Those of you who have read my posts/transcriptions through this forum know that I am a former reporter.

What you may not know is that I am also a Neighborhood Watch block captain who is preparing to make a presentation on Y2k community preparedness at our annual Neighborhood Watch picnic later this month.

Accordingly, it was with great interest that I checked in with Dr. Ed Yardeni's 200 DAY CONFERENCE (6/15/99) today. (Although the actual day I checked in was 6/14/99. Go figure. Maybe they were super-efficient and did it a day in advance. . . )

You can access this site and listen for yourself at:

http://y2kactionday.com/

Frankly, I did not have the time to listen to all participants, although I am familiar with most of them.

I was most interested in Rick Cowles' interchange with Dr. Yardeni, because electricity is the "big one." I listened to that with extreme interest.

Also of interest to me was Gary Beach of CIO Magazine.

Here follows the my raw notes as I would have taken them in a press conference (understand, however, that if I were actually writing this story for broadcast/publication, I would be more precise with the follow up on these notes). Others will most likely elaborate on the following:

With regard to predictions on what may happen to the electric grid, Rick Cowles says we are pretty much in the same state where we were six months ago. We do not have good verifiable data on what we can expect, because most of the good news is self-reported. (Cynical reporter's note: Cowles also stated that his business has expanded to include not only independent verification of remediation efforts in electric utilities, but also other utilities. I presume this to mean natural gas and water. I am being cynical because I was trained to be cynical. However, if Rick Cowles has turned his attention to these other industries, that could be a very good thing. Independent verification is usually a good thing.)

A discussion ensued about how some major utilities are stockpiling and--thankfully--have the capacity to do so.

Yardeni asked of Cowles, "Whats the area of greatest vulnerability?

Cowles does not answer immediately regarding vulnerability, but said that one of the strengths in the system is the interconnectedness of the grid. Power can be routed to problem areas. Same thing with natural gas. However, proper contingency planning must be done in advance. Electric industry is developing and planning for manual workarounds. Regardless, we can expect localized problems.

Rick Cowles biggest issue is the lack of independent auditing and disclosure. He says there are in excess of 3000 electricity generators and providers in the United States. It would be silly to think that all of them will be ready.

Yardeni asked about nuclear power plants. NRC wants them ready in July. NERC has mandated for other utilities to be complete by end of June/early July.

Yardeni said humans often meet deadlines by redefining the problem.

Cowles said the same thing is true in electric industry. NERC is lifting "exceptions" for plants that cant be tested during the Summer, which is the peak season for electricity usage. (Note: As I understand it, this means we need to watch for "exceptions" in subsequent NERC/SEC reports.)

Cowles said the September/October time frame was intended for doing "in-place" systems tests for those that cant be tested during the Summer.

Both Yardeni and Cowles expect general compliance with "exceptions" by deadlines. It's important to note that the electric industry wont make any guarantees in 2000, but they won't make any guarantees tomorrow morning, either.

Yardeni says, "Itll be like a box of chocolates. We wont know what were gonna get."

Gary Beach, the publisher of "CIO Magazine" doesnt think its going to get much better than 50 percent readiness. Hes still uneasy. He says nobody knows.

A new poll of business readiness will be released on June 18, 1999. (A date to remember.)

Beach says KNOWS businesses wont get to 100 percent level by years end. And, he says, Y2K has gone behind a cloud in the public consciousness, replaced by Kosovo.

Beach says we need a Y2k day in the Fall that will focus on contingency planning.

He said no one can test whats going to happen when all these events, converge and hit. He sees that in the eyes of CIOs when he talks to them about this issue.

He said Y2k has now become an awareness and an education kind of thing. He asked, "Wheres the President and Vice President in this debate?"

He said, with regard to disclosure, that CIOs are in a digital rock and a hard place. It's a balancing act between the potential of being hit with lawsuits later (if they say they're ready, and they're not) and facing a decline in stock prices if they say they're not ready.

Yardeni pointed out the case of a recent SEC filing by DuPont, which indicates problems ahead.

Yardeni wanted to know when the lawyers are going to sit down and say "disclose everything."

Beach said he thinks that might happen in September. GPS rollover may have an impact.

Beach said, "I am uncomfortable." He said that CIOs dont know whats going to happen.

Yardeni concluded, We dont know that much more today than we knew a year ago. He added,Every now and then you look at yourself in the mirror and wonder if youre just delusional about the whole thing.

Beach said "There are going to be some catastrophic events around the world."

Yardeni said Hungary, Russia, China are candidates. As are a couple of countries in Europe.

Beach said something about India, and added, "We really need to get an update on where were at. Get this Kosovo thing behind us."

Yardeni said Y2k will make the headlines again in September

The discussion then veered toward the perspective of Chief Financial Officers (CFOS), who tend to say "Everything's o.k.."

Beach offered the perspective that "CFOs are looking at it from a budget program perspective (as in, they're saying that accounting software will be O.K.) rather than a supply chain perspective."

A discussion ensued about past 10qs being edited by lawyers, CIOs, etc., and that the corporate accountants may be lobbying Congress to pass the Y2K legal liability act, etc.

Conclusion by both: "Very interesting times and a very interesting six months ahead."

Just passin' it on. . .

(Pardon my typos if any. I have other fish to fry. . .)

:)

-- FM (vidprof@aol.com), June 14, 1999

Answers

One big typo I noticed after I posted:

"Beach says he KNOWS businesses wont get to 100 percent level by years end. And, he says, Y2K has gone behind a cloud in the public consciousness, replaced by Kosovo."

I left out the pronoun "he."

Sorry. . .

:)

-- FM (vidprof@aol.com), June 14, 1999.

Thanks for taking the time to do this report.

-- Sharon L (sharonl@volcano.net), June 15, 1999.

Thanks so much for posting this, I will check out the url tomorrow. They should have it on real player by then. Thanks Again!!

-- dreamsong (dreamsong@email.com), June 15, 1999.

Another forum thread on this: Yardeni's Latest conference

I also was struck by Beach's description of the body language of those CFOs when questions were asked about editing 10Qs. Many of them lowered their eyes, which is a fairly common "hiding" response. Fascinating.

FM, I'd like to hear your take on the "Senator Bennett" entry. It's Bennett along with Senators Dodd and Smith, with some questions afterwards from reporters. It's quite interesting to hear the solons walk this tightrope between telling people to prepare and minimizing any comments which might cause what they deem to be "panic". A few of the later questions from some of your erstwhile brethren in the media are quite good and really put the Senators on the spot. Dodd sounds at times almost as if he's stuttering from the effort. Recommended.

-- Mac (sneak@lurk.hid), June 15, 1999.

You're welcome, Sharon and Dreamsong.

Mac I'll listen to those as soon as I get a chance, and post my notes. I didn't know there was a Q & A with reporters. That's good. Just out of curiosity, do you know which media organizations were represented?

:)

-- FM (vidprof@aol.com), June 15, 1999.

FM -

I didn't catch any IDs, but it sounds like a Senate press conference of some kind. Some of those "ink-stained wretches" have definitely been doing their homework!

-- Mac (sneak@lurk.hid), June 15, 1999.

Listening to the Gary Beach interview is very sobering.

http://www.y2kactionday.com/audiofiles/yardeni/t200/gbeach.ram

-- Lane Core Jr. (elcore@sgi.net), June 15, 1999.

Help me out here, folks.

When I clicked on Senator Bennett's comments (on the Yardeni 200 day conference), I got his perceptions at 400 days, not 200 days. Nowhere in that thread were any comments from Dodd or questions from reporters.

Seems to be a glitch. Can anyone post the thread for Bennett's 200 day comments?

:)

-- FM (vidprof@aol.com), June 15, 1999.

FM -

Now this is very odd indeed. I just checked and that entry for Bennett has been changed to the old T-400 item. Not sure why.

I feel like I'm in that old movie Gaslight and Charles Boyer is saying, "What is wrong? The lights are fine. Why are you so upset?"

-- Mac (sneak@lurk.hid), June 16, 1999.

And when I checked today, there is no entry for Senator Bennett at T-200 all. None.

First they had a current entry, but not specifically from Senator Bennett. Then they had an old (T-400) entry from Senator Bennett in its place. Now: nothing.

I had e-mailed the Webmaster for Yardeni's site last week, so I guess I'll just have to wait for him/her/it to clue me in on all this to-ing and fro-ing...

-- Mac (sneak@lurk.hid), June 21, 1999.