I have been doing a dissection of questions on this forum. I have divided the questions into Structure Questions (power stations and lines - production and transmission of electricity) and Foundation Questions (everything that applies except production and transmission issues.) Build a strong foundation in your mind and construct a power station and lines on top of the foundation.

Structure questions are answered by the forum's engineers as that is their area of expertise. The majority of answers from our resident engineers seems to be, "Less problems than we thought, it's okay, don't worry." You may or may not agree.

It is the Foundation of the Structure that is trembling and may move and erode, destroying the ability of the electrical Structure to function.

The forum's engineers cannot answer Foundation questions as the questions are out of the engineers' purview.

What are the Foundation problems/questions that could/may bring down electricity production/delivery that engineers strive to provide?

Here are some major ones - WILL WE HAVE ELECTRICITY IF:

1. TELECOMMUNICATIONS fail?

2. WATER delivery fails? (water=steam=turbines turning=electricity)

3. electric companies' BUSINESS COMPUTERS fail?

4. POST OFFICE can't deliver payments to the company?

5. BANKS can't process information? How will the electric company buy supplies/parts if they have NO ELECTRONIC MONEY capability?

6. PARTS from FOREIGN COUNTRIES cannot be bought?

7. parts are bought from foreign countries but they can't be shipped due to noncompliant SHIPS and PORTS?

8. parts that arrive in the US can't be documented and accepted because CUSTOMS is not compliant?

9. parts get through customs but can't be shipped due to breakdown in DELIVERY SYSTEMS - TRUCKS/TRAINS/AIR?

10. there is inadequate FUEL for electric companies to burn? An adequate supply depends on compliant FOREIGN COUNTRIES, FOREIGN SHIPS, FOREIGN PORTS, FOREIGN CANALS.

In summary, it is our foundation that may not hold due to US sectors' failures and our dependence on foreign countries. We have little/no control over foreign countries thereby creating our Achilles heel, foreign dependence. The bottom line is we will not, cannot, know if we will have electricity. We have exported our ability to ensure electricity in 2000. Never in our history have we been so vulnerable, so dependent, on other countries for our welfare.

It is the independent thinker and doer with a strong ego that will prepare for what may come. Persons without these traits will tend to be too timid to buck the collective PR and to overcome the inner fear of perhaps being ridiculed by friends and family. Marcella

-- Anonymous, June 22, 1999

Answers

Right, so..

We are all 'betting' on total outcomes as best we can.

How are you integrating this info, Marcella? Do you have a self-sufficient commune I can invest in??

Thanks for the read....

-- Anonymous, June 22, 1999

Its not fair, Marcella, to talk about the inter-dependencies. But now that you mention them, I would like to add that at one time I thought that power failures would bring down the banks, but that was probably wrong. Now I think that the bank failures will bring dowe the power systems.

-- Anonymous, June 22, 1999

Hello Marcella. I think you are being a bit presumptuous by saying that engineers on this forum cannot handle the so-called "foundation" questions. And I must say that it appears to be "bash the engineers" week on this forum...you know, we don't see the big picture, only little pieces, etc.

Take your very first question, will telecommunications failures shut down power. There are engineers at most power companies with communications backgrounds that know precisely how those systems are applied in the power industry. Remember, engineering is "applied science." There are engineers with this expertise that are working on the telecomm y2k issue (we affectionately call them "commies"); as a matter of fact, it is discussed heavily at the EPRI and NERC Y2k conferences.

If all communications failed of course power delivery would become impossible over time. A better question to ask is "What portions of the telecomm industry are susceptible to Y2k problems, and what effect could this have on power delivery?" Many companies have built and maintain their own comm systems, so Y2k testing and vendor verification of readiness go a long way to answering the question.

-- Anonymous, June 23, 1999

There are engineers with this expertise that are working on the telecomm y2k issue (we affectionately call them "commies"); as a matter of fact, it is discussed heavily at the EPRI and NERC Y2k conferences.

Discussions? Heavy. :-)

At one company I used to work for, they've been having a lot of heavy discussions about the conversion of their computer system from VAX/VMS RMS to Oracle database. Lots of discussion. Heavy discussions.

The conversion is now sixty-two weeks behind schedule.

They're still having lots of discussions....

-- Anonymous, June 23, 1999

Telecom and engineers - I was speaking about the engineers on this forum. This forum's engineers discuss electric generation and delivery. I remember no discussion from them about telecom. There may be other forums where engineers speak about telecom but not here. That is what I meant about "Foundation" problems; you have to go somewhere else to get answers about Foundation problems, you won't find them here. Rick keeps this forum focused on generation and delivery. If you want to know if we will have electricity you must go outside this forum to connect all the dots that must work before you have electricity. As some on this forum know, I am a strong "connect the dots" person, been trying to do that for many months and bringing my concerns in that regard to this forum.

-- Anonymous, June 23, 1999

lonelywoman, Self sufficiency is a staggering proposition when one is talking about year 2000. In a worst case scenario we will be living as my grandparents lived. It was easier for them, they had the tools necessary to live without electricity. We don't and have to quickly devise methods to give us a decent standard of living. I have examined one day in my life from the moment I wake up until the end of the day when I sleep again and determined what is necessary to provide me with the necessities of life if there is no electricity. I made a list and began to put together the essentials. I am still working on it.

-- Anonymous, June 23, 1999

Marcella,

You are certainly asking a lot of good questions, and spotlighting a lot of weak links. I agree with you about the electical engineers on this forum, they seem to take the position that there really isn't anything much to worry about. But they are only a few voices, and many other voices from within the industry say otherwise. I have a good friend who's son has been in electric power management for a number of years now. Last year he didn't think there was any big problem either, but now he does. In fact as we near the important dates ahead, he sees slow delivery of critical replacement parts, and patchwork on software, and is becoming more and more concerned. So you can believe the guys that post here, and feel secure, or you can believe a bunch of the others who do not feel this secure themselves. Regarding the daily runs you have made, that sounds like a terrific way to test some potential scenarios. Have you considered posting such a story on the Yourdon forum, since I don't think it would be considered on topic here.

-- Anonymous, June 23, 1999

Gordon,

You said: "...the electical engineers on this forum, they seem to take the position that there really isn't anything much to worry about. But they are only a few voices, and many other voices from within the industry say otherwise."

Can you provide sources (URLs etc.) for this? [This is a genuine request.] The only kind of discussion I've heard about this is from Drew Parkhill. He has said (I think it was 2 or 3 months ago now) that *some* of his contacts in electric utilities were worried about Y2K, but more from a fuel availability position. I also think he said that most of his contacts were not directly involved in Y2K remediation. [Drew, please feel free to correct me if I have mis- stated what you said.]

Regards

-- Anonymous, June 23, 1999

Marcella,

I don't know what you are getting at. In your first post you said:

"The forum's engineers cannot answer Foundation questions as the questions are out of the engineers' purview."

By this I understand you to be saying that such questions are more difficult for them to answer, maybe even too difficult, because it isn't their are of expertise. So, I understand you as saying that they will either dodge them or tell you that they simply don't know what to think.

But when Dan the Power Man provided an answer on one of those issues you responded:

"....you have to go somewhere else to get answers about Foundation problems, you won't find them here. Rick keeps this forum focused on generation and delivery. If you want to know if we will have electricity you must go outside this forum....."

It seems to me that this has mooted your point. You make it sound like the engineers don't respond to such questions because this forum is not the place to discuss them. Is this what you meant to say, or am I misunderstanding you? On the surface you seem to be avoiding Dan's challenge to your statement.

Overall, though, you have a good argument. I am just wondering what you meant in your response.

Thanks,

-- Anonymous, June 23, 1999

Gordon, you're right that preparation methods are not welcome here. If we got into that it would be hard to find the electrical issues. In fact, there are so many issues to consider it boggles the mind.

The resident engineers of this forum, how many, maybe max. of 6, can only give us their view from their one company. This would give us great information if one person had designed and built every electric generating plant in the country, make that every generating plant in the world and include nuclear plants. Also throw in one person designed every bank system, every refining plant system, every .... See how it grows? It is diversity of systems that limits the usefulness of engineers on this forum.

-- Anonymous, June 23, 1999

Jim Stewart, note the word I used, "outside the PURVIEW" of the forum's engineers. I even made sure that was the word I needed, definition "the range of operation, authority." If I had used "expertise" that would perhaps mean they didn't have the "ability." That is not what I meant. The meaning of the sentence using "purview" means they are not substancially involved in, or basically responsible for, telecommunications. I have no doubt that if they were telecommunications specialist engineers they would be qualified to do the job. It is not ability that is involved, it is area of specialization. Not all doctors can do brain surgery or heart surgery or foot surgery, etc. It does not take away their Dr. title nor does it take away their brains. Now if my presumption is wrong, and all/some/one of our forum engineers do specialize in telecommunications then it would be good if they addressed that issue.

-- Anonymous, June 23, 1999

Jim Stewart, also note that Dan the Power Man said, "WE affectionately call THEM 'commies.'" That means he isn't one. Power Man may be brilliant and a terrific engineer but he isn't a "commie." I see no reason why a telecommunications engineer would post on this forum. In fact, if he/she did, Rick would probably dump him/her. That makes my point one more time - you gotta leave this forum and do multiple researches to determine the availabity/reliability of electricity in 2000 (or later this year, who knows.)

-- Anonymous, June 23, 1999

I take that back - Rick would not dump a telecommunications engineer as long as the word "electricity" was somewhere in his/her post. Rick has told me that before - you gotta have the word "electricity" somewhere. Marcella

-- Anonymous, June 23, 1999

Mike,

With all due respect to your question and statement, I don't believe for one minute that you are serious. And that lack of seriousness is a very troubling thing to me. You approach the challenge to my statement in a typical polly fashion, show me the URLs, show me the....what?, names, serial numbers, etc, etc. If you have been following the many sites and threads available to you then you know that there have been many references to problems ahead by those inside the power industry. Perhaps you choose to ignore these statements, perhaps you just don't believe them, I can't say how your mind works. But if you truly haven't seen many statements along these pessimistic lines then you just are not paying attention and I certainly am not going to try to get you up to speed with only 6 months to go. Marianne, do *you* want to take Mike under your wing and help him to understand that things are not as rosy as he thinks?

-- Anonymous, June 23, 1999

Marcella: Yes, you are correct that I am not a comm engineer, but I have y2k tested comm devices and have seen the results of many more of them. Actually, I manage the commies' y2k efforts. What I've seen is analagous to other power equipment: very little use of date functions, and where dates are used, the devices pass all of our Y2k tests. I'm not trying to pick a fight here, I'm just saying that there are people who can discuss y2k and comm as used by power companies.

Lane Core: I wasn't complete in my reference to "discussions". As you can see above, there has been a lot more than just talk. We've tested several comm devices. At the conferences there is much discussion about testing and test results.

Gordon: Yes, there are only a few folks posting here from "inside" the industry, but I've talked to several dozen other insiders who have the same assessment about Y2k as I do: same types of devices, same types of y2k tests, same test results. And I think Mike Coulter's question is legitimate. Because so very few devices have any problems when tested, when someone like you says "I know of other insiders who are much more pessimistic," you should be willing to provide some kind of back up documentation. Tell us what their concerns are specifically, or perhaps they know of a specific type of device that fails y2k tests. For example, go to www.selinc.com, get to the y2k portion of their web site, and you will see a plethora of information: Y2k overview, how it affects their devices, how to y2k test them, what the test results are, etc. Thousands of these devices are located all over North America, they are definitely mission critical, and they are all Y2k ready.

-- Anonymous, June 23, 1999

I wasn't complete in my reference to "discussions". As you can see above, there has been a lot more than just talk. We've tested several comm devices. At the conferences there is much discussion about testing and test results.

Cool.

-- Anonymous, June 24, 1999