To all forum lurkers,posters,etc.: I have lurked here for several months and am a newbie to posting an original thread. However, lately, it seems as if the only opinions that are left undiscussed by those who frequent this site is a totally TEOTWAWKI mentality, that all other not so grim possibilities are left out. What about a 3,4 5,6,7,8 scenario? What will like be life post y2k if the poo-poo doesn't hit the fan in the worst possible way? Just wondering if anyone else has been thinking about OTHER than the worst, and the condition of life thereafter?

-- Barb (awaltrip@telepath.com), June 18, 1999

Answers

Barb, you say you've lurked here for several months? Well, have you actually read anything in the last several months of lurking? Seems to me that this forum draws everyone from 10+ (Milnes) to not even a 0 (Pooles) and people in between (Cory at a 7 and me personally at a 4). I'm sure if you really researched you'd come to the same conclusion. Unless of course, you have some links to back up what your saying.

-- (don't@get this. post?), June 18, 1999.

Barb:

Not everyone is a devout doomer here, but we are unquestionably outnumbered. I feel there will be a *lot* of problems, but most of them will be manageable. Some won't, and those that won't may or may not affect you directly. I'm not sure just how you scale an expectation of delays, screwups, shortages, downtime, frustration, inconvenience, long hours for a few and lost jobs for even more. For a while, I think conditions will be annoying, uncomfortable and uncertain. Murphy will have a field day.

However, I expect power to stay up for the most part, and the banking system won't fail, water will remain drinkable in most places. Those who moved to the boonies will find it hasn't improved their lives in most cases, and there really wasn't anything to run away from. We'll have a bumpy ride for a while, and recovery will be slow and take several years in some cases.

And that's what's hard to describe. No y2k problems will be universal, everything will be highly variable. Some railroads will be more efficient than others, some ports and airports better than others, some companies better than others, some government services better than others, very little breaking down completely and very little working entirely correctly either.

I encourage you to prepare for the worst you can, because you might just need it even if few others do, just like you might get sick when those around you don't. Very few bad things that *can* happen actually will happen, but enough will to make life generally unpleasant.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), June 18, 1999.

Unless of course, you have some links to back up what your saying.

Oooooooh, how do you like them apples, Barb? Are you impressed by a challenge from an anonymous poster? Oooooooh.

Anyway, I think you're right. We hear way too much from only 10-ers and 1-ers, usually calling each other names. There's a whole world of ground in between, and some of it ain't pretty.

-- Lane Core Jr. (elcore@sgi.net), June 18, 1999.

Barb:

I'm pretty much a 9, but will grant that there is finitie possibility of a 8 or even a 7. I prepare for the worst case, though, as best I can. I also have contingency plans for the lower cases...and even consider it in my overall preparations.

-- Mad Monk (madmonk@hawaiian.net), June 18, 1999.

Barb,

For me Y2K is a sure 10 because I've already lived it for 2 dozen years. Was great fun. No need to watch tele.

-- Not Again! (Seenit@ww2.com), June 18, 1999.

Barb,

There are many "middle of the road" Y2K'ers, but unfortunately our modern media has conditioned people to want to hear and talk about the most "spectacular" possibilities, even though these are usually the most negative. The result of this mindset of course, is that when you get enough people thinking and talking about something, the "mass consciousness" will actually cause it to occur. Is it any wonder our world is getting out of control?

-- @ (@@@.@), June 18, 1999.

Good question!

I and family are prepared for a 7 but expect a 4-6 locally. In my opinion Y2K is basicaly a discontinuity (not exactly a 100% break) in the flow of information. I expect (hope) that we all get something for the $200 Billion or so invested in remediation by government and industry so I think the USA and most of English-speaking world will avoid a 9-10. Maritime shipping looks like one of the weakest links that will impact our imports and exports (again not a 100% interuption but a significant slowdown).

In my business, sales to heavy manufacturing, I have seen big blast furnaces and coal fired cogeneration power plants run 100% on manual mode. They can continue to run but at reduced production output and lower efficiency like a 20-30% reduction in productivity (output per manhour).

My contacts with local and state officials (Ohio) indicate that Y2K is receiving proper attention. Ohio Emergency Management Agency speaks in detail about "Defense-in-depth" multiple redundant contingency plans.

In my opinion the Y2K impact will be primarily economic as in higher prices for essential goods and lower prices or little demand for luxury/non essential goods.

-- Bill P (porterwn@one.net), June 18, 1999.

Bill, I am also a "middle of the roader". I am curious, though, as to what I should consider myself numerically. You say you are prepared for a 7, but expecting a 4-6 in your area. Can you tell me what is the difference between a 4-6 and a 7? Like, is there a scale to look at, like the old Mercalli scale of earthquake intensity?

-- malcolm drake (jumpoff@echoweb.net), June 18, 1999.

Barb:

Good post. There does seem to be a war between gloom and doomers and pollys. I personally believe it will be a 5. How do I know, the same way every one else knows, it is based on a gut feeling based on experience and future projections. To me it makes absolutely no sense to head for the hills, arm oneself and live off of the land. I just don'nt see it getting that bad. OTOH, if it did get bad enough where people were killing each other, then I think we would all be doomed anyway.

I am preparing enough food and water to last my family for a month. The way I see it Y2K is a very personal decision, the level of preparndness is based on one's perception of how bad it is goinng to be. I just don'nt see the Y2K Fairy removing all knowledge come Dec. 31. There probably will be glitches but I think we will have the will and intelligence to manage them. The LA sewage spill will probably turn out to be not directly Y2K related. However, when you get a bunch of people screwing around with code thier are bound to be screw-ups.

The thing that bothers me is the scaristy of mature discusssion regarding Y2K issues. The forum seems to have split into two opposing camps, the doomers and the pollys who spend most of thier time not discussing issues but in name calling.

-- Watcher5 (anon@anon.com), June 18, 1999.

Barb,

A lot of people on this forum are 'middle-of-the-roaders'. But local outages (Where is local?) can temporarily cause severe problems. Most of us are preparing for what we feel comfortable with. Talking over 'worst-case scenarios', helps me cover bases in my preps that I might not otherwise think about. If you have a better imagination, more power to you! Then, too, a lot of us are not just preparing for 'survival', but to keep our comfort level as close to normal as possible. Life with upset children who do not understand why life is suddenly so different, is not a bed of roses. Why inflict that on yourself if you can avoid it? My idea of camping, for example, is an air-conditioned motor home. The thought of washing then wringing clothes by hand makes me cranky. There is nothing about potential y2k problems that appeals to me. Let me repeat that for those who think everyone who is preparing is eager for it to happen. There is NOTHING about potential y2k problems that appeals to me.

If my lights go out (rural emc power company), I will not have water. If they are our for an extended time, I will not have a lot of things. Preparing alternate methods for heating, cooking and washing clothes is not doomer mentality. While this could happen to me, you could be living your normal life. Your way of life may not change by this, but mine certainly would, if only for a limited duration. If I prepare for the worst case I can imagine, then I certainly have anything less well covered. I think I owe my family that.

-- Dian (bdp@accessunited.com), June 18, 1999.

Barb,

Follow the oil.

-- Carlos (riffraff1@cybertime.net), June 19, 1999.

Thanks for the time and input.

-- Barb (awaltrip@telepath.com), June 19, 1999.

Many middle of the roaders here, but the extremist can yell louder.

-- Goofy J (no@not.foryou), June 19, 1999.

Barb:

You see so many "tens" here because people can't understand how things are going to be fixed or handled very well when the world sees "Hurricane Y2K" or, take your pick: solar, cyber terrorism, world depression/war, religious zealots, our friends like saddam, bin laden, militias, you know the gig, lots of 2000 parties planned.

People like Flint always have great opinions on these matters but for some reason I don't think he lives within a one-hour drive from 10,000,000 people, like I do. The "boonies" sound like just the place to be for me. I wonder what happens if we have a bigg crack in the system in the coming months?

When a lot of people think of y2k they think computer and forget about the state of affairs in the rest of the world. Know how people loot and burn cities when they win a ball game? Watch a few good shows about the animal kingdom and you will know how people can/will be treating you in the event of one of those cracks. Its real easy to "Get It" from there and you will want to deal with anything you face as a ten would.

-- BiGG (supersite@acronet.net), June 19, 1999.

Having given the scale of 0 to 10 lots of thought. It continues to occur to me that in our society and the Global ramifications involved ie. not isolated to one vicinity. For what ever reason my mind cannot conceive a middle road scenario. Either it is an event where very few people are effected directly. (no panic) or if a certain threshold is reached it will instantaneously go to the symbolic 10. I am not a negative person, far from it. I am an objective person and can appreciate just a few of the variables involved. I just know human nature and the combination of a certain threshold of interruptions being reached---lets say a 4,5,6 can or may exacerbate the fear factor enough to take it to a 9 or 10 at least thats the feeling I get. Kind of like when you watch water rising against a levy--- at first there is a trickle (say a 1 or 2) no big deal, then all of a sudden the whole levy goes. No middle of the road. Now Listen, I do not want this to happen-I would hope that goes without saying--but this is what makes it so hard to come to grips with preparations. You know what I mean. (3 days) give me a break we all have at least a weeks worth of cereal to eat, but if you stop and think if the store are empty for say 2weeks. The ramifications of that are staggering because to contemplate just that scenario implies that people that have never gone hungry will now be in that position of fear--I have to stop hear because again all of the infinite variables begin to show up. Respectfully D.B.

-- David Butts (dciinc@aol.com), June 19, 1999.

Barb,

Im one of the middle grounders too, weighing in at a slightly wavering 5... on average. (Was almost going to downgrade my local assessment of the Silicon Valley to a 3 but Ill hold on that now). Lets see what next weeks Y2K talks at the United Nations toss up for consideration...

International Y2K Coordinators Are Mapping Year-End Strategy (United Nations--USIA)

http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id= 000y7g

As Carlos said... watch the global oil supply issues...

IEAs Y2K Oil Supply & Ripple Effects (United Nations Web-site)

http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id= 000y8B

Globally, I suspect simultaneous problems will range between the 1 (no problemo level) to 9 (semi-catastrophic occurrences)... reserving a 10 slot for global thermonuclear war.

Its still a highly interdependent, interconnected world, in so many ways. The U.S. Y2K testing phase going on now is turning up unexpected problems and results... like the Van Nuys sewage spill, the Oregon gas line explosion, Utah chemical spills in the water supply, brownouts in electrical utilities, explosions at Oil Refineries, Peach Bottom nuclear power plant glitch, etc. Which is all well and good... when fixed. But not good when ignored elsewhere in the world.

IF... and thats an if in blazing capital letters... IF we learn the lessons from these Y2K testing glitches and share the how to fix the uncovered problem information... internationally. Somehow, I feel we may not be that organized.

*Sigh*

At any rate, currently, Im expecting a global depression mid-point to late next year, ramping up from a recession, which slowly builds from those unexpected problems affecting the supply chains, during the first 2 to 4 months next year... then ultimately sliding more-and-more into economic impacts rippling everywhere.

Does that mean Im not optimistic that well get through the accumulated oopsies? NO.

Im quite confident that the spirit of determined people... when push-comes-to-shove... will kick in at the local community level--for the most part-- and citizens will roll up their collective sleeves and cope with their local problems. With or without outside Federal government intervention depending upon the severity of the problems and the request for assistance that goes out from a Governors office.

Sadly, I think some will die, that didnt have to, as both direct and indirect results of Y2K glitches.

Many may lose their jobs due to corporate downsizing--and have to figure out new personal income strategies--and there may well be smaller businesses going bankrupt from both a fix-on-failure reliance or shortage repercussions from their own interdependent vendor supply chains. (Their failures can impact the Fortune 500, et. al. too). Cash-flow could be the real kicker for most organizations, of any size.

Expect readjustments. For how long, how wide and how deep is the $64K question... and cant be accurately answered nor prognosticated by anyone... including experts.

Who knows? Is still a universal truth.

The fallacy I see being extrapolated by the bump-in-the-road polly crowd is acting like Y2K will happen in a vacumn. It just aint so.

On top of unknown simultaneous problems locally, state-wide, nationally and internationally... the world still turns and Mother Nature still does her thing.

Its a well known truth that natural disasters such as tornados, hurricanes and flooding--even solar flares--are becoming increasingly intensive AND costly in their direct impact damage. I currently live in California along the West Coast ring-of-fire about 7-10 miles from the San Andreas earthquake fault line. Also, went through the Southern California Northridge quake in 94 about 7 miles from the epicenter. Lived through the L.A. riots. Participated in the SoCal evacuation of a small 2,000 person mountain community due to incoming, out-of-control, raging forest fires on two fronts that ultimately burned over 10,000 acres and that firefighters on the front lines said a miracle happened when a 200 hundred foot-high wall of flame came within 200 yards of the first houses (and the successive propane tanks that heat every home on that mountain) that there was no way they could stop. Then the wind shifted. Thats another story.

Shift Happens.

So, interwoven with Y2K theres the ongoing natural disasters occurring.

Beyond all that, as if it wasnt enough to cope with, I suspect--and BOY does our government pre-anticipate this one--acts of terrorism and cyber-terrorism will peak at an all time high during the January 1, 2000 turn and over the first couple months (see FEMA archives and read the E.O.s on Critical Infrastructure protection). Thats the spooky one, IMHO!

What if your areas electrical grid stays up due to successful Y2K remediation and testing, but goes down, because some true millennialist wackos, do their darndest to take it down? The result is still the same. No power. For how long? A three-day storm? Who knows?

What if the big iron computers in the banking industry or stock market really ARE Y2K ready--domestically, and the important ones internationally--for uninterrupted Year 2000 business, but due to s/w code backdoors created by closet hackers (from all the contracted remediation endeavors here and in foreign countries) monetary chaos ensues? This in NOT a farfetched scenario, BTW. Our government is quite concerned about this one, which is GREAT, but can they stop it? Doubtful.

What if the hate-America idiots trigger HAZMAT (hazardous materials) incidents or biological releases in major urban centers? Along with everything else? This is ALSO a very big concern for the dot gov and dot mil types. Rightly so. It scares the pant off me and Im still an optimist! (Most daze).

The endless possibilities that require serious contingency planning, go on-and-on.

Y2K and all its related stuff just isnt a simple fix-it or not, thing anymore. Thats why the more people, neighborhoods and communities who are prepared for longer time frames than a measly three-day Koskinen storm (personally striving for six months), the better.

Please... try to think outside the Y2K box. Youll likely become more resilliant, IF you take action, by doing so.

Good luck! We all need it.

Diane

-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), June 19, 1999.