In response to the thread "Paging Rick Cowles And All Lurking Journalists" on July 1, I did call Cameron Daley of Tava/RW Beck this morning. He did confirm that the quote from the Bloomberg story that there could be outages was indeed an accurate quote.

I didn't have time to do a full interview because other obligations popped up unexpectedly today, but I did talk briefly with Mr Daley. His basic point was that utilities *believe* they are being accurate when they report readiness, but his company has been called in to audit many of them, and has subsequently found that they (at least some) have not always gone deep enough into their systems, and that they have missed Y2K problems that actually do exist- problems which could indeed lead to power outages.

He gave me a few technical examples, but, as I said, I didn't have time to do a full-fledged interview, so I don't want to post them here, as I might get a detail or two wrong and misrepresent his statements. Hopefully, as time permits, I'll have the chance to do a regular interview, with specifics.

-- Anonymous, July 06, 1999

Answers

Drew,

Interesting post. I, for one, would be interested in hearing any details of a fuller, follow-up interview.

My main question would be one of "scale"; i.e. how many companies has he audited, how many of those had problems that were uncovered in the audit and how serious were those problems? Until we hear a bit more about these it is difficult to assign a value to this particular "data point".

Regards

-- Anonymous, July 06, 1999

Mike,

According to my notes, he said that "on numerous occassions" they had been asked to audit power companies, and that in "a lot of cases" they found that the company hadn't done their remediation well enough. The basic problem was the companies hadn't gone deeply enough into their systems. Those undiscovered problems could lead to outages.

Beyond that, I can't say.

-- Anonymous, July 06, 1999

Thanks Drew. You are not around here as much and I miss your posts.

-- Anonymous, July 06, 1999

Thanks, Drew for your preliminary "dig" into this.

I was the person who brought the story to this forum's attention (and when Rick decides he's sick of paying his bills on time, it may show up in the EUY2K Newsroom--:)), so I'm grateful for the initial verification.

IMHO, the Cameron Daley quote that needs further clarification (in advance of the public release of the NERC report later this month) is as follows:

``The whole grid won't collapse, but there will be outages that could last up to several weeks.''

Several weeks?

Several weeks without power during a North American Summer is one thing. Uncomfortable for the masses? You bet. Bad news? Certainly. Could we survive? Probably. At least most of us.

However, several weeks without power during a North American Winter? Elderly people freezing in their homes because they refuse to leave--believing that the power will come back on--SOON?

That's why "Several weeks" needs to be nailed down.

For those who just joined the party on this story, here's the original report.

Utilities Say They're Y2K Ready, Though Blackouts Expected Washington, June 30 (Bloomberg) -- Most U.S. utilities said today that their power plants and transmission lines are ``Y2K ready,'' though experts still expect some power failures when the New Year comes.

Utilities were asked to report their level of ``readiness'' to the North American Electric Reliability Council today. While a full report on the results won't be ready until July 29, dozens of utilities declared their success at finding and eliminating the Millennium bug. Electric utilities spent billions of dollars over the past several years to prepare for the day when aging computer and analog systems can't determine whether the digits ``00'' represent the year 1900 or 2000. They've been upgrading and testing components of power plants and distribution systems, and setting up contingency plans in case of failures.

``Utilities are scared,'' said Cameron Daley, chief operating officer of Framingham, Massachusetts-based Tava/R.W. Beck, which tested and upgraded systems for more than 100 U.S. utilities. ``The whole grid won't collapse, but there will be outages that could last up to several weeks.''

While no utility has guaranteed there won't be blackouts Jan. 1, industry groups said utilities are doing everything they can to prevent problems, including preparing for the worst.

`We believe Y2K won't be a problem,'' said Eugene Gorzelnik, a spokesman for the council. ``There will be a huge backlash if a utility reports it's Y2K ready, and it turns out that it wasn't.'' Edison International's Southern California Edison utility, which has spent $72 million on Y2K preparation, said it plans to dispatch an extra 500 employees on New Year's Eve. Wisconsin Energy Corp.'s Wisconsin Electric Power Co. plans to have as much as 50 percent more electricity available than it normally needs at that time of year.

Still, deregulation has pushed utilities to cut labor and other costs, and those that are deepest in negotiations with regulators haven't been as focused on preventing problems related to the millennium bug, Daley said.

``The utilities most distracted by deregulation aren't doing enough to identify and prevent problems,'' Daley said. There are a number of instances where utilities didn't go deep enough into their systems -- they accepted vendors' words that parts of a system were compliant.'' Even if a utility corrects all the problems in its own system, power still may be cut off to their customers. That's because U.S. and Canadian power lines connect all utilities, and when one utility system breaks down, it could cause problems for others.

``We cannot provide warranties (against blackouts) because our readiness depends in part on other parties,'' said Samuel Manno, director of Niagara Mohawk Power Corp.'s Y2K project.

At the trade council's suggestion, utilities agreed to conduct the first major test of the entire power systems' ability to properly recognize dates beyond 1999 on September 9.

``We hope to learn what still needs to be done at that point and correct any glitches before they happen,'' Gorzelnik said.

(Note: You can still access (for now, at least) the original Bloomberg story by copying and pasting the following URL into your browser. Once there, go to the search engine, and type in the word "blackout." The story will surface.)

http://www.aol.com/mynews/business/story.adp/cat=020102&id=19990630080 19182

Thanks to all in advance, for investigating this further. Inquiring minds want to know. (Especially those with stubborn elderly relatives, living alone in "empty nest" homes with no backup sources of heat, and no close relatives living nearby.)

-- Anonymous, July 06, 1999

I followed the url provided but had to enter "y2k blackout" to get the full story. Thanks for the information.

-- Anonymous, July 06, 1999

Mike Lang,

Thanks for the nice words. Maybe we'll run into each other at a DCY2K Group meeting sometime. I'm not around here (or anywhere) as much because of the demands on my time these days. It's out of hand, believe me.

Mike Coulter,

For some reason, the number "100" had been bopping around in my mind, with respect to the number of utilities Daley said Tava/Beck had audited, but I didn't see it in my notes, so I didn't put it in my reply to you. Then I realized where it came from- the Bloomberg story which started this conversation. So that gives us an idea of how many plants/companies they've worked with.

Confused,

Glad you reprinted the story- I realized after my first post in this thread that some people might not follow what I was yammering about.

-- Anonymous, July 06, 1999

Several weeks of blackout in a petroleum refining environment is a BIG problem. I find it fascinating that the media manages to carry stories like this all the time, and yet they haven't grabbed onto this guy's quote. Ummmmm....duhhhhhh....Gee Tenesseeee.....maybe we should go see Mr. Whopeee?

In the winter time, three weeks of no power is not an option for pipelines, tank farms and refineries.

It's all about systems and failure rates. Hubris Kills.

-- Anonymous, July 06, 1999

Confused,

BTW, I think you can safely assume that the "weeks" part of the quote is accurate as well. Insofar as to why he believes it would be for that length of time, I would say it would have to do with what he believes will be the causes of the outages in the first place, and that it will take a while to repair (just a guess on my part).

-- Anonymous, July 07, 1999

Thanks Drew.

If the "several weeks" quote is accurate, however, it begs another--equally important question:

Several weeks without power? WHERE?

(Rant mode on)

WHERE?

WHERE?

WHERE?

(Dagnabbit! Somebody HAS to know! Northeast? Northwest? Midwest? Texas (that whole other country)? WHERE?!?!)

(Rant mode off)

'Sic 'em

-- Anonymous, July 07, 1999

Confused,

I doubt anyone really could answer that question at this point. The variables are so high that it would take an enormous amount of information to even *attempt* to answer it- and even with all the proper info, I don't know how good the odds would be of forecasting it. Further, if this scenario comes to pass, it may not be a situation of blackouts, but perhaps brownouts. I don't know if anyone knows or can know.

-- Anonymous, July 07, 1999

I cannot access this story today. Have they pulled it? Help is needed.. Thanks

-- Anonymous, July 07, 1999

lisa,

I just checked (1:45pm)- the link was still working.

http://www.aol.com/mynews/business/story.adp/cat=020102&id=19990630080 19182

-- Anonymous, July 07, 1999

This is what I mean about the interdependancies of the grid and petroleum refining. Many times, unplanned shutdowns result in equipment damage. It's not hard to concieve how difficult things could get in the middle of winter in the northeast, or chicago area. This plant will be shut in for a week from one outage.

NEW YORK, July 6 (Reuters) - Sunoco Inc. said Tuesday that a power outage late Monday had shut down its 130,000 barrel per day Point Breeze plant near Philadelphia. A Sunoco spokesman said the company did not know how long the plant would be down. The 200,000 bpd Girard Point, which together with the Point Breeze plant make up Sunoco's Philadelphia refinery complex was operating normally, the spokesman said. --((Atiya Hussain, New York Energy Desk +1 212 859 1848; fax 859 1629; e-mail nyc.energy.newsroom@reuters.com))

-- Anonymous, July 07, 1999