Subject:	Oil: Fuggedaboudit
Date:	1999/06/11
Author:	fedinfo <fedinfo@halifax.com>
	Posting History

From DCI (June 7)     With most foreign countries woefully behind on Y2K compliance, concern is rising over the effect on the nations oil supply come Jan. 1, 2000.   Most of the apprehension has revolved around the readiness of foreign oil suppliers. The United States imports a full 56 percent of its total oil requirement -- approximately 10.4 million barrels per day. And according to a Senate special report released in March, three of the top five U.S. oil suppliers -- Venezuela, Saudi Arabia and Nigeria -- are up to 18 months behind in preparing for the millennium bug. Little is known about other suppliers, and there is concern that infrastructure problems in some countries, such as electric power or telecommunications shutdowns, could disrupt oil supplies.   A systems failure caused by the Y2K bug could prove especially disastrous for the oil industry, as disruptions could occur anywhere along the supply chain -- from oilfields and refineries, to shipping, docking or unloading. Even if crude oil supplies were only mildly affected, U.S gasoline prices could rise sharply.   ''It wouldnt take more than a two percent cut in output -- 1.5 million bpd -- to dramatically alter oil market fundamentals and lead to a significant price increase,'' says Peter Bogin of Paris-based Cambridge Energy Research Associates. . . .     ===   The rest of the article is happy face crap about the Oil Industry optimism.   The bottom line is that most of our Oil will be cut off.   No administrative, do nothing, powerless 'task forces' will change that.   One of the very funniest things they mention is our strategic Oil reserves. Again, meaningless.   When all of our major suppliers are shut off, the price of Oil skyrockets instantly. The economic fallout of that will do irreparable damage to the economy at a time when ALL other sectors will, likewise, be having irreparable damage done to them for other reasons.   I know that Pollyannas just can not seem to put it all together in their tiny little minds.     http://year2000.dci.com/Articles/9906072.htm -- Paul Milne If you live within five miles of a 7-11, you're toast. Sent via Deja.com http://www.deja.com/ Share what you know. Learn what you don't.

-- a (a@a.a), June 11, 1999

Answers

get them bicycles tuned up.

-- (catt@zianet.com), June 11, 1999.

What happens to these countries that are way behind after 1/1/2000? Do they get further behind? Stay on track with a scheduled deadline? Just how far back does will it push these countries?

-- y2k dave (xsdaa111@hotmail.com), June 11, 1999.

Well, let's assemble what we can of the big picture here, anyway:

First, if some or all of the world's major oil suppliers can't supply oil, this will have serious global economic consequences. No denying this.

So how can we tell if this will happen? What evidence do we really have?

1) Some people are expressing "concerns", "apprehensions", and saying "little is known." (by whom?) Certainly these concerns are very real, in light of the importance of global oil supply.

2) According to Senate testimony, three of the five countries from which the US gets oil imports are way behind in their remediation. Now, what does it really mean to say that a country is behind? Does this necessarily imply that all organizations within that country are equally behind?

This is clearly an important question. If the US government is behind, can we conclude that (for example) Texaco is in exactly the same condition as the Department of Health? Every mention I've seen of a country being behind, is referring to the status of that country's government services, rather than the status of each private industry within the borders of that country.

As an example, the company I work for has a plant in Thailand. I know that our Thai plant has completed all remediation and testing. It may be the case that "Thailand" is 18-24 months behind, but this has nothing whatever to do with our operation there.

3) You might think that to find the status of the oil operations in these countries, you could ask the people who actually own and operate these facilities. Unfortunately, you can't ask them because when you do, they report very positively.

So here we have the big picture. Those who worry without knowledge are factual. Those who misapply estimates about foreign government services to foreign private industries are factual. Those who actually *have* the necessary information are *not* factual, because their reports are positive. The big picture can only be assembled by dismissing everyone who knows the necessary information, and accepting the worries of those who don't as 'facts.'

To present this big picture, notice that these uninformed concerns are quoted in all available detail. Notice that *everything else* is NOT presented, instead being dismissed in a single summary sentence as "happy face" nonsense. This method prevents the uninformed from acccidentally becoming misinformed. We wouldn't want that.

Orwell's Ministry of Truth lives!

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), June 11, 1999.

"To present this big picture, notice that these uninformed concerns are quoted in all available detail. Notice that *everything else* is NOT presented, instead being dismissed in a single summary sentence as "happy face" nonsense. This method prevents the uninformed from acccidentally becoming misinformed. We wouldn't want that. "

Of course, us "doomers" have a "spin". Just about anything I have read has a "spin".

Please continue posting factual (ignoring the "spin") articles, both PRO and CON.

-- Anonymous99 (Anonymous99@Anonymous99.xxx), June 11, 1999.

Well, here's something that's happening in "these countries" that you may not find on the WWW - I looked under Reuters, nothing... under khaleej times, nothing... but I did type the article out, and cut-n-pasted. It appeared in the June 9th edition of the Khaleej times, page 2 of the pink business section.

''''''''""""""""

"BAHRAIN BANKS READY FOR Y2K"

MANAMA - Leading banks and financial firms in Bahrain said yesterday they have completed preparations to cope with the year 2000 "Y2K" computer problems ahead of a deadline set by the Bahrain Monetary Agency (BMA).

The BMA, Bahrain's central bank, earlier this year warned banks and financial institutions they had to be prepared to deal with the problem by June 30, 1999. "The core systems, which are essential to the banking functions of our bank, are already Y2K compliant" Haya Abu Zeid, Sr. Vice President Corporate Communications at Bahrain Middle East Bank said. "The satellite system will be compliant by the end of June. The new system has been functionin for a while", she told Reuters.

{\{ snipped - fluff background on Y2K - \}\}

An official at the Arab world's largest bank, Arab Banking Corp., said his bank had already finished testing its new system. "We have declared our critical banking application as compliant in December 1998,", the official said.

Bank of Bahrain and Kuwait said it was 98% compliant with Y2K while the National Bank of Bahrain, the largest commercial bank in the island, said its 2000 compliance project was nearing completion.

Bahrain's central bank said in February it had upgraded all computer progammes at Bahrain's ministries and other government institutions to deal with Y2K. It said it was seeking to ensure that all financial institutions reach the required levels of compliance by the middle of tis year. Bahrain is the region's main financial and banking hub, with more than 100 banks and financial institutions.

Bahrain Telecommunications Company said it had allocated six million dinars ($16 million) to tackle the Y2K bug. It said its Y2K programme was in its final stage of implementation and testing in various operations areas --- Reuters.

"""""""""""& quot;"""""

I guess you could probably find it if you looked hard enough - although a trip to the Bahrain Tribune page brought me this story instead for June 9th. Maybe I'm getting my dates mixed up. In any case, there you have it.

 

BBatelco plan aims to tackle Y2K ----- A BUDGET of BD6 million has been allocated by Batelco to tackle the Y2K problem, according to the Batelco Millennium Co-ordinator, Dhiya Abdullah Al Shurougi.He said: “Batelco has a huge programme to tackle the Y2K problem which started in 1996 with each department working on its own to address the millennium problem. Since March last year, however, a co-ordination programme was launched to cover all aspects of Batelco, and I was appointed as the millennium co-ordinator to have a successful programme that takes us across the year 2000 boundary. (link)

Ahlan wa sahlan,

-- Morgan (morgan96@netscape.net), June 11, 1999.