Objective, Quantifiable Good News- Panic Will Be the Problem

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This from DCI. It seems there are no problems after all. Of course, "no one really knows what's going to happen." And there are still "legitimate concerns" about SMEs and state and local governments. And countries outside the US.

All we have to worry about is "self fulfilling prophecies" caused by "stockpiling" which will inevitably lead to "shortages."

And panic. Don't forget about panic. No, no, NO- DON'T PANIC.

But otherwise the news is good. I hope you are all relieved.



Wednesday, June 09, 1999

Objective, quantifiable test results are turning up for Y2K tests at major financial firms, energy producers and government computer systems. The results arent pretty -- for doomsayers that is.

Y2K Panic Predicted to be Worse than Actual Problems

Even with a steady stream of positive news being reported from American companies and government Y2K tests, officials fear the fallout from public panic will be far worse than any actual computer problems.

The only constant in all of this is no one really knows what is going to happen when we cross that date threshold, Bob Cohen, an analyst with the Information Technology Association of America told Reuters recently.

The most legitimate concerns are for bugs buried in small to medium-sized companies, county or municipal governments, and countries outside the United States. On the home front -- at least as far as big business, the federal government and the main infrastructure are concerned -- things look good.

The greatest fear among Y2K experts is not computer turmoil, but a self-fulfilling prophecy scenario, where stockpiling provokes exactly the shortages people fear from Y2K glitches.

But in terms of actual computer glitches, the news so far is good.

A rash of recent Y2K tests suggest the U.S. power, securities, telecommunications, and air transport sectors are all in pretty good shape, Reuters recently reported.

To wit:

 Extensive Y2K tests by the Securities Industry Association turned up Y2K related bugs only 0.02 percent of the time. The six-week test simulated the execution of 850 mock trades involving 260,000 transactions for the period of Dec. 29, 1999 to Jan. 3, 2000. All the problems were quickly repaired, says Donald D. Kittell, executive vice president of the association.

 Minneapolis-based Piper Jaffray recently announced that nearly 800 test transactions simulating the trading cycle -- from order entry to settlement -- have been run successfully, without any Y2K-related problems. The rest covered six major product groups -- equities, options, corporate bonds, municipal bonds, unit investment trusts and mutual funds.

 The nonprofit Arlington, Va.-based National Rural Electric Cooperative Association has just reported that more than 80 percent of electric cooperatives nationwide are on target for mid-1999 Y2K readiness, and report no problems with resources to fix the Millennium bug.

 In a seconding report, the same electric cooperative told the U.S. Department of Energy that millennium-related date problems in 82 percent of the electric utility industry will be tested and fixed by June 30, 1999. The remaining 18 percent reported that work to keep the lights on would be complete on or before December 31, 1999. In the key government state of Virginia, the electric utility, Virginia Power, has been working on its Y2K solution since 1993, spending close to $40 million. The company expects no outages.

 Canada is also prepared. A wide-ranging survey by the official Canadian government agency, Statistics Canada, shows that of 1,600 companies with more than 250 employees, 99.5 percent are ready to handle the critical date change. Half of all respondents said work would be completed by the end of July.

 The Nuclear Regulatory Commission says that an audit of 12 U.S. nuclear plants showed the facilities on schedule to address their potential Year 2000 computer problems and meet the industrys target date for readiness of July 1. No problems were found at the plants that will interfere with the ability of their computers to control key safety systems starting next year, the agency concludes, particularly since most commercial reactors have protection systems that do not rely on computer dates, and are not vulnerable to the bug.

 The U.S. Army has announced that even though its chemical weapons incinerator at Utahs Tooele Army Depot has passed all Y2K tests, the plant will not be in operation when the calendar changes over to the new millennium.

 In March, U.S. Customs announced successful testing of all cargo release and entry summary transmissions, along with tariff, quota and entry summary queries for the dates of 12/31/99, 01/01/00, 02/29/00, 03/01/00, and 01/01/01.

Some people are starting to get the message: A March survey by Gallup and the National Science Foundation found only 21 percent of Americans expected major problems in 2000, down from 34 percent at the end of 1998.

) Copyright 1999 by DCI (978) 470-3880 All event names are trademarks of DCI or its clients. Comments? webmaster@dci.com

-- Lee (lplapin@hotmail.com), June 10, 1999


Am I the only one who finds it interesting that groups such as DCI, Gartner Group, etc. are publicly and collectively screaming "NO PROBLEM! Other than panic..."

These same management consulting groups made literally wheelbarrows full of money as Y2k alarmists from 1996 through 1998, DCI through their Y2k seminars (with Dejager in tow), at $1,000 plus per attendee, and Gartner through their corporate management consulting subscription services. And now all of a sudden they are pulling a 180 on us? Sounds like "image damage control" to me.

-- Dan Webster (dan_webster@flashmail.com), June 10, 1999.

see ing that i,m gonna get spooned? forked, to-nite, i,d like to respond to this^ post,,ever hear of turncoats??

-- al-d. (catt@zianet.com), June 10, 1999.

Well, good. That means I won't have any Y2K-related problems, as I am insured against a panic. What a relief. Praise the Lord.

BTW, al-d, a spooning doesn't hurt as bad as the term might suggest. Craig'll be gentle with ya............

-- lisa (lisa@well.now), June 10, 1999.

I sure am glad that everything is fixed. I remember the earlier reports about the lost code, impossibility of fixing embedded systems which could not be tested without shutting down the system, no standards for testing, no confirmation by an outside party that the tests conducted were valid, the fact that systems tested independently may not operate as part of a system, the Jo Ann effect, the inability to fix the FMIS system to process allmost all Federal payments, the problems with the FAA plane control systems, the IRS problems, etc. etc. etc. People now believe that the problems are fixed and have stopped preparing. H_ll they have not yet even established a standard date format day_ _ month _ _ and year _ _ _ _ or is it month_ _ day _ _ year _ _ _ _ ? Would former Presidents Truman, Eisenhower or Reagan have perpetrated this kind of a fraud on the American people? I think not. What will the President do in February 2000 when the chickens come home to roost? Will he claim that the Republician career civil servants working for the government lied to him and said everything was O K? I would not be surprised. Is there a credibility problem here? If the problems are really fixed in December 1999, will anyone believe the government? Even Moe and Shep understand what is going on. Do You?

-- Curly (Curly@ccc.dumb), June 10, 1999.


Thanks for the post.


-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), June 10, 1999.

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