Boy I knew that would get you in here :)
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BUSINESSES ARE OUT OF TOUCH AS Y2K NEARS: A Dail committee has been urged by the director of the first Irish documentary on the Y2K problem to introduce "emergency measures" to cope with the failure of Small & Medium Size Enterprises (SMEs) to tackle the Millenium Bug. The results of a recent Enterprise Ireland survey on the level of preparedness for Y2K by SMEs was described by Esperanza producer/director, Ronan Tynan, as a "devastating indictment" of the software industry at a special hearing on Y2K held by the Dail Committee on Enterprise and Employment last week.
The survey's conclusions found that SMEs were completely out of touch, "firmly believing the computer industry will sort the problem out".
================
Here it is. The never ending list of countries that are floundering.
All the Pollyannas intone that things are going 'so' well. Bullshit.
Yesterday we heard that even Canada, widly touted as being in the vanguard, is predictably slipping its milestones. Now we hear that Ireland is completely out of touch.
Its really very funny, you know. All the ASSHOLE Pollyannas proclaiming 'success' becuase Ed Yourdon wishes to depart the public scene. And report after report showing the devastatingly BAD state of global affairs. Last week, it was revealed that the source of 17% of our OIL is toast, Venezuela. Yesterday we hear about Iran needing over a billion dollars and they have not yet begun. Italy has only just begun. Russia has done nothing. China is kaput. Japan, shrimp toast.
As a matter of fact there is NOT ONE contry on the face of the earth that is even in the BALLPARK of compliance, and yet, Lo and Behold, the pollyannas proclaim that things will be OK.
It is a testimony to the stupidity of Pollyannas that they can even rear their ugly heads and post here.
No evidence will sway an asshole like brock. No facts will change the opinion of a world class moron like pee Wee Sherman. And, the daily and incessant FLOOD of reports showing country after country that is woefully underprepared will not induce the likes of an egan or echristi or dechert to modify their opinion.
And then there is the newly elevated super Ass mcisaac. He thinks that proclaiming one industry close to compliant that that has ANYTHING at all to do with holding the economy afloat on the global Titanic..
It's really very simple. There is not one Fortune 500 company that is done. Not one Oil Co. Not one Major Airport or Airline, Not one
electric Utility. Not one major hospital.
They should have been popping up like mushrooms after a spring rain on the bell curve of compliance. Yet, not one is ready.
They ALL said they would be ready six months ago leaving a full year for testing. And NONE of them are there. NONE.
And now Ireland.
C'mon pollyannas. I'll give you your chance. I'm sure that it stands to reason that before an industry can be complinat, that at least PART of it must be compliant. So name five major airports that are remdiated, tested and back in production. C'mon you blathering morons. Laguardia? Kennedy? LAX? Logan? EWR? O'hare? Atlanta? C'mon morons. Name ONE.
You are pitiful and pitiable beyond belief.
How about Oil Co's. Chevron? Texaco? Mobil? Exxon? None How about Auto Mfr's? Ford? GM? Chyrsler? None.
Morons.
Move right along to any other industry if you please. None.
C'mon paper merchants, featherweights. Six months to go and NO
statistically significant number of companies ready on the face of the earth in ANY industry.
C'mon buttheads. I know you would dearly love to see me go. And I will.
Name ten Fortune 500 companies that have remdiated tested and put their systmes back into production. C'mon buttheads. That is only
what?.....2% of the Fortune 500. Can you name only TWO STINKING PERCENT that have finished with six months to go?
No, you can't, because you are a pack of assholes.
And NOT being able to name a lousy stinking 2% you think that the majority of them will magically be ready in the next six months. In total defiance of thirty years of IT track records.
Hey, Morons.....Isn't testing the most significant portion of the job? It is isn't it? Tell me how an industry like telecoms or electric utilities that CANNOT test themselves industry-wide will make a good showing? huh?
Now go out and dissuade some more people from making substantial preparations. Tell them how you can not even name a handful of Fortune 500 companies that have been remediated, or two or three Airports but that the majority WILL be ready anyway.
I hope that you will be held accountable for every drop of blood that is shed because someone listened to you and did not prepare for the sake of their families.
http://www.ireland.com/newspaper/computimes/1999/0531/cmp5.htm
--
Paul Milne
If you live within five miles of a 7-11, you're toast.
Sent via Deja.com http://www.deja.com/
Share what you know. Learn what you don't.
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-- a (a@a.a), June 04, 1999
Answers
Well said Paul. The Pollys won't and can't comprehend how thier neat
little worlds can get very ugly very fast. When TSHTF we won,t hear
from them anymore. Like the cowardly bully who just lost a fight.
They make a vain atempt at an argument that is based on rhetoric and
persuasion tactics than on hard evidience and intuitive reasoning.
These are "nice" people during times of ease and in a land of plenty.
When things turn dark, thier true dimensions will appear, and others
won't like what they see.
They are blame shifters and cannot stare a situation in the face head
on, for a lack of inner strenght and courage.
They do not fear y2k, since they either do not comprehend it or
choose not too.
Where there is no fear, there can be no courage.
Bob P
-- Bob P (Rpilc99206@aol.com), June 04, 1999.
ASKED MY LOCAL COUNCIL OFFICE IF THEY HAD ANY PLANS TO RUN A
COMMUNITY AWARENESS SCHEME FOR Y2K. ANSWER NO PLANS IN THE
PIPE LINE.
WHEN WILL YOU POLLYS REALISE THIS IS A F***ING SET UP
BEST WISHES
-- Graham hyslop (Bob@ghoward-oxley.demon.co.uk), June 04, 1999.
What I want to know is, in light of each and every FACT that he has
named...how the heck could so many GIs have the gall to suggest that
"nobody really knows for sure", "three days is better than nothing",
"We won't know until the roll-over", "I'm a 5", "What should I ask my
utility Co.", "any suggestions for questions to ask at the first
fireside chat".....I could go on and on. This sort of dung is
actually coming from those of us who GET IT? I don't think so. I
think alot of you folks are not only kidding yourselves....you're
sending mixed messages, prepare but don't worry, we'll be past this
by summer.I just read a post about the Pollys being "y2k wanna-bes"?
I think ALOT of the GIs had better start looking into the mirror and
asking some VERY tough questions. Wanna know why Ed left? For God's
sake, go back and read it AGAIN. Then conduct a quick reality check
and adjust the "tone" of this forum to reflect it, or stop wasting
people's time, as in, *JUNE 1999*. This place could be an empty room,
with a tremendous library, and serve as much purpose. If you're
asked, sincerely, what you think and you reply with "each person
needs to do what they think is best", you aren't giving an honest
answer. That answer is nothing more than fluff. These ARE the facts.
This IS the date. This is NOT a social club. We have a duty to warn.
That means ring the bell LOUDLY. No more "tinkling".
-- Will continue (farming@home.com), June 04, 1999.
Will continue:
You're quite right. Some people *do* know for sure. Paul Milne is one
of them. In fact, there's a long list of things he's known for sure.
Every last one of them was hilariously dead wrong, but that didn't
prevent him from knowing for sure.
I guess you've volunteered to join the "I know for sure" club.
Bradley Sherman has set up a web site for your predictions. Why don't
you go there and post them. If you think what Milne posts are 'facts'
(hehehe HAW HAW HAW! [snort!]) you should give his predictions some
pretty good competetion. Give it a try.
-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), June 04, 1999.
Hey Flint, I knew you trolls would start to come apart at the seams, just did not think it would be so soon.
Your Pal, Ray
-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), June 04, 1999.
Hey Flint, here is another one of Paul's csy2k posting from today. Anyone with an ounce of common sense can see the Tsunami coming.
========================================
Y2K deadlines slipping
Several key industries are now pushing their Year 2000-ready dates out to the final quarter, CHRIS BARTON reports.
Deadlines for fixing the Year 2000 electronic date change problem are sliding. That's the worrying finding from the Y2K Readiness Commission's latest business sector survey which shows a significant number of large businesses have revised their timetables.
"Businesses have underestimated the complexity of this problem and as they get into the testing phase they're finding it takes longer. It requires more management focus and resource," said commission chairman Basil Logan.
The trend was most marked in large business: only 43 per cent now expected to have their computer systems ready in the April-June
timeframe compared with 54 per cent that expected to meet that deadline when the question was asked in February. A similar slippage - 25 per cent now, versus 37 per cent then - was also evident for when business expected to fix date-aware embedded chips in other machinery.
The deadline creep has pushed large business completion dates out to the July-September (35 per cent) and the October-December quarters (26 per cent). Several key industries including telecommunications, electricity, hospital and oil sectors - previously more optimistic about their finish dates - were now showing Y2K readiness would not occur until the last quarter.
Mr Logan said the April survey highlighted infrastructure concerns that were only just beginning to be addressed. In the telecommunications sector, for example, Telecom was "well advanced" but cooperation with other telcos in addressing the interconnected nature of the problem was late. In the electricity sector there were concerns that some of the new line companies may not have sufficient Y2K resources.
Mr Logan was dismayed that some 35,000 small businesses (17 per cent) still had not begun fixing the problem, and that half of all businesses - mostly in the small to medium sector - did not think they needed a business continuity plan.
==============
Paul's comments:
"Businesses have underestimated the complexity of this problem .."
"..some 35,000 small businesses (17 per cent) still had not begun fixing the problem.."
This is typical. It is going on in the MOST aware countries like New Zealand. The Pollyannas do not care.
The history of IT is dismal. It does NOT accomplish large projects on time with any high rate of succes. The schedules are slipping
demonstrably in countries like NZ and Canada where things are supposed to be AHEAD of the rest of the world. The facts show that even those touted as being in the forefront are falling prey to business as usual.
NZ slipping behind. Canada slipping behind. England slipping way behind. Same with Ireland. Italy has not yet begun. Iran short a billion dollars. Venezuaela short a billion dollars. Russia, not begun and short three billion dollars. China, plagued by pirated software. Nigeria, the second largest African economy, not yet begun.
And still, with a well documented thirty year track record of failing to come in on time, not one major entity, private or public, has admitted that it is even in trouble. Absolutely amazing, isn't it?
The NUMBER ONE reason for the failures is lack of time. And yet NOT one has admitted it has run out of time.
The other side of the coin is that companies that DO run out of time, do not figure it out until the VERY last minute. They proclaim their readiness until the very last hour and then they figure it out.
So what do we have? We have an industry that is demonstrably slipping. In every country around the world. We have an industry that NEVER realizes that it is out of time until it is too late. We have ALL of them saying they will be ready.
You do not have to be a rocket scientist to see that this is following the EXACT same pattern as IT has always followed.... proclaiming its readiness even though demonstrably failing right up until the eleventh hour.
And then.....The collective 'dope slap'
"DoH!"
http://www.year2000.co.nz/y2khera2.htm
--
Paul Milne
If you live within five miles of a 7-11, you're toast.
==============================================
Ray
-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), June 04, 1999.
Flint said, "you're quite right. Some people *do* know for sure".
Too bad people like YOU do not. I DO and so do many others, Flint.
Those of you who claim to get it and yet continue to "sit on the
fence" as opposed to taking a stand, are about to find a "picket" up
your yazoo! And please, don't flatter yourself into thinking that YOU
were the ONLY one I was addressing my comments to! We won't hear from
the others, because they're in their bathrooms looking in the mirror.
It's alot of fun to "jab" the pollys, isn't it? Well, I think it's
about time that some of our OWN crowd examines their position, and
begins to practice what they "imply" they know. "Can" the mamby-pamby
fluffffff around here, people can get plenty of that in the
mainstream media and from our various governments. If people "search
us out" it is because they WANT to know the truth. If anyone on this
forum isn't willing to TELL IT LIKE IT IS, they shouldn't be here.
Flint and ANYONE else who is reading this....PLEASE tell me where
Milne is "wrong" in this post....I'm waiting. Name just ONE, that's
all, just ONE. If you can't see the BIG PICTURE, then don't annoy me
with some stupid response of ONE bank or ONE gas station. Stand up,
be heard, show me how really big your brain is!
-- Will continue (farming@home.com), June 04, 1999.
I forgot a couple of things, Flint. 1. these aren't "predictions".
This is the truth as of TODAY. 2. I had come to my conclusions WELL
before I had ever heard of Milne...he just reinforces them and
(unlike you) is able to get to the point without insulting us with a
contortion of the English language. I'm sick to tears of all the
language contortion that goes on in this forum. Don't make me out to
be a "Milne groupie". I can figure this out all for myself...it is
common sense. My ONLY question is....how far will this country's
"gutless" population allow this thing to careen out of control?
Feeling good about current society, Flint?
-- Will continue (farming@home.com), June 04, 1999.
Will continue:
Here we go again. I personally don't believe ANY large organization
will be compliant within the next decade. I just don't think it's
possible. Any declaration of compliance, I regard as nothing more
than self-serving PR. I believe that anyone who 'expects' to be ready
is simply saying what their lawyers tell them to say. It ain't gonna
happen. These y2k bugs are too common, and many of them are too
tricky, and fixes introduce new problems, and the job is too big.
They won't finish.
But that isn't the question, much as Milne seems successful in
twisting your mind into asking it. The real questions are, how close
will we get? To what degree are problems being found and fixed? When
they strike (and they will, no question about it), how manageable
will they be? How long will they last? What workarounds will we be
able to find?
Big organizations have computer problems constantly. They fix them,
they live with them, they suffer from them, all the time. When y2k
bugs start biting faster than they have to date (and I believe the
reports that say they've been biting already, quite a few of them),
how successfully will we manage to keep up with them?
Milne hasn't told any lies, but he's distorted reality beyond
recognition. He's got people thinking that anything less than 100%
compliant means catastrophe. And this simply isn't so. When Milne
issues is challenge ad nauseum to name ONE whatever, he's implying
that any organization that isn't 100% finished is 100% doomed. This
is simply wrong.
Most of us are preparing so as to be better able to ride out a period
of difficulties. The greater the degree of difficulty we expect, the
more we prepare. If we expect a long-duration infrastructure
breakdown, we buy seeds and farmland. If we expect riots, we move to
areas of low population density. If we expect depression, we try to
conserve our wealth and transfer it to where (we hope) it will hold
its value best. For many (maybe most) of us, the assumption implicit
in our preparations is that things will be back up and running sooner
or later. Yourdon says screwups for a year and a lousy economy for a
decade. But Yourdon's book starts out by saying you must gear your
preparations to the *type* of problem you expect. Not just the *size*
of the problem, but the nature of it as well.
What I'm trying to do is determine what's most *likely* to go wrong,
so that my preparations are most appropriate. I regard Milne's
prediction that *everything* will go wrong, and stay wrong forever,
as vanishingly unlikely. I try to point out that the only way he can
justify such a prediction is by systematic distortion, as I just
explained. I try to point out also that his methods have led to his
being wrong about *everything*, all his life. I'd prefer methods that
have a better track record.
-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), June 04, 1999.
Will continue asked Flint:
"PLEASE tell me where Milne is "wrong" in this post....I'm waiting. Name just ONE, that's all, just ONE. If you can't see the BIG PICTURE, then don't annoy me with some stupid response of ONE bank or ONE gas station. Stand up, be heard, show me how really big your brain is! "
Flint, still waiting for the ANSWER to this question.
Ray
-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), June 04, 1999.
Ray:
I spent some time explaining in detail why that is a stupid question.
When you ask stupid questions, you get stupid answers. So I gave Will
continue the benefit of the doubt and answered the intelligent
question she should have asked in the first place.
If you insist on a stupid answer, I suggest you answer it yourself.
-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), June 04, 1999.
Flint commented:
"I spent some time explaining in detail why that is a stupid question. When you ask stupid questions, you get stupid answers. So I gave Will continue the benefit of the doubt and answered the intelligent question she should have asked in the first place. "
Flint, could you point me to this detailed explanation?
Many thanks in advance.
Ray
-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), June 04, 1999.
If memory serves me correctly...hmmmm...it was Alan Greenspan that
stated 99% isn't going to cut it. (you know...that "stupid" guy).
That same theory applies to almost every industry, Flint. Your theory
of the fault tolerence is totally unrealistic.....NEXT?? Come on "get
its" is anybody home?
-- Will continue (farming@home.com), June 04, 1999.
Will continue:
Was this the same Alan Greenspan who said that nothing much was going
to happen and that the safest place for your money is in the bank.
*That* Alan Greenspan? Do you suppose he's changed his mind, or do
you cite Greenspan as an authority when you like what he says, and
mock him when he doesn't? Typical, if so.
As for our eventual fault rate and fault tolerance, you could be
right. I just don't know what to expect along those lines, and I
don't believe you do either. I think we can be pretty sure that our
tolerance limits will be tested strenuously, though.
-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), June 04, 1999.
Our fault tolerence, both here and internationally is about to "blow
a nut", Flint. Greenspan's remarks where made prior to the
government's "warp 3" spin, to curb panic. Once that began....others
changed their songs as well. Can you see the wart on the end of your
nose, or do you only see what is comfortable for you to accept?
-- Will continue (farming@home.com), June 04, 1999.
Flint, still waiting for you to point me to the detailed explanation!!
Ray
-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), June 04, 1999.
Flint:
I know for certain that God Almighty will judge America and that all
of our petty words will be but minor squeaks when His wrath crushes
our nation.
These are exciting times in which to live.
-- Randolph (dinosaur@williams-net.com), June 05, 1999.
Well, he's either writing a thesis, or he's in front of a mirror,
with his eyes closed tight, fists clenched and mumbling, "I DO
believe in technology. I DO, I DO believe in technology".
-- Will continue (farming@home.com), June 05, 1999.
Well, I'm hurt. Truly hurt.
Paul didn't call ME a moron again. I must be slipping.
Being called a moron by Paul Milne -- whose own brother has "outed"
him as somewhat ... erm, eccentric ... has to be biggest badge of
honor I could claim.
C'mon, Paul, call me a moron. What I have done to you lately?
(Whimper)
"If you live within 2 miles of Paul Milne, you're a hostage."
-- Stephen M. Poole, CET (smpoole7@bellsouth.net), June 05, 1999.
Stephen, would that be Paul's brother Gary Milne, the one that
admitted lying in several posts about his brother? The one that was
kicked of his ISP for threatening someone? The one that has dissuaded
the rest of Paul's family from preparing?
You're both idiots. Oh, that's right, you prefer the title "Moron".
-- a (a@a.a), June 05, 1999.
Yeah, but it just ain't the same when you say it, a. I wanna hear it
from Paul's own lips. :(
-- Stephen M. Poole, CET (smpoole7@bellsouth.net), June 05, 1999.
Poopsie, Milne didn't call you a moron because after all this time
Stephen M. Poole, CET, has become synoynmous with moron. It would be
redundant. Anybody ever notice Poole rhymes with fool?
-- OutingsR (us@here.yar), June 05, 1999.
If it would make you feel better, Poole, I'd be more than happy to
take up the task. Ahhh, why bother?
-- Will continue (farming@home.com), June 05, 1999.
Hey Poole, there are two postings by Milne here and I have not seen one comment from any of you trolls regarding them. Having trouble finding fault with Paul's facts?
Ray
-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), June 05, 1999.
Flint doth equivocate too much. The only smart money is on a Greater
Depression (tm), + ghastly added extras. And maybe worse.
-- humpty (no.6@thevillage.com), June 05, 1999.
Wondering about that too, Ray. They put out a call for trolls on Der
Boonkah about 9 pm last night with this thread's URL. But of course
they're not
organizing any effort to troll this site, oh no, not them, it's just a
joke. Boy, these folks are a real hoot.
See Calling All Pollys by Peg at --
http://www.InsideTheWeb.com/messageboard/mbs.cgi?acct=mb237006&MyNum=9
28544870&P=Yes&TL=928542635
There's a whole thread on the subject of this thread.
-- OutingsR (us@here.yar), June 05, 1999.
Flint, still waiting for you to point me to the detailed explanation!!
Your Pal. Ray
-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), June 05, 1999.
-- OutingsR (us) commented:
"Wondering about that too, Ray. They put out a call for trolls on Der Boonkah about 9 pm last night with this thread's URL. But of course they're not organizing any effort to troll this site, oh no, not them, it's just a joke. Boy, these folks are a real hoot."
You know these trolls are coming to the end of their rope so to speak when they have to take this type of action. Simply put, they have a TOTAL LACK of CREDIBILITY.
Ray
-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), June 05, 1999.
wait a sec,I thought y2k was no big deal and everyone would be done
by dec' 31,1998(note the four didget date code)with a full year for
testing?what's going on here?
-- zoobie (zoobiezoob@yahoo.com), June 05, 1999.
Ray: you and King of Spain are right. That they are at the end of
their rope is obvious from the following post, where Milne lists the
multitude of countries that are screwed, and super polly McIssaac says
"What's your point?":
|
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Joseph E. McIsaac wrote in message <3757F391.EE1FDCEF@marketpartners.com>...
&
gt;ElmerFin wrote:
>
>> Here's some facts that appear to be
from credible sources:
>>
>> 1. Milne posts an
apparently credible article on Ireland, someone notes
that
>> the thread is awfully quiet, and it
still has not elicited a reply from
those
>> arguing that there will be minimal
problems;
>
>Does anybody read the endless stream
of 'Country xxxx is toast' messages??
What's
>the point?
>
Hmmmmmmm. I guess the 'point' is lost on you
mcshill. Let's look at your own sentence. "an endless
stream'..... hmmmmmm. Many many many reasonable reports of an
endless stream of countries that have done next to nothing.
Nigeria, second largest economy in Africa, not begun.
Venezuela needs one billion dollars with a few months to go.
Iran needs a billion dollars with a few months to go. Rusia, not
begun. Ireland, self-admittedly in deep trouble. Italy, barely
begun. Canada, one of the best, slipping schedules.
An endless stream of countries that have not
remediated. An endless stream of non-compliant countries. And...you
ask... "What is the point?" Yes, I understand that an
endless stream of reports of unremdiated countries has no meaning for
you.
You remind me of a pathetic slob in a bar hitting on
a girl. She turns to you and tells you that you are the most repugnant
and vile creature that she has ever met and that she would not go out
with you if you were the last man on earth and that the
propagation of the species depended upon it. To which you
respond,
" What is your
point?"
>> [snipped references to newspaper
stories]
>
>> The above is hardly an exhaustive list
of items that have failed to
elicit
>> replies by those who claim to focus on
facts.
>
>You site newpaper stories about What
Might Be. If we look back at the
>much-ballyhooed dates of
1/1/1999 and 4/x/1999, we find that all the
speculation
>(and dire it was) of What Might Be for those
dates were PROVEN to be wrong.
And the
>trend continues (that dire predictions are
wrong each and every time).
And so, your conclusion is that because
there was not a huge publically failure associated with JAE that the
remdiation as a whole is going just fine?
Of course it
is. That would fit your paradigm nicely.
Paul
Milne
>
|
-- a (a@a.a), June 05, 1999.
Milne: Ireland "Completely out of Touch" with Y2K (warning:
offensive language)
Yes. It started off with "Milne"
-- Regular (at@the.forum), June 05, 1999.
Man, that 'a'....he sure knows how to throw a party, eh Flint?
-- Will continue (farming@home.com), June 05, 1999.
Regular is Mutha Nachu and also Cherri.
-- Quiet's Assistant (Observer@watching.her), June 06, 1999.
Pardon the delay, I'm just back from vacation.
In reply to:
http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=000ubI
The following was reported on:
http://www.ireland.com/newspaper/computimes/1999/0531/cmp5.htm
>>
BUSINESSES ARE OUT OF TOUCH AS Y2K NEARS: A Dail committee has been
urged by the director of the first Irish documentary on the Y2K
problem to introduce "emergency measures" to cope with the failure of
Small & Medium Size Enterprises (SMEs) to tackle the Millenium Bug.
<<
I was there. As one of the three-person team from the Irish Computer
Society, I was presenting to the same parliamentary committe, but my
down-to-earth comments on contingency planning just did not have the
same newsworthiness as Ronan's call for "emergency measures". He
asked for legislation to protect banks from litigation (for misplaced
advice etc) who assist their SME customers to tackle Y2K.
>>
The results of a recent Enterprise Ireland survey on the level of
preparedness for Y2K by SMEs was described by Esperanza
producer/director, Ronan Tynan, as a "devastating indictment" of the
software industry at a special hearing on Y2K held by the Dail
Committee on Enterprise and Employment last week.
<<
Yes, he also suggested a special tax on the software industry to help
pay for sorting out the problems.
>>
The survey's conclusions found that SMEs were completely out of
touch, "firmly believing the computer industry will sort the problem
out".
<<
Yes, about 60% of SMEs believe in the magic bullet from Bill Gates.
Paul Milne wrote:
>>
Here it is. The never ending list of countries that are floundering.
<<
Country? Let's have some perspective on this. We are talking about
SMEs, not banks or utility companies. Gartner think an SME is under
1000 employees. The EU uses <50 as small, 50-250 as medium. The Small
firms association, whose survey was reported to that committee, has
more than 90% of its members employing under 20 people. Companies of
that size can upgrade in the time left, if we can convince them in
time, which is the point of such presentations. Even if they don't,
they'll survive - not comfortably, but with extra (unpaid) effort.
And a few high-tech ones who really are computer-dependent but also
naive (believing in magic bullets) either pay the upgrade cost or
lose business to their better prepared competitors. But a whole
"country" floundering? Get real.
>Yesterday we heard that even Canada, widly touted as being in the
vanguard, is predictably slipping its milestones. Now we hear that
Ireland is completely out of touch. <
See http://www.sysmod.com/year2000.htm for various reports from
Ireland.
>>As a matter of fact there is NOT ONE contry on the face of the
earth that is even in the BALLPARK of compliance, and yet, Lo and
Behold, the pollyannas proclaim that things will be OK. <<
A country is a big place. As long as the infrastructure supports
activity, and companies can cope, they will. It will be an expensive
education on interdependence and technology dependence. But toast?
what does that mean?
>>They should have been popping up like mushrooms after a spring rain
on the bell curve of compliance. Yet, not one is ready. <<
If Year 2000 was now, things would be worse, but even now, it looks
as though enough has been done that if Y2K happened now, the banks
and utilities would be ready enough, to judge by public reporting of
industry tests. Nobody is ever 100% ready (nobody is 100% 1999
compliant btw, failures happen now all over the place and get
handled) and nobody will ever say they are either; who wants to paint
a target on their backside for litigation?
>>If you live within five miles of a 7-11, you're toast.
So ... you won't have seventeen different kinds of breakfast cereal
to choose from, for a few weeks anyway. Who's betting on sixteen?
six? I don't know.
Economies are more robust than that. Here's some stuff from the ITAA:
------------------------------
ITAA's Year 2000 Outlook
June 14, 1999 Volume 4, No.
22
Economist Says Statistics Net Out Bug
Economies are a little like balloons. Poke them here and they expand
there. They may change shape in the short term but, over the long
haul, they return to form nicely. So even a good swift kick
delivered by the Year 2000 should have little effect for Europe if
viewed in truly macro economic terms.
At least according to Nicholas Vanston, who heads the Resource
Allocation Division, Economics Department, at the Organization for
Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) in Paris. Whether or
not Y2K will have much kick is, of course, the question of the
moment. Vanston's view is hedged: "There will a lot of minor
inconveniences late in 1999 and early in 2000. There will probably
be serious inconveniences in Western and Eastern Europe. I think it
is unlikely that there will be major catastrophes."
Vanston suggests that catastrophes will be avoided because much of
the computing equipment in European countries is relatively new and,
therefore, stands to be that much more immune to the Millennium bug.
The affluent economies in northern Europe have aggressively gone
after the problem; the less affluent economies to the south have been
less aggressive but have a far smaller installed base of circa 1970s
and 1980s equipment.
The OECD economist also says Y2K awareness in Europe is generally on
the rise:
"There are more references to the Y2K bug-and not just in the English
language press." Two years ago, Vanston says, the story was
essentially for English language readers only. Now the French have
likewise gotten into the Y2K reporting act.
Vanston estimates Europe's Y2K problem at $100 billion in repair and
replacement costs. That figure is far lower than the $300 billion
some estimate for similar work in the U.S., in part because Vanston
says Europe is less computer intensive and in part because some
countries will essentially instigate fewer repairs.
Regardless of absolute amounts involved, Vanston says the Year 2000
could actually help the European economy by "accelerating the
renewal of replacements." New investment in IT equipment, high
employment in well paid Y2K repair jobs, new attention paid to IT
strategies overall leading to still more investments--all of those
things show up favorably in economic statistics.
It's the high tech equivalent of driving a car into a brick wall. To
economists, the net result of the crash is positive, yielding
industrial output, employment, consumer demand and a new car sale.
To really appreciate the situation, go a step deeper in the economic
logic. The statistics of capital equipment is a bit like the
actuarial tables of insurance companies, packed with assumptions
about how long things will last and the odds that they will blow up,
burn down or meet some other untimely end. Vanston says economists
essentially assume that a certain amount of equipment will hit the
brick wall in any given year, and they factor these losses into their
models and forecasts.
At the same time, because of rapid advances in the price/performance
of the technology itself, Vanston indicates that economists have
likewise worked a certain percentage of IT replacement costs into
their statistics. As a result, from an economic point of view, Y2K
may have already happened.
Or it may be a non-event all together. In macro economic terms, one
country's loss to Y2K disruptions may be another country's gain. "If
a ship cannot unload its cargo in Marseilles, it can unload in
Hamburg," Vanston predicts. "I personally don't think even major
[Y2K] catastrophes will have an impact at the macro level," he says.
"These [disruptions] may be things that people talk about for the
rest of their lives and [losses] will still not exceed 1 percent of
GDP for Europe.
To prove his point, Vanston says industrial production in Germany
during World War II didn't begin to fall until the end of 1944-only
after years of allied bombing. Even under less dramatic
circumstances, the economist says its surprising how quickly
societies can adapt to change. He notes that when a strike shut down
Irish banks for several weeks, people began using endorsed checks as
a form of currency. The checks couldn't be cashed, but they were
accepted anyway. "Society didn't collapse without the banks," he
said. Similarly, when the coal miners' strike in the UK forced
energy rationing back in the winter of 1974, people adjusted to
scheduled outages of heat and light.
"It was massively inconvenient," Vanston said, "Industrial output
fell by a fair percent. But for Europe as a whole, it was hardly
visible."
Outlook Archive
http://www.itaa.org/script/get2klet.cfm
-- Patrick O'Beirne (pobeirne@sysmod.com), June 15, 1999.
looks 1ike you reely are an asshole mr.man
take a chill pill geek
-- jim (ballickmoyler@hotmail.com), November 25, 2002.
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