What if Y2K problems evolve into a Milne scale 10? What will you do, then?

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As I was driving out to Washington, Virginia to check out the park where we hope to have the second Northern Virginia Board Meeting, I wondered about the "what ifs" (I'm sure you all do) including the smallest possibility that Y2K problems evolve into a Mad Max kind of world. While several regulars seem to have prepared themselves and theirs for some failures, it seems that their preparations will only serve them well if things don't go Mad Max. In other words, their private preparations seem to require that "Y2K" doesn't go beyond a great depression. Yet, if global and local failures take us past the miseries of a great depression (if there are long ranging failures), does it still make sense to prep up for 5 or more years without building a fortified community?

If you don't build the fortifications now and you don't know who will be with you, do you really expect to survive as long as one year in a Mad Max world? Do you really think that if it gets so bad that you will be shooting neighbors, the avon lady, etc., that you can hold out against others? Can you control-organize the friends and relatives that joined you... so they don't make you and yours vulnerable to the threats that may come in a Mad Max world? What is the critical point when personal preparations are really just storage and treasure for the stronger, more ruthless people that may come your way? Of course, I don't doubt that people like Arlin can reduce the odds against him and his.

There's a lot of talk about personally preparing for the worst (and I think this is needed information for the newbies), but there isn't much evaluation of what kind of community-organizing preparations and fortifications are required for the worst. I also find it strange that hard core regulars aren't getting together to build such communities. Obviously, it is more difficult to do this since we regulars do not form a cult or anything close to a religious group (as Decker and others have suggested). Despite the fact that we regulars are all very independent and different people, I continue to wonder why there aren't even contingency plans for coming together if we are bugging out of cities and suburbs.

Sincerely, Stan Faryna

-- Stan Faryna (info@giglobal.com), June 07, 1999

Answers

Good question. Requires tremendous trust, based on existing relationship, which takes time to develop. Might still happen in some cases between now and rollover. Can't be strategized on a public forum.

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), June 07, 1999.

Big Dog,

Good points: trust and relationship. I hope this means we all will be having many more get togethers (across the country) as the count down continues. Beyond the prudence to not discuss actual contingencies, would a broad discussion of general community strategies be imprudent?

Sincerely, Stan Faryna

-- Stan Faryna (info@giglobal.com), June 07, 1999.


If it is a 10 then for the first few weeks or months we may well be fighting off thieves. But it won't take long for most of them to be gone...by summer we'll be needing every able bodied person to work together and a whole new ethic of co-operation will evolve. People will like one another and be grateful for the others' survival.

-- Sand Mueller (smueller@azalea.net), June 07, 1999.

Most can't prep for that now, due to fear of being stimatized as survivalists and militiamen/women.

-- Ct Vronsky (vronsky@anna.com), June 07, 1999.

Stan and Big Dog, you are absolutely right, it takes time to cultivate trust and relationships. The "bug out if it gets too bad" approach is better than nothing, but obviously does not really provide on those key points.

Moving to a rural location, getting to know your neighbors, gently starting to talk about Y2K when the subject comes up (and you would be amazed at how many people here in the boonies of NW Arkansas are talking about it) is the prudent place to begin true Y2K preparation, IMHO.

-- Jack (jsprat@eld.net), June 07, 1999.


If it gets worse than a 10 (mad max world)....who wants to live there? Not me. I love life and this earth but lets face it.... I have a better home to go to in heaven. If mad max knocks on my door then I will deal with him then.

Bulldog

-- bulldog (sniffin@around.com), June 07, 1999.


Interesting concept to mull over. So lets brainstorm this and see how it might play out.

First you have the problem getting a group of people to agree to even discuss this type of planning. "Won't happen", "Police/Military will take care of it", "I can't imagine anybody from around here being that way", and so on.

Secondly, you do get a group to agree to pursue this concept. Who's going to find the land, buildings, how you gonna pay for all of this. It might be tough for many people to "chip in" any substansial amount of money. Who is going to be in charge. Do you set up a management team, how do they determine what's a priority, how fast can a committee make these decisions, time is short. Will everybody agree to what's been decided and pitch in to make it happen?

Lets say you do get a consensus and gather the funds, setup the strategy. How will everyone know when it's time to head for the designated site or community? Who makes the judgement call on when this happens? Remember, everybody still has their own individual opinion on what might happen in their local area. Will they leave "in time"?

So everybody shows up, shuts the gates, then what? Does anybdoy have a plan for food distribution or is every person responsible for themselves. Who will be in charge, do you elect them, what makes them more qualified than somebody else. A good doctor may not be the right person to be in charge of a self defense plan, maybe the retired war vet might be a better choice, but he's kinda strange and only got in the group since he provides communications skills. Keep in mind that people will still have their prejudices intact.

Well you've figured out the food, you've figured out who's in charge, you've assigned people to their various support functions, now what. Do you wait behind your walls, do you visit the surrounding communities to ascertain what they are doing, do you practice your needle point? People can only be inactive for just so long. Remember we have all been used to going to work, mowing our yards, etc. How will you keep the community intact and avoid the inevitable conflicts that will arise. This may be the hardest part of all, keeping people motivated, active, contributing, etc.

So while the idea may have merit the execution of such a plan takes time, something that is in short supply. You would have a monumental task ahead of you getting people organized between now and the end of the year.

just my humble opinion.....

Freelancer (will code for food :)

-- Freelancer (mercenary2000@yahoo.com), June 07, 1999.


What Freeelancer describes only happens in a military structure. Civilian structures evolve. They only change radically when confronted with a present cisis. Peoples' daily lives go on as usual until TSHTF. Anything else is movie nonsense.

-- curtis schalek (schale1@ibm.net), June 07, 1999.

I feel as if it would be nearly foolish to discuss this level of disruption with people. I've been looking at a 10 for the past year. It never made much sense to us, to prepare for half a storm. If we speak of a 10, we could have Janet Reno breathing down our necks. 10's are wacko's, right? You're talking about "The Postman", here. Heck, we can't even get people to "think 5". EVERYBODY had better start to think 10, if you refuse, your "5" preps may only prolong your misery! This is my biggest irritation with those who scoff at we 10's and suggest preparation levels of "3". Gimme a break. Why even bother? Anybody who's been at this for a year or more, and has prepared for 5, should be ashamed. This is *JUNE 1999* If you "convinced" a newbie, they'd be lucky to make it to level 5 preps in the time they have left, unless they have alot of cash! If you remain in the city, and prepare for a 10....it's "Soylent Green". I prefer daylight. If you're a 10, you'd better be out in the country and meet your neighbors, baby. At least I can walk down to the creek, or have a family pic-nic once in awhile. Location, location, location. I don't understand people who poke fun at 10's. Anyone much beneath that is gambling, unless they've known about the potential for the past year or better, then they're just "hoping" really, really hard. Good question, Stan. If your community is approx. 5-8,000 pop., a "Postman" scenerio could be quite possible. Too bad the *plans* will have to be discussed and implemented in the heat of battle. Do you have good leaders? Yeah. We're ALL suffering a critical shortage of those!

-- Will continue (farming@home.com), June 07, 1999.

Curtis is correct. It's not coincidental that Hardliner, a Marine, implied that he has spent quite a while building this type of group in his own locale.

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), June 07, 1999.


Stan,

The kind of "community" prep you suggest for the scenario you describe is possible only for the Milnes. The rest of us can concieve of such a disaster but cannot reconcile the concequences.

If the major cities go down meaningful commerce stops. Cold. How do you organize, in even a small community, to the point where it makes much difference? Name even a 5000 member agrarian community that could make it without the means of modern agriculture save the Amish or such.

Add the primal, tribal nature lying thinly below our heavily socialized veneer (apoligies to Sand Mueller) and even Mad Max would starve.

Sorry, I got wound up. Bottom line is we can't think like Milne unless we can do as Milne and most of us simply can't do either.

Am doing my best to prep but can't let a Milne 10 get in my way.

-- Carlos (riffraff1@cybertime.net), June 07, 1999.


I hope this thread gets more attention, because I see a lot of good starts to a lot more thoughtful discussions. Sand, you've said something that my girlfriend said as I wondered out loud (grin): that survivors would come together and form make-shift communities or company-sized predators -- depending on the leadership. My complaint about this would be (1) that things could have been better organized if the contingency plans were made (therefore, the community would better meet the challenges of living and defending themselves) and (2) that you could have a more interesting variety of people and skills with some common ground than if you waited for survivors to drift out your way.

Ct, I think you are on to something. But more than people just not wanting to be thought of as militia types or survivalists, I think they really don't like thinking of themselves as militia types or survivalists. On the other hand, is a contingency plan for coming together in a fortified community any more unusual than preparing for 6 months or more? The former seems more reasonable than the latter if things go Mad Max. In fact, I don't see a point in making personal preparations for 6 months or more with regard to holding out in my house... because if Y2K is that bad, I'm not going to be here. I would have bugged out long before 3 months of failures in water, eletricity, natural gas, and sewage.

Jack, while being prepared for bugging out with the family is better than not being prepared to bug out... bugging out may not be so pretty if you wait until the last minute and you are doing it alone. I think that a caravan of bugging out cars and trucks would better suit the possible dangerous situation on the highways and byways-- like the pioneers did when they went west in their covered wagons. Yet again, there seems to be no discussion of this on the forum. But as we get closer to the roll over, more people from the city and suburbs will find such topics of great interest. They don't even have to be going to the same ultimate destinations, but they might travel together to the first camp ground.

There's also the that issue about why someone didn't move out to the country side before the rollover... if they thought it was going to be really bad. In fact, I am beginning to think that just moving out to the country with your family is not the best solution. If it is going to be really bad and no one ever notices you in your country hold out, you may have a difficult life ahead of you. It may also be a short life. Again, without a community of people making up a body of skills and intelligence, how will you fare if you break your leg and it is time to plow the field and lay in the seed? As Mr. Decker pointed out in an earlier thread, self-reliance is not going to get YOU very far.

Sincerely, Stan Faryna

-- Stan Faryna (info@giglobal.com), June 08, 1999.


So, Stan, you just finished reading & digesting Lucifer's Hammer did you! ;-)

The Yourdonite get togethers are ideal settings for addressing an issue as important as a potential ILE: Infomagic-Level Event.

BD, perhaps a chat could be devoted to the subject. It would certainly be fascinating. I have avoided discussing this issue on the forum in order to avoid chasing off any newbies who might stumble upon such a potentially devastating thread.

Peace to All,

-- Bingo1 (howe9@pop.shentel.net), June 08, 1999.


Bingo1 --- Good idea.

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), June 08, 1999.

The question about community survival is TRUST folks.

Once the trust that so many have placed in the gods of convenience and prosperity, the lifestyle we've been all spoiled by, and the faith the many have placed in others has been broken en masse......

Who is going to EVER TRUST again?

There will be two options. ONE: anarchy or a POSTMAN-style feudal system for those with little or no trust. TWO: the time for a global charismatic tyrant or system to enslave the desperate masses will emerge overnight.

Any way you slice it.....life, the way we've known it these past 50 years or so, is over.

Something much more wicked this way comes.

-- INVAR thelurker (lurkingnow@gundark.net), June 08, 1999.



Bull Dog, I sympathize with you. The inevitable question is... would I want to continue if everything I have come to know and love is gone? Yes and no. If you think about it, you might not want to survive the worst. If you are in the midst of the worst unfolding all around you, I think you may feel differently. That instinct to stay alive and protect those you love may come into play. So will you stay holed up in your house or will you bug out to a place where everyone knows your name? (grin)

Freelancer, I have no doubt that the difficulties and misfortunes of building a healthy community as a contingency plan would demand an almost stunning kind of leadership, cooperation, and trust. I see the biggest problem in the financing of such a project. Things always get messy when it comes to money-- especially in non-profit organizations that are not driven by profits or expected profits. And what about those that don't have much money? How will they make a contribution?

Will Continue... Yes, I was thinking about Postman, Water World, and Mad Max at the same time. All of these movies give one an interesting and imaginative glimpse of what is to do after the worst has happened. However, I don't believe there is need for a fortified community of thousands. Based on my conversations with military types, a minimum of 25 armed families would be sufficient as long as the various family members represented a variety of skills, knowledge, and intelligence.

Carlos, I also sympathize with you. I am also doing the best that I can in terms of preps... but this shouldn't exclude our thinking about what happens after we load the bug out bags into the truck and hit the road. I have still not completed my three months of preparations and don't see how I can do it before August. But these considerations do help me think clearly about whether I should continue to expand my house-anchored preps after August to six months... or prepare for a better bug out.

Sincerely, Stan Faryna

P.S. Where is Mr. Decker?

-- Stan Faryna (info@giglobal.com), June 08, 1999.


good you make an appearance Invar, JBD been running wild without your checkmate

-- longtimelurker (here@there.sometimes), June 08, 1999.

Stan,

Waste no sympanthy on me. Your response to Will Continue makes me think Boy Scout. Tell me how 25, well armed, familys survive a Milne 10?

-- Carlos (riffraff1@cybertime.net), June 08, 1999.


Carlos,

Don't get bent out of shape! (smile) I'm sure that someone here will vouch for my sympathies having been well meant. Anyone? (grin) Back to your question: this was covered in Mr. Decker's thread on the fixed position. I'm sure Arlin, our resident operations expert, might also illuminate the possibility of getting decent odds with 25 well armed families. As for that specific number of families, it is an average of the numbers provided to me from several active and retired military officers whose names and ranks will remain undisclosed for the obvious reasons.

Sincerely, Stan Faryna

-- Stan Faryna (info@giglobal.com), June 08, 1999.


Yeah, this is the kinda stuff you don't talk about to most people. I mean, I was talking on the phone to one of my neighbors the other day and mentioned I'm working on getting my solar system installed because I didn't want to risk being without a water pump in the event of power failure and she got angry! "NOTHING'S gonna happen," she said, almost shouting. I hate to imagine her reaction if I brought up the kinda stuff that's on this thread.

I've never seen Mad Max, but I saw The Postman--in fact, it fascinated me enough that I rented the video and watched it several times. I've read the psychologists' thoughts on Y2K attitudes, and I guess I fit into the category of (sometimes) (almost) wanting some major changes. I'm not pleased with our culture the way it is at the moment. For years I've studied disintegrating cultures, and from what I've read and heard, it appears that the best chance for survival is to live on the fringes. I moved to the country long before I was aware of Y2K--my move wasn't based on feelings of impending doom exactly--it's just that I felt life in the fast lane wasn't healthy for me or my kid and I didn't want to live that way. But there didn't seem to be much of any other way to live in the city. Even a the homeless people seemed to be in a rush a lot of the time.

I wish like anything that I could be part of a community of like minded people. The scenario that comes most readily to mind is Galt's Gulch in Ayn Rand's *Atlas Shrugged*. But all the "intentional" communities I'm aware of seem to be...how can I say?...too contrived, too tightly structured, too...I don't know...tight assed. Or something. So here I am on my own. Grow food using no-till method, so I don't have worries about getting gasoline for a tractor or tiller. Built a house out of home made adobe bricks and scrounged lumber. Hauled water in buckets for a while before I put in the water system. So I know I can live that way. And it was a pretty good life, too.

So all you guys who wrote the stuff above, what are you doing? Have you learned to grow food? Forage for wild stuff? If you bug out from where ever you are now, where do you bug to?

--GG

-- Gal Gardner (altamira@ecpi.com), June 08, 1999.


Sooooo Stan, are these individuals prepared themselves? What else do you know.......without naming names (of course)

-- Will continue (farming@home.com), June 08, 1999.

P.S. Obviously, military leadership is required and people would need to live behind a common fortification or well fortified area as opposed to a neighborhood. I'm not talking about a suburb here, but I would like to think a neighborhood in the suburbs could provide some of the same advantages depending on the defensibility of the area and additional families and ammunitions.

-- Stan Faryna (info@giglobal.com), June 08, 1999.

could be, could be, with a little bit of special forces mentality, lot's of trees and ground cover. The problem as I see it, would be finding others who possess "the right stuff" and I don't mean rice. (although hardware comes to mind). Lost my Great-Uncle a few years back, Marine colonel (oval office, Cubin missle crisis). I'd willingly give one of my solar panels, to know what he'd been told today!

-- Will continue (farming@home.com), June 08, 1999.

Stan,

Premise of your original question depended on a Milne type 10. I responded with that in mind. If you have a different queston OK.

PS: GG, Only true fools would look foreward to something like a y2k disaster to improve the present circumstances of a world largely created by no one but ourselves. Look for your comments at debunkers tomorrow.

-- Carlos (riffraff1@cybertime.net), June 08, 1999.


Gal Gardener, You really should speak up a little more often around here. I could use the help, HA. It may be a man's world, but I pitty the fool who tries to block the road of an independent, premerin poppin' women, by gawd!

-- Will continue (farming@home.com), June 08, 1999.

Hate to disagree with you carlos, but just how the *rump* do YOU see it happening any other way? The *vote* perhaps? HOOOHOHOHAAAAHA. Have you seen the results of the last two DISMAL elections???????? Maybe we could make up some flyers, eh, and go door to door?

-- Will continue (farming@home.com), June 08, 1999.

Will,

Billy Jeff ain't the problem, he's a glaring symptom however.

Do your best my friend.

Gotta sleep, God bless.

-- Carlos (riffraff1@cybertime.net), June 08, 1999.


I still say that people will come together for survival. They will form "Hooverville" camps here in our area where there is plenty of area, lots of wood and lots of water. These people will have to make and abide by rules in order to survive. Banishment will be a severe punishment and not one that anyone is going to want to endure. There will be "law" in the camps and it won't be contrived or enforced by badge toting police. If you think people can't come together when it gets down to survival, look to the refugee camps in Albania, etc. But this time, the gubmint may not be there to help. On the other hand, if there is food distribution, some stab at providing basic health care such as vaccinations, water treatment, etc., it will be far easier to do so if people have come together and organized. I can so easily envision that happening down here in the forests of Florida. But in the big cities? The have nots will burn and destroy everything without thinking about anything more than rage. I just down't see how the people in the apts of the cities can survive. One day,s defecation will turn a city into a cesspool of health hazards. Another factor is that those people, even if they have no prior knowledge/preparations for y2k make it down here and set up camp, they will have proved that they are survivors and have the guts and the horse sense to make it. In other words, we will get the cream of the crop or the fittest down here. That can be advantageous to us all.

Taz

-- Taz (Tassie @aol.com), June 08, 1999.


All, this is a very interesting conversation. However, several points that you all must consider.

1. 25 Families - think about how much food 100 people (2 adults, 2 children) require every day. Considering that everyone comes with some basics - rice and beans, canned goods, et c. - how do you supplement meat? Because living will be extremely difficult, caloric requirements will increase, not decrease. To feed your 25 families you would require constant hunting (8oz of meat daily but closer to 32oz if you want to get work out of these people.) This requires two to four deer daily. You can not hunt in your 'community' because any game in the near area has to be preserved as an emergency souce.

2. You don't necessarily need to fortify your community. Vigilance is the key, not protective walls. Remember, walls may keep them out but they keep you in as well. Walls require a water source internal to the community. Streams can be blocked and wells poisoned.

3. How do you train the families to perform the security tasks required to protect your community? You all plan to farm and garden. This requires a division of labor - women and children farm. Men are out hunting. Who now provides your security and in what numbers? More security is required at night. When do you sleep?

These are a few considerations. None of this is impossible but it requires extensive thought, coordination, and discipline. Leadership is the last issue to consider. Leaders will identify themselves whether elected or not.

Thinking like this is not accepted today. Meeting to discuss these topics identifies people who are 'dangerous' to the good order and discipline of the society. Thoughts such as these may be viewed as potentially revolutionary and your group may be tagged as revolutionaries or worse as militia. Good luck and good hunting.

-- Tom (nomail@nomail.com), June 08, 1999.


If we get to a 10? Statistically speaking, I'm probably gonna die.

-- Dave (aaa@aaa.com), June 08, 1999.

Would community making as a contigency plan be an unamerican activity?

Tom made some good points. I think most people realize that it would be a massive effort to feed, protect, organize, and lead 25 families into a new world. I am even more interested, for now, in exploring the issue that such contingency planning might be viewed as unamerican. Do contingency plans for the breakdown of the social structure somehow suggest a desire and intention to overthrow the republic? Or does the a lack of faith in the resiliency of the social structure contribute to the breakdown? America, however, is not some cult; it is a nation.

While there are movements that seek to overthrow this government and culture (and they require monitoring and appropriate actions), why would the FBI (for example) focus on groups whose contigency plans included building a community that could stand up to the worst of Y2K or even a nuclear war? Would such a group be fertile ground for those so discontented with the Republic that they seek to throw a log onto the fire (if a fire should break out)? Is it not possible that such groups might preserve the hopes of the republic in a time of trouble?

Who will fly the stars and stripes if there is a wide-spread break down and great confusion ensues-- if it is not flown high above the fortifications of these kinds of communities? Who will store the seeds of democracy and freedom and plant them again-- if it is not stored and planted by the rugged Americans that took refuge from the storm? Is this great nation more than a mere confidence of the people in its resiliency against the storms that blow? I believe that it is more.

Sincerely, Stan Faryna

-- Stan Faryna (info@giglobal.com), June 08, 1999.


Gal Garner wrote:

"I wish like anything that I could be part of a community of like minded people." I'd like to make a comment about that.

I think may people look for a community backwards-style. First, they look for a place, then they try to build community spirit.

The better way is to find like-minded people and then build a community.

You can't build community spirit without shared values.

In colonial America, people first formed a church. They they all moved to a new area and built a church.

That should be a model for Y2Ker to follow.

Build relationships with people you value and trust... then build a community with them.

That community may be a vacation house in the country in which all have an equal share of ownership. Or it may be raw land with tents, recreational vehicles, etc.

It takes time to come from the "outside" and become part of a new community. In some cases, outsiders never feel like a member of the community in which they live.

And, if you think there isn't much time before problems start, it will be doubly tough to blend into most communities.

Remember: Shared values and relationships first. Community second.

-- Walt (longyear@shentel.net), June 08, 1999.


Treasure of the sierra madre, first one that falls asleep loses!! Please don't suggest that if its a 10 that their will be any semblance of civility, give me a break. Even my wife does not want to even tell her family that we have food supplies. Now if my wife does not want to tell even her own family that we have food, she is basically saying that in the event of a 10 she is going to put her children first, which means she has already considered the thought of allowing her elderly parents to fend for themselves! Survival of the fittest! Squirrel hunting, fishing, gardening, etc.

-- David Butts (dciinc@aol.com), June 08, 1999.

GG, Tom, and Freelancer have brought up some interesting points on the difficulties of building a post-Y2K Milne Scale 10 community. I am surprised that no one wants to weigh in with ideas on how to meet the challenges. Now, if Mr. Decker had brought up these questions (grin), I would bet that there would be vigorous and forceful answer to even the littlest details. Perhaps, this is one of the reasons that I find myself reminiscing fondly over Mr. Decker's deconstructive essays on how GIs hadn't considered something fully. If he could only get off that squeaky cult-church soap box and just be patronizingly reasonable about how we have failed to consider fully what we are really saying!

Sincerely, Stan Faryna

-- Stan Faryna (info@giglobal.com), June 08, 1999.


Walt,

I think your thoughtful insight unzips Big Dog's point about trust and relationship. The problem I see is that most of us GIs do not really share common religious and political ground on which to build upon. As Arlin pointed out about out last Northern Virginia get together, we were all very different people. While we do have a common concern about the potential social disasters that could result from technology failures, our own understandings of what the worst is seems to vary.

What can be built on such concerns? Obviously, it has to be more? Some common ethical perspective, a passion for freedom and democracy, and a commitment to seeking out a future that dignifies the person and improves the common good... are these things that will draw people together? Are these things enough to make a fertile soil for a real community to grow from? I wonder. In asking these questions, I wonder how our forefathers ever dared to embark upon the American Experiment?

It was an awesome act of individual courage and trust in the American people.

I do look forward to meeting you at the second Northern Virginia get together. I am sure that others will also be interested to discuss these things more with us. You've been a great help in helping me identify a location and date for the next board meeting. Hopefully, we should have a tremendous turn out. Of course, Carla Emery's seminar is frosting on the cake. That also... thanks to you. I think I will have to bring a couple of apple pies (laughing)... it is the American thing to do!

Sincerely, Stan Faryna

-- Stan Faryna (info@giglobal.com), June 08, 1999.


I'm afraid that if it's a 10, it's going to be a pure survival issue. Since it's clear now that 95% of the public won't prepare adequately for a BITR, I think you could expect anger, fear, desperation, violence, and all that accompanies it. Millions would perish before spring.

An enormous problem would be the individual predators survive by using force to take what they need. There will be many of them at first. Some rural neighborhoods will loosely organize for self-defense; others will become ghost towns if there is not reliable source of clean water and food. Your neighbor may shoot you if he determines that you are better prepared than him. Community-building is going to be very difficult to do under these conditions. It should have done now, but it won't happen. The 72 hour cover story prevents that.

Epidemics would spread unchecked throughout the population. The Federal government would become irrelevant quickly.

My guess is that if it is a 10, you still have less than a 50% chance of surviving a year and a half, even if you prepared for a 10.

I'm preparing for a 10 and praying for a 1. I agree that there can be no 5. Y2K is either an inconvenience or it's Mad Max.

Sorry to be so gloomy, but I just don't see a safe and gentle way to transistion into that scenario.

-- Doug (douglasjohnson@prodigy.net), June 08, 1999.


We've heard of different communities forming around core ideals. Almost none have survived. There are ego flares, power grabs, corruption, abuse of power, etc. Man does not seem to have evolved enough yet. And now ppl are used to being able to go it alone. In the USA our society is geared toward Individualism. There have been benefits from this, but it may make switching gears a grinding experience.

xxxxxxx xxxxxxx xx

-- Ashton & Leska in Cascadia (allaha@earthlink.net), June 08, 1999.


Stan,

As for ideas about how to build the community, I have an infinite supply. Communities are built on shared values. The group that I am part of has a vision for the future that is based on our values, spiritual beliefs, and desires to survive and prosper in the post 10 environment. You can form loosely knit groups in yur present communities or, after identifying and organizing a group, move it to your location of choice.

To address your point about the scrutiny of a group, you need to look only at recent history to see examples of colonies where the American Flag flew high while the government attacked.

Which do you propose to uphold, the government of the U.S. or the Constitution of the U.S. Both have enemies and may actually be mutually exclusive. Law and order within a community may exclude both as well. Unfortunately, we have little time and much to think through.

-- Tom (nomail@nomail.com), June 08, 1999.


Stan - either I've contributed or started at least two threads dealing with ramifications of a 10, one in the organizational aspect and the other in the health "plague" aspect.

Leadership, whether or not democratic or militaristic models are the best - pros & cons of letting the land owner be the boss. Dealing with personnel friction, sex out of marriage, homosexual people, children, teens, religion, new people entering post-y2k, divorce. Divvying up of chores - gardens, animals, patrols, food prep, latrine duty. Justice. Entertainment. What to do if a key person dies or leaves. Mental health. Safety, protection, perimeters, gun & bow & knive training. What constitutes safe haven, blocking ingress to the area. Communication. Living with neighbors who do not wish to take part in your enclave.

Re health: Plague, what to do if it comes into your enclave. What to do if someone is repulsed by the perimeter patrol yet is infected and brings the plague into your enclave. How to deal with numerous dead bodies. Do you have a quarantine/hospital planned - in house, or a separate building. Do you have means to feed and nurse the sick and dying? do you have medicine stocked, herbal knowledge and stocks, do you know basic EMT, can you reduce a fracture, do you know how to transfuse blook safely, can you deliver a breach birth, can you deal with death of birthing mother and/or the birthing baby? Can you stop heavy blood flows, can you suture, can you amputate, can you cautaurize. Can you pull teeth without damaging the jaw, can you repair broken or chipped teeth, what do you do with a tooth that goes rotten - do you have dental tools. Have you thought about pain relievers & ansthetics? Do you have/can make distilled alcohol, do you have poppies growing?

Do you have the infrastructure necessary to live and do the Carla Emery's "Encyclopedia of Country Living" type life?

Interrupted Food Chain consequences have been discussed - amounts of food, calories needed for heavy work, impossibility of feeding people from wildlife, whether or not a garden should be planted if it does go into a 10 or should one wait till the next year.

Running out of fuel for farm impliments and transportation have been talked about. What is your fallback? Do you have horses, oxen, mules, donkeys, goats who either haven't been eaten by those who haven't prepared, and have been cart trained, plow trained, oh, and do you have a cart, do you have a plow. What are you going to do when the last shovel handle breaks, or ax handle - does someone know how to carve?

What are you going to do if you have a major crop failure for one or two years running and your food stock people eating food stock ratio demands that a fair amount of fresh food be produced. Are you going to kick people out?

What happens when your clothing begins to get really threadbare and torn? Beyond repair. Anyone know how to spin and weave?

Hey, if you really look at what a 10 is, I seriously doubt that 1 in 10M will have the infrastructure and skills necessary to survive without sinking into savagery. & it will take luck even then.

Better hope the polly are right!

-- Mitchell Barnes (spanda@inreach.com), June 08, 1999.


David,

I do not think it is impossible for individuals who possess some moral character to attempt to preserve the graces and the good habits that they have been given and acquired. Including character-building in your preparations should be dictated by your prudence. Whether or not Y2K is bad, such graces and good habits will bear fruit. You need not be perfect to seek greater moral character through the practice of the natural virtues (moral and intellectual) and the supernatural virtues.

Don't you be mad at me (laughing), but I think that attitude and mind set represented by neo-Darwinian slogans such as "survival of the fittest" too easily provides an excuse and apology... for not seeking goodness where it will be found... for turning one's back on another human being... for fleeing the moral high ground and joining the apes in the trees. I grew up under this mentality and I raged against it every step of the way. Darwin and Christ really don't go hand in hand.

Nor does Alexander the Great's improvement upon Aristotle's ethics go hand in hand with Darwin. I often wonder if the breakdown of American culture (as so many people now bemoan) did not begin with a Darwinian smugness. In my conversations with elderly Americans, a Darwinian smugness seems to be pervasive. But this is not the stuff that was the mother's milk of the founding fathers as they gathered in Philadelphia or the adventuresome pioneers that drove wagons and destiny westward.

Sincerely, Stan Faryna

-- Stan Faryna (info@giglobal.com), June 08, 1999.


The question of leadership has come up in several responses; it seems the greatest challenge. And I can not but help to reflect that it is a sad thing that leadership seems the greatest challenge... in a country where formal education is second to none. What is missing from the education of Americans, if there is a lack of men and women who can not be good and great leaders in good and bad times. Is there a lack of such men and women? Or are we Americans unleadable? Do we so fear tyranny that we are incapable even of following leaders of high moral character? If so, this fear has become a disease that needs treatment. The answers to these questions may provide some small insight into the situation at hand... without the kind of intelligent, far-seeing, virtuous statesmen that would have dealt with Y2K problems long before the rollover.

Sincerely, Stan Faryna

-- Stan Faryna (info@giglobal.com), June 08, 1999.


I have been lurking for a year, posting only once or twice. I am a militia commander. My unit consists of 12 men. We have prepared 3 fallback positions that are stocked, fortified, and isolated from population centers. This was done over the last 3 years. All members are now out of the city and rural homes are set with all necessary preparations. Commo is tested regularly and backup commo is in place. All scenarios are covered. We are in the mission forming stage at this time. It is our intention to defend and if necessary, restore the rights and freedoms of the individual. We are also considering maintaining law and order in our area. You folks are talking about the right issues, but time is slipping away. Best bet now is to find a group like ours. We are covert, by the way.

bertin

-- Bertin Opus (third@hotmail.com), June 08, 1999.


Stan,

I agree that people of character will band together even in a 10 scenario. Division of labor makes sense, because nobody can do all the things Mitchell outlined above.

The only question is when. My assessment is that it would be after the weak folks have all died, and the predators have become scarce.

If you're lucky enough to live a place where your neighbors are as prepared as you are, then the banding together will come sooner. Sadly, that type of community is going to be very rare.

After the carnage is over in a 10 scenario (and in a 10 scenario I'm assuming that most Americans won't have a safe source of drinking water) the survivors will pick up the pieces and try to restore civilization again.

-- Doug (douglasjohnson@prodigy.net), June 08, 1999.


We tried to form a loosely knit "community" last year, figuring that would give us time to see if we were all compatible. Our idea was to "rent" spaces that you could pull a camper or trailer on in the woods. We had unlimited wood and streams to offer as well as space. This would also allow people to have a place to safely store their provisions in advance. The "rent" would cease on 1/1/00 and would be used for shower house,indoor plumbing and a community building with wood stoves should this turn out to last longer than anyone expected and they might run out of heating capabilities in their individual homes. We were non-denominational,non-political,and non-racist.

How many did we end up with? NONE. How many inquired? Dozens ! So what was the problem(s)? Some were against arms and defending ourselves. Some didn't have the money and weren't willing to give up their creature comforts to get a trailer or camper ($1,000. investment !) Those that couldn't pay the rent weren't willing to give up their weekends and pay it by labor. Some were just freeloaders and not serious.But mostly when they got over their initial fear they lost interest in anything that would require a sustained effort on their part.

We have quit advertising as it is now past the time to get to know any inquirers and are continuing to do our preps ourselves with basically just family. We think we can hold out for quite a while (year or 2) against anything less than nuclear war or an armored division (just kidding!)

If it's bad, we've done our best. If it isn't we'll have a beautiful campground.

-- y2klady (y2klady2@country.com), June 08, 1999.


Stan:

Regarding Darwin and Christ and Nietche,Alexander whomever! As much as my spiritual nature desires to deny, "survival of the fittest" it is too difficult to objectively refute, especially living in a country that on Sunday worships God and on monday worships Money. With just a little observation one can see The strongest countries, the healthiest people, the wealthiest people the wealthiest companies are the one that "survive". Whereas the weakest countries,companies,people etc. perish!. Even though we would like to perpetuate spiritual values for the sake of (civil)ization. I don't want my subjective spiritual desires to obscure the ominous reality of natural selection!! Respectfully, David Butts

-- David Butts (dciinc@aol.com), June 08, 1999.


bertin,

I'm sure prepared people would love to find a group like yours in the vicinity. The problem is, as you say, you're covert!

-- Doug (douglasjohnson@prodigy.net), June 08, 1999.


Well, howdy-doody..there you have it folks. Straight from the mouth of Bertin!! Everything else, discussed thus far is just phoo-phoo. Do you have any idea how long I've waited, lurking, hoping somebody would just simply put the cards on the table here? Read it again....it's the bottom line. The only "groups" who will stand a chance in a "10" will be those like Bertin's who have a copy of this country's Constitution in their pockets. Period. The only other comment I have, is that if you're not removed from populated areas, it will only be a matter of *time* for the majority. "The Stand" comes to mind for me! Nobody wants to discuss this *bottom line* for the very reasons mentioned before about our government's views on militia. (Christ...gotta go....Janet just pulled into my drive!!!)

-- Will continue (farming@home.com), June 08, 1999.

One of the reasons for starting this thread has been my reflection on when personal preparations are enough (reminiscent of Mr. Decker's question) but with the added twist that if Y2K is a Mad Max 10, there seems to be a point where family preparations have reached their maximum usefulness. At that point, you either are a better man than Davey Crockett or you better start on your community building preparations. Practically speaking, should that happy person who just got $US 3,000.00 to spend on more preps, lay in canned and dehydrated food for a couple of years? Or should they pay down debts? ... if they don't plan on joining or building a post Y2K Milne scale 10 community.

Do you encourage the newbie who has the idea to put in a 3,000 gallon plastic water tank in their back yard, or do you tell them that getting four to six 55 gallon water barrels makes better sense if they are on a budget? Those that survive and think that they may find a community in the aftermath of a Mad Max 10 may want to have something to contribute to the well-being of the community, but anchored preps like wood stoves, buried water tanks, and other stuff will have costed quite a bit of cash, yet might not be transportable to the community. I'm interested in what community planners are telling people to bring ... if those members will be joining them just before or after the rollover.

I imagine a list might include: canned and dehydrated food to get to the first harvesting season and through the 2000-2001 winter; tens of pounds of non-hybrid seed; Solar, wind, and water power technology; livestock (beef and milk cows, goats and sheep, horses and donkeys, chickens and rabbits) and feed; shutzhund trained and other guard dogs, weapons and ammunitions; and a whole variety of other things-- especially things that a particular family has special insight into. For example, doctors and nurses would bring medical supplies and non electric medical technology, farmers would bring their livestock and non-fossil fuel driven equipment, tools, technology, know how, etc.

A listing of things here of what different kinds of things people have special insight into and/or could contribute to a post Y2K Milne scale 10 community... would facilitate quicker decisions by the leadership and better organization of a proposed community. Even a web designer like myself may have some interesting hobbies that might translate well into useful things for a post Y2K milne scale 10 community. In fact, I think people will surprise themselves by what they know about and how this could be of use for a common good. This also may be a good idea for some newbies to consider as opposed to just laying in personal preparations that might only poorly serve them and theirs.

Sincerely, Stan Faryna

-- Stan Faryna (info@giglobal.com), June 08, 1999.


Just kiddin' about that "Reno" thing, ha......would an e-mail *count* as "my right to make one phone call"? Maybe I should curb my kiddin' around so much with ya'll, hmmmm

-- Will continue (farming@home.com), June 08, 1999.

Stan,

I'm interested in what community planners are telling people to bring

You are assuming a fact that doesn't appear to be in evidence. As far as I can tell, there are no community planners. Your concept is sound, but it's not happening anyplace that I know of, and certainly not a large scale anywhere.

Haven't you heard? "72 hours".

Sleep people, no need to get excited...

-- Doug (douglasjohnson@prodigy.net), June 08, 1999.


Two points. 1. For the sake of arguement, America and Americans no longer feel the effects of natural selection where strength and intelligence secure survival. The welfare state has ensured that the weak survive and reproduce and thereby weaken the overall society. Modern medicine ensures that many who would perish live extended lives. Quality of food also contributes to longer life expectancy. In this environment, leadership is often washed out or faded. In a true crisis, leaders will emerge. Their individual strength and intelligence (applied common sense) will move them to the forefront. Those who are not alphas will not be able to compete but instead, will be forced to follow or move on. Those who move out on their own will develop the skills to survive or they will perish.

2. People of character. What exactly is this? If you mean the ability to judge right from and wrong and act on your judgement, that is one thing. Hopefully, we teach by example all that we come into contact about character. On the other face, character may be the ability to make the hard decisions that condemn some of us to a vicious death. Leadership comes up again and again because not all men of character can make these decisions. Leaders are not always moral individuals. If they were, the majority of ministers would be leaders. Leaders must have the best interest of the group in mind and focus on the survival of the group. We want these people to be morally upstanding, fundamentally sound individuals who also serve as teachers of right. If the world goes 10, the rule of law will fall. In that case, look for leader and hope that the leader is moral.

One last note. I don't know why your loosely knit community failed. However, like all change management initiatives, even loosely knit communities must have a sense of shared values and recognizable goals that focus on a shared outcome.

-- Tom (nomail@nomail.com), June 08, 1999.


Bertin,

What does "covert" mean? Are you quietly making preparations? Or are you quietly making preparations that involve various illegalities? Don't answer that if it's the second one (for your own sake)! (grin) Nor do I want to know. And why is it that some people think that a community can only grow out of a militia unit? I could be wrong in my opinion, but it seems that a community of hardened militia men and women may not make the most interesting and attractive community. Sure, you want military-militia people to organize civic defense, but I don't know about the other things. Hence, a division of leadership according to various domains of living and life seems more appropriate.

Sincerely, Stan Faryna

-- Stan Faryna (info@giglobal.com), June 08, 1999.


One thing that Paul Milne has said repeatedly in his posts bears repeating here:

If things go "Milne", preparing to the extent that he has is not a guarantee of survival. But it improves his odds immensely.

-- a (a@a.a), June 08, 1999.


Y2K Lady,

I am sorry to hear that your plans for a community fell apart. I would be greatly interested in a greater description of how things started to go wrong, how people got hurt, and when people decided it was time to go or not show up. I think this would be an incredible insight for all of us to learn from.

Sincerely, Stan Faryna

-- Stan Faryna (info@giglobal.com), June 08, 1999.


Now we're happy to hear from a self-appointed "militia commander"?? A militia commander??? What the hell is that?? Are we still playing army man Bertin?? Man'o'man.........yall are getting more and more scary everyday. 3 fallbacks, stocked and fortified!!

THIS IS WHAT I MEAN BY ENTERTAINMENT. Extremely amusing stuff here folks!!! PRICELESS!!!!

Deano

-- Deano (deano@luvthebeach.com), June 08, 1999.


I'll quickly answer and then don my asbestos suit. IMHO, the issue is a moot one. Mr. North has been correct in his predictions exactly once in the last two decades, and that one was regarding a suggested stock. Mr. Milne has an even lower rate of correctness. He predicted the Stock Market would collapse as early as January of 1998. Actually, he may have predicted it would collapse EARLIER than that, but I've only followed his predictions since January of 1998. Even in early 1998, Mr. Milne pointed to Asia and other foreign lands as the downfall of the U.S. Of course in those days he hadn't yet turned Y2k into the Jerry Springer show with the "butthead", "moron", and other ad hominem terms that the censors of this board would object to my repeating, and of which I find so many here rallying.

My opinions only,

Anita

-- Anita Spooner (spoonera@msn.com), June 08, 1999.


1. The assumption that you can "build" a community where everyone comes to the table with usable skills - specifically sought after and set up - would mean that the community would have to be set up, in operation and functioning prior to 1/1/2000. To bank on everyone showing up after 1/1/2000 at whatever pre-appointed time/location is rolling the dice.Might not be a bad idea to make sure that EVERYONE has multiple skills and assets to bring to the community. Would really hate to think that if the blacksmith didn't show up - that the whole concept would come unravelled.

2. Alternate hypothesis - natural evolution will bring folks together after a fashion - only the strong survive and all that. Once TEOTWAWKI happens - and folks start thinning out - whatever/whoever is left over will form into communities - and the whole process of reconstituting civilization can begin. In this case the idea that we can develop the rules for this community ahead of time is somewhat arrogant. About our only reasonable choices will be limited to whether we wanted to participate.

so - conclusion - throw together a well thought-out outline of the ideal community - rich with "how-to" links - so folks can at least have the general concept of how it should be - and then if some of you want to form a community - go for it.

me? Have given this alot of thought - my community consists of family - coming together from all over - and taking it one step at a time if/when they show up. Plan is full of holes and unknowns - that is why this thread interests me so much. I certainly don't have all the answers.

-- justme (not@home.com), June 08, 1999.


Stan-

you asked: What does "covert" mean? xxxxx We are a secret, unknown unit. We feel no pressure from employers or peers as a result of our commitment.

Are you quietly making preparations?

xxxxx Yes.

Or are you quietly making preparations that involve various illegalities?

xxxxx No, at least not under today's laws...

And why is it that some people think that a community can only grow out of a militia unit? I could be wrong in my opinion, but it seems that a community of hardened militia men and women may not make the most interesting and attractive community.

xxxxx We started in 1992. We have worked out all the bugs and so-so members. Besides, if you want 'interesting and attractive' you should look in Hollywood.

Sure, you want military-militia people to organize civic defense, but I don't know about the other things. Hence, a division of leadership according to various domains of living and life seems more appropriate.

xxxxx We have In all decisions, the resident expert(s) in the applicable area (farming, military, medical, food prep, etc. take the lead. Family members play key roles in their area of expertise. There is no religious overtone; we have Jews, Buddhists, and agnostics, as well as others. No homosexuals are involved, however.

Bertin

-- Bertin Opus (third@hotmail.com), June 08, 1999.


Bertin,

Thank you for your good humor and patience with my wording. I admire your foresight and commitment to the protection and safety of you and yours. I also don't see what the big deal is about your community being "covert," your measures seem prudent and reasonable in the light of the current unkind attitudes about survivalists and the militia. Your community does sound like it is well thought out and ready for whatever comes. How did you keep the disagreements from becoming dissent, discontent, and a going of separate ways? How did you inspire the various members to make the appropriate sacrifices? What is your best advice to people thinking about forming communities of their own?

Sincerely, Stan Faryna

-- Stan Faryna (info@giglobal.com), June 08, 1999.


Will continue, when you see Janet please give her a copy of "Unintended Consequences".

-- Betty Alice (Barn266@aol.com), June 08, 1999.

Deano, if may be that you and I might now poke some fun at Bertin's seemingly military-esque preparations, but *if* things go Mad Max (if that very smallest of the smallest chance becomes real), Berlin will have the last laugh (or maybe a tear-- if he has a really big heart). And... Hollywood might appreciate a Bertin as a Y2K film consultant.

Anita, I don't know who this Milne guy really is or what he is about. I've read some of his posts, but the phrase "a Milne 10," "Infomagic," or "Mad Max" certainly seem to capture the imagination. As I said at the beginning of this thread, if people think they can make private preparations for a Milne scale 10-- are they just kidding themselves?

Justme suggests an improvement to this thread... "throw together a well thought-out outline of the ideal community - rich with "how-to" links - so folks can at least have the general concept of how it should be." That reads to me as a worthwhile improvement to this thread. And I'd really like to know where Mr. Decker has gone off to!

Sincerely, Stan Faryna

P.S. I'm having a deja-vu. "And Mr. Decker will have the 24 ounce prime rib," I sternly told the waiter as everyone burst out laughing.

-- Stan Faryna (info@giglobal.com), June 08, 1999.


Dave,

I know many have mentioned it, so I am not picking on you. (smile) In fact, you had some agreements with me, so I'm very interested in your definition of what "weak folk" is or are. Are you "weak" because you were unlucky and contracted a terrible disease because human fecal matter sullied your surburban neighborhood and became a breeding ground of all sorts of nasty things? Are you "weak" because you didn't listen to your Y2K alert neighbor and laughed at the government's 72 hour recommendation? Are you "weak" because you are getting along in your years, not as fit as you could be, or you are disabled, etc? Are you "weak" or are you "unlucky"? I do take exception to the term.

If you were "weak," were you useless to a post Y2K Milne scale 10 community? If you are a retired doctor, are your skills and knowledge of no use to that community since you only got 20 years to live and can't help plow a field? If you are blind, will you be rejected by such a community (granted that someone might have to get you there before they kick you out) or would you be a part of a crack night surveilance team since your ears work better than the guy who sees? If you are "weak" because you are unfit for hard labor, though you can bring tens of thousands dollars of preps to the community (preps that may be worth hundreds of thousands in that Mad Max like situation)?

Sincerely, Stan Faryna

-- Stan Faryna (info@giglobal.com), June 08, 1999.


Stan- You asked- How did you keep the disagreements from becoming dissent, discontent, and a going of separate ways?

xxxxx

Simple. We make no moves, investments, or important decisions that are not approvedby a 2/3 majority. In militia matters, the men vote. In y2k matters, the spouses are voters, too. Leaders are elected every other year.

How did you inspire the various members to make the appropriate sacrifices?

xxxxx

Above all, we are freedom lovers. The more active members keep the others informed. There is more than enough motivation coming from federal and state governments. (Examples: Connetticut and California gun confiscation proposals). All sacrifices and expenditures are voluntary, with the explicit understanding that there will be no recouping of community gear, property, and material... it is a donation.

What is your best advice to people thinking about forming communities of their own?

xxxxx

We started with 3 true friends. Each addition was recruited, using a multitude of considerations and even tests. 60 day observation period, following a suggestion to the individual that such a group might exist. Interviews regarding family members, income, committment, etc.

As I said, it's late. Mention to your most radical acquaintance that you might be interested in finding or forming a REAL survival group... wait for that to bear fruit. It will, but not right away. Stay away from public groups and strict religious/politically motivated folks.

That's it for me. I'm outta here. good luck to all. Bertin

-- Bertin Opus (third@hotmail.com), June 08, 1999.


Stan - I gots news for ya. IF it gets that bad (Mad Max), Bertin and his band can have the place all to themselves. No ballfields, no golf courses, no beach, NO HAAGEN-DAAS????(sp?)..........NO LIFE FOR ME! I even shudder at the thought....

It was the 'militia commander' comment that got me. I just pictured some little kids in a fort, wearing army costumes, smearing grease on their faces and PLAYING WITH REAL GUNS!!!!! Now it's not so damned funny anymore........

Deano

-- Deano (deano@luvthebeach.com), June 08, 1999.


Interesting array of answers. Mitchell Barnes' seemed to be the closest to reality. But do not discount God! Is a man a fool to trust in Him? "Therefore I say unto you, Take no thought for your life, what ye shal eat, or what ye shall drink; nor yet for your body, or what ye shall put on." Etc. Whatever was He talking about? Was He mad? All I know is this: when the collapse comes (for whatever reason) and the Terror begins, I hope you all remember how to pray. (flame away, gang, but nothing you can say wasn't said more elegantly by Voltaire centuries ago). Pax.

-- Spidey (in@jam.commie), June 08, 1999.

WOW you've really gotem goin Stan! This is the thread to watch...keep goin guys!!

-- MidwestMike_ (midwestmike_@hotmail.com), June 08, 1999.

Stan,

What is weak?

As it was said to me once, our ancestors had snot dripping from their noses constantly and a belly full of worms.

Who is weak will be seen by that individual's inability to fight off the infection caused by walking through the cesspool that you mention. Weakness will be defined by the body's inability to adapt to the environment caused by the Mad Max world. Those who have stronger traits will survive the harsh winter or the flu epidemic. Some of these individuals will be left with disabled characteristics such as blindness.

Those individuals that you mentioned may or may not be weak. Time will answer the question. Certainly, their skills will be useful. I would exclude no one who is willing to contribute.

-- Tom (nomail@nomail.com), June 08, 1999.


If it goes "10", just bend over and kiss your ass goodbye.... IMHO...

watchin' the neighbor,

The Dog

-- Dog (cmpennell@juno.com), June 08, 1999.


Tom, you really have kept up with the high speed and furious pace of the various questions in this thread. Is that quick thinking or much reflected? I have enjoyed your comments; you have very reasonable opinions. Got any questions? Or do you have these things figured out?

Midwest Mike, come on and throw in your two cents. Hashing it all out here is better than having private and incomplete thoughts in your head. At least, that's how I take it. I can think about a problem a lot better if I can get a full circle picture on the various issues.

Spidey, I will be praying too. I'll be praying to ask for things like hope, love, and faith. And I figure that I'll be asking the good Lord for forgiveness for what evil I had done and what good I had failed to do. Certainly, the Lord can make a strong man out of a weak man.(grin)

Deano, the fact that I am trying to figure out how to quit smoking is enough of a challenge... so I agree that I do not look forward to a Mad Max 10, and I'm more than willing to attend the polly celebrations come 2001 if Y2K problems turned out to be just a bump in the road.

Sincerely, Stan Faryna

-- Stan Faryna (info@giglobal.com), June 08, 1999.


Stan,

Semantics??? weak is weak, physical,mental,emotional,spiritual, financial, c'mon you know what I mean by weak. I mean weak. If we are discussing a 10, and all that it implies then we are basically going back to survival techniques. No luxuries,no A/c, water,money,food,heat,etc. Plus others that don't have--- attempting to take what you have. I think the old classic movie, "the lifeboat" captures the spirit of a "10"-------who's valuble and whos not. Example: are you fat,stupid,weak,old,uneducated,bankrupt,in debt. live in a city,did you prepare,do you have tools,very close warrior type friends, you know like genghis Khan and his clan of 20 or so who captured the world!?? Respectfully, David

-- David Butts (dciinc@aol.com), June 08, 1999.


You know, Deano, we can thank some "militia commanders" of more than 220 years ago for the freedoms we still have.

-- Vic (Rdrunner@internetwork.net), June 08, 1999.

Yes we can Vic, we certainly can. BUT WE AREN'T TALKING ABOUT THEM ARE WE????? I'm pretty sure the conversation was about Bertin and his bunch and some fantasy about a post-apocalyptic, self-sustaining society.

Deano

-- Deano (deano@luvthebeach.com), June 08, 1999.


I want to thank all who have contributed to this thread. This has been the most enjoyable I've come across. Having said that, I must say I am not planning on prepairing for anything resembleing a 10. I will prepair for ~2 months in the home, after that (and probably before)it seems most here agree that suburban survival is nearly impossible. Then it's bugout time. This limits one to what they can carry on their back, or under "ideal" conditions, a truck (not counting on ideal conditions). At this point the most I could hope for would be to join with a willing group well away from the starving masses in and around the big city (St. Louis, MO.) I can see no way ANYONE can survive in the city for long, weeks is my guess. Sanitation if nothing else will drive out, or wipe out the city population. No doubt. So now it's down to 19th century living skills and luck. The earths population will decline rapidly, leaving scattered groups and lucky loners. The earth will then need to clean itself of the ravages of the 10, man certainly will not be up to the task. Now enter the POSTMAN. I could be wrong, hope so.

-- MidwestMike_ (midwestmike_@hotmail.com), June 08, 1999.

I hate it when I have to go to the trouble to draw a mental picture for some benighted poster like you, Deano. I'm sure there were some intellectually challenged folks around back in the mid-1770s who thought the "militia" were dangerous, anti-government seditionists who were a threat to the legitimate government. Damned if they weren't. Now do you understand?

-- Vic (Rdrunner@internetwork.net), June 08, 1999.

MidwestMike

I would hope you would have a pre-determined place to bug-out to. Rural residents are going to be less than thrilled to welcome every stranger who escapes the big city.

-- Doug (douglasjohnson@prodigy.net), June 08, 1999.


go through the archives...you'll find this subjects been talked about to death months ago...fortifications! mad max world! you doomers haven't learned anything in the past year have you?

-- old doomer fantasy (rehash@old.subject), June 08, 1999.

Coming to grips with the unlikely and unpleasant necessity for bugging out may, indeed, be harder than GIing. As I told someone a while back, making bug out contigency plans does not mean that you are actually going to bug out or that Mad Max is just around the corner. The world as we know it hasn't ended. Sometimes, people really feel that if they prepare for it, it must be happening. Therefore, they would rather not prep for it.

It's like going out of your way (however unreasonably) so that a black cat doesn't cross your path. I am also reminded of POWs that were encouraged to write anti-American essays and having written the essays (if even to get something resembling food and water), these Americans believed that they had betrayed their country. Thinking about a Y2K community may even be harder to deal with than plans to bug out.

Sincerely, Stan Faryna

-- Stan Faryna (info@giglobal.com), June 08, 1999.


old doomer fantasy,

Got links? (laughing)

Sincerely, Stan Faryna

-- Stan Faryna (info@giglobal.com), June 08, 1999.


According to Mr. Decker's summary of the various responses he got to his economic questions about how bad it was going to be, there seemed to be an overwhelming consensus that, economically speaking, we were in for something as grim as twice as bad as the great depression. I think Mr. Decker will go along with my representation of his keen analysis. So if you really are a card carrying doomer, you might as well be preparing for all those bad dudes in the Mad Max movie... and putting up walls of steel-belted tires (filled with earth) around your community. Sound silly? You better rethink things and figure out where you really stand. There's a very real point where you have maxed out the usefulness of your personal and private preparations for Y2K. So does that mean you are back to a 4-6 or have you made a total commitment?

-- Stan Faryna (info@giglobal.com), June 08, 1999.

If y2k turns out to be a 10 as Milne describes, I'm not sure it will matter you are and how big the group. People can walk 10-14 days or more, at 20 miles a day or more, look at the Kosovo refugee situation. Only with armed refugees. It seems IMHO like discussing people picnicing on a railroad track, large groups or smaall, fortified or not, with a train headed in their direction at 60 miles an hour. At a 10, we're all on the railroad track, urban or rural, well stocked and armed, or singing in the sunshine!!

-- Leslie (***@***.net), June 08, 1999.

If it gets worse than a 10 (mad max world)....who wants to live there? Not me. I love life and this earth but lets face it.... I have a better home to go to in heaven. If mad max knocks on my door then I will deal with him then.

Bulldog

It is not your choice to die, Bulldog. I don't think anyone WANTS to live in that world, but that may be our fate. If so, your duty is to survive. If not for yourself, then for posterity. Be prepared.

Hell, even if you die, your preparations will help someone...

Regards,

Will

-- Will Huett (willhuett@usa.net), June 08, 1999.


Wish you would stop invoking Decker as though he were some sort of expert. Enough already.

Relevant point for this thread:

If a Y2K impact 2 or 4 or .... is likely to go to 9 or 10 without stopping at GO (5, 6, 7, 8) then serious bugout Mad Max scenarios are more worth planning for than the other ones. I consider that view (which many of us hold) possible but not demonstrable.

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), June 08, 1999.


"Preparing does not guarantee survival. Neither does the lack of preparing guarantee death. If you hedge your bets and play the odds, you'll stand a better chance than those who don't. That's the best you can offer yourself and you'll find that it's far more effective to depend upon yourself than on others."

-Arnie Rimmer

-- Stan Faryna (info@giglobal.com), June 08, 1999.


BD,

IMO Stan is simply attempting to draw Decker into this discussion. Tickling him under his e-chin, so to speak.

I have a strong suspicion this thread will be continued at the June 19th meeting following the Carla Emery workshop. Am I correct Stan?

-- Bingo1 (howe9@pop.shentel.net), June 08, 1999.


Look, all you can do is hedge your bets. Until two months ago, I lived around the Washington, D.C. area -- I felt that the odds were overwhelmingly poor. I now live on a thirty acre farm in Northwest Arkansas, with neighbors that are friendly, hard working, and relatively self sufficient regardless of Y2K -- I feel that the odds have improved dramatically.

I certainly can't guarantee that this is bulletproof against a "Milne 10" scenario, but I am confident that my bet is where it should be. And personally, I tend to think that Mad Max type scenarios are far more likely in the cities during the initial weeks of Y2K. Quite frankly, the idea that urban gangs would blaze a trail from LA or NYC to places like NW Arkansas is comical. And if they did, they would get their asses shot off, that I will guarantee.

(And Stan, I second Big Dog's motion: quit being a stooge for "Mr. Decker". I am not saying that he never brings up points to consider, but the reality is that his agenda seems more in line with that of a troll, and we sure have enough of those already wasting thread space.)

-- Jack (jsprat@eld.net), June 08, 1999.

Bingo 1,

Yes, I think quite a few people would like to discuss bugging out, caravaning, and refueling-resupplying along the way. Maybe some other things too. We'll see. I think this second get together is going to be a lot of fun. In fact, I'd like to see Big Dog chop wood and haul water. (laughing) The river is there and I'll bring a log or two for the grills. Someone else needs to bring the water pail and filter.

Sincerely, Stan Faryna

-- Stan Faryna (info@giglobal.com), June 08, 1999.


Got wood splitter?

-- Stan Faryna (info@giglobal.com), June 08, 1999.

This discussion has gotten interesting. In my opinion we are perhaps missing some key points however. In my previous commentary I touched upon the difficulty of getting people to agree. Our discussion here bears witness to that very thing. This is not about mad max, the postman, et al other end of the world scenarios. It is about how we could organize a like minded group of people. Unfortuntly anybody who takes any precautions is labeled as a nut case. Maybe so but what have you really lost by doing something? A couple of bucks and some time. One can be replaced, the other will pass whether we want it to or not.

Some comments that help illustrate the problem in organizing were alluded to by another poster, i.e. each according to their life style, etc. Therein lies the problem. It is challenging enough to integrate people into a group environment given no stress much less the kind of stressfull situation we are discussing here. This kind of situation will not be condusive to examining "how you feel" about something. Your feelings won't count for much then. It will be a simple case of what do we have to do to survive, feelings be damed. This will not be a time to be squemish in any way, shape, or form. Your life may depend upon how you respond or how you don't respond.

Somehow we all, I know I'm generalizing, seem to think that our values will somehow remain intact during a massive meltdown. I would like to think they will but having been on the other side of man's cruelty to man I tend to be a bit pessimistic.

I don't want to seem negative to the idea of "banding together" to help each other. But it will present a tremendous challenge to all that gather together. It is hard to sublimate your own thoughts and viewpoints and participate in a group environment. Hell I could have been an officer but I couldn't keep my mouth shut!! :)

It's one thing to form a like minded group to weather the upcoming event. It's entirely another to act as a cohesive unit when the SHTF. These are skills and a mind set that you don't get out of a book. They take practice, they take commitment and they take a willingness to act when the situation dictates. I submit that the remaining time left to everyone is insufficient to have a group such as we are discussing develop any kind of cohesiveness.

I want a bump in the road because I'm too old, too tired and too jaded to believe anymore in my fellow human beings inherent goodness. I don't want to use those old skills, I don't want to watch people die, and I don't want to watch this country destroy itself. This is not a game, this might get ugly and 99.9% of the population have no clue how ugly death and killing truly are.

just my jaded opinion...

Freelancer (will code for shushi :)

-- Freelancer (mercenary2000@yahoo.com), June 08, 1999.


If a Y2K impact 2 or 4 or .... is likely to go to 9 or 10 without stopping at GO (5, 6, 7, 8) then serious bugout Mad Max scenarios are more worth planning for than the other ones. I consider that view (which many of us hold) possible but not demonstrable.

-- BigDog

It is demonstable, see my posts in 'Polly's will be cause of fourth quarter panic'. The example is any living system. Complex and adaptive. It either works, or it fails stupendously. There are very, very few in-betweens.

Regards,

Will

-- Will Huett (willhuett@usa.net), June 08, 1999.


Just as our society is structured, the president(with body guards) to the vulnerable bum on the streets, if you are well prepared with a circle of family or friends (who are on the same page) and armed well, it seems to me those who are a part of their group with less resources would be involved in protocol. Sadam insane has not been taken out maybe for some fundamental reasons I have built up to here. Working for food may translate to packin' and shielding for food. An individual packin' does not pose a threat to the bulk of the others packin for obvious reasons. Even the thought of packin' automatic weapons for self promotion insures only those who come in tandem who have eyes planted in the back of their heads. Everyone must sleep too. Protocol is a natural condition for reptiles and for those who exercise their reptilian brain, along with other parts of their skull. Nobody, including the president can stop assassination attempts. That is why those people have concrete bunkers with steel doors and serious locks. To plan for the extreme you must prepare like an extremist. Layers of safety catches improves the outcome of survival. Items that support you like food and water must be inside each layer. A locked steel door can have a timber set to insure safety. Then there is ventilation. Hidden pipes to ventilate must be kept secret. Igniting freon will take out a whole community by Zapping the central nervous system. Nobody can survive every negative scenario without extremely well thought out planning. The natural tendency for others to embarrass or black sheep the extremists keep most well thought out and radically bent ideas from fruition. It may be post stress situations that lead to successful plans for group survival.

-- Feller (feller@wanna.help), June 08, 1999.

Stan,

In answer to your question, some of both. For every question I answer I also think of four or five more. Since my last post yesterday, I have put much more thought into this. Unfortunately, I will be unable to attend the June 19th get to together. I think it would be enjoyable.

Freelancer, basic training takes a disparate group and makes them into a cohesive team in about eight weeks. The psycological preparation is key to developing a team of any kind. While the basic training type of preparation is not desirable in our current society, developing a common set of goals begins the process. Someone then must pull the group along by keeping the group focused on the goals.

This has been the most interesting post I have come across on this forum for some time. I hope we can continue these over the next few days. Thanks.

-- Tom (nomail@nomail.com), June 09, 1999.


Will Huett mentioned the thread, "Polly's will be the cause of fourth quarter panic." So I went over and took a look. Below is a reformatted representation of the discussion between Will Huett and Flint:

Huett: I've seen many theoretical examples along the lines of IF A fails, then B might fail, and if fails, then C might fail, etc. And while there's nothing explicitly wrong with these sequences, in practice they don't seem to happen. Odd, isn't it? No, Flint it isn't odd at all. It is exactly what happens in highly organized and efficient complex systems. You misunderstand my analogy. Our system of systems is miraculously resilient.

Flint: There is a feedback mechanism, and so far it has worked fairly well. Whether it will be overwhelmed by the sheer magnitude of the y2k problems, I'm not convinced either way.

Huett: That is the question now isn't it? Being convinced either way is of no real import.

Flint: The harder you stretch that bungee cord, the more difficult it becomes to stretch it further. If our systems were as brittle as you believe, they'd be snapping all the time. We couldn't keep up.

Huett: Again, our systems are not brittle at least the greater system of systems is not. That being said, the point comes when they are not able to cope and then the collapse is sudden and severe and irreversible. Your bungee cord analogy is an example, eventually the cord snaps. It is forever changed by that event.

Flint: Your all-or-nothing position isn't based on past experience in any way.

Huett: Yes, in fact it is. Living systems. Life is an all or nothing proposition, Flint. Living systems either work or they don't. They handle all hardships and continue to function, or they collapse. That is my point regarding y2k. Nothing has ever presented itself to our complex system that remotely could have been systemically threatening... until now. That is why I prepare as a Doomer. I perceive that I will either not need my preps to any extent that justifies my expenditures, or I will need them desperately. You mistakenly assume that means I possess some certaintly of opinion, that assumption leads to the erroneous conclusion that I have lost objectivity. In point of fact I see all the picking of nits regarding why Doomers are irrationaly fearful is itself myopic. Our collective society is at this moment, either ok, or a dead man walking. It is beyond your ability or mine to know which.

Flint: OK, I accept what you've written. It sounds pretty good to me, although it does some real damage to our 1-10 scale. Basically, you're saying that if the system doesn't snap, then y2k will be pretty mild, a few inconveniences here and there, maybe some economic problems fairly short term, nothing we can't work through while maintaining our present lifestyle pretty much intact. However, if it does snap, the results are off the scale. Phase change, bigtime. On the whole, this model doesn't appeal to me as quite realistic, but what do I know? You may well be right. And if you are, the preparations most of us are making are moot. If a few weeks' worth isn't enough, a year's worth will be no better, and the few survivors will be living in caves and foraging for nuts and berries. A depressing thought.

Huett: Cheer up Flint! Collapse of the System of Systems wouldn't necessarily mean Mad Max and the Thunderdome globally. Preparations will make a difference, especially year plus. If we suffer System Death, then everything will become local. Would lots of people die? Yes. Would lots of areas disintegrate? Yes. Would lots of GIs die in spite of their best efforts? Yes. Would roving bands of trained mercenaries harvest sweet innocent homesteaders at their leisure? Yes. Will governments collapse with the ensuing civil war and the chaos associated with the destruction of civil order and means of exchange? Yes. But not everyone, Flint, and not everywhere. That is why our individual preparations are so vitally important. If the highly organized system we call modern civilization attains maximum entropy, then everything will become local. And not all localles will suffer the same fate. Enough will survive the chaotic period to rebuild. That is why our individual preparations are so vitally important. The more people that prepare for long term problems and the less people spend their time debating how long the trouble will be and what it will look like ( these are unknowns and unknowable ) the better off we will all be. One of the greatest seductions of y2k is the attempt to divine the outcome and prepare for it. This is treacherous ground because it is far too easy to fall in love with your opinion and then one is forced to spend inordinate amounts of time and energy defending it. This is especially tragic if there is no allowance for anything worse than what you think will happen. A better strategy is to allow some provision for long term rebuilding in the areas of food producion, power generation and knowledge preservation. (maybe as little as some seeds and tools and a couple of solar panels, doesn't have to break the bank)

-- Stan Faryna (info@giglobal.com), June 09, 1999.


Freelancer writes:

"In my previous commentary I touched upon the difficulty of getting people to agree. Our discussion here bears witness to that very thing ... Some comments that help illustrate the problem in organizing were alluded to by another poster, i.e. each according to their life style, etc. Therein lies the problem. It is challenging enough to integrate people into a group environment given no stress much less the kind of stressfull situation we are discussing here."

My initial response:

There has a great deal of emphasis on military methods and I suspect that is because quite a few people here have the actual benefit of a military experience and being a member of a military team (whether it is a unit or a platoon, etc.). Myself, I wonder if the same civilian methods of team building as used in the cutting-edge companies can be used before the rollover to get like-minded people to come to some agreements, take ownership in team work, and develop a team spirit. I emphasize that corporate team building may be more effective before the rollover, whereas a military model may be expedient in a crisis. Yet I also think there is room here for discussion of corporate organization in general and some of the "best practices" used in world class organizations to get things done. I might even suggest we consider the various advantages and disadvantages of the modern non-heirarchical organization.

Sincerely, Stan Faryna

-- Stan Faryna (info@giglobal.com), June 09, 1999.


Stan,

I agree. We must look at current methods for team building. What we may end up using is a synthesis of these methods.

-- Tom (nomail@nomail.com), June 09, 1999.


Static and Contigent Models

Two types of decision-making models, the static and contingent models, commonly occur in organizations. Static decision-making models involve task-oriented activities that find the best way to achieve objectives. Contingent models of decision-making feature a cycle of input, throughput, and output in which the output affects the input factored into the next cycle. Hence, a chain of decisions, each contingent on the input derived from the previous decision, influences the group's decision-making. Management consultants, for example, generally deal with complex problem-solving and work within highly contingent problem-solving models. Errors in problem-solving may yield disastrous errors in final recommendations to clients. Dialogic interaction between team members ensures that a system of checks and balances provides a safeguard against mistakes. By writing decisions and supporting data throughout the production cycle, the writing team can verify each others' work, engage in dialogue about the final document as it comes together, and make revisions as necessary.

Top Down Model

Traditional top-down models of management (the military, for example) assume that all knowledge critical to the organization is at the top levels of the hierarchy and that the leader(s) of the organization disseminate that knowledge on an as-needed basis. For employees of such organizations, this theoretically means simply accomplishing the tasks of the position as directed by managers. For example, writers working collaboratively in such organizations will find situations like Geoffrey Cross's case example of the Auldoest Insurance Company. The writers of the company's annual report noted hindered communication between key players in the collaboration due to hierarchical constraints that caused miscommunication and an ineffective and time-inefficient collaborative writing experience.

Top-down management structures are, in fact, practical in work environments where independent decision-making by lower level employees is not required (or desired). For example, the McDonald's Corporation has identified the most efficient and effective way to make french fries. Employees are trained to open a premeasured box of frozen potatoes, pour the contents of the box into the frying basket, submerge the basket in hot oil, press the preset timer button, and return when the beeper goes off. At no time is the employee required to make any decision that would interfere with the predetermined most efficient process.

Team-based model

The team-based management model assumes that all critical information is dispersed throughout the firm. Firm leaders have a key role as the coordinators of information although they may not be aware of the specific pieces of information critical to the project. Management consultants, for example, find this type of structure is especially important because individual employees have highly diverse backgrounds and specialized areas of expertise. This model is the most effective management model for organizations in which contingent problem-solving is important.

Copyright 1999 by G.I.Global (info@giglobal.com)

-- Stan Faryna (info@giglobal.com), June 09, 1999.


As we have all come to realize the actual impact of Y2K technology problems and the actual response of individuals and groups to those problems remains very much a mystery. In the fall out, unexpected problems are expected. Like-minded individuals (representing highly diverse backgrounds and specialized areas of expertise) that come together as a team (better if they do so as a high performance team) seem like they will be better able to meet the variety of challenges and work productively toward actual outcomes that are in their favor.

Sincerely, Stan Faryna

-- Stan Faryna (info@giglobal.com), June 09, 1999.


Will Huett,

I'd like a clearer understanding of your points. Namely, is the living system in question, human civilization, a nation, or a community? Or is it something else? The analogy is attractive, but the definition seems more complex and subtle than I can grasp-- if it is indeed a worthwhile analogy. It does not make sense to me that the whole of human civilization is likely to collapse under the strain of the worst that will come from the technology failures. We need a planet-buster of a meteorite, act of God, or some such to do the kind of damage that would put a stop to our system-replication. Help me to understand you.

Sincerely, Stan Faryna

-- Stan Faryna (info@giglobal.com), June 09, 1999.


Vic - So now we're comparing the 1770's to the 1990's?? There is no comparison. My guess is the militia groups of today are just a little more threatening to the general public than they were 220 years ago. Militia groups of today have access to Uzi's and AK47's and the lot. Militia groups of the 1770's had........well they had muskets.......

That was the point of my post Vic.........talk about a benighted poster that needs a picture drawn.....

Deano

-- Deano (deano@luvthebeach.com), June 09, 1999.


Freelancer wrote:

"Somehow we all, I know I'm generalizing, seem to think that our values will somehow remain intact during a massive meltdown. I would like to think they will but having been on the other side of man's cruelty to man I tend to be a bit pessimistic."

My initial response:

The other day, I had a good bit of a discussion about this with Bingo 1. IMHO, those who prepare themselves with good habits and don't muck up the graces that they receive will stand a better chance of having some character in a bad time. But I'll concede somewhat to your keen insight: the reality is that most people don't seek to develop such good habits and preserve their allotment of graces in good times, therefore they may not have much character now and less of it in a bad time. In fact, I am more concerned about the high maintenance people from the upper middle and upper class, their personalities (in a psychological sense) may breakdown under the duress of lost comforts and exposure to dangers. The poor and those who are down and out may be more stable as they manage to deal with the tough challenges of suffering, deprivation, and disappointment on a day to day basis.

Sincerely, Stan Faryna

-- Stan Faryna (info@giglobal.com), June 09, 1999.


Something to think about regarding the stability of personalities:

(From Milne's post)

For Goldbart, a clinical psychologist who works with clients from Silicon Valley, the Nasdaq has become an increasingly accurate barometer of prevailing emotional duress. With so many thousands of tech workers' dreams and demons handcuffed to the market by the golden promise of stock options, the market's mad swings have become their own, he says. "People come in, and they're suffering so much from the anxiety of it all they can't even work," says Goldbart, 46, co-director of the Money, Meaning, and Choices Institute in Kentfield, California. The malady has become so common, he coined an informal new name for it: ticker shock. Goldbart's not the only Bay Area counselor who's seen the symptoms. "When stock bubbles burst, people just unravel," says Jeff Lugerner, a psychologist with the Growth and Leadership Center in Mountain View, California, which specializes in corporate psychology.

-- Stan Faryna (info@giglobal.com), June 09, 1999.


This is by far the most interesting thread I have read on this site in weeks - I can't believe that no one has mentioned the most intriguing and thought-provoking Y2K novel ever published: "Patroits: Surving the Coming Collapse" by James Wesley Rawles. Some amazon.com info:

Paperback - 352 pages (October 1998) Huntington House Pub; ISBN: 156384155X Amazon.com Sales Rank: 2,000 Avg. Customer Review: [4.5 out of 5 stars] From an on-line review: It is a novel about a devastating socioeconomic collapse in the near future. It has been described as "a survival manual fairly neatly dressed as fiction." Although it is fast-paced, it includes so many useful details that most people find themselves taking notes as they read it. It doesn't just describe what might happen, it explains exactly how to prepare for it. Most readers comment that they end up reading it twice: The first time through for enjoyment, and the second time with a yellow highlighting pen in hand.

This is not your typical novel. It even has appendices, (They are available on-line--see URL, below.) An early draft edition of the novel was formerly available as shareware, via the Internet. With more than 80,000 downloads, it was by far the most popular novel ever on the Internet.

(Bill speaking again) This novel is very, very applicable to the discussion at hand. It shows in great detail the organization, leadership and defense tactics of a "survivalist retreat". There are many details that I have used in my prep activities.

I would be very interested in hearing your evaluation of the real-life application of the survivalist ideas he espouses in this "novel".

-- Bill (Chicago519@aol.com), June 09, 1999.


Concepts, Deano, concepts.

-- Vic (Rdrunner@internetwork.net), June 09, 1999.

Stan,

It never got past the internet talk stage for all the reasons I cited in my post. That really surprized us as we had a lot to offer but it seems that people just think they can "bug out" at the last minute with no place to go and no preparations made in advance. It will be a rude awakening for a lot of people if it does go bad in the cities and they find that they have not prepared a place to bug out to.

Not expecting it to go Mad Max but feel relatively safe with preparations and a location that nobody is going to walk (or drive)to in the snow and O* temperatures,well off the main highways with only farms and woods around for miles and mainly old time farmers, Mennonites and Amish.

I do wonder tho when I read all these posts about bugging out! Either they are well trained survivalists or very naive.

-- y2klady2 (y2klady2@country.com), June 09, 1999.


Stan:

Thanks for all your posts --- I read them all.

Personally, I have tried to involve my church and community since 1/99, little movement, some "We should look at it", but in short its just not working in my area. As far as regulars at this site, the closest one (geograhically) that I'm aware of is about 100 miles away.

I agree totally with your basic premise. Fortunately I have lived in the same rural house for 18 years. Neighbors DO/HAVE helped each other. I don't see how it will come together until crisis time --- people (most) just won't do it. For "newcomers" to an area --- they better work extra hard to be as familiar/friendly as possible with their new neighbors. And of course in larger cities hopefully the GIs could work together. Suggestions on that have been good, so I'll leave that to those who have such options. Even 1 or 2 famolies working together or ABLE to work together if necessary is a big help, and I do have that.

Summary: It is extremely important to form "working groups" or at least "potential" working groups. Size ans membership will depend on where you live.

In very rural cases with a lot of DGIs, it has to be fairly small and informal. Also being friends with the local Midinites and Amish helps.

-- Jon Johnson (narnia4@usa.net), June 09, 1999.


Stan,

It is my analysis that the globally interconnected technological culture that we swim in today is in fact a complex adaptive system. It is almost alive. Indeed it demonstrates many characteristics of a living organism, it responds to stimuli and adapts to a changing environment. Our individual needs and desires are met with fantastic efficiency. The efforts of all of us go into this without our knowing the outcome or oftimes even that we are affecting one another. The essay called I, Pencil does a marvelous job of illustrating this complexity.

http://www.fee.org/about/ipencil.html

I have studied y2k since 97, as time went by I slowly became more aware of this staggering complexity. Like a fish that is unaware of the water in which it swims, so are we unaware of the magical machine of wish fulfillment that is our modern world. All that we need is there for the having.

The system works, it adapts to changing needs and desires, and it handles the events that threaten it efficiently. It has grown and thrived and works without conscious control just as you don't have to think about your heart beating or whether the proper amount of glycogen is converted to glucose while you are playing raquetball. This is precisely like any high-order life form.

The complexity that is a living organism either works, or fails. I now suspect that the complex global system may very likely behave the same way. Either this problem will be handled by the "organism" or it will be beyond it's capability, and the system will fail.

When I say the system will die, I am talking about this wondrous 'machine' that provides for our needs. That is TEOTWAWKI. Then we will back in the world of our immediate location. No more will the unseen millions of other "cells" be able to interact with us on the same scale. The emergent phenomenon that is all the interconnected people creating this magical world will be broken. The critical mass for this emergent event will be lost.

The pollys argue that shit happens all the time and the systems still work. They are correct.

The doomers say yeah, but nothing like this has happened before and it could get real bad. They are also correct.

Both of these views are consistent with living organisms. They handle everything that they are capable of and what they can't handle destroys them. Often, it is a VERY small part of the organism that fails and yet because of the complexity of the creature, all the properly funcioning parts die too.

It is possible that the "organism" will just get real sick, but not die. This is at the heart of most people's attempts to come to terms with y2k. This is natural, because we get sick. What I have been thinking of lately is how most threats to a living organism are below the threshold of awareness. We are attacked thousands of times a day and we never know it. Lots of other times things happen that the complex adaptive system cannot handle ( head-on collisions, 45 slugs, blocked coronary arteries, etc. ) and we die. In between are the things that make us ill. This is really a very small subset of all the things that can happen to us, but we tend to think that it is a LARGE part of what happens. Consequently most discussion of y2k really revolves around speculation about how ill we will become.

Personally, my opinion is that y2k poses the only threat to this emerging global complexity ever. And since complex systems fail stupendously when they go, preparation is the only sane choice.

I don't know if all this rambling answered your question or not! :)

Regards,

Will

-- Will Huett (willhuett@usa.net), June 09, 1999.


Y2KLady,

Short answer to your question: I was naive. Maybe, I still am. Help!

Sincerely, Stan Faryna

-- Stan Faryna (info@giglobal.com), June 09, 1999.


Jon,

It sounds like you are in a good place. I sure wish that I had Amish-Menonite neighbors!

Sincerely, Stan Faryna

-- Stan Faryna (info@giglobal.com), June 09, 1999.


It has been observed by several contributors to this discussion the team model as practiced by successfull companys would be perhaps be relevent. I can perhaps comment on this team concept since I am involved in just such a company that utilizes this approach.

The team model that is utlized is one that assumes tht all members of the organization are in agreement with the goals, both tacticle and strategic, as stated by the company. This sounds straight forward at it's first reading. However the result is sometimes chaotic at worst and downright humorous at times. Bear in mind that this is a company with engineers, programmers, skilled technicians, admin. staff, etc.

So when the team approach is utilized for lets say a PC installation and setup team that supports 10,000 people is can get interesting. The stated goal is to deliver a pc to the end users desk that is setup and ready to tie into the company intranet. Now the technician hears the message that the pc must have the correct OS and applications installed. The support admin. hears that the information required from the end user must contain specific data points. The procurement person hears that the pc must meet certain criteria vis a vis disc drive size, memory, etc. So now each person on this team is "hearing" different requirements when the stated goal was merely to put a functional pc on the user desk. The team concept plays out in this example of each person having a specific skill/task to contribute. So what is missing here? L-e-a-d-e-r-s-h-i-p!!!

What happens in reality is that each person does their function and assumes, there's that word again, that the other team member is doing their's. Somebody has to be in charge to make sure this is true and end results produce the desired goal. I have seen this in action and while the concept is good is can produce unexpected results if not monitored and ineffieciences corrected. It can produce chaotic effects when the team members begin to blame each other for not "doing your job" etc. It also allows those who take the opportunity to "hide" among a team and not carry their share of the work. The team gets blamed, "it's the teams fault", it's never the individuals fault and thus responsibility by the individual is avoided.

When a team however has a strong leadership it can produce exceptional results. People are motivated to excell, they are proud of what they accomplish and a sense of a job well done prevades the team. Believe it or not I have tried the "hands off" tyle of team leadership and the more proactive "hands on" style and the hands on style has produced results far beyond everyones expectations. I do not consider myself to be an exceptional leader by any stretch. I have been lucky that I was able to communicate to my teams what our goals and objectives were and to gain their support in meeting them. But in other cases no matter what I tried I could not get a team to work together and we failed totally. That happens more than you think in a large corporate environment.

So what seems to work here is perhaps an amalgamation of a top-down management style with a managed team style. The team has everyone contributing ideas, developing strategies, etc. that support the top managements strategic goals. But the key here seems to be that the goals must be reachable, they must resonate with the people, and the teams must take responsibility for their performance. Finally there has to be someone who has a leadership role on the team. Decisions have to be made as to which path to choose when several are visible. Taking responsibility for that decision pushes the "leader" to the forefront and places them under the microscope of upper management. I can assure you that the management spotlight can burn very hot when you are the focus of it's beam.

So I would conclude that it is possible to build a hybrid team to address the issues raised in this discussion. It takes time, something we are growing short of, and it can be very, very frustrating. If we are able to articulate the desired goal and get folks to agree to play their parts we can be successfull. If not then the team can degenerate into a group of individuals that can impede progress through their inability to agree or act on anything. Therefore the argument could come full circle that the selection of a "team leader" will determine the sucess or failure of that team more than any other factor. Being the leader isolates you sometimes, it can cause doubts about your decisions, it can impact peoples lives dramaticly. But I submit that without someone to keep the goals in sight and to quantify the progress then little of usefull substance may be accomplished.

-- Freelancer (mercenary2000@yahoo.com), June 09, 1999.


reposted from http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=000w3d

I'm not quite sure how I was made to seem to be a radical leader of a raggedy post apocalyptic community (I am imagining a rickety old wagon from the pioneer days... with wide-wobbling wheels), but if you could just point out the general direction of the wobbly wagon tracks, I might just find my way from there. (laughing) I am hardly one to pontificate on pioneering (some say, self-sufficiency), homesteading (some say, self-reliance), or how to survive in a Mad Max world. I am much more suited and satisfied with today's technology and economy. As such, I do have an strong emotional response at the thought of a 10. This response might be expressed, politely, like this: "God, no! Not 10!"

I think that the adventure of 10 may have appeal to some... safely in the imagination of that 10 which has been decontextualized. I do now imagine that some people may mistake a 10 as an adventure full of promises-- including the promise to be an end of the hum drum-ness of ordinary and apparently meaningless struggles or the constant dulling of their spirit and disappointment of their hopes. I'd imagine that their terror is diluted with misguided enthusiasm. Would Ulysseus had boasted his name to the Cyclops if he'd foreseen the consequences? I sincerely doubt it. I do not take a 10 as some plaything which serves my pleasure to imagine.

At the same time, the decontextualized 10 has some purpose for our speculation and this may include mentally exploring possibilities of how to deal with it-- if it happens and we have resources enough to attempt to meet various challenges (however insignificant such preps may be in terms of the fullness of the meaning of a 10). More than this very exercise in imagination, such speculation may lead us to an re-evaluation of personal preparations. You can stock the shelves of your pantry all you want (no one is going to stop you), but as I have considered elsewhere, a prudent balance should be struck between what you spend on preps and how much money you have on hand for hard times.

I imagine some people will prepare to weather a decontextualized 10 in their city or suburban home and this may be a fallacy (unless the hand of God guarantees their safety) that makes them unready for possible economic failures: inflation or deflation, unemployment, market instability, etc. So I was surprised that Mr. Decker missed my point on this in the 10 thread. But I'm sure that he would be the first to agree that economic considerations do weigh in when it comes to preparing for Y2K. Mr. Decker, himself, strongly recommends a similar course minus the dehydrated canned foods, non-hybrid seeds, and bug out bags.

I admit to the charges (not yet made, I think) that I did welcome and encourage readers of the 10 thread to imagine how they might make the attempt to face a post-apocalyptic world with whatever virtue and grace they could muster. I also welcomed and encouraged the American readers to imagine that whatever happens that they would be Americans, still, and should endeavor to hold high the torch of freedom and the highest ideals-- where ever they might stand together and no matter the circumstances. In fact, I had hoped to encourage them not to lay down and die should the terrible unfold. In that thread, I've seen glimpses of the heroic splendor of the human spirit shining through the thoughtfulness and imaginations of those who dared to think aloud.

Sincerely, Stan Faryna

-- Stan Faryna (info@giglobal.com), June 10, 1999.


Shall we continue with this thread?

-- Stan Faryna (info@giglobal.com), June 10, 1999.

I live 10 miles from a 100K population in a PUD with a high proportion of retired neighbors and a high maintenance association. We have about 150 families on 640 acres, with 100 of the families (including mine) crammed into 25 acres of flat community property, and the remaining families controlling the rest, which is mostly rugged vertical acrage. A couple of families here have enough land to feed us all, if they would be willing to co-operate. I don't have any family members or neighbors that really GI. Being a stay at home mom, what things I buy are tolerated because I'm being humored.

All on my own, working only since I "clicked" this January, I've brought my family preparedness to this point where further individual preparation seems fairly pointless. I'm looking for ideas of ways to prepare my neighborhood, even without their knowing, since they are fairly hostile to discussing it at this point. Here are some of my ideas.

For only $100 I could buy 50 or more picnic torches, and a small amount of fuel at least enough to get some solidarity going for us. These could be used by neighbors on sentry duty around the perimeter of the neighborhood, in a show of solidarity.

Since we don't all know each other, a cheap piece of identifying apparel, such as a certain color bandana would help us to know who belongs here. I easily purchased a bolt of fabric from which such bandanas can be made.

I've purchased 10 storm whistles. I got a small amount at first in order to see if they're worth the high price. They do seem to be. It's a nice, compact & easy to store item. Battery operated megaphones would be another good item to have on hand. At first, I think I'll just get ones for me and for my husband. It's hard to spend money on things such as this when you're certain you won't use it if Y2K is a dud, especially when your family is hostile to the making of preparations. I got eight walkie-talkies for the three of us in my family, rationalizing them as three for the bugout bags, one for each car and one for each body. I'd really like everybody in the neighborhood to have one. If I were single this is what I would spend my money on at this time.

I've got non-hybrid seeds enough to supposedly feed several families. Each vendor said so, and I've gotten from three so far, on the theory that I could open some of these vacuum packed #10 cans and find stones inside. That's not enough to feed the whole neighborhood, but buying more would be getting into the realm of throwing away money in case of a non-event.

I'm collecting a library of how-to books that I won't have time to even look at until the after times. Will I or will anyone have time to read them then? I rationalize these as homeschooling books, which we have been doing all along.

I've taken up a new hobby, revolving around antiques. We now have decorator accents around the house such as a spinning wheel, treadle sewing machine, sad iron book ends, portable candle holders, grain mill, lots of baskets.

I purchased a huge blueprint of an aerial photograph of the neighborhood, taken over twenty years ago, before any of the homes were built. I had this framed, thinking it would make a good map in a command center for strategic defense discussions. I plan to buy or make some stickers to represent various bits of infrastructure such as latrines, outhouses, creeks, sentry posts, water storage pits... For now, I'm just calling it "Art."

I've taken three Red Cross courses, a FEMA online class, and am studying for a ham license. I think I'll also start to hang out with some local midwives.

I think it would be a good idea to make up a list of things to inventory, as soon as a critical mass of opinion would allow a meeting to take place. Generators, guns, rain barrels. I've been thinking I might get a mimeograph machine.

I've ordered a few hundred copies of the Utne Reader guide and I'm addressing envelopes and stuffing them... drafting a letter for possible inclusion, and trying to decide whether or not to send them anonymously.

If only it were really possible to get through to the neighbors. We could be so much better prepared, at almost no cost. We even have a clubhouse that we could stock with a fireplace insert. If every family stocked a cord of wood, we could have ourselves a community warming house. Anyone who wanted to warm up and catch up on happenings could just come on over with a log or two.

What other ideas do people have along these lines? Most appreciated would be things that could be done at little or no cost, or that would involve buying things that could be easily sold if I'm wrong about TEOTWAWKI.

I'm a first time poster on this forum. Here's what I've been up to, this year: http://www.lacarte.org/y2k

-- Dancr (minddancr@aol.com), June 11, 1999.


Good post, Dancr; welcome!

-- Ashton & Leska in Cascadia (allaha@earthlink.net), June 11, 1999.

When I saw this thread, I asked my daughter (14) the question. Her answer was immediate and disturbingly straightforward.

Whatever it takes to survive. Period.

I asked her some very blunt questions, challenging her with some pretty nasty situations. Same thing.

I'm proud of that girl. I hope the need never arises.

-- Jon Williamson (pssomerville@sprintmail.com), June 11, 1999.


Dancr - I just added your preps to my list of To-Do. Absolutely incredible - much of what you have done - so have I, the others have been rolling around my brain in disorganized fashion. I now have some more direction and purpose. thanks for your post.

justme

-- justme (not@home.com), June 11, 1999.


Dancr -- you are a true heroine. Great post and already altering some prep plans as a result. Thanx!

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), June 11, 1999.

Jon-

Having read the 100+ posts on this thread, I'd have to say that yours was by far the most succinct (and closest to my own) answer of them all.

Then, as now, surviving one day at a time (because that is all we have) Linda

-- newbiebutnodummy (Linda@home.com), June 11, 1999.


Dancr,

It seems to me that you have thought things through before joining us. That's great. Keep up the good work and keep on posting.

Sincerely, Stan Faryna

-- Stan Faryna (info@giglobal.com), June 13, 1999.


DEANO, If(when)the banking system collapses,will you still deride militias of freedom loving people?Do you view anyone with a strongly held opinion that differs from you as crazy?as Ghandi said;"the slave owners victory is complete when the slave takes pride in his chains."

-- zoobie (zoobiezoob@yahoo.com), June 24, 1999.

zoobie,

Are we talking about groups of 'freedom loving people' with no laws and are allowed to carry around loaded weapons? Gee.......let me think....

Yep, sounds a little crazy, but that's just little ol' naive me........

Care to explain to me why you think it would be OK for these individuals to rome the streets and proclaim themselves in charge if something were to happen?? Isn't that how militia's work?? They pretty much just take control, right? Yeah, those are the guys I want in charge.

One more question professor zoobiezoob - what happens if 2 or 3 (different) militia groups decide THEY want to run the local show? What happens then? The one with the biggest gun......the fastest draw?? I don't think they'll sit down and take a vote over tea and crumpets, do you??

It's beginning to sound like paradise to me.......

Geez, I feel safer already...........

Deano

-- Deano (deano@luvthebeach.com), June 24, 1999.


wow,deano,sounds like you need to prepair,and come to terms with the fact that there are things over which you will have no power,such as,the complete collapse of banking,and militias in a post banking collapse.scares me.And as reasurance we get shills like you.

-- zoobie (zoobiezoob@yahoo.com), June 25, 1999.

Beano,

Watch any good Westerns lately?

Your Pal, Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), June 25, 1999.


zoobie

I would have to do those things if I were like you. I thank GOD everyday I am not.

Ray

Go out and buy more beans man!!! You'll need'em..........right bigboy??

Deano

-- Deano (deano@luvthebeach.com), June 25, 1999.


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