In memory of "Norm"

WARNING: THIS POST MAY BE EDITED FOR CONTENT OR LANGUAGE

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/tc/story.html?s=v/nm/19990614/tc/yk_test_1.html

Y2K Test Approaches - 200 Days And Counting By Neil Winton, Science and Technology Correspondent

LONDON (Reuters) - We will soon know if the millennium computer bug is a disaster or an incidental blip as the clocks hit midnight.

Monday there will be 200 days left to worry about whether computers will crash after December 31, 1999 -- a potential nightmare for the industrialized world.

Experts say that many of the chilling scenarios predicted when the millennium computer bug first grabbed the public's attention are unlikely to happen.

They don't expect planes to fall from the sky and they don't think nuclear missiles will be accidentally activated.

But they don't discount some unpleasantness, and governments and medium sized corporations in Germany, France and China have been singled out as being the most likely to be affected.

U.S. information technology researcher Gartner Group famously said more than two years ago that it would cost between $300 billion and $600 billion to cure the bug.

The millennium computer problem stems from the once common programmer practice of using only two digits for the year in dates, like 97 for 1997. There are fears 2000 will confuse computers and microchips embedded in machines, causing them to produce flawed data or crash.

BIG CORPORATIONS ON TRACK FOR Y2K SURVIVAL

Big corporations across the world have been spending millions of dollars to fix their computers.

According to Gartner, the results have been impressive.

``The vast majority of large organizations which control the vast amount of services and goods in developed economies are there or thereabouts,'' said Gartner analyst Andy Kyte.

``The fact that they can't guarantee 100 percent compliance doesn't mean they are going to collapse. Most large organizations have treated the matter seriously and are largely ready,'' said Kyte.

``The Armageddon scenarios being painted even two years ago are not going to come to pass,'' he said.

GOVERNMENT PREPARATIONS CAUSE FOR CONCERN

But Kyte warned that governments, particularly those with large social security administrations, were the most vulnerable.

He pinpointed central and regional governments in France and Germany as causing concern.

``We remain very concerned about Germany in both the public and private sector. The best German organizations are up there with the best in Y2K preparation, but far too many are way behind norms for their industry sector,'' said Kyte.

If the public sector payment systems fail, the impact on the recipients will be swift.

In January a major computer breakdown at social security offices in Marseilles, France, paralyzed payments. In a few days frustrated benefit claimants smashed up three post offices before riot police stepped in.

Stephanie Moore, director of the Giga Information Group in Norwell, Massachusetts, agrees with Kyte, however, that considerable progress has been made in fixing the bug.

MOST CHINA SOFTWARE SEEN REMAINING IN JEOPARDY

But Moore worries about Japanese and German banks, and France and China.

``Ninety percent of software in China is pirated. The software vendors won't help them upgrade because it's illegal. Anyone relying on China for a supply chain is likely to have a negative impact,'' Moore said.

``The most stunning thing about France is that lots of IT (information technology) managers are aware of the problem and are making an effort to fix it, but executives with all the power and money do not buy into the Y2K problem; they don't want to fund it,'' Moore said.

Moore's main worry, like Kyte, centers on governments.

``Governments don't have the smarts or the money. Companies can spend lots of money on overtime and bonuses, governments can't and they don't have the brain power or the resources to incentivise,'' Moore said.

HEAD-FOR-HILLS PUNDITS STICK WITH PREDICTIONS

The Internet is still a haven for material predicting a disaster.

Professor Gary North (www.garynorth.com) says computer crashes will rock the industrialized world.

North says that no power generation on earth is safe from infection. This, coupled with a failing telephone infrastructure, could spell havoc for weeks or even months in the industrialized world.

North's theory is accompanied by a survival check list which includes advice on wood stoves, water and food. Of the stock market, he says ``Get out of it. Now.'' And he recommends acquiring gold coins because banks and automated teller machines will crash.

North has moved his family to Northwest Arkansas.

But Gartner's Kyte says: ``We are increasingly confident about the continued availability of infrastructure services at the century boundary and the high availability of electricity, gas, water and telecommunications -- more optimistic than a year ago.''

``We are more pessimistic about failures starting in the third quarter this year in public sector and mid-sized companies. Big-bang disruption has almost receded off the horizon, replaced by a cloud of reduced efficiency in many industrial sectors over an extended period of time.''

-- Mr. Decker (kcdecker@worldnet.att.net), June 14, 1999

Answers

"WARNING: THIS POST MAY BE EDITED FOR CONTENT OR LANGUAGE"

Entirely unnecessary and provocative.

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), June 14, 1999.

WARNING: THIS POST MAY ALSO BE EDITED FOR CONTENT OR LANGUAGE

Excellent article Mr. Decker, but don't you know? The CODE IS BROKEN! It CAN"T BE, etc, etc....

-- Y2K Pro (2@641.com), June 14, 1999.

I heard Y2K was solved over the weekend. Anybody want some cheap Franco American ravioli? (Can I say ravioli?)

-- GeeGee (GeeGee@madtown.com), June 14, 1999.

And I thought you were going to give us some "good" news.

And this is as optimistic as you can find?????? Widespread social and econmic breakdown in China, France, and Germany - is "good" news? You've just predicted 3 of the top seven economies world-wide are going to be in trouble......

You're scaring me...

-- Robert A. Cook, PE (Kennesaw, GA) (cook.r@csaatl.com), June 14, 1999.

Yo Decker...I would highly suggest you contact a Rocky Mountain Forest Ranger and seek assistance in locating a "cave"! I'd be happy to map out the one MY ancestors used, but there's precious little room left, you see, Decker.....it's going to be full of couragious patriots. -putz-

-- Will continue (farming@home.com), June 14, 1999.

Yeah, that North is really a genius! Hee Hee hahahah, ROTFLMAO! Pardon my filthy mouth in that acronym.

GN said to get out of the market back in November. That's when I fell for his baloney, and had I not listened to him, I would have had enough money, if I sold today, to have paid for all my preps and that of two of my neighbors, including a generator for each.

That BFI's predictions are about as accurate crystal ball gazing, his religion is from the dark ages, and he's made a fortune off of fools who listen to him.

-- gilda (jess@listbot.com), June 14, 1999.

"Widespread social and econmic breakdown in China, France, and Germany - is "good" news?" It's amazing how worrying aloud about economic problems can be translated into "breakdown." You give a fine lesson, Mr. Cook, on the art of spin.

Good Will Punting, if anyone needs to a find a hole and crawl in....

Regards,

-- Mr. Decker (kcdecker@worldnet.att.net), June 14, 1999.

If my 'back of the envelope' calculations are anywhere near correct, North is raking in at least a million a year. Probably much more, but it depends on how certain contracts are worded.

I would not be surprised unless someone claimed the figure was over 3.5 or 4 million a year. It could easily reach that.

-- Paul Davis (davisp1953@yahoo.com), June 14, 1999.

"Good Will Punting, if anyone needs to find a hole and crawl in....."

You're getting better Decker.....in the "humor" department anyway. HAHAHAHAHA You still need alot of work in the "intuitive thinking" department, though! Get started...it's *JUNE 1999*!

-- Will continue (farming@home.com), June 14, 1999.

No, Decker, you are slipping. The beauty of the NORM machine was that it just POSTED, but NEVER commented. We will let you go this time, but try to just follow the simple rules, OK? (Remember: NORM = Non-thinking Output Response Machine)

-- King of Spain (madrid@aol.com), June 14, 1999.

Paul Davis, you know we would just LOVE to see your "back of the envelope" calculations on how much Gary North is making on Y2K. If fact, it deserves a separate thread, don't you think?

Go ahead, Pauly-anna, lets see yet another example of your brilliant analyses.

-- King of Spain (madrid@aol.com), June 14, 1999.

Hey - I'm quoting the facts from your article and your supposed European experts, not mine:

<<``We remain very concerned about Germany in both the public and private sector. The best German organizations are up there with the best in Y2K preparation, but far too many are way behind norms for their industry sector,'' said Kyte.

If the public sector payment systems fail, the impact on the recipients will be swift.

In January a major computer breakdown at social security offices in Marseilles, France, paralyzed payments. In a few days frustrated benefit claimants smashed up three post offices before riot police stepped in. >>

"Riots" from people in France sound like social disruptions to me. "Concerned" about Germany's government progress, and predicting major financial troubles in China....this is good news?

-- Robert A. Cook, PE (Kennesaw, GA) (cook.r@csaatl.com), June 14, 1999.

Actually, Decker might be displaying *some* level of concern over the international markets and failed or ignored remediations....but he has his face stuffed into a map of the Rocky Mountain region right about now! Give him a few!

-- Will continue (farming@home.com), June 14, 1999.

WRONG Decker and Y2K Pro a.k.a. Norm and Vinnie.

WARNING: THIS POST WILL NOT BE EDITED FOR CONTENT OR LANGUAGE OR DELETED OR CENSORED!!

Posts that WILL BE deleted are the obvious ones:

 Profane/obscene posts
 Personal information--address, phone, ISP, etc.--posted by troll
 Using someone elses handle (including a regular poster, Sysop or Moderator)
 Useless dribble a.k.a. al-d, etc.

Stay tuned. Were working on simple GUIDELINES not RULES or CENSORSHIP.

-- One--Of Many--TBY2K Forum Moderators (y2ktimebomb2000@yahoo.com), June 14, 1999.

Mr. Cook,

First you said, "Widespread social and econmic breakdown in China, France, and Germany" Now you are down to "disruptions." I know this is a fine point of language (for a professional engineer), but a riot involving three post offices is not the same as a "social breakdown" in an entire country. Economic problems are not the same as economic breakdown...

Main Entry: break7down Pronunciation: 'brAk-"daun Function: noun Date: 1832 1 : the action or result of breaking down: as a : a failure to function b : failure to progress or have effect : DISINTEGRATION c : a physical, mental, or nervous collapse d : the process of decomposing e : division into categories : CLASSIFICATION; also : an account analyzed into categories 2 : a fast shuffling dance; also : music for such a dance (Webter's Online Dictionary)

Now, I don't think you are suggesting the economy of France will engage in a fast shuffling dance. I am left to believe you think it will disintegrate, collapse, etc. The posted article does not support your characterization. Period.

It does show that you have a considerable bias when considering Y2K- related news reports.

Regards,

-- Mr. Decker (kcdecker@worldnet.att.net), June 14, 1999.

Predicting societal level events is indeed difficult from small events. If you would feel safer downtown amidst large number of strangers who are acting very disruptive because they have lost lights, water, and government checks, apartment heat and their check cashing dealers, please go there next Jan. You may find you have lost police protection, fire protection, fire fighting ability, and communications.

I am extrapolating from this report of riot police being required in a major city in Fance to stop riots and destruction after "welfare" payments were stopped (in a 'first-world" country!) by a single computer failure. Note too, this was in a big city, not a "rural" environment (supposedly here, the only places threatened according to the dear Mr. K.) and the riot police were required when checks were only _delayed_ by three days.

Here, cities had major riots (excuse me, "large civil disruptions involving large unruly crowds who were actively and deliberately destroying other people's property and threatening their lives) after sporting teams won championships, after an unpopular criminal verdict was announced, after a armored car overturned spilling money, and after these typical city residents "lsot" (actually, were merely faced with) having to pay for part of their drugs at the local government hospital. (Arresting several dozen protestors in the middle of a city council meeting, dragging them out in handcuffs, is not "civil disturbances"?)

We have already seen welfare checks get issued 'wrong" (overpaid the last weekend in March in one city); and the threatened residents (who faced having to "budget" the extra money through 4 extra-days in April) demanded they be able to keep the extra money! Or they threatened "action in the streets..." In South America, where people are supposedly "used" to infrastructure failures and where governmetn help is less pervasive, and so therefore where the people should not get "uptight" about loosing services and rioting, we have seen several cases fo city-wide disrutpions occurrign when water natural gas, and checks were not delivered.

I am, as admitted, projecting known disruptions (riots) that have occurred AS SOON AS people got fed up after government money was stopped, or as soon as these people had an excuse to riot, into the scenarios of American cities being threatened with sevices stopping.

And the American cities have the oldest infrastructure, the first infrastructure to be automated, the slowest to begin repairs, to farthest behind in remediation, and the most threatened people - because they have NO choice about leaving the city, no recourse or alternative methods if services are lost, and no control over recovering the lost services. From FEMA's own definitions, these three conditions are what begins panic.

-- Robert A. Cook, PE (Kennesaw, GA) (cook.r@csaatl.com), June 14, 1999.

gilda:

Two months prior to the crash of '29, Joseph Kennedy became convinced that the Stock Market was ready to crash, and got out. He was afterwards considered to be a financial genius.

Nobody knows for sure what is going to happen next and for what reason. But based on the shakey ground as we approach 2000, you can just as easily say "Whew, I'm glad I'm out of the market and my money is no longer at such high risk" rather than lamenting over lost (electronic) dollars had you stayed in.

Remember: It is better to be two months early than one day late, a la Joseph Kennedy.

-- King of Spain (madrid@aol.com), June 14, 1999.

Mr. Cook,

You dodge the issue... again. Why not just admit that your original response was an overstatement? You fixed on the reaction of some French welfare recipients and extrapolated that reaction into a general social and economic breakdown. Let me suggest again, Mr. Cook, that your biased view on Y2K clearly seems to distort your perception of a rather balanced article.

Why not comment on:

"'The Armageddon scenarios being painted even two years ago are not going to come to pass,' he said."

OR

"Stephanie Moore, director of the Giga Information Group in Norwell, Massachusetts, agrees with Kyte, however, that considerable progress has been made in fixing the bug."

Is your area of engineering expertise filtration... by any chance?

Regards,

-- Mr. Decker (kcdecker@worldnet.att.net), June 14, 1999.

Yes - I've got to filter out software errors from the bits and pieces sent by our programmers - and I'm very good at it. (Sound of one hand patting me on the back....8<)

Once the programsthemselves work, I'm responsible for filtering out design and manufactoring and specification errors, interferences and connection errors, missing data and out-of-specification data for the nuclear, chemical, chemical and process piping, instrumentation and control, support and hvac and trays and cable, piping and equipment designs that are sent. I'm also very good at this. (Sound of second hand patting me on the back....8<)

So, yes, I saw those. And discounted them - because they are meaningless exaggerations from a government administrator desperately trying to paint a rosy picture to people won't don't know any better. Yes, he can (and the FAA) can say anything they want - I can chose to ignore blather, or listen to it. I have found that ignoring blather from the government - when the government has (in the past) tried to lie and conceal things, is far safer.

Am I incorrect in ignoring meaningless "feel good" blather? Maybe, maybe not. Am I safer (more cautious) in ignoring meeningless "feel good" blather? Absolutely yes.

Because even the "best" news from their blather reveals very troubling "real" data - that is not contradicted by their blather. In other words, their blather becomes revealing, because they are not able technically to hide the stunningly bad news that they are so desparate to conceal from the masses.

My only sorry is: finding the "gaping holes" in their cover story is so simple, so easy to do.

I wish it were harder. It would imply the real problems are more trivial. Instead, the real problems are all the more obvious - like a woman trying to hide an elephant under her skirts, some things are simply too gross to to remain out of site.

-- Robert A. Cook, PE (Kennesaw, GA) (cook.r@csaatl.com), June 14, 1999.

"So, yes, I saw those. And discounted them - because they are meaningless exaggerations from a government administrator desperately trying to paint a rosy picture to people won't don't know any better."

What government agency does the Gartner Group fall under?

"Am I incorrect in ignoring meaningless "feel good" blather? Maybe, maybe not. Am I safer (more cautious) in ignoring meeningless "feel good" blather? Absolutely yes."

So, anything positive the government says about Y2K is "blather." There's an open mind in action.

"Because even the "best" news from their blather reveals very troubling "real" data - that is not contradicted by their blather. In other words, their blather becomes revealing, because they are not able technically to hide the stunningly bad news that they are so desparate to conceal from the masses."

How about publishing some facts that you... and the rest of America (except for the chosen few) know. FACTS, Mr. Cook, not your armchair guesses. What will absolutely not function as of January 1st? You're an engineer... start with the mechanical devices, and do include manufacturer's names and model numbers. We can move to software next week.

Regards,

-- Mr. Decker (kcdecker@worldnet.att.net), June 14, 1999.

Mr. Decker....allow me to give you a fact. You are a well educated idiot. You wouldn't know a *fact* if it crawled up your posterior orifice.

-- Will continue (farming@home.com), June 14, 1999.

Face it Decker -- you're flailing on this thread...even Flint hasn't come to your defense.

-- a (a@a.a), June 14, 1999.

Good Will Punting and the little letter,

Will, the difference between us is that I am educated.

And "a," flailing is exactly what I am doing... flailing the lack of critical thinking and factual analysis. Why don't you work on that list of "noncompliant" devices? Contribute something for the greater good.

Regards,

-- Mr. Decker (kcdecker@worldnet.att.net), June 14, 1999.

HOOHOHOHAHAHA. Deckhand...you're getting flustered, is that "dew" forming on your brow? QUICK...don't look now, but I see a *fact* right behind you! BWWWAAAAAHAHA

-- Will continue (farming@home.com), June 14, 1999.

Got a steelmill in Australia, a couple of GM plants in the US and Canada, a few hundred FAA ATC computers and displays, and many hundred thousand controllers and sensors in pulp and paper mills scattered thorugh the US, Canada, Western Europe, and South America that need replacing. Or they won't run next year.

Subscribe to EPRI's database for a more complete list.

Your nit-picking dear sir - your job, as registered Polly, is to tell me exactly what will break early next year, so I can treach people exactly what to prepare for, and how long to a period of disruptions to expect.

Once you have provided that data, then we can begin getting people ready. Without these nasty uncertainities of excess prep's, or worse, not enough prep's.

Until then, I must adopt a more safe course - The general US citizen must be ready for irregular shortages and outages lasting unpredictable times occurring in unpredictable area affecting unpredictable services and systems, with an overall unknown impact on the economy and society.

-- Robert A. Cook, PE (Kennesaw, GA) (cook.r@csaatl.com), June 15, 1999.