Southeast Asian Economic Impact: $90Bil+greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread
According to International Monitoring, the ASEAN countries will suffer Y2K related delays and damages totalling over USD $90 billion combined.
The specialist consultancy in London created the study which involved modeling the technological inventory and technology usage profile of the ASEAN member countries. The countries technological profile was combined with an economic profile. This information was then merged with Y2K preparedness estimates based on internal and external reports, and independent 3rd party research.
The remaining estimates of unfinished or improperly finished Y2K fixes were then applied to a damage estimate scale. The scale known as the IM-Y2K Risk Rating, ranks countries from 0.0 to 9.0, with 9.0 being the worst case Y2K scenario. The average rating for ASEAN* members was 5.9 IM-Y2K. This 5.9 IM-Y2K corresponds to a damage estimate of 4.0% of GDP.
Damages included direct, indirect and ambient damages. The $90 billion figure does not include legal or insurance costs for the members of the group.
The ASEAN members export over $350 billion worth of goods and services a year. The average ASEAN member state has 45% of its economy in the service sector with the remaining 55% of the economy shared 26% and 29% between agriculture and industry respectively.
International Monitoring makes no estimate as to how the damages will affect GDP growth in the region, but does consider the Y2K impact to be hazardous. When considering the fragile nature of the current economic recovery currently taking place, a short, sharp macroeconomic shock combined with a potential flight to quality could prove dangerous to the existing economic recoveries.
The IM-Y2K Rating assumes that Y2K fix rates are maintained at current levels.
International Monitoring has urged its government and corporate clients to make appropriate contingency plans.
-- regular (firstname.lastname@example.org), July 02, 1999
Who is this International Monitoring and why are they so bent on sending me back to an 8?!?! I'll try to find some stuff on them..
-- Lisa (email@example.com), July 02, 1999.
-- Lisa (@ .), July 02, 1999.
International Monitoring provides country Y2K risk information. This information is intended for use by CEOs, CIOs, risk specialists, contingency planners, and financial analysts.
International Monitoring is a specialist consultancy based in London which gathers, analyses and disseminates information about potential Y2K situations world-wide. The firm provides information for assessing the scope, scale and location of potential Y2K issues.
Doesn't say much, does it?
There is an email addy at the bottom, but that's about it.
-- de (firstname.lastname@example.org), July 02, 1999.
You can get a better sense of what they are up to at www.im2k-ok.com/ aboutthe.htm They have developed a multi-level compliance "test" for rating an organization's level of compliance, though I've no idea how useful this actually is or just how well it works in practice. I note, too, that some of their Web pages are rather poorly written and constructed. I definitely get the sense that this is a fairly new outfit; in the last week or two they've been pumping out press releases on Y2K issues (as measured by their rating system) as though there is no tomorrow (and I suppose the most extreme doomers say there isn't!), and evidently trying to pump up business in the process. Some of their material has landed at CNNfn, among other places--and just because they are new doesn't mean they are inept. Maybe they are quite good, in fact. But you wonder how many analysts they actually have, and where, when they speak of "monitoring" Y2K progress in 140 countries.
Again, International Monitoring is clearly trying to locate clients interested in their compliance testing (rating) system; they mention that so far Denmark, Argentina, Turkey, and Cuba are supposedly interested. Hey, it's a start. But I doubt if GartnerGroup is sweating.
-- Don Florence (email@example.com), July 03, 1999.