.

You want anything else sysman ?

-- (doomes@suck.com), July 20, 1999.

pollys, haven't you been reading this thread. Every doomer here admits that we adults are responsible for our own actions. And yet, you say, "Alot of people will die because of these fools" (I assume you meant pollys). The ol' double standard, what an idiot you are!

Paul, the date will just keep moving. I suspect that in 2001, we'll still be hearing that some obsure failure in some obsure system (cab drivers in Hong Kong) will fail all due to Y2K.

Nice to see the doomers saying that we take responsibility for our actions. But don't you question, just a little, that the pied piper of Y2K leading the village should not cop out on his leadership role. Like it or not (no matter what that two paragraph disclaimer says), he has taken on the leadership role and needs to accept the responsibility of leadership. Now his predictions have been proven false. What makes you think his 10 year depression prediction will come true? It's not because of his track record. Maybe it's because people are blindly following him down his path. I don't think he will appologize, for that would jeopardize his career. But I also think if he doesn't do something quick, his career will be kaput come 1/1/00 when little (if anything) happens.

-- Maria (anon@ymous.com), July 20, 1999.

You people are like those fighting fish. The problem is you are wasting all of your time argueing with minimal civil discourse. I have been to this site once a month for the last 3-4 months and now I know why: it detracts from my ability to do my work, be a part of my family, etc. to see this inability of so-called educated individuals behaving like this. At least Milne didn't chime in. To quote Rodney Kind, "can't we all just get along?"

Both sides of this debate need to mature a little and acknowledge that this is like a lot of things in life in that the "truth" probably lies somewhere in the middle.

Act with Grace.

-- Slick (yeah@right.com), July 20, 1999.

2) It's 1999 now.
3) The major reason for failures is the late start date, and MANY Y2K projects started LATE.
4) The MAJOR PREDICITIONS by EY and Co. are RIGHT ON TRACK! We are NOT seeing the FLOOD of compliance announcements we SHOULD have SEEN ALREADY!
5) The largest corporations are taking precautions for disruptions that put most of the posters here to SHAME!
6) MOST THINKING folks considered the JAE to be an interesting sidelight, which would result in a lot of internal work but would never generate visible problems, as most corporations won't announce internal problems to the world (BAD for stock prices, doancha no).
7) READ the 10Q's of selected utilities.
8) There are utilities who are NOT guaranteeing power in 2000, in press releases (look in this forum).
9) Suppliers ARE being fired or replaced by large firms, or the large customers are being used for assistance in becoming compliant (this one you get to trust me on because I couldn't possibly list the ones I know about without getting un-employed. When one carries consultants around, one hears a LOT about what is going on in XYZ, Inc. and right now, suppliers are under the gun) I know of one company who sent senior executives AROUND THE WORLD with IT and other in house experts, to assess, and assist in the remediation of their suppliers in MANY countries. They are JUST NOW finishing up.
10) THere are vendors out there who are lying in reference to their compliance. A tech support installing engineer, when I jokingly said "You get a lot of people dragging you off into a corner and asking you if your product is compliant, don't you?" answered with "Of COURSE I tell them it's compliant. We're less than a year away. What ELSE am I going to tell them, regardless? They ask if we've tested it and I have to say "no.""


-- Chuck, a night driver (rienzoo@en.com), July 20, 1999.

Once again, the doomer regulars are using Stephen Poole as their favourite whipping boy. Just one question. If next year, events prove Stephen to be 100% correct in his assessment, will I be hearing abject apologies to him on this forum, or, will it be a litany of excuses: we still made the right decision to prepare cause nobody really knew, there were problems but the companies and media covered them up, it was Yourdon's warnings that saved us, etc. Or will it just be silence?

-- Computer Pro (first_minister@hotmail.com), July 20, 1999.

I don't know where Poole comes off. AS of 12-31-98 55% of reporting companies had experienced Y2K related systems failures. AS of 3-31-99that has jumped to 72%.

Just because they were able to cope when EVERYTHING ELSE WAS WORKING doesn't mean ANYTHING come January!!!

-- K. Stevens (kstevens@It's ALL going away in January.com), July 20, 1999.

I think this comment by Maria stands out, goes to the heart of the topic of this thread and warrants repeating...

"But don't you question, just a little, that the pied piper of Y2K leading the village should not cop out on his leadership role."

Is there anybody here who honestly has not had this thought cross their mind at least briefly? Personally, I compare him to the coach of a football team who leaves the stadium during the third quarter of the big game in order to study-up for his next career as a baseball coach.

-- CD (not@here.com), July 20, 1999.

Programmer husband made me aware, internet articles made available in these forums backed up our beliefs, these forums taught me how to prepare,..if nothing happens, fine with me. I can eat what I have. But would I feel I needed to apologise to people who felt I shouldn't have prepared. No way. It's none of their business what I felt I needed to do for my family. I am highly capable of making my own decisions, right or wrong. Granted, we sit at the three months preparedness level,..making us perhaps left winged doomers, but we are prepared nonetheless. I get to choose for me. ME..I..choose for me.

Seems to me..the people here have already decided to prepare. Anyone who comes here at this point and tries to argue with them is banging their head against a brick wall. Once your preparing, your preparing. Your mind is made up. Period. So I find questionable anyone who comes HERE soley to taunt or blame or argue. What could be your ultimate goal? What could possibly make you want to post HERE, amongst those who have already made the choice for themselves. To me there is no other reason than that it amuses you.

I think I've posted all of twice to this board, but I read it daily. It just bothers the hell out of me that I have to sift through all the annoying "doomers@suck" posts and "poole" posts, etc etc ad nasuem. It's disheartening. Guess what, no one here will change their minds. -Kritter

-- kritter (kritter@adelphia.net), July 20, 1999.

I'm a programmer (PCs) and have seen/used/programmed a lot of stuff with dates. Apps I've worked on are business, not process control (whatever). A lot of PC programs use funky date handling (windowing). The fact that we have not HEARD much about Joanne Effect failures and other lookahead stuff means nothing. It could have been serious or not. That we haven't heard much maybe just means that progammers/ops have been able to keep up with or handle someones birth date in 1910. (Or that companies and agencies have't issued press releases about their problems :-) ). I'm waiting to see what happens with REAL TIME PROCESSING come 2000-01-01.

I was aware of and concerned about Y2K problems before even hearing of Yourdon or that Gary North had a Y2K site.

However, their sites have educated me much further. With my programming background, I (like Yourdon, et al) don't know which way it's gonna go -- Bump or TEOTWAWKI. I do think there's enough chance for TEOTWAWKI so I AM PREPARING.

And to reemphasize a point made by others above -- PERSONAL REPSONSIBILITY. Ed and Gary haven't made anyone do anything. Pollys or doomers -- it's your decision -- and your actions that come from your decisions.

BTW -- when are you religious whackos gonna get off the abortion bit? Don't you trust your "God" to sort it out when those whom you regard as sinners/murderers die?

-- vbProg (vbProg@MicrosoftAndIntelSuck.com), July 20, 1999.

Poole wants Ed Yourdon to admit Y2K is not going to turn out bad. The thing is, Ed was already a middle ground person who was not expecting TEOTWAWKI. Ed Yourdon had this to say this in his "Y2K And The Year of Living Dangerously" essay:

I was originally going to call this essay "Doomsday Prolonged," as a rebuttal to Peter de Jager's recent "Doomsday Avoided" article -- but then I decided not to do so, since many people seem to read only the title of Y2K articles, and they might mistakenly think I was advocating a TEOTWAWKI outcome for the Y2K problem. While I don't predict TEOTWAWKI, I do predict serious problems; and in that context, I've been growing increasingly concerned about the chorus of of optimistic speeches about Y2K that we've been hearing from government officials and commentators for the past few months.

Only Stephen Poole knows for sure that Y2K will be a bump-in-the-road and nothing else. The rest of us know that a bad storm is approaching that may or may not strike our individual areas. Keep some extra supplies on hand -- just in case.

-- (not@poole.party), July 20, 1999.


That isn't middle ground to anyone else.

And no one is answering my question.

-- Paul Davis (davisp1953@yahoo.com), July 20, 1999.

sadly very possible paulie

-- (middle@groundlevel.prep), July 20, 1999.

Kritter pretty well saidit all. I read these postings and I just wonder, WHY? People either have decided that preparations are necessary or that they are not. I won't change a persons mind by calling them an idiot since they don't think as I think, nor will they change mine. What the Hell is the point of all the back biting and name calling? Is anything accomplished? I am an ordinary guy, and the goings on here are pathetic. People, we need to grow up. This BS doesn't help anybody in any way, at all. If all this is an example of MATURE people talking---God help us. Kentucky Bill

-- George berge (gberge@kih.net), July 20, 1999.


Ol' poole is right, all the food I've put back is a complete waste of space, I'll never eat all the rice and beans. I'll never have a use for the grav water systen and sewer I have. I'll never be out of power so the wind system I have was a waste of money. I'll never use the fishing supplys or the ammo I've stock piled, because I don't fish or hunt ( LMAOROTF ). The power never goe's out here, so I'll never need the lamps I've owned for the last 20 years. I'll never need toilet paper,,, wait a minute,,, I might,,, forget that.,,,,WAIT A MINUTE,,, power is undependable here, the fish allways bite here ( fresh is best ), Ive hunted and fished for years. Food is cheap now, so is water.

What was his point again?

-- CT (ct@no.yr), July 20, 1999.

Paul, maybe it's because your "question" isn't a question at all. It's an assertion based upon bad logic. There can not be an answer and if you were 1/10th as smart as you THINK you are you'd understand that.

You've lost all credibility Paul. That is why no one answers you!!!!!!!

-- no one (no@where.com), July 20, 1999.

Good grief! I checked the forum this morning, and this thread wasn't even here. Now it's about 9 pages long, when I printed it out with the smallest font available on my machine. Don't you people have anything better to do with your lives?

Maybe that wasn't fair: if Poole's "open letter" (which I had not been aware of) has generated such a ruckus, it must be a matter of some concern. This is exactly what I was trying to get away from when I dropped off the radar screen a couple months ago, but I'll try to write up something this evening and post it ... probably on a new thread, since this one is already so long.

Short response to Poole: yes, I over-estimated the VISIBLE failures associated with fiscal-year trigger dates, but whatever optimism that might have generated about the outcome of Y2K has been more than compensated by the steady stream of troubling data. My opinion about the outcome of Y2K has not changed fundamentally, but has become incrementally more pessimistic with each passing day.

More later, time permitting.


-- Ed Yourdon (still.lurking@newmexico.hills), July 20, 1999.


Yeah well it would seem pretty strange then that your advocating that anyone should buy your book and video when all you can be sure of is "invisible failures". Those pesky VISIBLE failures don't really mean anything anyway.

Wow, what logic. I guess next your going to warn people about invisible nuclear strikes that leave invisible radiation.

Overestimated the fiscal year problems? Ed, you wrote a book of pure fiction.

All I'd like to see from you at this point is why your so nonchelant when it comes to all these people who look up to you and call you "boss" and "cheif". What can you offer as an explanation as to why you'd suddenly jump ship just when things are supposed to be getting hairy? You wrote a preparation book and marketed a video about this stuff, all I want to know is what your reasons for it were when it's obvious your so prone to "over estimations" of the future Y2K related problems. Seems to me you wrote a book of speculation and not one of facts. Of course you can't write a book about the end of the world after it's already happened, that'd be bad business. No you got use that fear of anticipation to your advantage and strike when the Y2K coals are hot. That is what sells books.

Yes, it's all coming clear to me now.

-- (doomers@suck.com), July 20, 1999.

Other info about fiscal year rollovers, accounting software, the Jo Anne Effect and a comment by Ed Yourdon in March about April 1st:


"Significance of States Fiscal Start"

-- Linkmeister (link@librarian.edu), July 20, 1999.

Ed has NEVER advocated anybody buying his books. He has ALWAYS encouraged ppl to research for themselves Y2K ramifications and take any such action as they see fit based solely on their own weighing of their own research.

Why are these facts so hard for ppl to understand, cognize, remember?

We met Ed in Seattle, where he gave excellent Y2K talks, and where he very graciously signed his books and answered questions from those who came up to him wanting help or advice.

We watched for a while, and he never once "pushed" his books or his opinions. He was very gentle and unassuming. And, we didn't buy any books! No pressure or spiel whatsoever.

Ed, you don't have to respond to these ridiculous threads and pouty illogical accusations.

You don't have to once again come into their target practice radar.

Thank you for your great posts on other threads! The 4th generation post has us really thinking ...

3~0 3~0 3~0 3~0 3~0 3~0 3~0 3~0 3~0 3~0 3~0 3~0 3~

-- Ashton & Leska in Cascadia (allaha@earthlink.net), July 20, 1999.

I just have to take this opportunity to honor Andy, wherever he is. He found Pooles brain! Here it is: ================> .

-- Gia (laureltree7@hotmail.com), July 20, 1999.


Obviously you've been oblivious to the whole TEOTWAWKI debate:

1-2   Bump          Koskinen
3-4   Recession     Yardeni 
5-6   Depression    Yourdon (10 years, Paul...)
7-8   Collapse      Milne/North
9-10  Devolution    Infomagic

Now somebody quick, grab the HTML manual from Paul before he hurts himself.

-- a (a@a.a), July 20, 1999.

if we could be so lucky that it were _just_ a 10-year depression

-- wishing (it@could.beonly), July 20, 1999.


I know you aren't that stupid, but perhaps you think everyone else here is? Let me set up an arbitrary scale (why not, you did it?). When flipping a coin, you expect to see heads:

1) The first flip

2) The first 5 flips

3) The first 50 flips

4) the first 500 flips

5) the first 5000 flips

Well, looky here! Heads 50 times in a row is "middle ground". NOT because anyone in their right mind would expect this to happen, but because it's in the middle of the scale I created. Now, if you went to an asylum for the statistically deranged, you might actually find 100 people who would pick choice (3) most commonly. Oops, come to think of it, that's *just* what you already did.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), July 20, 1999.


I, for one, am fervently hoping that Ed chooses to ignore this BS. It is outrageous, but not at all unexpected, that after Ed was civil enough to post a response here, the "erudite" Doomer Suck troll throws juvenile and illiterate spitballs at him. Can't you just imagine Doomer Suck troll squealing, "Look at me! I told Ed Yourdon to f off!", while begging for attaboys from his Bunker buddies?

These are the most likely outcomes Ed would achieve by reponding to such garbage:

1. Feed an already insane ego and pathological conceit that has lead Poole to the delusion that he has any kind of right to demand anything from someone he has smeared with this hate-filled invective. I still find it almost impossible to believe that Poole is so sick as to accuse Ed of being responsible for abortions! God, this is repulsive thinking even on Poole's part.

2. Encourage little ankle biters and DeBunker lapdogs to spew slime at him, as Doomer Suck troll just did.

3. Invite someone like Wolverine to spend the next week here on this forum endlessly parsing and twisting every last syllable until it's unrecognizable.

Obviously, Ed will do what Ed feels he must, but I sure wish he'd let it go. It's an ill wind...

Lastly, when I read this latest from Poole, I wondered if he had consulted his attorney before he published this on the web. I'm not a lawyer, and don't play one on T.V., but I'd sure like to know how this diatribe of Poole's is NOT slander and/or libel.

Damn, feeling in need of a shower just from having read Poole's crap.

-- RUOK (RUOK@yesiam.com), July 20, 1999.

cess pooles tend to do that to ya

-- phew (hold@nose.run), July 20, 1999.

Don't forget that us Christian Phrophets also predict on basis of Holy Writ that this NWO, Babylonian Economy will go to hell. If Y2K is not the "snare" then beware! It will come down. Slavery is illegal "on earth as it is in heaven."

AKA Mark Hillyard

-- freeman (freeman@cali.com), July 20, 1999.

ROTFL! Someone should enter these two statements at the "DUH" website:

"Y'all must be feeling ridiculous next january!

-- Mary (im@feduopwiththis.com), July 20, 1999"

"Seems to me you wrote a book of speculation and not one of facts.

-- (doomers@suck.com), July 20, 1999"

-- Gayla (privacy@please.com), July 20, 1999.

Flint: I have no idea as to the relevance of your post. I'd ask you to elucidate, but I have the feeling it confused you too...

BTW Flint, 133 of the contributors to this forum, probably some of the most well read on the y2k matter ON EARTH, just completed a poll in which they rated an Infomagic scenario as about 1 in 10 (I'm sort of a polly -- I put it at 1 in 100). Do you have any idea what the odds of 5000 heads in a coin toss are? How about 1 in 10,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 ?

-- a (a@a.a), July 20, 1999.

I don't know, a preparation book with Y2k stamped on the front. Seems speculative to me. Note it wasn't just Ed Yourdon's Emergency Preparations Book/Video. That would never sell. (Did someone actually say Ed didn't want to press people into buying his book? Now is that twentieth century business savy? I think not. Books are made fer reedin' dontcha know? Can't make money off a book that doesn't give you a good ROI)

I see a popular slogan made financially profitable. Maybe there were facts inside but I flipped through the book once and it didn't look like it was geared towards addressing the the nitty gritty of Y2K. More like another wildnerness/survival book with a catchy, ominous Headlining Title.

Besides all I was asking for was your infallible leader to tell the whole group WHY he feels like he has to slink off into the shadows after he stirred up a hot topic. Well "boss", What's the story?

-- (doomers@suck.com), July 20, 1999.


Of course you can't write a book about the end of the world after it's already happened, that'd be bad business. No you got use that fear of anticipation to your advantage and strike when the Y2K coals are hot. That is what sells books.

Perhaps you don't know Ed's history. He has sold MANY MANY software design/systems books over the years and is considered to be among the best of the best. He doesn't need Y2K to make a buck.


-- TECH32 (TECH32@NOMAIL.COM), July 20, 1999.

Oh Tech please, you know that's not true. In the land of the Capitalists the hustle never ends.

-- (doomers@suck.com), July 20, 1999.

Suck: Ed gave his book away for free on his web site, both editions.

What more do you want? Are you trying to be "Asshole of the Year"? You've damn near got my vote.

-- a (a@a.a), July 21, 1999.

"doomers@suck.com" wants to know the story on Ed Yourdon's farewell to Y2K. It's at this link...


"Sayonara, Y2K"

-- Linkmeister (link@librarian.edu), July 21, 1999.

Sorry a, the polls have been closed and Flint won by a landslide!

-- (counter@ballot.box), July 21, 1999.

Flint, you just don't make any sense any more.

-- George (jvilches@sminter.com.ar), July 21, 1999.


Sorry I didn't get a chance to post a more detailed response tonite -- a "real" client unexpectedly intervened with some "real" work that will help pay the rent this month. But I am working on it, and hope to post it tomorrow (Jul 21st); among other things, I'm working on a couple of updates to my web site. This has nothing to do with Mr. Poole; it's been percolating for a month or so....

Bottom line: I'm back, and for better or worse, you'll be hearing more from me than you have in the past two months. But I'm focusing on a different aspect of Y2K than before, and a different perspective than this forum currently has. Stay tuned....


-- Ed Yourdon (still.lurking@newmexicohills.com), July 21, 1999.

All these posts, all this heat. The two recurrent themes are so boring--

"He's wrong, and I can't stand it."

"He thinks I'm wrong, and I can't stand it."

There's a dismal tendency in our culture to want to find someone else to blame for any misfortunes we experience. In some this is displaced, in that they try to find someone else to blame for the misfortunes others have experienced.

Again I quote:

'Do not be satisfied with hearsay or with tradition or with legendary lore or with what has come down in scriptures or with conjectures or with logical inference or with weighing evidence or with liking for a view after pondering over it or with someone else's ability or with the thought "The monk is our teacher." When you know in yourselves: "These things are wholesome, blameless, commended by the wise, and being adopted and put into effect they lead to welfare and happiness," then you should practice and abide in them....'
From "Buddhism Without Beliefs," by Stephen Batchelor. The Buddha is quoted from the Kalama Sutra (Batchelor's translation).

-- Tom Carey (tomcarey@mindspring.com), July 21, 1999.

Poole and the Gang ("Cel-e-brate Good Times, Come On!") seem to be operating under the following assumption:

The Y2k prep is a movement. All movements must have leaders. Therefore, eviscerate the apparent leaders (first on GNIABFI and then here) and the movement will cease.

This thesis is invalid. Y2k prep is not a "movement". It's just a bunch of people rationally hedging the possibility that a bunch of crappy old code may or may not get fixed and may or may not work next year. It doesn't have "leaders", but mere information gatherers and commentators. Ed has relevant industry experience and provides some interesting commentary and that's about it. He isn't Jesus or Der Fuhrer, just another geek with an informed opinion about what might transpire. Most of us don't need or want leaders. We can check what data there is and reason independently.

Far from being "doomer", the average prediction on this thread is for a depression (and, in my case at least, I didn't pick a number in "the middle of the scale" as Flint assumes, I picked depression as the likely scenario because that is what I logically expect will happen). Ed, too, suggests a 10 year depression as likely. Here's a clue. We could have a 10 year depression without any Y2k effects whatsoever. In fact, we could well already be in a depression if it weren't for the stimulative effect of Y2k spending. If Y2k causes problems, the wave just hits harder, sooner, that's all.

If Poole et al aren't being well paid for their tenacious efforts at discrediting Ed and Y2k prep in general, they've entirely too much time on their hands.

-- Nathan (nospam@all.com), July 21, 1999.

It amazed me that so many folks think of a ten-year depression as inconcievable, or right off centre. Learn some history!!

Depressions have been a feature of market economies since they first existed. The 1930s weren't the first, just the most recent. They've been coming every 50-70 years, and we're overdue for the next.

Read up about the 1920s, ask yourself whether the mood of the times isn't worryingly similar to today. That's another historical pattern. Whenever folks most believe that all (economic) ills have been cured, that there's a "new paradigm" or "it's different this time" -- watch out! History suggests that's exactly when things will turn nasty.

And all of the history was without a Y2K. Do you really think that Y2K will be so insignificant that it won't even act as a pin on a bubble?

Maybe it really is different this time. Maybe Y2K will merely be a week or two of frustrating inconveniences and "business as normal". But I'm not going to stake my future on it.

And yes, I'm a moderate. I don't expect Infomagic to be right, and I'm not turning my life upside down in what would probably be a vain attempt to survive that catastrophe.

-- Nigel Arnot (nra@maxwell.ph.kcl.ac.uk), July 21, 1999.

CD posted:

"But don't you question, just a little, that the pied piper of Y2K leading the village should not cop out on his leadership role."

"Is there anybody here who honestly has not had this thought cross their mind at least briefly? Personally, I compare him to the coach of a football team who leaves the stadium during the third quarter of the big game in order to study-up for his next career as a baseball coach."

Actually no. This thread alone... coming 164 days before rollover, would make him run screaming for the locker room. I compare him to a football coach who has spent years devising the best strategy for getting goals, only to look out on the field and find his team split between mudwrestling duels and prayer meetings.

Focus people.. focus.

-- Linda (lwmb@psln.com), July 21, 1999.

Glad to see you back Ed,

For what its worth, Ed shared his public reasons for leaving in the essay Sayonara, Y2K AFTER going to Washington. Go read it... if you really want to know more.

He also shared his departure thoughts with me, and other regulars, Im quite sure. Were satisfied as to his reasons. He deserved a break! And he did say, if he had anything "new" to say, he'd be back.



-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), July 21, 1999.

I am talking about your acting like a 3rd grade punk, not somebody giving his or her opinion. Of course something above a 65 or so would have afforded you the opportunity to figure that out on your own.

-- BiGG (supersite@acronet.net), July 21, 1999.


What did Ed have to say about you and your "team" flouting the US laws against discrimination and prejudice in your one-sided application of the forum's posting guidelines ?

Had he read any of the attempt's Ive made to draw the issue out into a proper discussion, accompanied by your repeated total refusal to debate it openly like a grown up ? Did he pass on any tips ? Was he worried about it at all ? I was just wondering.



-- W0lv3r1n3 (W0lv3r1n3@yahoo.com), July 21, 1999.

You skipped around too much no-one, but I can't blame you as this thread is enormous. My question was "At what date will you admit Y2K is over?". When is the whole bit with invisible failures and possible collapses and whatnot over with? You have to have made up your mind on a date, after which you will say "that is it, for better or for worse, I now KNOW what Y2K will do or has done." So what is that date?

-- Paul Davis (davisp1953@yahoo.com), July 21, 1999.

See Eds Poole response...


For further insight on Poole... see...

Stephen M. Pooles apology here...

An Apology To Lane, Diane, and the World At Large

http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id= 00135U

-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), July 21, 1999.

well- I just don't get it. first off- why do those who profess to know that y2k is a non-event hang out here anyway?? Get a life pollys. Second- although I must confess that i don't think Ed has ever made a dime off of me personally- what if he had?? Last I checked, it's a capitolist society folks. Lots of bucks made every day- why shouldn't he make some of them??

Thirdly- as adults- we can all make up our own minds. I don't follow Ed blindly. He is not God, has never professed to be- nor the Buddah, messiah or whomever. I don't have to believe everything he says. I read it, think about it and file it away for further thought. I do the same with what Cory or Gary or anyone else has to say- same with Koskinen, the Red Cross and whomever. Then- I (gasp) make my own decisions.......and do what works for me and my family.

To blame your marital problems on y2k is bogus- same with abortion, suicides or whatever- would have happened anyway IMHO-

-- farmer (hillsidefarm@drbs.net), July 21, 1999.

W0lv3r1n3 you've beat that dead horse long enough. Give it up and go back to your polly forum.

-- none (none@none.none), July 21, 1999.


let me paraphrase your response . . .


We HAVE no answer to your question, at least none that sounds believable, otherwise wed've simply stated it publicly without fear of exposing ourselves as prejudiced and closed minded. Please stop asking the question because it makes us uncomfortable to think that we might be a little less objective and fair minded than we like to believe we are. It would be easier for us if you disappeared and then we wouldnt have to address the fact that our beliefs are based on a case so flimsy that we have to deter anyone who's opinion varies from our own by an officially endorsed campaign of dirty tricks and prejudice. Just leave . . . PLEASE."

Sound about on the money ?



-- W0lv3r1n3 (W0lv3r1n3@yahoo.com), July 22, 1999.

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