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hi snyder,

i started a new thread as your original post is now in the archives under uncategorized. i feel that this is an important issue... particularly considering how the government is planning to incorporate the gps system into their contingency plans.

this is the question you posed:

That is my question. That,and should telecoms and utilities figure satellite synchronization loss into contingency planning?

end of query

the gps 'better' be compliant... the utilities are certainly banking on the gps being compliant and they certainly are factoring them into their contingency planning. but i don't think that they are looking at it from the same perspective that you are. read below:

on this page all information from the nrec public access data bank

ftp://www.nerc.com/pub/sys/all_updl/docs/ _________________________________________________________ this from the report created 2/5/1999

addresses the presidents council on y2k has begun preliminary planning of a communications center for operation during critical y2k periods.this center would have interfaces to all critical industry sectors, including electricity. this center would be able to provide rapid dissemination of information from advanced time zones from around the world and would coordinate timely information exchange between industries, the center might also be able to direct emergency response teams, if that became appropriate.

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this from the report created may 20, 1999 titled: regional coordinators teleconference minutes [dated march 25 1998[error s/b 1999]

under section titled 'drills'

the y2k contingency planning task force has recommended the use of a tmi voice satellite voice system as the preferred back up for security coordinator communications. nerc is arranging terms for a purchase of these systems by security coordainators. a dedicated channel will be leased from tmi for the period december 1999 through march 2000 for security coordinator back up communications. the satellite systems are to be deployed initially from july 1999 through march 2000. after that, nerc will evaluate the suitability of satellite systems as a continuing back up to the phone system.

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i don't know about anyone else reading this... but i am of the opinion that before one uses gps as a 'back up' sytem it would certainly seem prudent to ascertain whether or not it will function.

oh, well, the 'good' news is that we should find out if it will in august... that will give us 4 'whole' months to come up with something else...

-- Anonymous, June 06, 1999

Answers

Actually the question should be how important is GPS on a second by second basis. The answer is not very. In example: In the WSCC (i.e. the Western Grid) the CA. ISO is the official time keeper. A utility doesn't have to correct it's time error unless it's off by + or - 2 seconds to their standard. When you realize that (good) GPS clocks don't loose their synch even if their off satellite time by as much as 500 microseconds for a week that should tell you something. You can down load a program and get the time in your home PC to be more accuarate than 2 seconds quite easily. If you have a good quality electric watch it'll be that accurate.

-- Anonymous, June 07, 1999

Aren't we supposed to get some serious solar flares in January that can easily knock out the GPS system? I understand that the solar storm is supposed to be especially bad this time around (it happens every 11 years), and we are far more satellite dependant as it is, as opposed to 11 years ago (though that one too, caused some problems).

-- Anonymous, June 07, 1999

In response to the question of how important GPS is second to second, I have three thoughts:

First, do we have any information at all as to the impact of thousands of GPS receivers suddenly receiving no signal over an extended period of time? This would be a very large "common" failure that would be system wide throughout the grid and throughout telecommunications.

Second, do we have an accurate inventory throughout the grid of all of the GPS receivers and an actual contingency plan for replacing their function manually in the event of a problem? That is all I am suggesting we do. This requires a little more thought that I have heard so far from anyone. People suggest using the Internet. The Internet is based upon phone companies. For the reasons stated below, telecommunications are also relied upon GPS, and thus so is the Internet. It would be subject to the same common failure.

Finally, I do not know whether second to second is as important as day-to-day or week to week. I gave a year 2000 talk to a group of electrical engineers. I sat with an electrical engineer who worked for a phone company. He indicated that telephone companies do rely on GPS for synchronization. He said that there are backup clocks in the system but that they are not accurate enough by themselves to do the job. He said the less expensive systems would begin to get out of sync after eight hours. He said the more expensive systems would get out of sync after a week. He said the consequence of getting out of sync was static. He said that data communications would be lost first and then voice communications. The engineer said that the telecoms formerly synchronized using land lines. However, he said that equipment had been removed and as things stood now, they could not do so. My understanding is that the loss of telecommunications would result in the loss of SCADA systems.

It is admitted by the military that the GPS ground systems are not currently compliant, and that there is a billion dollar project underway to rewrite the software. The current schedule is to deliver the software for testing in September.

This fact alone justifies our devoting more resources to investigating and planning for the impact of loss of GPS to utilities and telecoms. Further, until there is some demonstrable evidence that there has been a quality assessment done of embedded systems in satellites, there is a second reason for contingency planning the loss of GPS.

The Titanic had a contingency plan. It was apparently too vague and to little practiced to do sufficient good. I am simply suggesting that we do not assume that GPS could not sink, given the admissions that it is leaky, and the questions as to whether our caulk will work.

Snyder Gokey

-- Anonymous, June 09, 1999

In reading the NERC reports referred to in Bonnie's "April 9 NERC Drill Summary and Regional Summaries (1999-06-08)" I finally caught a 2X4 between the eyes. The only two national drills the power industry is doing ARE directed towards contingency planning for the loss of telecoms. (Of course, that is not the whole solution regarding synchronization of the grid, but would fill in for many other functions of a critical vendor if successful, and would partly fill in for loss of some telecoms due to loss of synchronization.)

-- Anonymous, June 10, 1999