Now that one more "mini-Y2K" date has passed uneventful, do you believe Yourdon and other "prophets of doom" will concede their error in predicting disaster now or after nothing serious happens 000101?

Your thoughts?

Andy Ray

-- Andy Ray (andyman633@hotmail.com), July 03, 1999

Answers

"For the record: Your July 1st predictions, please"

http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=000wgU

-- Linkmeister (link@librarian.edu), July 03, 1999.

http://www.yourdon.com/articles/y2kpanic.html

Paragraph 8

:) Andy Ray

-- Andy Ray (andyman633@hotmail.com), July 03, 1999.

Didn't Andy just out this faker?

-- Old Git (anon@spamproblems.com), July 03, 1999.

"Significance of States Fiscal Start"

http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=00122f

-- Linkmeister (link@librarian.edu), July 03, 1999.

http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=000f20

Will something really happen or just another April Fool's Day?

greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread

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Okay, guys, here's the $64 question. We all know April 1 is another drop dead day: fiscal Year rollovers for Japan, Canada and the state of NY (with the UK soon to follow, on April 6). So, what will happen? Will NY state pensioners suddenly not get their checks, etc. etc. Is this something serious or another red herring BS non-event. You folks with experience in programing these systems need to speak up on this. Ed, maybe you could chip in on this one. Thanks, everyone... Sandmann

-- Novacop (Sandmann@alasbab.com), March 28, 1999

Answers

Response to Wii something really happen or just another April Fool's Day?

Well, we know that it won't have any impact on embedded systems -- so we're not going to see any failures of process control systems, refineries, utilities, or things of that sort.

It also means that we're not going to see problems in PC BIOS chips or non-compliant PC operating systems.

The problems will exist in application programs that are aware of, and make use of, the end-date of the fiscal year, i.e., March 31, 2000. Thus, we're almost certainly talking about financial systems, tax systems, etc. It's likely to have the greatest impact on report- writing programs that spew out spreadsheet-looking reports with rows and columns of numbers, showing budget figures for all 12 months of the fiscal year.

Several people have argued that we probably won't see any problems in the day-to-day transaction-processing systems, e.g., the systems that process daily receipts and daily disbursements of funds. However, if there are any logic-checks that ask questions like, "Is this disbursement legitimate within the context of a full fiscal year?", THAT could cause problems.

As with most other aspects of Y2K, the bottom line is that we really don't know where and how the problems will hit. What's fairly obvious, given the experience from the Euro rollover, is that any minor or modest problems will be hidden pretty well within the bureaucracy. However, if it causes something comparable to the NJ food-stamp problem (yes, yes, I know that the officials have now described that problem as a non-Y2K problem), then it will be hard to cover up. If a hundred thousand retired civil service workers don't get their monthly pension check, you'll definitely see it on the evening news program.

It will be interesting to see how it turns out...

Ed

-- Ed Yourdon (ed@yourdon.com), March 28, 1999.

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-- Linkmeister (link@librarian.edu), July 03, 1999.

Linkmeister,

Thank you for your wonderful posts!

In my humble opinion, the obvious lack of substantial happenings 990401 prompted several doomsayers out of the public limelight - Yourdon included. The non-events of 990701 will likely inflame the wishful, and 991001 should nearly quench the flames of the true believers of coming doom. The spoonful that deny reality at that point probably will refuse any suggestion that it didn't actually happen and was "covered up" - even after the non-events of 000101.

Andy Ray

-- Andy Ray (andyman633@hotmail.com), July 03, 1999.

Old Git,

I dunno. . . Anybody who knows about, ". . .protecting themselves from the starving hoardes" and. ". . .the angle of the constantine wire", sure sounds like we'd better listen to him!

-- Hardliner (searcher@internet.com), July 03, 1999.

Andy Ray,

No need to thank me for the links I posted, because they don't validate your point of view.

A good excerpt here on how states use fiscal year dates...

http://www8.zdnet.com/pcweek/stories/news/0,4153,1015372,00.html

[snip]

Few worries about cut-over

Benzen said there were few problems because the fiscal year date is used in most states' systems only to label data or documents, not as a key computational input. In contrast, the calendar year date is critical for computing and tracking values indicating such things as Medicaid eligibility. For that reason, said Benzen, few state information technology officials were worried about the fiscal year cut-over.

"I forgot we changed the fiscal year until I got in this morning," he said.

Because the fiscal and calendar dates are used so differently, Benzen said, the ease with which states coped with yesterday's change doesn't mean they'll be as successful on Jan. 1, 2000. "This is no predictor of what will happen on January 1," he said. "You can't reach a valid conclusion based on what happened with the fiscal year change."

[snip]

-- Linkmeister (link@librarian.edu), July 03, 1999.

Another article with a bit of info on the significance of July 1st:

http://www.kcstar.com/item/pages/business.pat,business/3773a954.702,.h tml

[snip]

For most of us, however, the July 1 date is no big deal.

That's because most fiscal year dates are not used to calculate the payments that thousands of state residents receive every month. Bills are paid, food stamps are issued, Medicaid payments are made and vouchers are tracked by actual dates.

[snip]

-- Linkmeister (link@librarian.edu), July 03, 1999.

I was convinced the world was going to end when Wal-Mart looked ahead back in Feb., or was it March? Whew - dodged a bullet on that one!

Those that are aware of the inevitable problems will continue preps until the perceived threat no longer exists. It won't happen now, nor will it happen on 082399 or 100499. It is foolish and potentially tragic to discount 000101 just because any other date still "works".

-- Lee (lchesson@infoave.net), July 03, 1999.

Two minor July 1st glitches reported in a Boston newspaper:

http://www.boston.com/dailyglobe2/183/business/Few_computer_snags_repo rted_in_major_Y2K_test+.shtml

[snip]

But exceptions were discovered at a state computing center in Chelsea, Asbedian said. One application used to track legislative action on a mainframe apparently misinterpreted the ''00'' of the new fiscal year as a previous date. In a second case, Asbedian said, a mainframe program wasn't able to allocate costs properly because of the unfamiliar year.

Asbedian said he couldn't provide more specific descriptions of the problems, but said they were quickly spotted and repaired.

The glitches were troublesome because they appeared in large mainframe applications that had already been certified as ''Y2K- compliant,'' meaning they were already thought to be prepared for the date change.

[snip]

-- Linkmeister (link@librarian.edu), July 03, 1999.

Yeah, Hardliner, gotta have constantine wire for the compound to deal with the starving hoardes. I prefer racer wire myself, but each to his own. I rather liked AR's other post where he used the imagery of the lemmings following the piper. You reckon it was a highland or lowland piper? Well, must go feed my hoardes.

-- Old Git (anon@spamproblems.com), July 03, 1999.

Dear Hardliner,

:)

Andy Ray

-- Andy Ray (andyman633@hotmail.com), July 03, 1999.

I didn't know you sold concessions Andy Ray,

but you have been outed as a trolling liar my old son,

Well? After performing exhaustive searches of all the media outlets I can identify online, I cannot locate any stories about mass failings of city and township governements due to their systems rolling over to FY00. I will share this with you, however: while on holiday, my newly issued credit card would not work at the pay-and-pump petrol kiosk, so I went back to our suite and began plotting the overthrow of the village governement, hoarding all sorts of supplies, and began feverishly searching for a local supplier of alternating current generators. I felt the fear! Then, I peeled off the funny sticker on the back of the card, phoned the number printed there, and had it activated. Whoops. You blokes are right - it's a conspiracy! And they're hiding the truth from the internet, too - the bloody b@ $t@rds!

Regards, Andy Ray

-- Andy Ray (andyman633@hotmail.com), July 03, 1999

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), July 03, 1999.

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PS By the way "andy ray" I've got you in a flat out lie. Well I knew you were a lamo troll but this confirms it.

This is what you said...

"Then, I peeled off the funny sticker on the back of the card, phoned the number printed there, and had it activated. Whoops."

WHOOPS indeed - you can only activate a new credit card from your home phone number numb-nutz, not from your "suite" at the Happy Roach Motel in Bumfucque Indiana.

My god you are thick.

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), July 03, 1999.

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), July 03, 1999.

Andy Ray is Decker. Same style, different handle. Still an idiot

-- DeckerTroll Alert (DeckerPatrol@home.com), July 04, 1999.

Ya know, New York State was touted as one of the key indicators to watch on April 1 because they were the largest state to have FY rollover that day. Funny thing though, here it is July 1 and NY STILL HAS NOT ADOPTED ANY FY2000 BUDGET.

The state is operating on FY1999 continuing resolutions and it has been openly stated by the state Senate leader and the Speaker of the NY State House that they just might never pass a budget for FY2000.

Now NY has been late in passing budgets before, usually with great outcry and fighting amongst the parties involved. But this year it's very different, more like a attitude of "Oh, yeah, the budget. We'll pass one sometime, but we ain't in no hurry." Obviously this year, for some reason it's very much to the state's advantage NOT to pass a budget and I'll bet they don't pass one either. Wonder why?

WW

-- Wildweasel (vtmldm@epix.net), July 04, 1999.

Popcorn, hot popcorn. Get yer hot popcorn!

OK, Andy Ray! The concessions have begun! Happy now?

-- andy ray is silly! (hee@hee.hee), July 04, 1999.