What the Experts think for Junegreenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread
I was hoping for some really low numbers on the scale. Not so.
-- Linda A. (firstname.lastname@example.org), June 09, 1999
-- regular (email@example.com), June 09, 1999.
I hear cpr and Zvegintzov have contracted Mad Capitalist Disease. Any truth to those rumors?
-- Elsie (firstname.lastname@example.org), June 09, 1999.
It is nice to see that everyone is so positive in their responses. One thing that was missing is whether they are directing their assesments at the earth in general or at North America. US, Canada, England(ect) are the furthest twords completion. Many in my circle are predicting that the impact of y2k on our lives is growing less and less each day. Sure, my power may go on and off or the phone might have difficulty completing a call but I will survive. I have been through hurricanes and ice storms that just destroy any hope of getting power back in the same month.
It would be easy to take up the most extreme side because who can doubt that you have not attempted to fix what is around you. As for me and my company, we will be able to keep the products flowing here in the US. Our manufacturing systems are ready. As for the payrole and checks being able to be deposited in the onsite ATM, who knows. I can work for a while without a paycheck as long as our patients remain healthy. It is my job, I can't run for the hills, someone has to be here to clean up the mess(if it happens).
The event shall be a 2 impact.
-- Ned P Zimmer (email@example.com), June 09, 1999.
Ned: Hopefully you're right. However, just to clear up two of your misunderstandings,
A. The average opinion of Russ Kelly's experts this month has again become more negative, not positive. The average predicted severity is now >7.
B. Don't be fooled by the difference between restoring a physical (lines and poles) versus a virtual (software/firmware) infrastructure. Power can be restored after a hurricane as soon as the linemen have strung new wire; usually within days. Many software problems, on the other hand, can take weeks, months or years to resolve.
-- a (firstname.lastname@example.org), June 09, 1999.
Kelly brought in some ringers that is why the total is more negative. He was getting too many non-responses from the doom side and it shmucked up the numbers for fear-pumping. so he got hold of a few suckers to stack the deck with.
why is it called the "experts" site? to many of those listed have no technology backround [north comes to mind]. are historians and psychologists able to comment properly on why to kay?
I think Russ fooled the cybercommunity with his page.
-- No Kelly Fan (email@example.com), June 09, 1999.
North is no y2k expert? How many other sites on the web have a database of over 20,000 y2k documents? North may be THE expert on y2k.
-- Bee Ware (firstname.lastname@example.org), June 09, 1999.
Errrrrrrr. Huricanes don't happen to often in the winter.
-- FLAME AWAY (BLehman202@aol.com), June 09, 1999.
Collecting 100s of books on electrical engineering does not make one competant to design power, commo systems, nor integrated circuits, etc. Same goes for Y2K, yes North may be able to converse on general Y2k topics but (in my opinion) would be in serious trouble if asked to provide in-depth analysis of a particular industry or infrastructure. Takes years to gain the knowledge or experience that allows one to make good calls on troubleshooting or analysing complicated systems. How can one detect the BS spewed by a particular PR Hack (with any real confidence) if they have never worked/studied in that industry or field?
-- wholst (email@example.com), June 09, 1999.
There are no experts. Some people are more informed and have done more research. As for those with a technology backround, look at this forum. We have a bunch of people in the 20-40 year range that can't agree. I respect all educated opinions. <:)=
-- Sysman (firstname.lastname@example.org), June 09, 1999.
Also be sure to read the individual comments by each person...
...to see if their line of reasoning makes sense to you or not.
-- Linkmeister (email@example.com), June 09, 1999.
I don't think the group average means much. However, it is very significant to me that there was no particular sharp decrease in concern as a result of the barrage of happy face reports this spring. Remember that time? Some of us wondering if we were losing it and maybe things really would be a lot better than we had thought? The lack of fall in the "expert" ratings helped calm me down and keep me focused on prepping, but more quietly than I had been.
-- Brooks (firstname.lastname@example.org), June 09, 1999.
"Collecting 100s of books on electrical engineering does not make one competant to design power, commo systems, nor integrated circuits, etc."
No, but studying them daily for several years does. I think they call it a "college degree".
-- a (email@example.com), June 09, 1999.
Book learning is great, and necessary for an education. But you would probably hit a plateau well below competence as a programmer by reading programming books, regardless of how assiduously you studied them. Programming (and engineering) are like riding a bicycle or playing the piano -- the skills you can develop that way are pretty strictly limited. You should know this.
Combine a lack of hands-on learning with a bizarre religious fanaticism, apply this combination to a wealth of ambiguous material about a future event, and you won't get much accuracy. As North's track record (and Milne's) proves over and over.
But if you really did learn to program without touching a computer, this might well explain your position. You probably think all programmers are like you.
-- Flint (firstname.lastname@example.org), June 09, 1999.
On the other hand, I wouldn't be surprised if many of us here were more informed about Y2K than the average member of Congress.
-- On (email@example.com), June 10, 1999.
"On the other hand, I wouldn't be surprised if many of us here were more informed about Y2K than the average member of Congress."
If anybody asks for a working definition of the saying, "damnation via faint praise", I nominate the above.
-- Ken Seger (firstname.lastname@example.org), June 10, 1999.