cosmic disconnect in the truest sense of the words

greenspun.com : LUSENET : Electric Utilities and Y2K : One Thread

now this would be funny if it was not so sad. funny that the nrc has 'no clue' about the solar flares anticipated by nasa at the end of the year... just when y2k hits. sad that they are locking their back-up plans to a technology that might not be functioning... right along with everythin else.

TODAY, THE NRC SAYS THINGS ARE DIFFERENT Today, the NRC says they learned from the Three Mile Island accident. Now, things are different. We contacted the NRC's Office of Public Affairs and spoke with Joe Gilliland. Gilliland joined the NRC just one year after the 1979 accident and has seen a world of changes go into place. He says, "We have a well-established emergency information procedure that we use in the agency, and those emergency plans are tested, at least every two years. It's a well-tested procedure, and we require all these utilities to go through it. I personally am very comfortable with what we have now. I've been through a few near-accidents, I've participated in the information flow."

The information flow, of course, was one of the problems at Three Mile Island, and it threatens to be a Y2K problem as well. Without telecommunications working, how will nuclear power plants communicate with emergency officials, the NRC, the plant designers, or the President?

Gilliland explains, "Our backup is that our regional office out of Dallas / Fort Worth will handle it if our communication links are not working out of headquarters." He also explained that the plan involves the use of satellite phone equipment if ground systems are not working.

While Gilliland was very straightforward, polite and did not seem evasive in any way, Y2KNEWSWIRE was surprised to find that he had not been briefed on the solar flare problem. When we asked Gilliland whether the backup satellite communication plan might be compromised by the peak solar flares scheduled to strike near January of 2000, he told us he was not aware of the solar flares and asked whether this had been widely reported. We indicated that, yes, the solar flares were well-documented and that one of the known risks was the potential for damage to communications satellites. Gilliland indicated he would pass the information on to another person in the Public Affairs Office who might know about the subject.

Now, perhaps Gilliland hasn't been briefed on the solar flares, and perhaps it's not his area of expertise. We might be out of line expecting him to know about this topic, but it does seem strange that the NRC's backup communications plan hinges on a technology well-known to be at the peak of its vulnerability precisely during the Y2K rollover and that the NRC's people haven't been thoroughly briefed on this subject.

In fairness, Y2KNEWSWIRE does not know what the odds are that any particular satellite might be damaged by the coming solar flares. It is possible that the chance of such damage occurring is insignificant.

now, i do not know about you but i feel particularly 'comforted' by the fact that he is going to pass this information on. maybe someone should mention the gps rollover due to take place on august 22, 1999.

and i sure don't buy the concept that perhaps this is beyond his area of expertise... *we* know about the solar flares and *we* don't work for the nrc.

_never in human history have so many humans blindly trusted that so many other humans won't screw up._

dr. edward yardeni

-- Anonymous, June 22, 1999

Answers

The NRC "has learned its lesson" ... YEAH RIGHT!!! Has anyone ever wondered why history repeats itself? For the exact same reason that Kindergarten teachers can teach Kindergarten for forty years. The people change. Just as there's always a new crop of naive children for the teacher to mold, there's always - within a generation - a new crop of naive managers and employees to mold the organization. Notice how that's turned around? On the one hand, the naive are molded, on the other hand, "the naive are doing the molding." Unless the fundamental standard operating procedures are significantly altered - and sufficiently anchored - then the "organization" has not changed. Only the players have. When the next crop comes on board, the lessons are lost - and history repeats itself. The vast majority of TMI players are no longer on the field. They're planting daisies - or pushing them up. No, the "NRC" hasn't learned any lessons, and those within the NRC who did learn - are nearly all gone. The NRC hasn't "learned" because information still does not flow unaltered from the trenches to the boardroom. Until THIS changes, nothing changes.

-- Anonymous, June 22, 1999

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