USA Today Survey

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Survey: 45% of Y2K experts worried By M.J. Zuckerman, USA TODAY WASHINGTON - With little more than six months to go, nearly half the experts grappling with the Y2K computer problem remain deeply concerned, according to a unique survey being released Thursday. "About 45% think it's going to be a bump in the road, and about 45% think it's going to have significant impact," says Bruce Webster, author of the survey of 337 professionals fixing or tracking the computer glitch. "And about 10% think it's going to be the end of the world as we know it." The experts are more pessimistic than the public at large. USA TODAY polls in March found 65% expected minor problems and 12% expected no problems. Webster is co-chair of the Washington D.C. Year 2000 Group, an organization of about 2,000 consultants, executives, lawyers and others. Areas in which the experts agreed: marked optimism about U.S. society's ability to cope and marked pessimism about the survival of essential services or infrastructure such as transportation and utilities. But White House "Y2K czar" John Koskinen takes issue with polls and surveys. " No one can tell you with any certainty what the end of the year is going to look like because so much work is still under way." The Year 2000 bug arises from programming shortcuts that could cause computer systems to fail after Dec. 31, 1999. The survey, which can be found at www.wdcy2k.org, shows deep differences: The economy: 38% expect a 20% loss in stocks and recovery by 2001; 45% expect a mild six-month recession with 6% unemployment. Business: 35% predict it will be "jolted a bit" with January "Y2K holidays" to make fixes; 28% see "major manufacturing disruptions." Utilities and infrastructure: 40% predict at least "short-lived failures" up to seven days; 42% expect scattered supply and utility problems lasting at least two weeks. Government: 19% predict one state government will run into "serious Y2K problems"; 30% expect "at least one major government agency," such as the IRS, will fail. Koskinen says, "The basic infrastructure is going to hold. There are going to be glitches lasting hours. But, for example, we don't see any indication that there will be regional brownouts or blackouts lasting two or three days." And he expects the IRS "to be declared Y2K ready in several days." Here is the link for those who wish to view the article:

http://www.usatoday.com/news/digest/nd1.htm

Maybe there is hope for awareness yet! Diane M.

-- Diane (
prepare@highlandtraders.com), June 10, 1999

Answers

If this survey is based soley on what will happen in the United States it's missing one key ingrediant... the rest of the world!

-- (billthecat@doomsday.com), June 10, 1999.

What's wrong with this picture...?

Computer experts say: "45% think it's going to have significant impact ... about 10% think it's going to be the end of the world as we know it..."

Koskinen says: "... There are going to be glitches lasting hours. But, for example, we don't see any indication that there will be regional brownouts or blackouts lasting two or three days."

Ask yourself THIS question: WHO IS MORE QUALIFIED TO ASSESS Y2K?

...And he (Koskinen) expects the IRS "to be declared Y2K ready in several days."

Excuse me a moment (I beg license from Paul Milne)...

BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

There, I feel SO much better now... Don't you?

-- Dennis (djolson@pressenter.com), June 10, 1999.


Yes, Kosky the head guy who said, "I didn't own a computer until I got this job."

-- Jim the Window Washer (Rational@man.com), June 10, 1999.

Gee, the people who make their money off Y2K want us to keep worrying about it. There's a big surprise.

-- cd (artful@dodger.com), June 10, 1999.

cd: The people who make their money from the status quo want people to keep not worrying about it. Is that a big surprise?

-- Gus (y2kk@usa.net), June 10, 1999.


One of the tennents of Total Quality Management (TQM) is that you listen to the people actually doing the job. Sounds like not too many are listening to the IT professionals.

-- Mad Monk (madmonk@hawaiian.net), June 10, 1999.

Did anyone click through to the originator of the survey? ( http://www.wdcy2k.org/survey/ ) It's from February? And just being released now. Things have changed a bit since then, making (IMHO) this whole thing worthless.

-- Online2Much (ready_for_y2k@mindspring.com), June 11, 1999.

Yes, things have changed since February, many things. Among the many things that have changed are such things as schedules. Some schedules have been met, some have been missed.

Yes, many Y2K projects have completed since February. Many will be completed later this year. And many will make progress, but will not complete in time. All of that would seem both obvious and debatable, both now and in February.

The opinions of those surveyed in or prior to February were opinions about ongoing activities and estimates of probabilities of successful completion of then yet to be completed projects. Most of those projects probably are further along than then, but if, on average, they are not 40% of the remainder further along, then they have lost ground to the calendar.

Jerry

-- Jerry B (skeptic76@erols.com), June 11, 1999.


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