New Y2K Game: Death Pools : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread

from csy2k [ For Educational Purposes Only ]

Deja csy2k Thread: New Y2K Game: Death Pools

As a steady march of Y2K remediators continues to call our company ( and those of our competitors, making up a sizeable percentage of those who are now leading the "preparation pack," I received this "first person" phone report from a repeat customer: in a large company on the West Coast, one IT department has lost over 30% of their programmers in the last 45 days. (I can't give the programmer's name or the company, so don't ask. And anyone who is following the "Shoot the Messenger on Site" policies that corporations are enforcing out there will understand.)

What is the leading cause of this loss? Career moves? Retirement? The smart money already knows the answer: Y2K and the start of those who are executing their "bug out" plans..

But this one floored me: 18 who remained have gotten together, all mainframe programmers wholly or partially dedicated to their company's Y2K efforts, and initiated a "Death Poll."

It must be a guy thing. It used to be you pooled money to bet on the Green Bay Packers or the Washington Redskins.... Not these high IQ brainiacs. It's a Death Pool for those closely studying current Y2K conditions -- and it's got very simple rules: "Let each person guess just how many people will die in the year 2000 as a direct result of the massive Y2K failures that we all know are coming." I asked this caller what the present "range" was ... minima and maxima figures. I was expecting a range of, say, 2,000 to 500,000. Something like that.

I wasn't even close.

Their range goes from 22,000,000 to 87,000,000. That's right.... the 22,000,000 comes from this group's in-house Y2K polly.

It's gone up consistently in response to reports they are getting from other friends in other corporations who are working in the Y2K pits and getting more worried as each week passes and the "inside news" just keeps getting worse. I was chided when I asked if that wasn't a bit extreme, especially since mainstream news was so glowing. His response: "Forget the media. The programmers themselves are now networking and trading information because they don't trust any other source of reports on where Y2K is headed. The Pinnochio Factor is so widespread now that insiders are only trusting their own kind. As Y2K remediators, we don't "spin" amongst ourselves. We have no need to."

As it turns out, the pool is an attempt to get an accurate, consensual assessment as to how badly Y2K will affect the infrastructure... an unusual kind of quantitative measure as to the level of severity.

These guys are deadly serious.

(P.S. ---- For those interested in hearing the latest reports we're getting from "inside the REAL Y2K beltway," join our chat room session every Tuesday night at We meet for an hour or two. Programmers make up the bulk of our group, and you won't have to wade through any Clinton-loving, polly-speak. It's factual. It's free. And like the old days of this NG, you'll actually learn something. cya there.).

Greg Caton
Lumen Foods (
...Greg, I'm surprised. I plan to keep working with my clients through the rollover and into 2000. Of course, I retain the option of dropping back from Site-A to Site-B and possibly Site-C if the situation deteriorates.

Given that one of my superprogrammer pals is already at a Site-B (well outside the city in a small bedroom community, food, water, power, you know the score.) and another, the Baron, is working hard at Site-C, which is beyond Mt. Weather, the Federal Emergency Center. If the muties make it to the F.E.C., they have another half hour drive to get to DragonRanch.

...Is that world-wide or just in the U.S. (population 250 million).

...What fun, betting on death. Do they have subscriptions to "Morbidity and Mortality Weekly", MMW, have they passed their actuarial exams or are they amateurs, bar room sweepings?

-brrrr- I hope they don't work for a Life Insurance Company. If those are entries from Life System programmers, we're toast.

I'm still guessing that tm_year flaws kill at least 100 people. Of course proving that will be difficult but if the die-off is anything like they're predicting, I take the pot, proof by inspection.

...Well, there are times when the "You call that a Y2K scare story, let me tell YOUUUUU a Y2K scare story" effect kicks in.

There are some things we do know. The remediation failed some time last year. All companies will suffer some kind of Y2K system failure. The top tier firms will be able to fix these problems. There seem to be very few top tier firms.

Most companies will suffer intractable and persisting system failures.

What we don't know is how the chaos in the back room will flow to society in general. I used to work at insurance companies. If a large insurance company takes a persisting hit, it is possible for them to stay in business for several months. They would be flying blind, they would live off the cash in their pipeline but they could last months, perhaps as long as a year.

They would do things like authorize their agents and claim officers to hand write checks or letters promising payment when the systems come back.

Hopefully they are printing hardcopy or pressing CD-Roms of their customer base for their claims processors, most claims offices already have laptops with CD-Rom drives. ...

From your description, they are the Pollies. The real doomers have already bailed out. I'll have another account of this in WRP 122 which should be available in a couple days.

cory hamasaki
------------------------------------------------------------- ...So I've heard. (The "Hamasaki" approach.) In actuality, I've chosen that approach as well. If we have to drop back to Site-B this fall, so be it. (Site C is 5 miles away from a Texas town of 3,000 people.)

...Just the U.S., of course. Does any sensible person on this board honestly believe that we couldn't possibly see these numbers exceeded just in Russia alone?

... The overtone of the conversation was quite analytical and serious. There was nothing light-hearted about it. Sure, people love to trade fish stories. But these programmers realize we have enough fish stories out there already. Why network together as professionals and circumvent other channels of information if the case studies you share are just going to hoist more horseshit on top of more horseshit?

People who take Y2K seriously are making what could turn out to be life and death decisions. You of all people on this NG know this. My sense is that if someone within this particular circle of programmers started "weaving the yarn" it would be seriously rebuked if uncovered.

...In their efforts (quite justifiable) to minimize union wage compensation and add flexibility, we all know that there ARE no first tier firms who do not heavily rely on smaller, weaker vendors, many of whom fill mission critical roles. It doesn't matter whether or not the top tier firms are going to make it or not. It only matters whether or not their infrastructural furniture is still standing after you've wacked the legs out from underneath their leather-clad, executive chairs.

...To a large extent, I agree. But if I'm one of your drinking buddies, and the IT dept. position I hold at a large public utility gives me access to information that shows that the workarounds being developed are not workable, and there is over a 50% chance that we won't be able to distribute power for the first 4 weeks of 2000, we already know how that chaos is going to flow ... "Oh honey... what did you do with my copy of Sorokin's "Man & Society in Calamity" ?"

...Live off their cash. With 47% from the latest Gallup Poll now saying they're going to withdraw their cash. 47% when it's only June and no serious student of Y2K on this NG doesn't think that the fall will not bring more ominous leaks to the still largely clueless herds...

Pray tell. What cash?

...This will work if problems can be minimized to a small window time-frame. Beyond a couple of weeks, "letters promising payment" mean nothing. You can't use them to secure groceries.

... A couple of months ago, I might have attempted to argue otherwise. Not anymore.

Those of us in the field appreciate your WRP reports (even if we don't always agree)... so, yes... I'm looking forward to a thorough reading. If you want to talk to any of my contacts, I think they'd be agreeable.... and lastly, we'd feel honored if you could drop by Tuesday night to exchange other insights with some of our other programmers (

If you plan to pull a "Yourdon" any time soon, do give us some warning before you pen your "Sayonara" letter. I, for one, have always enjoyed your input.

Greg Caton

[ cory responding to a polly ]
... Here, I'll clarify it for you. I've been nattering about companies that are done, DONE, and I know they're done. I've seen their SILOs, been on the console of the 9672 Time Machine. One of these done, DONE companies is in serious contingency preparation mode. Some of their activities are *extreme*.

This company is the smart money and the smart money says they can't take a chance on failures. Generator? They've got two big honking diesels. Food, water, 4WDs, cash, CASH for employees if the ATMs fail. All kinds of extreme survivalist stuff. Back up computer system in another state fed by another utility company.

They're done but if enough else fails, they go down too. So if you want to make finger flicking motions and sniff that you know one or two shops that are done, it doesn't count unless, oh, 80% of the enterprises are done.

The criteria for a good result is now 4,000 of the Fortune 5,000, done, certified done by pit-bulls like Joel Willemsen of the GAO. In December 1998, a few anecdotes or peep-peep chirps would have sufficed but this is June 1999. You don't get to wave a hanky and sniff that you know one or two places that might be OK so we can infer that alls well.

Since we don't have 4,000 out of the Fortune 5,000, the remediation failed.

If you have evidence that 40,000 of the 50,000 IBM style mainframes are running Y2K compliant code, please share it with us. We're not interested in reports that someone is on schedule for completion in September, leaving a full three months for testing.

June 1999. Each month that goes by the burden of proof becomes more intense. In December 1999, it would not be too much to hold hostages, to use the rack on the MIS director, give him a taste 'o the cat.

...No, that's sound risk management. Again, the company that I know to be done bought up all the hotel rooms within 1/4 mile of their primary computer center for News Years Evil. They will have their *entire* IT staff on site, catered dinner, entertainment, whatever the F*** people want, but no one will be more than a few steps from the computer and terminals during the roll.

They're acting as if they expect a complete system meltdown. And they're DONE. They were testing all of 1998 and yes, it did take a full year for testing.

Looking at their attitude, it's clear that they're expecting a major failure.

...Depressed? I make my living fixing systems. This is *great news*. I found a situation where a "big name" consulting company charged $3,000 for two hours work, they made 4 JCL changes to production jobs.

Please everyone, don't fix your systems in the remaining 200 or so days. Have I learned to write a bill for emergency repairs.

Think of it as emergency open heart surgery.

-wheeet- -wheeeet- -wheeeeet- (the sound of knives being sharpened.)

cory hamasaki

More to follow ...

xxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxx xxxxx

-- Ashton & Leska (, June 24, 1999


I say 1 billion globally in 2000 and 2001. Then, a pretty steady negative population growth for the rest of the decade. By 2010, population will probably level out at about 3.5 to 4 billion. That's not counting nuclear wars, though. Then, double it.

-- (, June 24, 1999.

[ continued ]

... I disagree with the 90% estimate. I'd guess well under 100,000, about the impact of a major influenza epidemic but not as bad as the 1919 Spanish Lady Flu Pandemic.

Most of these would be secondary and tertiary, a software breakdown causes a shortage of some reagent or component, that delays the production of an item that keeps someone alive.

A scheduling problem interrupts service and a frustrated herd of Pollies goes into a frenzy, starts tearing at their clothes, kicking, biting, snorting, and goring at each other. One of the Pollies manages to inflict a fatal wound.

I'm guessing that the economic impact will be like 1929-1939, that we won't have a major war, and that there will be a lot of muddling through.

What's really irritating is that it doesn't have to be this bad. If everyone had started a year ago, we'd be ready for the system failures.

If all, most corporations had pressed as hard as a few did, the systems would still fail but we'd be able to shrug the failures off. Keep people working, fed, keep enough running that we'd be back in business in a few months.

But no, Spin was the name of the game. We're worried about perception when we should be worried about basic functionality. It's like waxing a car with a blown motor.

But as InfoMagic says, I could be wrong, it could be worse.

I don't have a Plan-D. I'm not sure how I'd prep for something that would take us down that far.

Note: I'm not arguing with Steve Heller; the InfoMagic scenario has occurred lots of times in history. While we normally think of war, there have been Pandemics, climatic changes, natural disasters, and a few situations that are still poorly understood.

The fall of the Central American civilization of the Mayans is still a mystery. I've been to Tikal and the evidence suggests that the people abandoned their cities when some kind of organizational failure occurred. The buildings are intact, it's as if one day, they just walked away.

My hope is that enough people are ready enough that most of us will walk away from this. Even if we're a little banged up, we'll be able to help rebuild the world.

We still have 190 days, we need every programmer, documentation person, hardware fixer, tester, to get as much fixed and certified between now and the roll. Each fix is one less problem. I know we're not going to be able to get to everything but we have to do what we can.

We need to move past our anger at the Pollies and Spinmeisters, they will always be with us. Our goal is to soften the impact.

cory hamasaki 190 Days

Consider this: many programmers, etc. working on y2k (I'm not), are _likely_ to be working on systems for companies that may not survive to nine month out, much less survive and thrive. Isn't doing y2k work for such companies much like rearranging deck chairs on any old sinking ship? Isn't it _wasted_ effort? I think that your comment encourages the notion that work is progress, a notion that I think is totally false (even though progress cannot occur without work), particularly in the context of something so global as y2k.


... I'm not quite that [Infomagic] pessimistic, believe it or not. I think we will pull through as a species, but it may be a close thing.

... I think that is the wrong goal, or at least an incomplete goal, at this point.
We have to be ready to rebuild civilization starting from technologies that don't depend on computers. Steam engines, for example, can be built without computers. "Wagner's Chemical Technology 1872" lists many industrial processes that don't even need electricity, much less computers.

Skilled machinists are likely to be the most critical resource after the crash; we will have to keep them alive at all costs. We also need blueprints for relatively simple devices, including steam boilers and engines, that can be made with relatively simple tools. A steam engine can run on unrefined fuels, so its supply chain is very short. This will be invaluable in trying to reboot the economy.

Steve Heller, WA0CPP

[ Greg replying to a polly ]

... They aren't "dime-a-dozen" jobs to those who want them, sought them, hold them, and use the resulting weekly paychecks to not only cover essentials, but have to deal with the extra burden of Y2K preparations -- the absence of which they truly feel would make them negligent as householders (if not ultimately dead). Really, Steve, ol' buddy. Ask 'em.

By the way.
They DO name names.
Lots of them. In my position I get to hear them daily... and I pass them on to other credible people with great regularity...
They simply refuse to waste their time or energy on people who can't mentally process the information they're able to provide. Why invite ridicule to convince others on matters for which you yourself have crystal clarity? That's all risk and no benefit. Why do it? (a la Yourdon).

Are we starting to get the picture here?
The proverbial "throwing pearls before swine." ???
That Biblical kinda Jesus thing???
That parable kinda thing???......

Hello? HELLO???????
Anybody HOME ?????

Greg Caton

Having money means a chance to spend it in ways that might minimise the probability of becoming one of the dead in a multimegadeath scenario.


[ Greg responding to a Polly ]

Yada... yada... yada... And it's cerebrally atrophied NG lurkers such as yourself who won't engage the sources in the first place. That's why we have a discussion group on Tuesday nights in the first place. Not everyone agrees on everything. But the exchange of information is worthwhile, and you get to talk to the "sources."

The "survival food" cheap shot isn't just weak... it's emblematic of the kind of mindless deterioration that has c.s.y2k down an intellectual hell hole.

You want to engage us. Go ahead. Bring facts, figures, and at least semi-confirmable anecdotes. It also helps if you can negotiate well with your keyboard.

If you think that the most important information on Y2K is not going to come from people who are not somehow tied to the process commercially, then you're a complete idiot and people who REALLY want to know the probable outcomes of Y2K (good, bad or indifferent) aren't going to listen to you anyways. This cynical insouciance intent on bashing all things commercial will, of course, have one good outcome: it will make it easier for the rest of us to see why and how the "thinning of the herd" was well overdue -- regardless of whether or not you buy into the most basic tenets of Natural Law.

Greg Caton

xxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxx x

-- Ashton & Leska in Cascadia (, June 24, 1999.

So, @ 6 Billion ppl on the planet now. CIA report we read last Autumn said 3/4 death possible re Y2K, 3/4 of 6 = 4.5 Billion ppl wiped away. Did InfoMagic say 4 Billion?

We'd say 1/2 of all the planet's people -- 3 Billion dead by 2004. That's Y2K and all the correlated disasters it spawns.

xxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxx

-- Ashton & Leska in Cascadia (, June 24, 1999.

DO you think, perfect speller,s will have an advantage?ask them if they still think i,m an a..hole, because i,m stashing,in more than 1 place??...& let them scorn my egg-lady-post.let them talk that[big-brain stuff] to desperate,hard-core street=people.who have no-fear of jail or can,t stay awake 24\7 you laughed, when i said>secure your perimeter.any ex-marines out there?give em a clue.

-- al-d. (CATT@ZIANET.COM), June 24, 1999.


People who don't fear police and jails are usually the ones who wind up being in one(jails) and spending an abnormal amount of time with them(police). You might ask yourself wether or not your average street smart criminal is really all that smart at all. You seem to be pretty well aqauinted with that type, and by judging your grammar I'd say you weren't all that smart. You know, it's not thermonuclear pyschics to use a space bar once in a while, and use these "'" insetad of these",". You say your so very well equipped to handle every day life in the 'hood, jungle, jail, whatever and yet you can't even puncuate correctly. Pardon me, but if you can't even spell or use a keyboard then how can you be any better then us? Many people here have survival skills... we know hot to camp for long term periods... we know how to aim and pull a trigger and some have even fought wars and done just that. So what is your beef with literate elite? Are you really under the impression that everyone who is a smarty is not also street smart?

Well if you do, then your wrong and ignorant. And that is probably why you find yourself on the street so much and why your always in jail. Hmmm? THINK about it.

-- (al-d@lies but that. is besides the point), June 24, 1999.

WRONG, 90% of street people are not the problem,& i,m not> is ablessing, if it doesn,t go to your head[pun].there are highly educated jerks-&-highly ed.REAL-PEOPLE. head knowledge is no guarentee of wisdom.a good person is a good person,regardless of there ,station in life.but i,m amazed at the pig-mouth,put-down-flaming i get,from the so-called elite.others on this forum mention GOD, no flames. i don,t spell perfect-so i,m less than? i thought ALL men we,re created equal.[flame-on]maybe my post,s seem senseless to some,they don,t ask,al could you clarify, something.yet isee others this and,that. no-problem. so maybe,my post,s aren,t relaying,what i,m really trying to get across.the bottom line is i took a stand, concerning the spiritual-factor of have-others.that,s the problem,hidden behind the al your an un-educated biggee, i was reading some old-posts by a mr. invar, i noted,that he was called hypocrite a few times.alot of folks on this forum,when saying sayonara,to someone,end by saying>& god bless.are they hypocrites?no i,m not proud of my[35 plus years ago past]the point i was trying to make was> so many people judge outwardly, instead of looking into the the egg-lady post, see how many nasty responses there are.and these are your elite?? no wonder america is going to hell, on roller skates.what about the sicko-posts in my problem right?delete al-d. but the pigmouths can skate.yah sometimes i get down & dirty. but not slimy. come back to this post to-morrow && see the best of the>elite.?????

-- al-d. (CATT@ZIANET.COM), June 24, 1999.

Ashton & Leska: Do you have a link for that CIA report you read last fall?

-- fake (, June 24, 1999.

Steering this thread back on track, how many Yourdynamites realize how many elders are in adult foster homes, assisted living facilities, nursing homes, etc? Is is astonishing how the elderly are placed in the USA! And these places are running on very tight staffing, not nearly enough, and they will disgorge these residents/patients VERY QUICKLY if utilities go down for more than 3 days.

Because of cold, lack of medications, lack of sanitation, and the predatory callous nature of many humanimals, we think *many* elderly people will pass over next January.

We see the most incredible voracious grab-steal-undercut-backstab murder behaviors cropping up around death and disability -- yes even among family members who are seen as outstanding "church" people by others -- not a flame-bait, simply an observation. One of the rattiest nasties we've ever encountered at death was a lay minister! The scruple-trampling greed for worthless material pickings is appalling.

If you haven't seen this firsthand you cannot imagine the horrifying driving looting impulse which will overtake people when they realize they can get away with it and "everybody else is doing it."

xxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxx

-- Ashton & Leska in Cascadia (, June 24, 1999.

Again with the whining, I'm so hurt by all your flaming. Al-d, you were warned about what happens to your kind around here. You go to any other y2k site and post in such giberish and I guarentee you'll get the same. If you find it so truly hard to be here amidst us jerks then go away... very simply... go away. Every other one of your posts is about how mean it is to ridicule you and then every other post from that says how you have such a thick skin and it doesn't bother you. The bottom line is, if you post like you have no facility for the English language then your sure to get flamed, no matter how nice you are. Thats the facts Jack. If you can't deal with just go away... simply go away. You can't change people around here so you might as well stop trying and let us "elite" alone. Why do you keep acting like everything is cool and then go on some rant about how we are dragging this country down to Hell on rollerskates. I guess it msy be your hypocritical, ignorant side dominating you. If you don't know what hypocrite means go look it up.

Oh and by the way... ah nevermind you get the idea.

-- (Al-d@must learn. the hard way apparently), June 24, 1999.

al-d IS INVAR!

-- finally (figured@it.out), June 24, 1999.

A and L, that elder bit hit a nerve. My dear mother-in-law is in a retirement home where we asked about Y2K and they don't believe anything will happen but if it does they will close down. She is in a wheelchair and diapers and is hard to take care of. Plus she is hard to have around and complains and can't remember what is done for her. DH gets tense when she is around and add that to other difficulties, I'm not looking forward to this.

-- don't want it (, June 24, 1999.

This thread has really gotten me upset. To actually think of all the helpless people who might die because no one cared enough to provide is something we all will have to answer to one day.

-- Carol (, June 24, 1999.

It isn't even just the elderly, you guys. Has anyone been in a special ed class in any of the public schools? These kids aren't just some *new* project here. There are a number of adults out there as well, who to be honest, won't stand a chance. In nature, the weak and vulnerable are left behind in order to keep the species 'sound and strong'. As humans, this thought is repulsive and cruel. So is what is about to unfold. We cannot mourn before the fact. Protect who you can, now......there will be ample time to mourn later. If there is one thing I AM an expert in, it would have to be mourning. It will stop you dead in your tracks if left unchecked. Focus on the surviving, and the rebuilding for those who make it to the other side! We must prepare for all the new lives yet to appear.

-- Will continue (, June 24, 1999.

Ashton & Leska:

You have brought up many disturbing issues regarding the elderly. WTSHTF and food is scarce, I can imagine many starving young people breaking into retirement homes and centers, killing old persons guarding their meager provisions. OTOH, in some retirement centers, corrupt staff members will probably steal their provisions before the "nonsalaried" looters appear. Hard times are coming.

-- Randolph (, June 24, 1999.

Nursing homes will be squoze between a rock and a hard place. How can they evict their clients if the only place they can put them is out on the street in winter? Or to some relative's home which also lacks heat and water? And a number of these residents are unable to walk, are tied to feeding tubes, IV drips, etc. etc. Nitty-gritty facts.

-- Tom Carey (, June 25, 1999.

When one does hospice in this land of overflowing abundance, milk and honey, good times, and perpetually sees that cloak of dark avarice descending upon family and "friends" around an ill person, and watches murder after murder after murder and the throwing off of decency and humanity in a slobbering rush to "get at" the stuff in the house/inheritance/money in the bank, the one can easily imagine what any whiff of hardship will do to stimulate the vultures -- past any meager attempt at rationalization even.

Have been watching/tracking natural disasters/hard times in other countries -- have posted some of these articles -- and LOOTING seems to be the first reaction. We have seen such a cold hardening freezing out love, friendship, respect and consideration that we have lost much hope for a soft landing.

What is unbearably sickening is when a wealthy, have-everything (materially) family member decides that since, when the pt dies, the pt's money becomes theirs, that it IS theirs, and therefore they deserve and want it NOW, and why spend it on that family member, who is dying anyway, and is helpless and defenseless and cannot tell any tales -- kill that "thing" fast and be done with the "burden" and get those greedy strangling fingers around that bank account NOW.

When the lights go out and ppl become aware that society is suspended in the darkness, those wolverine instincts will bare their fangs and go hunting, thirsting, ripping for blood and booty.

xxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxx

-- Ashton & Leska in Cascadia (, June 25, 1999.

Carol -- no one is morally or ethically obligated to do the impossible. You do as much as you can. No one can do more. Triage is no picnic, but it is ethical.

-- Tom Carey (, June 25, 1999.

anap please--

Skilled machinists are likely to be the most critical resource after the crash; we will have to keep them alive at all costs. We also need blueprints for relatively simple devices, including steam boilers and engines, that can be made with relatively simple tools. A steam engine can run on unrefined fuels, so its supply chain is very short. This will be invaluable in trying to reboot the economy.

Steve Heller, WA0CPP --end snip

Does this think what I mean? Am I goin' to get a raise? `
-- Michael (, June 25, 1999.

What, to build enough crematoriums? Michael you an undertaker or something? Or boil them for soylent green?

-- regular (, June 25, 1999.

I'm trying to arrange for a machinist to live near me, so I'll have his services after the big crash. He and others who know how to build machines are going to be sorely needed to restart civilization.

-- Steve Heller (, June 25, 1999.

A & l,

I'm going to be sick now.

Good night.


-- Thomas G. Hale (, June 25, 1999.

No major war?

What about North Korea deciding that a window of opportunity has opened...and that if it does not move south, its population will starve?

Or Pakistan deciding that the time has come to even the score and sends a nuclear tipped missile (or truck) deep into India (or the other way around)?

Or Iraq, or Iran, or Greece, or Turkey, or Syria, or... deciding...

I would bet on the depression, but I wouldn't bet on peace.

-- Mad Monk (, June 25, 1999.

Ashton & Leska: you have, sadly, hit the nail on the head. This culture of death will end in death, and deservedly so. We have abandoned love as a guiding principle of human communities. Love could pull us through what is coming, but hatred: hate will destroy us. I see the hatred on people's faces every morning, commuting to work, I see it at malls on the faces of teens, and I see the fear. And that's with Dow 10,000 and the lights on! We reap what we sow, and we Americans have been busy sowing, in our culture and in our polity, the seeds of destruction. As I said in a post to Milne a long time ago, if things go 8 or 9 or 10, then it is the meek who will inherit the earth: the indegenous third-world farmers, who have always faced privation, and struggled through, upheld by cultures of love and faith.

-- Spidey (in@jam.commie), June 25, 1999.

A & L - right on 'bout the elderly. My 85 yo independently living (with the exception of Dr. Rx drugs) grandmother has now become excited about spending the rollover with us here. I have honestly told her that i'm not sure what will happen but if things get really bad at least she will be living with family, won't freeze, & won't starve. Hey, & we will be having one hell of a community party New Years Eve (I hope) and this old lady still is a coquette and loves a good time. I feel honored that she is saying "yes"!

-- Mitchell Barnes (, June 25, 1999.

(This seems to have morphed into two parallel threads-- I don't need to expand on the metaphorical kinship they have.)

On the fabrication of steam engines -- machine tools will be needed to fabricate the parts. What's going to run them? My father long ago ran two clay sewer pipe plants (1930's, 1940's). All the equipment used was belt driven from a single power plant, a monster coal-fired steam engine with a 12 foot diameter flywheel. The maze of shafting and belting that delivered power throughout all three floors was something to behold.

Coming back up to speed with steam will not happen in a hurry.

-- Tom Carey (, June 25, 1999.

Greg Caton is so full of it, that it is incredible. I have gotten several emails from people, who asked that I never use their names, with stories about Caton. One reads "the scariest time I ever spent in my life was on the phone with Caton. He wanted me to do whatever it took to buy a long term supply of food from him, and only him." People who know him are not very happy with him. He is not a good source for information.

He was ridiculed on GNIABFI quite throughly back in January, when he decided he was going to show us all up.

That last one shows a real Christian spirit, don't you think?

-- Paul Davis (, June 25, 1999.

Ashton & Leska - Y2K means my very elderly, frail and cranky parents moving in with me. Surely, the definition of TEOTW As I Know It. Something I have absolutely dreaded, yet know that I have a moral imperative under my family's particular circumstances to get on with it and to prepare for their arrival. Thank you so much for reminding me why. Six more months - they might not even be alive then, or they might have deteriorated beyond the care that I could provide on my own. Thank you for all of your insights, and please continue to try to instill in us the compassion we will all need to see this through.

-- Brooks (, June 25, 1999.

Many people probably feel compassion from a distance. It's those long weeks of slogging through the drudgery of custodial care that wear a person/family down. Especially no sleep because pt anxiety, restlessness, and confusion increase at night.

What really helps is to have the elder *do* something useful and necessary to the household. It is worth the time and patience to arrange little tasks that elder is responsible for contributing. They need to be a part of life. Even the Alzheimers pts can fold laundry and give the pets attention. Cross-generational activity works well -- have the elder read to children or teach them simple skills or tell them stories of "how it used to be done." *That* may really come in handy!

We often find ourselves just not believing anything will change one iota, that this dream sequence of daily life will go on exactly as is, while away the golden days.

Other times ... when hard logic and reality intrude ... knowing the marginal care vast numbers of elderly are receiving now ... 3 Billion seems too low. Looking at a 6-10, after a few million die, there's that body-disposal-in-winter problem, which spreads death "like a plague."

The machinery angle we find very interesting; please continue!

xxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxx

-- Ashton & Leska in Cascadia (, June 25, 1999.

>On the fabrication of steam engines -- machine tools will be needed to fabricate the parts. What's going to run them?

Existing steam engines. That's why having one, even a very small one like the "Mike Brown engine", is so important.


>Coming back up to speed with steam will not happen in a hurry.

No, it won't. But it's the only way I can see it happening at all.

-- Steve Heller (, June 26, 1999.

INVAR is finally (figured@it.out)

-- delete (al@ple-e-e-e-ase.ohplease), June 26, 1999.

Don't think Invar is anybody but Invar.
Steam engines, machinists valuable to have around!
Brooks, what signs will you be alert to for bringing your parents home?
PD, Greg writes well. Maybe he'll defend himself on here; we sent him the URL.
Tom, thank you for always posting interesting and useful info! Have missed seeing your clear writing.

Mitchell, hope your New Years party will become a brilliant memory.
Thanks for your many thought-provoking posts on the darker side of Y2K possibilities, including aftermaths of disease and body disposal.
Nobody wants to think of this stuff but far better to be prepared in advance. Of course none of us want any of this to actually happen.

Spidey, we could not agree with you more! The last couple days you've written such right-on posts -- thanks for your time & energy & thoughts.

Mad Monk, we see the dogs of war digging 'n barking ...
Father Hale, trust you are much better now, sorry but we just write what we see, and often we just can't believe what we see and it haunts us, nobody to talk to about it but God.

Steve Heller, thanx for migrating here from csy2k! Have you lurked here before?

Randolph, yes, the quality of the "helpers" is not always the highest. Efforts to weed out those with criminal & abuse records, but we still hear stories ... it's really sad. Families get too desperate and wait until the last minute. Preplanning helps avoid tragic mistakes of placement.

Will Continue, as always your tough-minded-skinned posts are read with keen enjoyment. Your customers must be in stitches!

Carol, we're upset too, especially because we see monstrosities while everything is picture perfect. Pray that Y2K be a teeny bump.

Don't Want It, sounds like maybe you should look into finding a good foster care home that is preparing for Y2K.

CIA report is linked somewhere in archives around September/November 1998. Tried to re-find it before but searching is unmanageable for us now. Don't remember the thread title or category.

Dot, thanks for hazarding a guess on the poll/pool! Of course nobody knows; it's just a way to look at Y2K from another angle. We think Y2K may trigger opportunistic nuclear war. Resentment will be hot.

We think technically, computer-wise, systems, Y2K will be a 4, and humanimals will push it to an 8.

Unfortunately we aren't seeing a mellowing or spiritual advancement coming over people. If this Forum is any indication of the polarity or hardening out there ... can you even imagine what January will be like?

xxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxx xxxxxx

-- Ashton & Leska in Cascadia (, June 26, 1999.

Actually, I've posted a few messages here before, I think about ham radio, which I consider extremely important for Y2K. After all, any expertise that anyone has will be invaluable, and the only way we'll be able to tap into that expertise except on a local level will be via 2-way amateur radio. That's why I got my license and set up my station, which can run on Nicads.

-- Steve Heller (, June 27, 1999.

Steve, that is great! We're in a portion of Cascadia that values ham radio operators highly. They're the crux of civilian disaster prep. See last article on

A Refresher post on Ham Radio

xxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxx

-- Ashton & Leska in Cascadia (, June 27, 1999.

*shakes head* It's official, you folks have gone over the edge of sanity. "Hey everyone! Let's see if we can guess the death toll! We are the smartest people EVER!"

You people are a psychological study waiting to happen

-- Sick Of Ya (, June 28, 1999.

Correction, "a psychological study that *IS* happening"

Mankind at its worse.


-- Psych Major (psychob@b.ler), June 28, 1999.

This is the thread that has the Debauchies in a snit fit. They are so simplistic as to think if a Y2K Prep Forum imagines worst-case statistics ahead of time, that the posters WANT terrible things to happen.

Dummers - NO, doomscoffs, those who look ahead try to see possibilities in order to PREPARE so bad things DON'T happen.
Foresight. An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure.

The news does not augur well for those muffled screechers with their heads in the sand and their back claws kicking up blinding sandstorm flurries.

Better a Doomer than a Dummer. Who will be better prepared?

xxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxx

-- Ashton & Leska in Cascadia (, July 02, 1999.

Moderation questions? read the FAQ