Hey Bankers, don't worry, be happy!greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread
I thought it might be fun to share an experience I had today. Take it for what it's worth.
I made a quick trip to the bank today. Hurray! People are paying their bills!
Anyway, I'm second to last in a decent sized line with the full demographic spectrum of banking customers represented. Up at the window a louder than normal gentleman of about 65 was speaking clearly to the teller.
"Sir, would you like to open a CD or another kind of account today?"
"Ahh, nope. Not anytime soon. I'm waiting until after Y2k."
Laughter and smiles errupt around the bank, in front of the counter and behind. People look at eachother and smile as if to say, "this guy...he's crazy, huh?"
"Yep," the man continued, "I plan on pulling ALL my money out before the end of the year and digging a hole in the backyard."
More laughter...but a little more like nervous laughter behind the counter this time.
"I figure I'll just get me a plastic trash bag and put my money in a hole. It'll be safer there until next year, after you guys get your stuff together."
Needless to say, the man was viewed as a lunatic by EVERYONE in line except me. I wanted to tell him to consider the PVC pipe and caps with the silica gell...never got the chance.
Bankers don't worry...be happy. Out of the 10 customers in the bank only two were Y2k aware. Oh, wait. 2 out of 10? Well, now, that's 20%. It's not scientific but interesting considering the wide range in ages, etc. of those in line.
Oh, remember I was second to last in line? Well, the guy behind me seemed really interested in what the older gentleman had to say : )
-- Michael Taylor (email@example.com), July 08, 1999
-- Diane J. Squire (firstname.lastname@example.org), July 08, 1999.
3%of communities will have "x" level of concern about their deposits, the other (left or "wrong" side of the bell curve) 3% will have very little if any concern over their deposits. Guess which group will have their actions flashed around the world within 2 hours? Bankers would love to lop off the top 25% and the bottom 25% of "concern about their deposits" AND IT CAN`T BE DONE! (and if they can find a way to stop the coming bank runs more power to them)
-- bud (email@example.com), July 08, 1999.
Watched an entire resturant of 30-plus stop dead in their tracks yesterday as CNN ran its story on Britain beginning to sell off their gold reserves. No one flinched, 100% paid attention. Continued freefall could be what gets everyone feeling the ground shifting beneath their feet.
-- (firstname.lastname@example.org), July 09, 1999.
Let's look at the math. One or two with withdrawal intentions out of 10. That's 10% or 20%. And the banks have 1% or 2% of their demand deposits available in cash for those who wish to make withdrawals. Seems to me we have an order of magnitude shortfall here.
If you're number 3+ in a line of 100, you're S.O.L.
Withdraw early and withdraw often.
-- A (A@AisA.com), July 09, 1999.
A who is A,Got a solution or know of anyone who thinks they have a solution? (other than darwinian)
-- bud (email@example.com), July 09, 1999.
Bud: So what's the matter with a Darwinian solution?
Information about the problems with central banking -- fractional reserve banking, fiat money, credit creation out of thin air, etc. -- have been known for centuries. People such as myself (in my very small way, for 25 years), and some "big guns", since the founding of this republic, have tried to no avail to make the sheeple aware. The sheeple prefer to sleep. F*** 'em.
-- A (A@AisA.com), July 09, 1999.
Actually, no matter how much I would like to pull money out of the bank, the bank need not worry about me doing so. Not at this time anyway.
I come from a position of understanding what is a realistic goal for a client in creating an "awareness campaign".
No matter what the banks and other financial entities would like to accomplish, the realistic goal is that they will only affect a small percentage of overall depositors, etc.
It is absolutely unrealistic for anyone who advertises to believe that any campaign can reach and affect 100% of any target group. The fact that this target group runs just about every demographic makes this even more difficult a task for the industry. Their campaign will be a success if they reach double digits in percentage.
If they get 10% out of a target of 100,000, well, that's pretty darn good. Heck, that's success!!! Still, it's only 10,000. However, that leaves 90,000 unaffected by the campaign. What are the intentions of only 2% of 90,000? What if 10% of the 90,000 have an intention to pull money out of the bank? The market? etc.
Maybe bank runs wont occur. Maybe people will pull money out before a panic begins. But when Bud writes about the news getting flashed over the airwaves that even a small percentage have run on the banks, pulled fromt the market, etc., that will snowball. And, no matter what, even some within that speculated 10% above who bought into the "everything is fine" campaign will be in line too.
So, how far can that 250 billion extra dollars go that the Fed has set aside? How much of it will be set aside for corps, etc. who need emergency loans? They have to meet payroll, expenses, fix on failure, etc.
What does that leave the average, everyday joe, depositor?
I don't have a clue.
I can speculate, however, that if I was in that line on a day when people were a little more frightened, a little more unsure, a little more worried...that louder than average, 65 year old man could have started a bank run with those same people who laughed at him.
As for me? I would have exited the line and headed for Bugout Plan B.
If WW2 had never happened, I would be a multi-millionaire today. Things happen. My fathers wealthy family lost EVERYTHING when the tiny Pacific island they called home was invaded. It's a long story that involves an escape on a raft made out of a garage door into the open sea.
The bottom line is don't pull your money out of the bank. Invest what you can in preps. Money comes and goes. Fortunes are made and lost.
Lives are more important that greenbacks, anyday.
-- Michael Taylor (firstname.lastname@example.org), July 09, 1999.