I used to think that as 2000 approached people would tend to become more panicky and worried .As we get closer to that DAY I now would not be surprised if apathy will really be the growing mood.Believing that an incredible mess may loom ahead is scary at a distance but as this great unknown approaches I feel most will be unable to come to grips with their anxiety.This will be fine if we just hit a speed bump but if the majority of programmers are correct the public will be overwhelmed by the chaos and difficulies that emerge.Do any sense this scenario?

-- Dennis Chornomaz (Dchorno@aol.com), June 13, 1999

Answers

Every time I think about the big economic and financial picture, especially factoring in Y2K, a scene forms in my mind of a car, accelerating like crazy, toward the edge of a very tall cliff. One second its materialistic Nirvana, the next, Wile E. Coyote time!

-- Jeremiah Jetson (laterthan@uthink.y2k), June 13, 1999.

Nope,

I've thought for a long time now that there will BE no panic, the spin meisters are doing a perfect job, plenty of distractions - all of which will make the reality of the singularity we will hit head on far far worse than it need be.

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), June 13, 1999.

I also expect a "lack of coming to grips" until 2000. But is it anxiety people can't grip or just the information that they can't grip?

-- Gus (y2kk@usa.net), June 13, 1999.

Wheather or not, y2k is a non event or TEOTWAWKI, I think by the last of Oct. there will be so much media attention forcused on Y2k that there will be mass panic. It will all be negative since most news is, how much good news do you hear.

There probably will be martial law beginning in Dec. They will have to implement it before the 1st.. I base all this on gut feeling and watching the way the wind blows.

One thing all the regulars on the forum can do to help the newbies that will be coming here for information is to compile a list of the most important items needed for survival. We have had time to prepare, these folks will not have that luxury.

We need to also offer the newbies Hope. Remember the stages we each went thru when becoming Aware.

-- Linda A. (adahi@muhlon.com), June 13, 1999.

Good thread linda. I feel that discussing the complexed social issues dealing with preparing kids and dgi family members along with best experiences with getting y2k preps and options ready are the greatest service we can offer to the late comers to this site.

Where the last bit of caring community left. Our federal,state and local govts are missing in action on this issue,our media and most of the churches have failed to mobilize effectively to prepare for what will be the most devestaing crisis to face the world in over 50 years. They are asleep at the wheel,they are brain dead or something. I dont understand why we havent seen a massive contingency plan mobilize at this late date. They know how bad it is. They have the inside track how difficult it is to reengineer decades worth of custom built software built for large platforms. They Knew they were late when they started 4 years ago for most of them. I sure the world's intel agencies have briefed the leaders on how serious y2k is or you wouldnt be seeing leaked versions of senario schemes from the naval war college and mitre on the net. There are good hard working Govt Intel officials that care very much that s_it will hit the fan and are doing there best to give us a clear picture of what they know is comming down the pike. Our job for our families and nation's sake is to keep cool and provide the best quality preperations we can muster. The time is now for all hands on deck. If we work diligently now we may be able to salvage enough to make recovery tolerable.

-- y2k aware mike (y2k aware mike @ conservation . com), June 13, 1999.

It's still more comfortable to belive that the chambers really are showers.

-- Carlos (riffraff1@cybertime.net), June 13, 1999.

Linda:

For the media to focus so much on y2k, they need a story. This means something new, not just a repeat of old news. And what kind of story are they likely to find? Well, the government will be promising all will be well, they'll report that. Companies will be announcing lots and lots of successful tests and 'substantial compliance' and don't- worry-be-happy, and they'll report that.

Of course, if there are some celebrity failures, those will be reported as well. But so far, the predicted spike dates have all been nonevent fizzles, so we really don't have a whole lot of reason to believe they'll suddenly start becoming newsworthy. In fact, if the media cover the spike dates, this becomes yet another story of the y2k false alarm.

60 minutes already covered y2k twice, and that's about as far- reaching as the media can get. And those weren't happyface reports either. No response. Beyond those, the media cover what *did* happen, and only the hardcore doompapers (y2kNewsWire, etc.) make an attempt to cover what *might* happen. Which they've been doing. No response. I just don't see any celebrity failure happening, and it would take some big ones to have any noticeable effect.

Dennis:

Where does this "majority of programmers" come from? Survey results? Nearly worthless. I just don't see much anxiety, apart from those who have blown the problems out of proportion in their own minds. And their preparations should alleviate at least some of that anxiety.

People aren't bad at looking into the future as it's known to affect their own lives and personal plans. Y2K comes out of left field, has no immediate impact (yet), and I think people categorize it with things to worry about later, along with pollution, global warming, and the prospect of another ice age.

If y2k causes big immediate problems, *then* they'll notice. If it causes more economic inefficiency, a market downturn, rising unemployment, bearable inconveniences, I don't think it will get direct blame even then. Just as we get a few people here who see y2k in every normal little problem of everyday life, so we'll get a whole lot of people who continue to deny that y2k had anything to do with problems later. And obviously, anyone who wishes to do so can interpret anything at all, any way they want. This forum is crammed to the gills with stellar examples.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), June 13, 1999.

Dennis,

I think the general public will be calm about Y2K until if and when the financial and business community moves to protect itself. If the stock market is impacted, I wouldn't be surprised to see the general public start prepping soon after that.

-- Linkmeister (link@librarian.edu), June 13, 1999.

I consider myself to be a "stellar" example of an individual who prefers to interpret my information realistically as opposed to hopefully. How about you Mister Flint?

-- Will continue (farming@home.com), June 13, 1999.

I agree with many concerning the panic factor. The only way I see it happening well before the finish line, would have to be seeing trouble on wall street. Being hit in the pocket book tends to catch the attention of the masses. Not much else appears to.

-- Will continue (farming@home.com), June 13, 1999.

As 2000 approaches greater apathy: ...just watching CNN is a great primer for apathy. If we can enter 1-1-2000 without getting Yeltsinized, my compassion or apathy will be there come hell or high water!

-- Feller (feller@wanna.help), June 14, 1999.

Sort of gives a new meaning to the term, "toast".

-- Will continue (farming@home.com), June 14, 1999.

If you do not own a computer, if you do not work in Corporate America (around "an IT Department")and have never experienced your entire day being put on hold while the "computer guy" tries to "fix it", if you have never been entangled in a communications fit of epilepsy then you have no idea how to assimilate the information being thrown at you about "when the rollover happens...two digits instead of four...blah blah blah" Many Americans like this. Doctors and Nurses are inundated enough with insurance companies and doing their job of treating people, truck drivers hardly have a moment in between driving and taking naps, for instance, to ever notice much of anything except their next cup of coffee. There are many sectors of society which would at this late stage never come to grips in time to prepare(supposing major problems). Major PR mistake.

-- NSmith (nitnat3@aol.com), June 14, 1999.

Folks, in case you missed it, go back and read Flint's post. What you see is a relly good example of middle of ther roadism, something WE NEED to cultivate, if we are to have an impact on the average person. On the newly GI or almost-GI.

thanks for the example.

Chuck

-- Chuck, a night driver (rienzoo@en.com), June 14, 1999.

Good point, NSmith.

Last time I heard...from the smallest microprocessor to the biggest mainframe, the average American depends on over 200 computers per day to provide food, water, fuel, light, money, health, news, entertainment, and much more, even if they don't own a PC or work with a computer.

-- Tim (pixmo@pixelquest.com), June 14, 1999.

"Folks, in case you missed it, go back and read Flint's post. What you see is a relly good example of middle of ther roadism, something WE NEED to cultivate, if we are to have an impact on the average person. On the newly GI or almost-GI. thanks for the example.

Chuck"

Are you sure about this Chuck?

Just 100 working days to go - we should all be sounding alarm bells and giving newbies and ditherers alike a proverbial kick up the methaphorical arse.

I think Mr. Milne and Mr. north would agree.

Time to ignore the likes of Flint, yep he's personally gonna be ok with guns and preps but he doesn't give that impression to those that don't know his personal background ... same with the ffrugal lliving ddecker .. .. ..

Time to talk turkey Chuck, time has almost run out pal...

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), June 14, 1999.

Andy...I couldn't agree MORE. We're approaching the two minute warning here. The "middle ground" is about to shrink into "yada, yada land". There is no time left to be selective, careful and delicate with any of the "fresh and hopeful" minds that are appearing. As Andy has pointed out...there is too little time for any further *pondering*. This has forced me (and hopefully many others) to take a stand of extreme urgency. If we hope to offer "newbies" any hope of a chance to be realisticly ready and prepared.....the middle-ground- soft-sell MUST cease. Few are willing to wear the "hat" of an extremist or Doomer. Don't know if any of you have noticed this, but, I have a hat on! (grin). I'm not wearing it to win the "best looking hat award". The time is NEAR. No time to "coddle". Take your stands people and defend them to the bitter end.

-- Will continue (farming@home.com), June 14, 1999.

Flint babbled:

Where does this "majority of programmers" come from? Survey results? Nearly worthless.

Gee Flint...how about the "majority of programmers" on this forum?

-- a (a@a.a), June 14, 1999.

'a':

Excellent point. This forum self-selects for rabid pessimists. A few programmers occasionally show up, point out that things aren't nearly so bad, get shouted down, shrug their shoulders and leave. Why bother? Most programmers have better things to do with their time than cast pearls before swine anyway. It's just not worth the trouble for most of them.

I suggest you or Dennis wander over to comp.lang.cobol and try to stir up those complacent, clueless people. There, you'll find yourself surrounded by the *real* majority of programmers. Report back what they think, OK?

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), June 14, 1999.