My conscience is bothering me and I've got to say something. I read Mitch Ratcliffe's challenge on ZDNet. He apparently thinks that everything's going fine with all the Y2K remediation work because no one who is involved in it will speak out publicly.

Sorry, but the $1000 doesn't cut it. I have been warned by management that if I go public or say anything negative it's my CAREER. They'll destroy me. I've been in the business for 30 years and I'm too old to change careers.

I can't identify myself, but I can speak out.

I work for an electrical utility. (I won't say where because you'd figure out who it is.) If our company is indication, the lights ARE going out next January at the crack of midnight.

We don't have time to test every piece of equipment. What we're doing is TYPE CHECKING, which is just a fancy of way of saying SPOT CHECKING. Just the other day I looked at a Phillips VRZ262-Q7 unit that monitors the current in four 05388 sub assemblies. I wanted to check everything but my supervisor said, "NO just check one assembly." We ASSUME that the other three will be OK. We're doing the same thing with our Siemens System 3 SCADA; we're only looking at some of the RTUs. They've declared the DPS system to be "non-mission-critical" so we're not even checking it!

I'm worried because we've been laying off people right and left to cut costs for the past 5 years. Some of these people have gone to work for private contractors, but a lot of them have gone into other types of work. The company is being run by kids in business suits, and these geniuses think that they'll be able to hire the private contractors to help out in a pinch. BUT THEY'RE GOING TO BE OVERLOADED, TOO.

The April 9 drill was a PR stunt. Lane Core was right. I don't know what everyone else did but I can TELL you what we did. We talked to each other on walkie-talkies and had a great picnic.

One day last winter we advanced the dates on the EMS and the power went off. Cascade failures knocked out a bunch of other stuff. Because of that the geniuses decided that we can't test the entire system, so we just work on "spot remediation." We make sure all the dates LOOK right so that we can claim good numbers in our reports. The first time the whole system will be tested together is January 1 2000!

(Don't you remember reading about that big outage last Winter? That's what happened! I was there!)

Prepare people. Don't let the Happy Faces fool you. You should be ready for a week at least with no power on New Year's with random outages of 4-6 hours for at least another YEAR. Or WORSE.



-- Anonymous, June 29, 1999

Answers

See April 9th NERC Electrical Utility Industry Drill.

-- Anonymous, June 29, 1999

Worried,

Welcome! Finally, a utility worker that will be taken as a credible source of information!

We are type testing also. This is NOT a problem with devices with similar programming code and hardware/firmware configurations. Test 1 SEL relay, test 1000 SEL relays = same result - they were not designed to use calander dates. Type testing checks are valid where you are verifying design viability not production differences.

Could you please describe what your Philips device is, and the specific application (what currents are you monitoring - line, bus,? Is this a tripping appication? High speed or backup?) I have searched the EPRI web site and find no other utilities having reported using this device. I couldn't find it on the Philips Electronics web site. What were the results of the testing you did perform? Did the Philips device fail and how?

Does your utility participate in EPRI? Will you be posting your test results there to aid other utilities?

RTU testing - the hardware platform needs only type testing. If there are application programs resident on the RTU, then one of each version program needs to be tested also. Do you have date related programs on your RTU's? Are they written in-house or by the RTU vendor? All of our date stamping is done at the SCADA master, the RTU has no date-aware apps and the hardware platform tested fine. Are you also responsible for testing the SCADA master?

As for the April 9th drill, the benefit may not be evident depending upon your rung in the ladder. To our field techs that recorded field data and used the radio to report them, yea it might seem like a hassle and a waste of time. But I tell you, our system operators got great value from it. They have the confidence that they can operate the system "flying blind" (that's hood time Gordon) in the event of external communications failure. What is your role in your companies Y2K effort?

Please describe in detail your EMS test. (It would be nice if you would post it on the EPRI web discussion forum.) What function of an EMS caused a "power outage"? What tripped? What was the sequence of this "cascade"? I assume that because you decided NOT to test the EMS in an integrated test, that the test you did perform was on discreet components. What was the scope of this test? How many components were included, and what steps did you take to isolate the components under test?

The only widespread outages that I recall were ice storm related. You must choose words wisely when posting here, this is an imperfect communications medium and the potential for misinterpretation is great. Hopefully noone will confuse the ice storm with your Y2K test. Why hasn't your failed test been reported by NERC or EPRI???

-- Anonymous, June 29, 1999

this guy is probably a fraud. also posted on timebomb 2000 and got creamed.

lou

-- Anonymous, June 29, 1999

This one uses Gary North expresions: "Happy face". Is over the top like Gary North: "at least a YEAR". Misrepresents the facts like Gary North: "type checking" is not the same as "spot checking".

Uses funny syntactical tricks like Gary North: "The April 9 drill was a PR stunt . Lane Core was right ."

"I did not have sexual relations with that woman . Monica Lewinski ." :-)

Quacks like Gary North.

Waddles like Gary North.

Smells like Gary North. :-)

-- Anonymous, June 29, 1999

A.J., you are even sicker than "worried".

-- Anonymous, June 29, 1999

Huh?

You forgot your smiley...

:-)

-- Anonymous, June 29, 1999

Notice the "-Q7" in the VCR model number? Reminds me of a previous bogus post in the TimeBomb 2000 forum that I brought to this forum's attention (the infamous Q7 transistor & 555 timer y2k hoax)....this was a givaway... Regards,

-- Anonymous, June 29, 1999

cl... it would not surprise me to find out that you were the lead interrogator for the spanish inquisition in your last life.

factfiner, great job at intimating.

aj, maybe you oughtta stop smoking that 'funny' stuff.

now, i know you guys would have us believe that in this *whole wide country* there is nada, zero, zilch, not one electrical engineer that remotely entertains the possibility of failure.

not one manic depressive cleverly concealed by that normal 'spockian' logic. not one shoddy plant, not one late project manager...NONE!

we are as a nation... truly blessed.

never in human history have so many humans blindly trusted that so many other humans won't screw up._

dr. ed yardeni

-- Anonymous, June 29, 1999

Worried,

Hmmmm. I don't think I'm "hearing" you correctly.

The Q7 deal is the first stark indication that you might be trying to pull our collective leg, as others have noted. ;-) If you have some specific examples and concerns that you wish to express privately, my email address is listed below.Confidential to Worried: your IP address, which I can trace as forum administrator, tells a whole different story.

-- Anonymous, June 30, 1999

marianne,

The Spanish inquisition has gotten a bad rap. When the truth was found to clear the defendant, it saved their lives from the government's parallel inquisition. Seek the truth, and address the problems, vindicate the innocent. Good lesson here.

-- Anonymous, June 30, 1999

Ok, since this particular story is now being retold all over the internet, I have to jump in here again. For various reasons,(primarily forum administrative in nature, as well as technical content of the post) I can state with an extremely high degree of certainty that this post is not from a legitimate utility worker.

I am asking "Worried" to touch base with me via email if I am wrong. Otherwise, I will remove this entire thread as of July 1.

-- Anonymous, June 30, 1999

Ok, since this particular story is now being retold all over the internet, I have to jump in here again. For various reasons,(primarily forum administrative in nature, as well as technical content of the post) I can state with an extremely high degree of certainty that this post is not from a legitimate utility worker.

I am asking "Worried" to touch base with me via email if I am wrong. Otherwise, I will remove this entire thread as of early on July 1.

-- Anonymous, June 30, 1999

Marianne, you forgot your smiley too. :-)

If you have been paying attention you will know that I am one of the engineers who believe that there will be failures and that everything is not hunky-dory. On the other hand I try to use a moderate dose of critical thinking to separate the interesting and informative from the absurd and hyperbolic.

The entire north american grid is almost certainly _not_ going to crash. And there is no way that it would be unstable for a year. Give me a break.

Most of us who have been involved in this Y2K thing for more than a year or so recognize the different phases of Y2K awareness: utter disbelief, gradual awareness, denial, anger (emotional upheaval), acceptance, and finally preparation, communication, assistance.

From reading your posts I hazard a guess that you are in the emotional upheaval phase, in a couple more months I'll wager that you will reflect on some of your posts and have a twinge of regret at a few of your more choice statements. I was pretty emotional distraught about this time last year, when there was a really dearth of public information regarding the status and progress of the electric utilities industry. Since then I have aquired a little more faith that things will be alright and at the same I have been having a good time doing some moderate stocking of my pantry.

But I am not buying any potassium iodide (KI).

Regards, --aj

-- Anonymous, June 30, 1999

aj, this is what i was responding to... sorry for the confusion. i didn't mean to 'lump' you in with cl and factfinder[the little dears.]

aj speaks: This one uses Gary North expresions: "Happy face". Is over the top like Gary North: "at least a YEAR". Misrepresents the facts like Gary North: "type checking" is not the same as "spot checking". Quacks like Gary North.

Waddles like Gary North.

Smells like Gary North. :-)

end of aj's riddle

i kinda think that you are suffering from 'that' hammer problem... you know, if the only tool you have is a hammer all of your problems look like a... gary north.

i don't suffer the need for approbation from any source and therefore find myself able to agree with gary north in a public forum. as i am capable of analyzing a given situation in a logical fashion and coming to my own conclusions i am also capable of recognizing someone else who is able to perform same.

the text below relects the opinion of a friend, with whom i wholeheartedly concur.

One must also take Dr North in his context. I am aware that he is infected with one of the many available strains of millenarian Christianity, which is a widespread thought-process parasite of the general class known as religions. Underpinning his enormous and quite valiant efforts to document the months before the System Wall Date, is his belief that when all collapses, that his particular religious belief system will be validated, all the "evils" will be washed away, all the "sinners" and "unbelievers" will get their fingers slammed in car doors for eternity, and that those who listened will go on to become the inheritors of the earth or whatever is left of it, and will have Gary to thank, partly. I think Gary is praiseworthy regardless of his religious infection status, insofaras he has maintained a very, good site and kept it remarkably free of gratuitous "you'll all burn in hell forever, suckers" as might be the sort of thing you'd get at the end of every post if components of say, Paul Milne were operating in North's thought-process architecture. However, I think Gary has done remarkably well. He has taken a very balanced, rational approach, in my view, in fact so rational as to be extraordinarily atypical of persons infected with parasitic replicating belief-systems of any sort. Maybe a PhD does teach you to think, after all.

end

and aj, i believe that gary north has better things to do than post here under a pseudonym. i believe his style is quite 'upfront' and doesn't lend itself to the type of behavior to which you are referring

-- Anonymous, June 30, 1999

I don't know how many ways I can say it. Some folks can't take a hint. The posting that started this thread is a fraud. Not "appears to be a fraud", but *is* a fraud.

-- Anonymous, June 30, 1999

rick,

i believe you... i never said that it was valid. what i take exception to is aj's slam dunk of gary north.

north was singlehandedly responsible for educating many of the people who have prepared and i feel that the post from aj warranted a response.

if you check my original post it was based on the reactions of the engineers whenever anyone remotely suggests that the power industry, as a whole, is not y2k *ready.*

-- Anonymous, June 30, 1999

Marianne, please pardon a longtime lurker's response to your words about Mr.North. I have long enjoyed the commentary provided on this board. More often than not, it is balanced, fair and does not get sidetracked into name calling between camp mentalities. However, as someone who swallowed the doomsday scenarios when he first entered life on the misinformation highway, I can relate my opinion that sites like North's have done more to provoke panic and emotional purchasing than anything else. I remember traveling to a site that exposed the midset behind this particular line of thinking...

http://www.davislogic.com

and believe I found enlightenment and the track record of some of the other previous prediction this man...and others like him...have made. I appreciate your feelings about 'education', but since I am in the business of education, I can only wonder where the line emblazoned as 'good intentions' truly is.

Incidentally, the posting of the worried utility worker, albeit a falsified rendering as per Rick's comments, still conjure up the question: would industry insiders go public with their concerns or just run for the hills (another old prediction from the doomsday crew)? At this point in time, can any utility guarantee service through the date rollover when such guarantees generally aren't given even in good times?

My utility uses all of the buzz words that seek to soothe our collective psyches. In a judicial setting, they add up to nothing. Interesting that no one with even a small PC who deals with the public can make broad proclamations until after the date rollover. I guess the speculation comes down to how you look at the glass of water....half full or half empty.

Keep up the good work, all. Your comments are appreciated.

-- Anonymous, June 30, 1999

A bogus post in another forum has a very similar tone and style to the one above, "y2k teamleader" post offered for your amusement.

I do wish the bogus posters would at least throw in a little humor the infamous Q7, 555 timer bogus post was funny to electrical types).

-- Anonymous, July 01, 1999

so if this post *IS* a fraud as Rick has pointed out

AND

if Rick threatened to yank it by July 1

why is it still up on July 2?

-- Anonymous, July 02, 1999

Plonk,

Maybe, just maybe, the reason the message has not been removed is because RC is enjoying a 3 day weekend with his family. However, that's just a wild guess, I could be wrong.

-- Anonymous, July 02, 1999

I don't read this column very often although I find it informative each time I do. And I understand both sides of the sentiment re: Gary North and his site.

What I haven't seen here is anyone answering the other potential problems utilities may have in the days and weeks after 1/1/2000 that North constantly makes reference to: primarily fuel supply in the form of coal. I refer to coal as the various sources extant in the U.S. report that we as a nation burn this polluting fuel source approx. 60% of the time to generate electricity.

Will we or will we not have supply problems that will or could contribute to serious generation problems?

(If someone would email me his/her response I would appreciate it as I'll be away from my computer for a few days and might miss any response in this forum.)

Thank you, Ray

-- Anonymous, July 03, 1999

"It's not what they say but what they do." The "World Gold Assn." wrote a report several months ago stating that the majority of gold coins at that time was being bought by persons in Silicon Valley.

Another post on this thread says he has not read anything on this forum about shortage of fuels. I have been posting about fuels for almost a year. Go to Search and type in my name. It's there.

-- Anonymous, July 03, 1999

I would like an explanation as to why this is thought to be a fraudulant post. It seems pretty clean to me, and my intuition about people is usually pretty good. Why wouldn't a person in his position create a post like that? Maybe he didn't reply to Rick's request to email him, because he is terrified of exposure, even though Rick is very trustworthy. Maybe he didn't feel like continuing to try to warn us, because he got such skepticism.

When I first became extremely concerned about Y2K at the end of last year, I started talking with everyone about it. I organized community meetings. I was told I was part of the problem. I was told I was extremist. The local paper refused to put an announcement for our April meeting, saying that we're making money doing this. (Ha ha) So we started having "private" meetings. We have a wonderful small community of people who have become friends and are meeting regularly. We've been putting in gardens, have started a food co-op, and are getting alternative power systems for our wells. We're again trying to reach out to the community this month. (The paper inserted a small article. I know other people contacted them about their concerns, and they apparently changed their minds.)

After the recent reports about everything being ok with the utilities, however, we probably won't get many people at our meeting. Because of the resistance, I've mostly given up trying to convince people of the problem. Maybe this person has given up as well.

I myself have inside information about something that happened around 11 years ago, that, if people believed, would bring me a lot of publicity, and danger from the people I'd be exposing. I've told a few people about it, and some of them didn't believe me. About seven years ago, I decided to put together an anonymous videotape about it, because I thought it was too important to let go. But I couldn't handle the fear. I had to drop it. Maybe this guy is feeling the same way.

If you're still following this post, I'd like to invite you to email me. I promise not to expose you, and would share information with this group in your defense. Please don't give up on us. It seems that the problem is your reference to the Phillips VRZ262-Q7 unit. Can you defend this example with greater detail? Can you provide other examples in detail so that the resident experts can be convinced of your sincerity.

To those of you who are convinced that this is a bogus post, especially you Rick, who I respect very much, I apologize if you feel I don't trust you. I am a technical writer, and work with engineers all the time, asking a lot of questions to get full understanding of what I'm writing about. Please don't feel offended by this insistant part of my professional nature, and innate desire to get to the bottom of this. The uncertainty of Y2k creates great risk for all of us. If there's a possibility of getting accurate information from an industry insider, I'd like to pursue it.

-- Anonymous, July 05, 1999

here is your answer Victoria, in case you didn't read the most recent post that reveal who really wrote this.

this is from Stephen Poole, (aka CET, aka smpoole), his "experiment in journalism".

From his website he explains:

The dead giveaway, of course, is the "Phillips[sic] VRZ262-Q7" unit, which is the model of a popular Philips VCR unit. The "Q7" appended to the end is a salute to Roleigh "Gump" Martin, who didn't even know enough about electronics to question a complete fabrication released about "non-compliant Q7 transistors" last year.

"05388" is the first 5 digits of the UPC code from a bottle of Spring Valley(tm) valerian root.

When it came to the "Siemens(tm) System 3," a little more thought was required. Siemens manufactures all sorts of control equipment, of course, including the Siemens SINAUT(tm) SCADA, for which the current software revision is 3.xx.

How do I know all this? Am I psychic?

No, I am the author of this piece of fiction. I wrote it as a test and to prove a point.

-- Anonymous, July 05, 1999