Being Prepared. That is the goal of most people that submit to this board but it does bring up a unique question. To whit "just because I prepare, does that mean I will survive? Will just the strong survive? Sometimes its just a matter of being lucky. Just because I have a 6 month supply of food and water in my house doesn't mean survival is guarrenteed. There are too many factors to consider, too many people not preparing. I was just wondering.

-- y2k dave (xsdaa111@hotmail.com), June 06, 1999

Answers

Short answer: no but it increases your chances A WHOLE BUNCH!. Kind of like using seatbelts in cars, even you if use them all of the time, you still might die in a car accident, but they improve your chances. Preparing gives you more options to choose different actions than a person that does not prepare. You might survive in any case, but preparing will make it easier and improve your life span. Those that did survive the Baatan Death March aged about 10 years physiologically from the event, and died sooner than those that did not have that happen to them. Just because you have 10 cords of wood and a wood burning stove, doens't mean you can't die of hyothemia if you run out on a frozen lake to retrieve a goose you just shot, break through the ice and freeze to death.

-- Ken Seger (kenseger@earthlink.net), June 06, 1999.

Sorry, Dave. Reality has never been about guarantees.

With the help of the people on this forum, Mrs. Rimmer and I have worked pretty hard this last year to increase our chances of comfortably surviving mild to moderate disruptions. We didn't do this because anyone gave us a guarantee.

We do this because we believe there is a non-zero risk that such disruptions could occur where we live. We do this because we believe we have the power within ourselves to face such disruptions head-on. We do this to face our fears.

We are prepared for shortages of electricity, food, water, fuel, etc. We are prepared to survive mild to moderate disruptions in the supply of such items. We will be able to get by for several months if need be. But we are also prepared for nothing at all to happen.

But we are NOT prepared for total social breakdown. We are not prepared for nuclear war. We are not prepared for bioterrorism. We are not prepared to be struck by lightning. We are not prepared to die in an auto accident. We are not prepared for the suspension of the constitution. We are not prepared to die from cancer.

Threats abound and survival is never guaranteed. It's all about assessing risk and improving your odds against threats you can do something about. In the end, I'm afraid, it's a fool's bet. You are going to die. I am going to die. Everyone reading these words will be dead within a hundred years. But just because death is inevitable doesn't mean I have to be in a big hurry to get there. Frankly, I've got several strategies for delaying that journey until the last possible moment.

So we prepare as a way to survive for a few more trips around the sun.

Wearing your seat beat does not guarantee that you will survive an auto accident but it's pretty clear at this point that doing so increases your odds. You don't fasten that belt each time you get in because you expect to be in an accident. You fasten it to improve you odds of surviving an event with a non-zero probability.

Preparing does not guarantee survival. Neither does the lack of preparing guarantee death. If you hedge your bets and play the odds, you'll stand a better chance than those who don't. That's the best you can offer yourself and you'll find that it's far more effective to depend upon yourself than on others.

-- Arnie Rimmer (Arnie_Rimmer@usa.net), June 06, 1999.

Preps will help you cope with the known and predictable. You can't plan and prep for the unknown and unpredictable. That's where you need luck.

A common example is seen every day, although not necessarily everywhere. Basic training helps a soldier cope with the demands of soldiering. AIT, also known as combat training, helps a soldier cope with the demands of combat. Nothing can prepare anybody for that first moment under fire. The lucky survive. The unlucky don't.

You could be as well prepared as Milne, et al, claim, and still "slip in the tub," and die.

Prepare, but keep your wits about you. Increase your odds.

Good luck.

-- LP (soldog@hotmail.com), June 06, 1999.

Who was it on this forum that coined the phrase, "It's not about the odds, it's about the stakes"? One of my favorite Yourdon forum quotes...

-- RUOK (RUOK@yesiam.com), June 06, 1999.

If it turns ugly then being prepare will give you a fighting chance. IMHO there is a real potential for famine in pockets of the USA, people who are starving will do ANYTHING for food - it will not be pretty. Don't be one of those people.

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), June 06, 1999.

Another post I appreciated regarding amount of preparations was "How long do you want to survive?"

If starvation develops, then mass frenzy will prevail among those most desperate to survive. Others will give up and die. Who will bury the dead? Who will eat the dead?

Sometimes I have difficulty accepting that this amazing period of American prosperity will end with a horrendous crash, yet I press onward ignoring the smirks and mocks of DGIs and watch for special sales and discounts on merchandise which will be difficult to obtain when JIT supply lines fail.

-- Randolph (dinosaur@williams-net.com), June 07, 1999.

Hey a freind of mine once told me " Everybody wants to go to heaven, but nobody wants to die". Prepare,Daryll

-- Daryll Smallwood (twinck@wfeca.net), June 07, 1999.

"who will eat the dead"!!LOL!!why,paul davis,of course!!

-- zoobie (zoobiezoob@yahoo.com), June 07, 1999.

RUOK,

The quote was from Ed Yourdon's last testimony to Bennett's committee. It has been widely reported by now, so should be easy to get. I think it's been posted here, too.

-- LP (soldog@hotmail.com), June 07, 1999.

No, preparation is not always equivalent to survival. I could prepare for a worst case (20+ year TEOTWAWKI), only to be hit by a stray bullet (or drunk driver) just as I am loading the last of my groceries into my (theoretical) Hummer.

Will preparation increase the odds of survival (not to mention comfort) of my loved ones in most disaster scenarios? Yes.

-- Mad Monk (madmonk@hawaiian.net), June 07, 1999.