i copied the following text from dr. yardeni's website. this is just one of the many factors that, when, they are added together, don't add up to why there are so many 'happy face' reports. these reports are generated by the pr departments of government and industry.

this is what the geeks are saying. check out the figures that show the % of errors experienced in 'y2k ready' commercial software(28%)

text:

survey says i.t. crowd forsees y2k crisis

87% see global trouble. the information technology association of america claims to be "the only trade association representing the broad spectrum of the world leading u.s. information technology(it) industry." (itaa)

itaa includes over 11,000 direct and affiliate members"from america's largest corporations to the entrepreneurs building the blockbuster it companies of the future."

on january 20, 1999, the itaa issued a press release describing the y2k poll conducted by the organization of its members during december of 1998. the press release put a rather positive spin on the findings. under closer inspection, there was plenty of material suggesting that a negative spin is more accurate. even the upbeat press release noted

87% of the survey respondents said that the year 2000 problem is a crisis for the nation and the world. 52% think the millenium bug will hurt their companies; only 29% disagree with this notion. over one third said the bug has already started to bite, triggering failures under actual operating conditions. of those reporting specific failures, these included data exchange errors(34%), accounting errors. (27 %), errors in "y2k ready" commercial software(28%), errors in tested software causing rework(25%), database file corruption(21%), and computer crashes(18%). in test mode 71% of the respondents are finding failures.

again, itaa issued a press release with this startling information. why didn't the press report the story? this is a very credible organization. why is there so much public optimism about y2k, when the "insiders" are so pessimistic? I don't have the answers, just the questions.

unvalidated vendors. the press release also observed that "the survey seemed to generate questions about how agressively companies are persuing the contingency-planning process. although 44% said they will stop doing business with companies found to be non-compliant, only 33% said they would actually visit suppliers to ascertain their y2k status.

_never in human history have so many humans blindly trusted that so many other humans won't screw up._

end of text

this is not industry specific... this is across the board. we can't shut down the telecom industry in order to run tests, we can't shut down the power industry in order to run tests. i call this flying blind.

the it industry 'opinion' doesn't warrant any of the undue optimism we see bandied about in the press today.

so those of you who ask..."will the power stay on?" ask those who answer," how do you define 'on'?"

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-- Anonymous, June 05, 1999

Answers

On the subject of yogurt depth, I just got back from a trip to Venezuela. Reality drill in third world business operations. Their government has reported that they are drastically behind in the Y2K work that is needed to insure that their mission critical services will be ready. Other things like, refugees from Columbia, mergers of big oil companies resulting in large layoffs, high under-employment, and low oil prices are currently impacting their ability to deal with Y2K. In Venezuela their middle class professionals (engineers, business owners, technical specialists, doctors, etc ) live in homes and apartments that must be protected by, 10 foot walls, metal gates and private armed security forces. By-the-way, Venezuela is considered one of the top tier countries of the so-called third world. Throw in a little Y2K oops and what do you get??

As has been stated in this forum, Venezuela is a major supplier of oil to the USA. This oil is heavy crude, light crude and oil- emulsion. It is used by electric utilities to generate electricity. Anyone thinking the Y2K response situation in the USA in any way models the situation in the rest of the world needs to get out and see what the rest of the world is really like.

-- Anonymous, June 07, 1999