Okay, I raised this question a while back, based on information that had been passed on to me. It has since scrolled off the main topics, but I wanted to repost the last answers from AJ (my thanks to him), and get more replies. Anyone? The original thread is at:

http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=000uU5

AJ's answers (note in particular the second one):

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Hi Ralph, It has been mildly surprising to me how few people have followed up on my posts or asked critical questions of them. The only ones that come to mind are Bonnie's comments and FactFinder's challenges.

In summary my position has been, is and remains, that: 1. there are far too many embedded systems for them all to be remediated 2. some small percentage of embedded systems will fail causing monetary damage 3. some smaller percentage of embedded systems will fail causing bodily injury 4. the combined effect of cascading glitches in automated control systems consisting of many embedded systems networked together will cause much greater problems 5. manufacturers around the world will still be shipping products with known Y2K problems well into 2000

I'm here to elaborate on any of these points, but nobody likes to challenge me, except FactFinder... :-)

I think the simple answer is that I am thinking globally and cross-industry whereas this forum is specifically focused on Electric Utilities. It sounds like everything is hunky-dory in the Electric Utilities now.

--aj

-- A. J. Edgar (ajedgar@centigram.com), June 09, 1999.

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Drew, Here is a more specific answer to your original question.

Yes, you are in the ball park. A line drive actually. :-)

The problem with PLCs and other industrial automation equipment that include time/date functionality is typically with the firmware, kernel /executive and/or application code.

Here is a real honest to goodness example of a popular PLC with a real Y2K bug: Siemens S5/115 PLC: The Siemens executive (Operating System) on these PLC'S simulates an RTC function (time and date) as there is no on-board RTC on this device. When this executive runs through the turn of the century it returns ?? (2 question marks) when reading the date back as it does not recognise a year with a leading 0 (zero). Any device, SCADA System, equipment or MES system reading this date will be confused resulting in reaction which is in certain circumstances a fail safe routine.

It was exactly this type of failure that had caused part of a Texaco oil refinary to shutdown. A data logger didn't recognize the '??' data and failed-safe causing a shutdown.

-- A. J. Edgar (ajedgar@centigram.com), June 17, 1999.

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I hadn't checked this out in a while. There are quite a few new entries. For you curious types, take a look and read the PLC and SCADA cases. Let your imagination dream up a few scenarios. http://www.iee.org.uk/2000risk/Casebook/eg_index.htm

I wonder what type of plant needs a robot to change air filters?

Who would trust their alarm monitoring to Windows'95 and VisualBasic (yikes!) ?

Or this one: http://www.iee.org.uk/2000risk/Casebook/eg-44.htm A manufacture shuts down over the Jan 1st holiday as a precaution and on Monday can't start his assembly lines.

Let's hope this plant isn't manufacturing candles, batteries, or kraft dinner... ;-)

-- A. J. Edgar (ajedgar@centigram.com), June 18, 1999.

-- Anonymous, June 22, 1999

Answers

I noticed a (possibly) significant omission in the IEEE index on Embedded Systems Fault Casebook.

There is no entry for "Refineries." There is one for "Petrochemical," which concludes

Consequences for the SYSTEM System Stops

Consequences of failure to the BUSINESS--Near catastrophic. Limited reliability and operability of plant. Reduced production

Is this encouraging? Is no news good news? Or what?

-- Anonymous, June 24, 1999

Re: Refineries

See IEA, USS, GAO, DJN, NYT: Fear-Mongering, Panic-Baiting Y2K Money Grubbers?

The link to the IEA page seems to be dead now. :-(

See also the follow-up in Y2K Progress Revisited: That Darned Reality Just Keeps Intruding. I now have a link for the NYT article.

-- Anonymous, June 24, 1999