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If there are undiscovered Y2K sensitivities in the chips used in the electrical grid systems that can not be overcome by manual methods it could take 6 + months to replace them and restore power.
My microprocessor engineer friends that work for chip companies told me that it takes, on the average 6 months, to create a custom chip and deliver it to the customer in significant quantities. The necessary steps include * design the needed micro-code * pre-production fabrication testing * reworking * testing * developing the new QA procedures * pre-production documentation for manufacturing and testing * final debugging * release to manufacturing * programming the test equipment * First production run and testing * Make modifications as necessary * Deliver units to customer.
The 6 month estimate assumed that all was normal at the engineering & manufacturing facilty : electrical power, communications, all employees on site, all vendors providing necessary support and transport.
But if there is no power or communications at the the engineering facility - then what happens to that normal 6 month schedule ? It is the 17th century again baby !
Recall that last December there was a 10+ hour power outage for the entire San Francisco Bay area. It was NOT Y2K related. It was a simple human error. Somebody forgot to remove some shorting bars when power was reapplied after some scheduled changes. The shorting bars caused significant damage to 6 huge transformers which had to be replaced. Fortunately emergency replacements were located and power was restored after 10 hours.
Manual override procedures were useless. The Bay area was power dead.
Here is the point : It took that power company 10+ hours to restore the power when it was caused by 1 original problem. They knew what the problem was and where it was. But it still took 10 + hours to fix !
Suppose they have a 1000 + near-simultaneous and avalanching problems at unknown locations. And the replacement parts are a MINIMUM of 6 months away. Then what ?
-- Ron Sander (judy_sander@hotmail.com), June 18, 1999.
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This is part and parcel of what pollyannas can not figure out. Cascading problems. The power outage in California was ameliorated because they had access to the repair parts. It still took ten hours. They had to get the parts first. When these problesm occur simultaneously accross the country, the repair parts will not be available. This will spawn even more problems. Eventually, they will grow exponentially and spiral out of control.
We do NOT live within a resilient system. It has the appearance of resilience in the abscence of a Y2K-like situation. Individual and highly isolated problems CAN be taken care of fairly rapidly. But NOT when these problems are cropping up everywhere at the same time.
Paul Milne
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