overextended

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it appears that we are over extended in the northeast. i understand that they are running at peak load due to the inordinately high temperatures and the extraordinary use of air conditioning but if they are streched to capacity now, when we are aware of the 'heavy load' that may occur each summer, what will happen if we lose some of the bigger generating plants at y2k?

text from article below:

If the region loses just one generator,utilities will have to cut power in some areas if people don't conserve, said Northeast Utilities spokeswoman Deborah Beauchamp.

end of text

i most certainly would not want my power cut in the dead of the winter due to the lack of adequate generation.

i understand that the different areas share load but here is what i do not understand. if other areas of the country are not experiencing the hot weather of the northeast why can't they pick up some of the load?

i interpreted something cl or factfinder posted at one point, perhaps my interpretation was incorrect, to mean that the load could be shared by other plants in other areas. perhaps it is more complex than i envisioned it to be.

are there geographic constraints, are the other plants maxed out, or is demand just too heavy?

i feel that the engineers that post to euy2k are sincere when they say their plants are under control... but there are so many plants and they are not all created equal. there are some that are not going to make it to the other side. what percentage of the big producers must stay up to carry the entire grid? or put another way what percentage of the total generating capability can we afford to lose and still supply electricity to all homes in the u.s.?

NEW YORK (AP) - Temperatures rose toward record highs again Tuesday >in the East, overpowering antiperspirants and straining electric >utilities. With the official start of summer two weeks away, the season arrived early from the Mississippi River to the Atlantic Ocean as highs climbed into the 90s on Monday. Tuesday, the temperature in New York's Central Park was already 88 by 11 a.m. Air conditioners were cranked up to full blast and the biggest supplier of electricity in Connecticut, Northeast Utilities, warned that the demand has taxed the New England power grid. If the region loses just one generator, utilities will have to cut power in some areas if people don't conserve, said Northeast Utilities spokeswoman Deborah Beauchamp.

http://www.infobeat.com/stories/cgi/story.cgi?id=2559848988-002

-- Anonymous, June 10, 1999

Answers

We went through a similar scenario in the Midwest last year when temperatures were higher than expected and several generating plants were out of service for one reason or another. In this situation, the ability to meet peak demands depends on 1) the availability of surplus generating capacity outside the region, or "interconnect" (ours is called MAIN in Illinois); and 2) the availability of transmission line capacity to import the power. In general, 2) is a more serious constraint than 1).

If you want to know more, there are several useful Dick Mills articles in the "Powerful Prognostications" section of the Westergaard Year 2000 site (www.y2ktimebomb.com). There are also NERC annual reports, available on their web site, that address adequacy of generation and transmission capacity for the various regions (these are not y2k-specific).

Fortunately, winter peaks are much lower than summer ones, so there should be substantial excess generating capacity available on January 1. Most utility contingency plans include having more generators online than normal this winter, so that the load of any generator that trips offline from a y2k problem can be quickly picked up by a generator that is already spinning (hence, this is sometimes called the "spinning reserve").

The summer of 2000 may be interesting if any plants are still offline from unrepaired y2k bugs. There is a Dick Mills article on the Westergaard site that discusses this scenario. I believe it's called "worse than blackouts, power shortages". But since it was written, I believe Dick has become more optimistic.

-- Anonymous, June 10, 1999


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