The lights will stay on, and we'll all look like fools!

greenspun.com : LUSENET : Electric Utilities and Y2K : One Thread

In all of my reading of this discussion regarding the grid and the integrity of the electric power system, a number of things strike home:

1. Y2K will break things. But that is nothing new, they are breaking every day. Just that Y2K may break many more than have been broken before.

2. Once you get to this point, it all becomes a question of the attitudes of each of us individually and collectively whether this will be a "failure"

3. This is wasted argument. Who cares whether you call it a failure or a success. The real question is whether the society keeps its collective head regardless what happens. Its not an issue whether the electrical grid holds but whether the psychological grid holds.

4. In this regard, my hat is off to the can-do attitude and optimism of the engineers who tell us they will be ready. Yes, I know that even if they are 100% ready, they will only be 85% ready. And I know that Gary North predicts cascading problems. So what? It's their determination to be ready and to beat this thing that will win the day.

5. Why this need to be right on this issue of whether there will be power failures or not? I suspect the essence of it is our desire for certainty before we start running the risk of looking like Y2K Whackos in front of our friends and neighbors. Everybody knows that if the lights go out, our honor is saved. Hence the interest in this general discussion (and perhaps a very subtle but macabre desire to believe the bad news over the good.) FORGET THE CERTAINTY. THE LIGHTS WILL PROBABLY STAY ON, AND THOSE OF US WHO PREPARE WILL LOOK LIKE DAMN FOOLS. ACCEPT IT. (And understand that if you are right, if there are significant problems, your present anxiety is the price of leadership.)

So let's stop worrying about what the "right answer" is here. Let's learn what we can, make our preparations, and be ready to do whatever we can to turn a potential catastrophe into another triumph of the American Spirit.

-- Anonymous, June 19, 1999

Answers

... the least of my concerns. i could not care less how i am perceived due to my opinion on the y2k issue. at one point in my evolution with this issue that might have occurred to me but now i would believe in fairies and elves if one could wave a magic wand and make this nightmare go away.

1. Y2K will break things. But that is nothing new, they are breaking every day. Just that Y2K may break many more than have been broken before.

and all at the same time.

2. Once you get to this point, it all becomes a question of the attitudes of of each us individually and collectively whether this will be a "failure"

i am not quite sure at what point you have arrived but this problem is not subjective... it is objective. it is either going to happen or it isn't. the collective unconscious is not going to impact the functionality of the electrical grid or the telecom systems but perhaps you are referring to the banking industry.

3. This is wasted argument. Who cares whether you call it a failure or a success.

i disagree. the exchange of information for the purpose of reaching an informed decision is never a waste of time. also, what we call something is not what we should be concerned about... more what we experience as the result of same.

3a.The real question is whether the society keeps its collective head regardless what happens. Its not an issue whether the electrical grid holds but whether the psychological grid holds.

that is why information should be disseminated and people afforded the data to make informed choices based on evaluating real risks. being lulled into a state of complacency by the powers that be or our industry leaders is not conducive to our psychological health nor our physical health for that matter.

4. In this regard, my hat is off to the can-do attitude and optimism of the engineers who tell us they will be ready. Yes, I know that even if they are 100% ready, they will only be 85% ready.

and this isn't pause for concern. btw, do you happen to live near a nuclear power plant?

4a.And I know that Gary North predicts cascading problems. So what? It's their determination to be ready and to beat this thing that will win the day.

let your imagination run wild... try to imagine how many projects, regardless of their nature, failed to achieve success in spite of the enthusiasm and determination of the participants... the olympics come to mind.

5. Why this need to be right on this issue of whether there will be power failures or not?

hasn't anyone told you? our entire infrastrcture is precariously perched upon the electrical grid. i, for one, am inordinately concerned whether or not the grid will hold and the percentage and intensity of the power failures.

5a.I suspect the essence of it is our desire for certainty before we start running the risk of looking like Y2K Whackos in front of our friends and neighbors. Everybody knows that if the lights go out, our honor is saved.

this seems to be important to you. heat, food, light, and water are higher on my list of concerns.

5b.Hence the interest in this general discussion (and perhaps a very subtle but macabre desire to believe the bad news over the good.) FORGET THE CERTAINTY. THE LIGHTS WILL PROBABLY STAY ON, AND THOSE OF US WHO PREPARE WILL LOOK LIKE DAMN FOOLS. ACCEPT IT.

you're kidding... right?

(And understand that if you are right, if there are significant problems, your present anxiety is the price of leadership.)

leadership requires information in order to make informed decisions, based on what you have stated above the information gleaned through active debate is something to be disdained. leadership also requires a fundamental understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of mankind, not the idealistic ramblings of truth, justice and the american way.

we have no supermen to save us... we are on our own.



-- Anonymous, June 19, 1999


Who cares if the Titanic (the boat) sunk or swam, my hats are off to the "CAN-DO" attitude of the engineers who designed it and the "Optimism" of the crew that almost completely missed that iceberg.

Why, if they'd hit it straight on, Everyone on board might have died!

Its a good thing there wasn't some DAMN FOOL running around the deck babbling on and on about how fast the ship was going and the way the ship was constructed and how if just a few rivet heads sheared off the boat could sink. He would have looked like a DAMN FOOL! He could have ruined the voyage for those that survived. Better that everyone maintained their heads and calmly got into the few lifeboats that were there. Sure, some people died. But the ones that lived had the right "attitude" about the failure. For them it was not TEOTWAKI.

oh dear, i went a bit off topic there.. sorry.

anyways- My hat's off to the "CAN DO" attitude of the engineers at ComEd (my electric company)

that "forgot" to inject the stuff that killed the zebra mussel larvae or whatever that kept appearing at the mouth of the main cooling inlet.

After a month of this "CAN-DO" attitude, the zebra mussels got sucked into the inlet tube and grew and then died from heat and clogged the inlet so the Reactor has to get throttled down or shut down so they can go in and clean out the tons of dead zebra mussels.

then in a few weeks they have to do it all over again!

My hat is off to them and their optimism that they could save a few bucks by ignoring some simple maintanence for a month.

Now they have a renewed determination to be ready and BEAT THIS ZEBRA MUSSEL THING. I think they're really serious about it now.

I've stopped worrying about whether ComEd can get its act together for Y2K, they've got bigger problems; ZEBRA MUSSELS.

I mean, if someone told me some ZEBRA MUSSELS could cause a Nuclear Power Plant to shut down , I'd say : "You're a DAMN FOOL, where's your CAN-DO attitude?"

or, as my dear grandmother says:

"Why can't you just wait and see what happens like everyone else?"

Bless her heart.

-- Anonymous, June 19, 1999


I'd much rather be alive to hear people call me a d*** fool than never have the chance to hear the same people tell each other that they should have listened better.

-- Anonymous, June 19, 1999

My hat's off to those 85% effective engineers at Chernobyl. Why those people who died probably died thinking "Well, at least my neighbors don't think I look like some WHACKO!" What they really needed there was some American Spirit so they could triumph instead of ending up with the old Chernobyl necklace.

Here's a saying for you which I think applies:

Prayer won't stop the bear.

You can substitute the following for prayer: John Koskinen 85% effective code remediation SEC 10-Q's full of BS. GAO surveys Contingency Plans out the wazoo Mountains of CIO surveys Triumphant American Spirit

I've said it before and I'll say it again. In heavy industry hubris kills.

-- Anonymous, June 19, 1999


Open your mind, bud. And stop slamming GN.

If you're afraid of looking like a DAMN FOOL, then don't prepare. Simple.

Leave the rest of us alone, and go about your way.

We're all looking for balance and truth. Unfortunately, and according to all of the reporting (again - *balancing*), we find untrusted optimism on the one hand, and flagrant lying on the other.

NRC CHAIRMAN leaves post??? What's that all about?

-- Anonymous, June 20, 1999



While it is admirable to have a great spirit and a can do attitude, I get perturbed with the people who don't realize that psychology can't be substituted for facts. It is a fact, not an idea or attitude, that if the system crashes, 8 million New Yorkers can't survive by eating the squirrels in Central Park. It is a fact that if you are tide to a breathing machine that if the power goes out and you haven't gotten an alternate power source you die. It is a fact that if the steering wheel suppliers for GM can't provide steering wheels, GM can't build cars. It is a fact that if one valve (gate) closes on a sewage line 4 million gallons of sewage go bloosh, all over the place, in just an hour or two. It is the attitude that gets in there and cleans up the mess, if you survive.

-- Anonymous, June 20, 1999

My lights will stay on because I have a generator. Comes in handy ANYTIME there is a power failure.

-- Anonymous, June 20, 1999

buzz off:

So - you've got a generator. How much fuel do you have?

-- Anonymous, June 20, 1999


Six weeks worth.

-- Anonymous, June 21, 1999

"The Y2K Witching Hour

"Like the false bad expectations that have been established for supposed 'trigger dates' (like the 'nines' and fiscal years), false bad expectations are being established for January 1, 2000.

"Yes, you read that right: false bad expectations are being established for January 1, 2000. It seems to me that hordes of individuals and families and companies in the USA are going to breathe a vast sigh of relief on January 4, 2000, if their local utilities and banks and gas stations and phone companies are still open for business. Those who have stockpiled essential goods (for more than the 'politically- correct forecast' of getting ready for a three-day storm) will be laughed at by those who didn't -- and the prepared will be tempted to wonder how they could have been so easily bamboozled by all that Y2K nonsense.

"Not so fast: it should be quite clear now that if the rest of the world is seriously impacted by Y2K failures, then the USA will eventually be seriously impacted, too.

"Am I saying that you shouldn't be happy if you have electricity at 12:01 a.m., January 1, 2000? I'm certainly not saying that. Rejoice! But think beyond the immediate and the obvious, too: the consequences of widespread Y2K failures overseas will eventually be felt at home in the USA.

"Am I saying that there will be widespread failures overseas? Heck, no. I don't have to say it: the US Senate and the Gartner Group and the like have been saying it for months already.

"If, then, there will be a Y2K Witching Hour, it will be the beginning of a period of troubles, not the end of it -- and certainly not the whole of it."

Don't Chase the Y2K Red Herrings

-- Anonymous, June 21, 1999



Goodness, I'm away for a couple of days and there's so much reading to catch up on there's not much time left for anything else. There are some thoughts in this thread, though, that compel me to add my two cents worth, and some which, coincidentally, my husband and I were just discussing this weekend.

He and I are also very grateful for the hard work and dedication put in by all those who are trying their best to prepare their organizations for the Y2K rollover. At the same time, and from the beginning of our preparations, we have not cared a whit whether others considered us crazy for implementing a risk management plan. (After high school, we were fortunate enough to outgrow being influenced by peer pressure when it came to deciding what was right for us.)

I cannot say that we don't care a whit whether we are right or wrong. We do. We want very much to be wrong about our assessment of the overall Y2K failure impact. My husband, after recently learning first hand of another schedule slippage (putting the time table for implementaion into spring 2000) rather sadly said, "I'm a pollyanna wanna-be. I keep looking and looking for good reasons to offset the impacts of what I see happening, but I'm not finding them."

We have both been particularly sensitive to the "can do", "don't be negative", "American ingenuity will triumph" cheerleading that we run across, perhaps because the study of history has always been a serious hobby for us. While we recognize that it IS very important to try to maintain a positive outlook in almost all areas of life, we also know that historically the great triumphs of the human spirit (American or otherwise) have occurred DURING severe difficulties and disasters, not before them. There have been many "potential" problems and catastrophes which should have been, but were not, affected beforehand by any triumph of spirit. The historical pattern for humanity is to deny danger until it's too late to pre-empt it and then be FORCED to rely on spirit and a can-do attitude to make up for blatant shortsightedness.

Hitler could have been stopped before he engulfed Europe. The big bankers/industrialists could have tempered the super charged stock market spree of the late twenties. School additions could have been planned for before the number of students increased to a level where there was no room for them. Social security issues could have been dealt with years ago; the same for the government debt load. And the Year 2000 computer problem could have been taken care of with comparatively little expense years ago if the collective human spirit had had any foresight at all.

These are a but a tiny smattering of the huge legacy of "could haves" and opportunities missed that humanity has perennially left in its wake. Instead, we tend, with hindsight, to congratulate ourselves on our triumph of spirit after we've pulled ourselves out of whatever messes we got ourselves into in the first place. Many millions of people died in World War II -- but we "triumphed". Many people lost everything they had during the depression and others starved to death -- but we "triumphed". The spiritual can-do victories we most herald were victories, but the cost was staggering.

I cannot help but shudder when there is any mention of Y2K which includes a victory of the spirit or of ingenuity, American or otherwise. The only true victory is to pre-empt a potential crisis long before it ever gets to the "problem" stage. When shortsighted stupidity is what engenders an eventual triumph, we may be able to declare ourselves victorious at some point, but it seems to me a pretty hollow thing for us to then pat ourselves on the back about. Even a small level of attendant suffering is too high a price to pay when there could have been no price to pay at all, or a vastly reduced price. All the "little" Y2K disruptions even our government admits will happen are going to be flashing "Stupid" in big neon letters if we've got the eyes to see it.

In my life's experience, humans are absolutely lousy at accomplishing pre-emptive victorys. The Year 2000 problem is just one more example. I take no pleasure whatsoever in the idea of any conceptual triumph of human spirit or good 'ole American ingenuity because in my mind that usually means we've already failed. No matter how much fighting spirit the world shows, it's already lost the real victory it could have had. We just hate to acknowledge that.

When it comes to Y2K, Americans can already class themselves as damn fools. We don't have to wait to see which group -- preparers or non preparers -- gets a duplicate label. If I had to make a prepare/not to prepare decision, though, without any facts to go on except humanity's record thus far, I would surely come down on the side of foresighted preparation for potential problems. The lack of that is one of humankind's greatest weaknesses.

-- Anonymous, June 22, 1999


Bonnie,

I see you are "holding the mirror" for us once again and doing a fine job of it. Regarding your husband's statement "I'm a pollyanna wanna- be......" you can add me to that list. His sentiments are mine as well.

-- Anonymous, June 22, 1999


Bonnie, thanks for your profound reflections.

-- Anonymous, June 22, 1999

and here we have it, more musings from that rarest of all breeds... a thinker.

-- Anonymous, June 22, 1999

I see you are "holding the mirror" for us once again and doing a fine job of it. Regarding your husband's statement "I'm a pollyanna wanna-be......" you can add me to that list. His sentiments are mine as well.

Now, Gordon, that can't be right. Don't you know that everybody who has any doubts whatever that we're really Y2K-OK just wants things to go bad because... because... er... um... well... for some reason or other.

Dismiss the critics as misanthropic misfits. Neat, clean, easy: no thinking required.

-- Anonymous, June 22, 1999



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