JIT Inventory and Pollys..greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread
Quite simply everyone is smiling, everyone appears to be believing the load of public bull being spewed to sustain the bull market, but honestly, who really believes all this nonsense (other than the lemmings)?
I want to know when any polly will answer the questions about the JIT inventory supply system introduced into the economy over the last 15 years. As a frequent visitor to the islands and Mexico, trust me, we have a reason to be scared. Our economy hinges on cheap, labor intensive, premanufactured raw materials or subsections for final assembly in this country. If this supply suddenly dissappears in 1Q of 2000, what happens to this economy? Realistically though, what happens of 25% of the Fortune 1000 manufacturers do not anticipate this problem and try to FOF?
Think about this people, especially you expert trolls. The sudden cut off of material from such technological powerhouses as Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Honduras, Thailand, Indoensia...(you get the idea) and what will our manufacturers do? Close shop and layoff people until the problem is fixed. Then they won't be able to buy new cars. Whammo, auto layoffs. And new homes? Ha! There's a fallacy! No jobs, no homes. Whammo, layoffs in the construction and building supply industry. Then Whammo, layoffs in the retail industry because there is nothing to sell and no one to sell to.
This is truely a worst case scenario. But quite possible by March of 2000. Ignore the burps, belches of the 1st quarter of 2000. So we lose power for 2-3 weeks, big deal.
Just remember this expression: IF your neighbor loses his job, it's a recession; if you lose your job, it's a depression.
-- John Galt (firstname.lastname@example.org), July 07, 1999
I share your belief that Y2K will severely distrupt JIT systems. Until 9 months ago, I worked on a JIT manufacturing system for a large electronics company. One of its features was a weekly tranmission of files to all our JIT vendors of our forecasts for the next 6 months. The first forecast into the year 2000 will be next weekend. Because the company cut many corners in its Y2K remediation and most of the suppliers are small companies that have done little, if anything, about Y2K, I expect major problems to start very soon. I have heard that they are thinking of shortening the forecasting window a month at a time for a few months in order to try to stave off problems.
-- Harb (email@example.com), July 07, 1999.
Let's see how the Doom Doofus Brigade has done with past prognostications:
"... I believe we'll start seeing [disruptions] by this summer, and I believe they'll continue for at least a year. As many people are now aware, 46 states (along with Australia and New Zealand) will begin their 1999-2000 fiscal year on July 1, 1999; New York (and Canada) will already have gone through their Y2K fiscal rollover on April 1, and the remaining three states begin their new fiscal year on August 1, September 1, and October 1. We also have the GPS rollover problem to look forward to on August 22nd, as well as the Federal government's new fiscal year on October 1st.
There is, of course, some finite probability that all of these rollover events will occur without any problems; but there's also a finite probability that pigs will learn to fly."
-- Ed "Flying Pig" Yourdon
April 1, 1999. On this date, Canada, Japan, and the State of New York begin their fiscal year. This will, of course, include dates beyond Y2K. As a result, planning systems, especially budgets that have not been repaired will fail as they attempt to process Y2K dates. Since New York City is the media capitol of the world, problems there will grab headlines worldwide. Problems in Japan will remind everyone again of how interconnected our world is. The Japanese will also be forced to admit that there systems might not make it. I expect the stock market to react and begin (or continue) its downward spiral. Public confidence will continue to wane and the number of Y2K optimists will continue to dwindle.
July 1, 1999. On this date, forty-four U.S. states begin their fiscal years. The problems that began in New York will now spread exponentially across the country and around the world. The public will feel the global and pervasive nature of the Y2K Problem for the first time. This will be further exacerbated by the fact that many states have not had the resources to adequately address their Millennium Bug problems. Consequently, the failures will be real and widespread.
From the 12 Oct 1998 issue of Westergaard - Michael Hyatt
-- Y2K Pro (firstname.lastname@example.org), July 07, 1999.
Let's leave the following room on this forum for Y2K Pro to post all of his real time, in the field experience on the subject of JIT manufacturing, which I note, quite obviously, he fails to address...
-- John Galt (email@example.com), July 07, 1999.
JIT supply systems cannot handle sudden surges, as in massive panic buying. JIT needs to be structured over months. There's no way JIT manufacturing can meet the needs of the herds when they stampede to the stores. Barren shelves will be a sad sight for many JIT American consumers.
-- Randolph (firstname.lastname@example.org), July 07, 1999.
If you don't make your JIT preparations now, you will experience JILT: Jaundiced Indignation Limiting Taunts
-- Randolph (email@example.com), July 07, 1999.
The current JIT system is for the most part handled via truck or rail. When a company has a problem with the normal delivery of product there is a vast network of charter airlines that fly on demand. Thousands of aircraft fly replacement cargo all over the world everyday to deal with this problem. Each flight costs a tremendous amount of money! Some companies (GM Ford etc.) charter dozens (even hundreds) of aircraft daily! It can easily cost a company like GM over $25,000 a minute to shut down *one* line, thats why they dont blink at the tens of thousands (or more) of dollars it cost per flight to get the parts needed to keep the line moving. JIT delivery problems will be a major (catastrophic?) problem for a whole bunch of companies after rollover. Like Randolph said, the problem most people are going to face much sooner is supply and demand.
-- BiGG (firstname.lastname@example.org), July 08, 1999.