I've read diffreing opinions here about weather we'll hear about any problem caused by the July fiscal rollover. Could it be that since we were only dealing with one state in April, that there is a much better chance of problems (and of problems being reported) now that we will be dealing with so many states and systems. Would like to hear some thights on this. And folks....please be nice and no name calling!

-- Preparing (Central@Ohio.com), June 09, 1999

Answers

In Canada we rolled over in april. It was a total non event. Some folks may have had problems but nothing I heard about. Revenue Canada is still sending checks and asking for money. Things never change eh?

-- Brian (imager@home.com), June 09, 1999.

Preparing,

My guess right now is that until systems that affect manufacturing or distribution encounter dates in 2000, we'll hear little or no news about any problems that may occur. Canada and Britain entered their fiscal year 2000 in April, but we didn't hear about any problems. Overall world awareness of Y2K, though, for whatever reason, seemed to take quite a jump in April.

The fiscal year issue is about accounting and bookkeeping. Until, for example, a company orders a part in late 1999 that has an arrival date in 2000 (distribution), we won't be hearing much about glitches. Businesses and governments may notice problems internally in accounting software and grow a bit nervous, but don't expect the general public to start hitting the hardware and grocery stores in large numbers because of July 1st.

And even with accounting software, it's possible in some cases to put a temporary "bandage" on a system by changing the end date of fiscal 2000 from June 30, 2000 to December 31, 1999.

My guess is that until near the end of this year, government and businesses will be much more concerned about Y2K than the general public. I don't know whether or not there will be a stock market downturn and bank runs this year, but if there are, I wouldn't be surprised to see the market have problems first.

-- Linkmeister (link@librarian.edu), June 09, 1999.

Either Gartner or Cap Gemini has predicted that the rate of incidence of y2K-related problems will increase sharply starting July 1, and then increase greatly against starting October 1, corresponding to the increased incidence of 6-month and 3-month lookaheads. Doesn't mean we will hear about very many of them, but it increases the likelihood that we will hear soemthing. This may be in addition to the state fiscal year rollover issues.

-- Brooks (brooksbie@hotmail.com), June 09, 1999.

Here's what one of your esteemed guru's said in 1998. How much more wrong could he have been...

"On January 1, 1999 they will experience many more, and it will be much more difficult to sweep them under the rug. On April 1, 1999 we will all watch anxiously as the governments of Japan and Canada, as well as the state of New York, begin their 1999-2000 fiscal year; at that moment, the speculation about Y2K will end, and we will have tangible evidence of whether governmental computer systems work or not."-- Ed Yourdon

-- Y2K Pro (2@641.com), June 09, 1999.

Y2K Pro,

Ed Yourdon has missed every time. He played his cards well. Gotta give him credit for that. Sigh..........

-- Buddy (BeenHad@thisplace.com), June 09, 1999.

I think the standard views hold here. If there are a lot of problems in July, it proves y2k will be very bad. If there aren't any, it also proves y2k will be very bad.

Spike dates, like completion deadlines, just seem to keep getting postponed. We can only hope this will still be happening a year from now.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), June 09, 1999.

Be careful what you ask for you might get it...problems will happen soon enough, get yourself and family ready.

-- br14 (br14@bout.done), June 09, 1999.

I've always wondered why people expected the bottom of the world to drop out one April 1, June 1, July 1...

Problems in accounting software, etc. can be worked around by fudging dates in 99. After all, it isn't 2000 yet but eventually this wont be possible. Furthermore, if problems currently exist (which several articles from real news sources suggest is happening) then the problems would compound themselves over time making it more and more difficult to maintain normal business operations and continuity. The bottom would not drop out of a business right away. It would happen over time.

I don't even expect that businesses will fold up and call it quits right away in 2000 if TSHTF. If failures occur they will happen over time.

My wife is a CPA who works in a Y2k ready firm. They have spent a large sum upgrading all their systems and are well ahead of their competition. Interestingly, my wife specializes in audits and from her point of view there just isn't a lot of work being done out there to upgrade PC systems known to be non-compliant which will suffer when 00 rolls around.

Mike =====================================================

-- Michael Taylor (mtdesign3@aol.com), June 09, 1999.

The Jo Anne Effect is not expected to cause problems that will shut down corporations overnight. It is, however, expected to cause enough small difficulties to cause companies to recognize the Y2k threat and to speed up their Y2k remediation efforts.

http://www.computerpro.com/~phystad/jae.html

-- Linkmeister (link@librarian.edu), June 10, 1999.

There's an interesting article about the JAE at the Washington Post at:

http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=000tns

-- Linkmeister (link@librarian.edu), June 10, 1999.

Brooks,

Here's an article about the GartnerGroup report you mentioned:

http://www2.startribune.com/stOnLine/cgi- bin/article?thisStory=75682445

[snip]

In a recent speech in San Diego, Lou Marcoccio, another research director of Gartner's Y2K practice, said the causes will be forecasting software that looks six months into the future, the beginning of new fiscal years for many corporations and some "date- related anomalies in software code."

The number of Y2K failures will increase further in October as forecasting software that looks three months ahead runs up against the Jan. 1, 2000, date and still more companies begin new fiscal years, Marcoccio said.

In Gartner's view, 25 percent of Y2K computer failures will occur in 1999, 55 percent will occur in 2000 and 15 percent will occur in 2001. The other 5 percent occurred before 1999.

[snip]

-- Linkmeister (link@librarian.edu), June 10, 1999.

Also see the thread...

http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=000wgU

"For the record: Your July 1st predictions, please"

-- Linkmeister (link@librarian.edu), June 26, 1999.