Strange Personal Life Goals of the Polly/Troll

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Why am I here now? #1, by far, is entertainment. Some of yall are genuinely hilarious. Working day in and day out with Y2K, I could use a good laugh. This BB provides that service for me. #2 - hopefully I, along with a few others, can talk some folks on the fence in to keeping their money in the bank. That's THE biggie for me.

Deano

-- Deano (deano@luvthebeach.com), June 04, 1999.

-- moi (moi@moi.com), June 04, 1999

Answers

Glad you're gonna keep your money in the bank. That way there's more for me:-)

-- Cheryl (Transplant@Oregon.com), June 04, 1999.

Now, Deano (not to be confused with Beano, which PREVENTS gas rather than causes it), ain't gonna keep HIS money in the bank. He just wants YOU to keep yours in -- because guess why? Deano works for a mortgage banking service company! This is what he said on the BFI forum after he thanked his fellow plotters for inducting him into the takeover plot.

http://206.28.81.29/HyperNews/get/gn/1115/1/2.html

I've been involved in this thing for well over a year now. Work for a mortgage banking service bureau that provides loan servicing software to (roughly) 150 mortgage companies/banks across the country. 20 million+ single-family mortgages are processed on our mainframe in Jax, FL. It's a fairly huge operation. We started our Y2K project in 1994 and finished last year. Mainly external testing this year. . .

See? Now you know where he's coming from.

-- OutingsR (us@here.yar), June 04, 1999.


Which is precisely what he has said multiple times.

C

-- Chuck, a night driver (rienzoo@en.com), June 04, 1999.


-- OutingsR (us@here.yar, this is quite interesting, Deano is in the Mortgage Banking arena. Thank you VERY much for uncovering this interesting tidbit. Is it possible that Deano is being PAID to participate here? Does he post during working hours? Deano want to come CLEAN.

Keep up the GREAT work Outings-R-Us. These folks will self destruct soon.

Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), June 04, 1999.


Hey Deano, do you mean to tell me that the banks do not have enough money to cover our deposits? This can't be true. they told me when I gave them my money that I could have it ALL anytime I wanted it (Demand Deposit). Is it possible they were LYING to me? Oh my this can't be true.Could you look into this for me and let us ALL know what the scoop is Deano.

Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), June 04, 1999.



Check is quite right. There is nothing to "out" here, as Deano has been upfront and very informative about his business and his progress. He's the worst kind of enemy for the doomists -- someone who has inside knowledge and personal y2k experience in a key industry, and knows that their status is *excellent.*

So all the doomists can do is make fun of his signature and question his motives. They can *not* face good information. Doomer reaction to Deano is *most* informative.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), June 04, 1999.


Cheryl's a Newbie and didn't know Deano's background. Now she does. So do other Newbies.

-- OutingsR (us@here.yar), June 04, 1999.

Flint, yes MOTIVES do come into question. Are you aware of any bank or banking related business that has said they are not ready and will not be ready?

If they did so they would be INSTANTLY out of business. LYING has become an accepted pasttime for these folks. They don't care who is hurt by their actions. They have foisted a corrupt banking system on the sheeple and now they are trying to defend it to the bitter end. It won't work, the sheeple are waking up and unfortunately will discover that they can't have their hard earned money back.

Flint, keep on defending these shills they need all of the help they can get.

Your Pal, Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), June 04, 1999.


OutingsRus, I think this should be posted weekly and added to as we discover more of these folks with special MOTIVES.

Thanks Again, Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), June 04, 1999.


Ray:

I pointed out that those who are beat on the facts, turn around and question motives. Don't like the facts? Attack the messenger!

And sure enough, that's *exactly* what you did. Can't you see that?

I ask you: If (hypothetically) the banks were really in excellent shape, is there any way that you could possibly learn this? And I suggest that so long as you denigrate the motives of *anyone* who knows more than you do, you cannot learn.

So keep attacking messengers. Nobody will notice.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), June 04, 1999.



Flint, do people with MOTIVES ******LIE*******?

Why is it when I bring up the BIG L word you get so defensive? Your Pal, Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), June 04, 1999.


To the educated polly/trolls

Yardini April 12, 1999

SURVEY SAYS I.T. CROWD FORESEES Y2K CRISIS 87% See Global Trouble. The Information Technology Association of America (ITAA) claims to be the only trade association representing the broad spectrum of the world leading US information technology (IT) industry. ITAA includes over 11,000 direct and affiliate members from Americas largest corporations to the entrepreneurs building the blockbuster IT companies of the future.1 On January 20, 1999, ITAA issued a press release describing the results of a Y2K poll conducted by the organization of its members during December 1998. 2 The press release put a rather positive spin on the findings. However, on closer inspection, there was plenty of material suggesting that a negative spin is more accurate. Even the upbeat press release noted

Eighty-seven percent of survey respondents said the Year 2000 problem is a crisis for the nation and the world. Fifty-two percent think the Millennium bug will hurt their companies; only 29% disagree with this notion. Over one-third said the bug has already started to bite, triggering failures under actual operating conditions. Of those reporting specific failures, these included data exchange errors (34%), accounting errors (27%), errors in Y2K ready commercial software (28%), errors in tested software causing rework (25%), data base file corruption (21%), and computer crashes (18%). In test mode, 71% of respondents are finding failures.

US Government Mostly Meets Deadline. Partly as a result of these puzzling redefinitions, officials of the Clinton administration were able to brag that 92% of the governments mission-critical computer systems have been fixed, undergone an initial round of Year 2000 tests, and put back on line, complying with the March 31 deadline set 16 months previously. Thirteen of the 24 agencies reported that 100% of their critical systems have been deemed compliant for operation in 2000. Now the tough part: The next phase, calle end-to-end testing, would be difficult, consume huge chunks of time, and add to agency costs. In such tests, agencies are trying to determine if their systems can reliably exchange data with other systems after Year 2000 changes have been made to pieces of hardware or lines of code. Experience shows that when systems undergo multiple changes, as with Y2K, programmers inadvertently make errors that require still more debugging.

MISSION-CRITICAL DROPOUTS The table in Appendix II shows the number of mission-critical systems reported by the 24 federal governmen agencies every quarter since May 1997. The total number is down a whopping 25%, from 8,589 during November 1997 to 6,399 in the February 1999 progress report compiled by the Office of Management and Budget.4

So Whats The Story? The AP story observes that in mid-February 1999, the government would have been only 55.6% compliant rather than 79%, as reported, had 3,323 systems not been dropped or redefined.

-- Feller (feller@wanna.help), June 04, 1999.


Feller:

This is very good information. It gives us a feel for the vast complexity of what we're dealing, at least a little bit. And it's complex indeed. As I'm sure you are aware, there are many such surveys (of mostly the same people, even), and all produce very different results depending on what was asked.

Fixing complex systems and making them work together well enough just isn't a matter of simple truth vs. lies as simpletons like Ray seem to 'think'. I think most such surveys find the percentage of organizations which have already experienced y2k problems to be much higher. And 71% of tests having found bugs sounds wrong -- I should certainly hope that 100% of tests find bugs. There are always bugs, and if the tests aren't finding them, they are bad tests.

Another point: the ITAA surveys IT people, and that's where the biggest problems lie. And they, like everyone, tends to exaggerate the global importance of what they do for a living. After all, they spend all day at it every day. It's what they know.

Realistically, I can't imagine *any* large company or government organization ever reaching compliance, much less reaching it in time. The 'compliance' issue is born of binary thinking. Instead, what remediation and testing do is reduce an organization's exposure. This can't be reduced to zero, and no amount of compliance declarations or lack of such declarations is going to change this. In practice, the goal of remediation and testing is to contain the bugs within manageable limits. Fix on failure and contingency planning are intended to boost the containment capability.

Don't be fooled by the Milne presumption that nothing lies between 100% compliant and 100% defunct. All of life falls between these extremes. Few of us scored 100 on every test in school, yet most of us graduated. And we continue through life the same way, doing our best and falling short of perfect but no so far short that we can't function at all.

So 'compliant' is a very relative term, much like 'clean' or 'tall' or 'healthy'. And if we achieve our goal, and the bugs are manageable for the most part, we've come close enough. Yes, times might be hard for a while. But 'hard' is relative too.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), June 04, 1999.


Flint, as if you didn't know, here is the way the federal government reaches their y2k goals.

"MISSION-CRITICAL DROPOUTS The table in Appendix II shows the number of mission-critical systems reported by the 24 federal governmen agencies every quarter since May 1997. The total number is down a whopping 25%, from 8,589 during November 1997 to 6,399 in the February 1999 progress report compiled by the Office of Management and Budget."

Now Yada .... Yada .... Yada this to death.

Yes Flint, LYING is pervasive in government and industry when it comes to y2k. It WILL become more and more apparent in the months ahead.

Your Pal, Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), June 04, 1999.


But Feller how can this be? Beano, the 22 year old mortgage broker, claims we're in *excellent* shape.

Flint, are these FACTS good enough for you, or is the ITAA full of shit like all of us Yourdonites?

-- a (a@a.a), June 04, 1999.



"#2 - hopefully I, along with a few others, can talk some folks on the fence in to (sic) keeping their money in the bank."

I think Deano overestimates his influence and persuasive abilities.

-- PNG (png@gol.com), June 04, 1999.


PNG:

If they really are on the fence, Deano might have some influence. If they've fallen completely off the deep end like Ray and 'a', God himself could not save them. Much less the actual future.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), June 04, 1999.


Flint commented:

"If they really are on the fence, Deano might have some influence. If they've fallen completely off the deep end like Ray and 'a', God himself could not save them. Much less the actual future. "

Flint, there in lies the problem, every government and industry shill lying through their teeth in order to save their butts.

It's going on every day Flint, I notice you don't have much to say about the subject.

Your Pal, Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), June 04, 1999.


No Flint! God could save them if it pleases Him. God is omnipresent, omnipotent, omniscient. He could save them if He wished!

Christus Victor!, BR

-- brother rat (rldabney@usa.net), June 04, 1999.


So, Beano, let me see if I have this straight. Your company started in 1994 and finally finished last year. Took four years. Congratulations! I am absolutely delighted to hear a success story, and I'm sure there are many more out there. One mainframe. Four years. Hmmmm. I wonder what that means for the companies with much larger operations that started later. Or the Post Office, which has already admitted starting too late. Or entire countries that have yet to start at all. Certainly they found something during that time, either that or your IS team pulled off the scam of the century. It amazes me that people can project their isolated successes in their own little worlds to mean that everything is fine everywhere. Sure, the argument could go the other way, and every failure could be extrapolated to a doomer's advantage, but you are just as guilty of the flaw in logic. I'm glad we are entertaining to you. You certainly have returned the favor by stimulating the discussion. But stop with the holier-than- thou attitude, you're no prophet and certainly no expert. You're just another clueless, money-driven puke with a personal agenda. II hope the banks don't fail, just so that when the market tanks, (of which you undoubtedly have a stake), you will lose your sorry butt like the rest of your ilk. I work with people like you and they make me sick. Entertain that, prick.

-- ariZONEa (throw_deano@_.net), June 04, 1999.

Arizona wrote:

"You're just another clueless, money-driven puke with a personal agenda. II hope the banks don't fail, just so that when the market tanks, (of which you undoubtedly have a stake), you will lose your sorry butt like the rest of your ilk. I work with people like you and they make me sick. Entertain that, prick. "

Yes, pollys are so abusive, and everyone wonders why.

As to the actual issue, arizona, the effect of y2k on you and me doesn't depend on 'completions', it depends on what goes wrong, and how much goes wrong. The goal isn't really to be perfect. The goal is to be adequate. Barely adequate is good enough. Can we do enough to reach that point? That's what matters.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), June 04, 1999.


Flint commented:

"The goal isn't really to be perfect. The goal is to be adequate. Barely adequate is good enough. Can we do enough to reach that point? That's what matters. "

Flintt, you REALLY need a rest. If this isn't Yada ... Yada .... Yada I don't know what is.

Your Pal, Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), June 04, 1999.


Ray:

I think you need a new mantra. Your old one isn't working.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), June 04, 1999.


Good point, Flint. Maybe I would be more optimistic that we can reach the "barely adequate" stage, if the effort to at least begin to recognize the problem wasn't undermined by people such as Deano. It's real hard to even raise the subject for discussion with management, much less attempt to fix the problem when the "all doomers are Gary North Sheep" stereotype gets consistently reinforced by the Deanos of the world. I agree, the only thing that matters is whether we reach "that point". But, let me ask you this: If there are REAL problems in the near future that manifest themselves in a highly visible way, won't Deano and his cohorts be responsible for the inevitable panic because they have constantly discredited people that might have provided a warning? I try not to get nasty, but sometimes you just gotta, you know?

-- ariZONEa (desertsouthwest@rizona.com), June 04, 1999.

Flint, because AriZONEa was rude, you said --

"Yes, pollys are so abusive, and everyone wonders why."

I wish you had been so quick to chastise the person who STARTED this thread, by saying: "Why am I here now? #1, by far, is entertainment. Some of yall are genuinely hilarious. Working day in and day out with Y2K, I could use a good laugh. This BB provides that service for me."

That's a pretty damn abusive way to start a thread and you said nothing about it in your posts. This double standard has been noted several times before. It's okay for the pollys and trolls to be abusive, but it's not okay for the Yourdon folks to reply in kind. You want to explain that?

-- OutingsR (us@here.yar), June 04, 1999.


"keeping their money in the bank"

What business is of anybody's what I do with my money? I just took the ratiest dollar out of my wallet, put in the ash tray, and burned it up, in your honor Deano. Got a problem with that, except that maybe I'm a moron? And even if I am, like I said, what business is it of yours??? Also in your honor, Deano, I'm not going to renew that $10,000 CD that's due the first of next month. You sound like a bank VP to me, and I don't at all like the feeling I get from you. YOU just talked me into it, Deano. Happy now? <:)=

-- Sysman (y2kboard@yahoo.com), June 05, 1999.


PS - And I've got another CD on 10/1, in case Maria, Flint, Decker, or anyone else wants to try and talk me into what to do with it. Good luck... <:)=

-- Sysman (y2kboard@yahoo.com), June 05, 1999.

arizona:

I must say I don't regard Deano as being influential enough to make much difference to more than a small handful of people. Certainly he's in a small minority on this forum, and doesn't post often, so any casual reader would have to be extremely diligent and selective to read Deano and ignore everyone else. And if they did that, they're beyond reach anyway. If his organization is finished, that's great. If he wants to project that status onto the world, he's as illogical as those who project troubled remediation projects onto the rest of the world. You just can't project that way.

Outings:

You call that abuse? Deano expresses amusement at the extremism that permeates this forum, and you're offended? My, what thin skin you have to get alarmed by what is (by forum standards) mild criticism indeed. Further, Deano's amusement is based on what he claims is very positive, albeit very limited, personal knowledge. To me, there's a big difference in abuse level between "you are funny" and "you are a clueless money-driven puke, I hope you lose your butt, you prick." If you can't see that difference, I can't help you.

I've been writing for a long time here about the irrational techniques commonly used to create 'factual' mountains out of every possible molehill some of the extremists here read into everything no matter what it really says. For a while, I wrote in the debunker forum against those who apply *exactly* the same techniques to dismiss every real problem there is. After a while, if you really think about what the loonies on the fringe are saying (at both extremes), and you either laugh or cry.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), June 05, 1999.


Why am I here now? #1, by far, is entertainment. Some of yall are genuinely hilarious

Deano = b (b@b.b) = general flames and very nasty body-part poster

-- Quiet (Observer@watching.him), June 05, 1999.


Holier-than-thou Sparkless Flint, you posted on another thread today --

"Wow. Licking Milne's ass seems to be a tag-team sport. Too bad none of the team members can think for themselves -- except, how could it possibly be otherwise?"

Great sense of humor, guy! Nice to see some refinement around here too, among all the gross remarks.

-- OutingsR (us@here.yar), June 05, 1999.


Flint commented:

"I've been writing for a long time here about the irrational techniques commonly used to create 'factual' mountains out of every possible molehill some of the extremists here read into everything no matter what it really says. For a while, I wrote in the debunker forum against those who apply *exactly* the same techniques to dismiss every real problem there is. After a while, if you really think about what the loonies on the fringe are saying (at both extremes), and you either laugh or cry. "

Flint, your objective on this forum has been and continues to be extremely DEVIOUS. Your posts are made to influence folks to believe that y2k will be a "bump in the road" with a few warnings scattered oround. It is encouraging to me that more and more folks are beginning to see through your sham.

Your Pal, Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), June 05, 1999.


Ray said: Hey Deano, do you mean to tell me that the banks do not have enough money to cover our deposits? This can't be true. they told me when I gave them my money that I could have it ALL anytime I wanted it (Demand Deposit)

Ray said in another post: Flint, yes MOTIVES do come into question. Are you aware of any bank or banking related business that has said they are not ready and will not be ready?

If they did so they would be INSTANTLY out of business. LYING has become an accepted pasttime for these folks. They don't care who is hurt by their actions. They have foisted a corrupt banking system on the sheeple and now they are trying to defend it to the bitter end. It won't work, the sheeple are waking up and unfortunately will discover that they can't have their hard earned money back.

Ray, I am a little confused about your opinion of the banking industry. Do you have anymoney in the bank now and if so, why? Why would you put any money in an institution you view as inherently corrupt? If y2k blows over and the U.S. government and the banking system remain intact, do you intend to put any of your money back in the bank?

I guess what I am asking is this: If you regard the banking system as inherently corrupt, why should y2k be of any relevance to your decision to put money in the bank or not? I would think that you would not want to put your money into such a corrupt system for moral reasons. And for that matter, you would never take out a home mortgage or a car loan or a business loan from the bank because the system is corrupt, right? You would never participate in a corrupt system, would you?

Or are you just willing to take advantage of the system when times are good and then not only pull out of the system, but denounce the system and sew seeds of suspicion to undermine the system when things might appear to some alarmists to be turning bad.

If you want to pull your money out of the bank, then fine. It's your money. But I hope you do not put your money back into the bank or apply for a loan or use a credit card again when this all blows over. I also hope you refuse to work for an employer who had to take out loans to start his business. Those loans would not have bean available and the job would not have been created without the banking system. It would be a shame to see you participate in such corruption.

Ray, if you take your money out of the system and intend to keep it out after 2000 for ideological reason, then I applaud you for ideological consistancy. If you are withdrawing it for fear of the y2k bug, and plan to use the system after things return back to normal, then I accuse you of the selfishness of overpreparedness. Read my articles at the following two links to understand why I make that charge: http://members.visi.net/~certus/yca/conspiracy1.htm http://members.visi.net/~certus/yca/conspiracy2.htm

As for me, I plan to continue to use the banking system after 2000 and I have no desire to be joined by fair weather friends in using the system.

-- Robin S. Messing (rsm7@cornell.edu), June 05, 1999.


Robin, to answer your question I keep a small amount of money in a checking account to pay bills with and I have a safe deposit box.

Now answer these questions for me, are you associated with the banking industry? Are you aware of what has transpired over the last hundred years with regard to our banking and monetary systems. If you were I believe that you would have the same GRAVE concerns that I have. If you are a banking SHILL then it would make no difference.

Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), June 05, 1999.


Robin, further clarification of my position. y2k is merely one of many triggers that will bring our financial "House of Cards" tumbling down. The sad thing is that the average John Doe is totally unaware of the how this SHAM has evolved over many years.

Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), June 05, 1999.


Ray,

If you had bothered to read the article I wrote in the links I posted, you would have learned that I work in a library, not a bank.

Let me further state for the record so that it is unambiguous:

1) I DO NOT WORK IN THE BANKING INDUSTRY

2) I HAVE NEVER WORKED IN THE BANKING INDUSTRY IN THE PAST.

3) I HAVE NO INTENTIONS OF WORKING IN THE BANKING INDUSTRY IN THE FUTURE.

4) I HAVE NEVER BEEN PAID FOR ANYTHING I HAVE WRITTEN ABOUT Y2K AND/OR THE BANKING INDUSTRY.

5) I DO NOT EXPECT TO GET PAID FOR ANYTHING I WRITE ABOUT Y2K AND/OR THE BANKING INDUSTRY.

I am not sure what you are referring to about the past hundred years of the banking industry. I do know that not a single person has lost a penney in an FDIC insured account. That is good enough for me.

Robin Messing

-- Robin S. Messing (rsm7@cornell.edu), June 05, 1999.


Deano,is banking international?what about banks in Italy?Japan?Brazil?fractional reserve banking has had it's time and everything dies.you're probably loaded,don't loose it all along with everyone else.pull all of your money out of the bank now!

-- zoobie (zoobiezoob@yahoo.com), June 05, 1999.

the FDIC will not cover every bank crashing,get your money out NOW!!!

-- zoobie (zoobiezoob@yahoo.com), June 05, 1999.

Robin Messing commented:

"I am not sure what you are referring to about the past hundred years of the banking industry. I do know that not a single person has lost a penney in an FDIC insured account. That is good enough for me. "

Robin take a few moments out to enlighten yourself with regard to our monetary and banking system. Here is a link that will help. If you want more let me know.

The Wonderful Weird World of Fractional Reserve Banking

Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), June 05, 1999.


Robin, here is another excellent article:

Money, Lies and Adding-Machine Tape

Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), June 05, 1999.


Ray, thanks for the links. I'll read the articles later this evening or tomorrow morning before commenting on them. It is beautiful out, the Ithaca Festival is happening this weekend, and I am not going to spend any more time at the computer today.

Robin

-- Robin S. Messing (rsm7@cornell.edu), June 05, 1999.


Flint said:

If they really are on the fence, Deano might have some influence [persuading them to keep their money in the bank]. If they've fallen completely off the deep end like Ray and 'a', God himself could not save them.

Flint also said, on a thread a couple months back:

"I know it is bad for the system, but sorry..I will be removing all my money from the bank"

Is it just me, or does the great middle-of-the-roader Flint seem a tad hypocritical of old 'a'? BTW Flint - even I don't plan on taking ALL my money from the bank!

Gotta agree with Beano on one count - the pollys, and their "takeover attempt", do make this forum comical. Kind of like the Flintstone Cops. LOL

-- a (a@a.a), June 05, 1999.


Robin, if you have any questions please feel free to fire away. I don't have all of the answers but I will give it my best shot. In the meantime enjoy that beautiful day in Ithaca and forget about this stuff!

Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), June 05, 1999.


"a", I think we could best describe Flint as a bit confused.

Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), June 05, 1999.


here is something else I will post weekly

[Edited -- Poster NOT OutingsR]

we need to keep the newbies informed

-- OutingsR (us@here.yar), June 05, 1999.


that's going a bit far, outings. True a dosn't contribute, but posting personal info is out of line

-- regular (at@the.forum), June 05, 1999.

Good to know that someone is watching over this forum for fradulent use of handles. I think those under fradulent handles should be removed from participation!!!

Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), June 05, 1999.


The following was NOT OutingsR, it was a quote of OutingsR:

here is something else I will post weekly

[Edited -- Poster NOT OutingsR]

we need to keep the newbies informed

-- OutingsR (us@here.yar), June 05, 1999.

that's going a bit far, outings. True a dosn't contribute, but posting personal info is out of line

-- regular (at@the.forum), June 05, 1999.

Huh? According to Quiet, regular is actually Mutha Nachu, who is also Cherri. OutingsR has never posted personal info that wasn't publicly posted by the poster on another forum. In fact, in a Beano post pasted by OutingsR, the name of the company he worked for was deleted. You must have OutingsR confused with your personal-file-collecting friend Charles P. Reuben of Der Boonkah.

-- OutingsR (us@here.yar), June 05, 1999.


Yes, it's easy to confuse the two. Fortunately, both should be beneath notice.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), June 05, 1999.

Here is what happened, the following was posted under your handle OutingsR:

"here is something else I will post weekly

[Edited -- Poster NOT OutingsR]

we need to keep the newbies informed

-- OutingsR (us@here.yar), June 05, 1999. "

Then the forum moderator replaced the URL for "a" with the message:

[Edited - Poster NOT OutingsR]

Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), June 05, 1999.


mutha Nacho, we all just find it really hard to believe that you could possibly be as stooopid as you appear to be, so our next best guess is that you're calculating and disingenuous.

I'm sure you well understand how likely this is to breed a form of mild paranoia, and maybe herein lies the purpose of your visits here.

Oh and by the way, we all love you deeply and sincerely.??

-- humpty (Iam_not_a_number@hotmail.com), June 05, 1999.


mutha Nacho, we all just find it really hard to believe that you could possibly be as stooopid as you appear to be, so our next best guess is that you're calculating and disingenuous.

I'm sure you well understand how likely this is to breed a form of mild paranoia, and maybe herein lies the purpose of your visits here.

Oh and by the way, we all love you deeply and sincerely.??



-- humpty (Iam_not_a_number@hotmail.com), June 05, 1999.


dag nammit, how do you do that fancy colour html, you stooopid cow? What's wrong with what I did? ctrl-u

-- humpty (Iam_not_a_number@hotmail.com), June 05, 1999.

The Mutha just told all by saying it would share with "some young psych majors".

Simple, indifferent, carefree college days. Miss them.

-- Carlos (riffraff1@cybertime.net), June 05, 1999.


What happened - I missed it. Somebody post my IP address again? For your information, I post from several.

"regular" is Flint. That comment about "'a' doesn't contribute" gives him away. Flint, why do you say I don't contribute? You know good and well I've contributed plenty to this forum, just not wishy washy pseudo analysis slanted towards rosy outcomes like youself. The problem we have with you is that you will not admit that the bad news is bad news. When we report it, you say we are distorting the facts.

Drop me a line privately if you want, we'll bury the hatchet. You have my email address.

-- a (a@a.a), June 05, 1999.


'a':

I've never posted as anyone but myself. Why should I? I'm willing to defend everything I say, and my e-mail address is real if anyone should care to discuss anything offline.

However, like 'regular' I wish you'd contribute more substance. I know you have the insight, and don't need to hide behind anyone else's opinions.

For a start, I'd appreciate it if you could add to what I wrote in the thread directed at me earlier about recovery curves. I can talk from experience about embeddeds and hardware. All I could say about big IT systems was that Cory sounds most credible to me on the pessimist side, but others make positive claims about major systems as well. I really have no good feel for what big IT shops are facing beyond what Arnold Trembley has written (he's my gold mine).

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), June 05, 1999.


HUMPTY,

Obviously the computer doesn't understand your spelling of the word color??? :-) You wrote colour.

-- Gayla Dunbar (privacy@please.com), June 05, 1999.


Oh, I get it. American spelling! Thanks Gayla.

And Mutha, I never said that your above post made no sense, I just generally implied that you are of low intelligence and have questionable motives.

-- humpty (Iam_not_a_number@hotmail.com), June 06, 1999.


Ray,

I am not a banking expert and I do not have enough information to thoroughly debunk your articles. I'm sure Mr. Decker would be much more capable of doing that than I can. However, I strongly suspect that they overstate the problem. A couple of key phrases in the first article set off some warning bells:

http://the-moneychanger.com/html/it_s_funny_money.html

Since three generations have passed since the Federal Reserve system was fixed like an evil incubus on the back of America . . . [emphasis added]

and

The federal government will do whatever is possible, including shooting women and children in the streets, to protect the banking system.

These passages are a tip-off that the author has a serious ax to grind. For whatever reason, he has an intense hatred for our banking system and our system of government. Such an individual could conceivably twist his data to make the system look more unstable than it really is. He might even do this intentionally to undermine confidence in the system in order to bring it down. I hope you don't mind my looking at the motives of the author when trying to evaluate the trustworthiness of his information. After all, you yourself have called into question the motives of banking officials in determining their believability earlier on this thread. In your own words, you said:

Flint, yes MOTIVES do come into question.

Just as you find it fair and necessary to question the motives of banking officials, I find it fair and necessary to question the motives of the author of this article in judging how he might slant his information.

I do not have the expertise to fully tear this article apart. But one thing did leap out at me. The centerpiece of the article rests upon the author's calculation of the reserve requirement percentage of 1.3205%. He used this number to state that only 1.32% of deposits could be withdrawn upon demand. He came up with this number by dividing the total reserve requirements by the total bank deposits. If the amount of total bank deposits were smaller than the total he used, $3,589.70 billion, then the reserve requirement percentage would be higher and the problem would not be that bad. Notice that 81% of the $3589.7 billion comes from Savings and Time (CD) deposits. I have no problems with including Savings deposits in that figure since the bank must pay them on demand, but including Time deposits seems strange to me indeed. Perhaps someone can correct me if I am wrong here, but I don't think the bank is under any obligation to pay this money back on demand. Customers who want to withdraw their Time deposits must give their banks advance notification of this in writing. They should not expect this money to be payable on demand and so this should not be included in the calculation. This would make the reserve requirement percentage higher than 1.32%. How much higher I do not know. There may theoretically be a problem here, but I suspect the article is overstating it.

As for the second article, the bias was a bit more subtle. I must admit that I hurt myself laughing when I read this statement:

The risk of carrying cash, while real, is not too great, since so few people do it today that potential thieves would rather steal credit cards, or debit-cards.

Imagine the following. You are walking down a dark alley and a thief sticks a gun in your back:

Thief: Your money or your life!

Victim: (Takes out a wad of cash.) Here, This is all I have.

Thief: What's this??? I don't want no steeenkin' cash. Give me your credit card.

Sorry Ray. This comes from the theater of the absurd. If anything, I think most thieves would probably prefer cash. There is less chance of getting caught spending cash than of trying to use someone else's credit card.

The article ended:

If the State should come to regard you as an enemy, it wouldn't need to send its goons out to work you over; it could just pull the plug on your credit or debit-cards. You could starve in the midst of plenty.

Here the strong anti-government bias comes out once again. I'm not going to say that this scenario is impossible. But in the scheme of things it is very low on my list of things to worry about. Personally, I am more worried about being mugged by a thief who wants my cash than I am about being declared an enemy of the state and having my money confiscated. Theft of cash commonly occurs every day. Confiscation of credit cards accounts by the government is a relatively rare occurrence. And theft of all one's money so that one starves in the midst of plenty would probably violate the "cruel and unusual" punishment clause of the Constitution.

Again, just because some of this article seems a bit silly doesn't necessarily make it entirely wrong. It seems there is a theoretical problem. I'm just not convinced that the problem is big enough to lose sleep over.

The first article raised a point that I don't think it fully disputed:

Since three generations have passed since the Federal Reserve system was fixed like an evil incubus on the back of America and nothing bad has happened(other than two world wars, two depressions, the death of family farming, and a Federal debt the size of Montana, Idaho, and Utah combined), they just laugh back at me. "Never in our lifetimes have the banks been in trouble. You're a Nervous Nelly."

This statement alone indicates to me that the system is fairly robust. The following article suggests that there should be enough money to go around, especially if people don't panic.

http://www.nytimes.com/library/tech/99/06/biztech/articles/04millenniu m-fed.html

June 3, 1999

Fed Has Y2K Nest Egg

By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

SAN FRANCISCO -- The Federal Reserve has stockpiled $200 billion as a cushion against Year 2000-related hysteria, enough to keep the nation's financial system afloat even if every adult in the nation withdraws $1,000 at year's end.

The cash stockpile is just one of the many ways in which the Fed has prepared for the Year 2000 computer bug, according to Robert T. Parry, president of the Fed's San Francisco district, which covers nine Western states.

While short-term, isolated disruptions are possible, Perry said, the public should have confidence in that the financial infrastructure -- checks, automated tellers, credit and debit cards, direct deposits -- will run smoothly.

``As an economist, I deal with probabilities all the time,'' Perry said at a Commonwealth Club luncheon on Wednesday. ``I think the probabilities are very high that on Jan. 1, 2000, nothing very unusual is going to happen.''

The Y2K problem arises from computers that may confuse the year 2000 for 1900 when the millennium hits. This may happen because some older software was designed to recognize only the last two digits -- the two zeros in those years.

For the Fed, the threat of Y2K is no small matter. More than $2 trillion pass through the Fed's banking system each day. A shutdown of its network could trigger mass panic and an economic catastrophe.

While Y2K experts say that's extremely unlikely, some predict that people may make a huge run on banks in the days before the millennium, withdrawing billions of dollars.

About 98 percent of the computer systems in thousands of banks that do business with the Fed are Y2K-compliant, and the rest should meet federal regulations for Y2K readiness by the end of this month, Perry said.

Ray, I don't know if you have had a chance to read my article yet, but I did spend a considerable amount of time discussing some of the issues raised in your suggested readings. In particular, about halfway down this article there is a section entitled "Are Bank Driven Runs Necessary?" The article from this section on is relevant to this discussion. My main point: of course the system can collapse if overtaxed by a huge change in customer behavior. But that is true of many other systems as well. This doesn't necessarily make the banking system corrupt.

That's it for now. I'm off to the Ithaca Festival for the remainder of the day. I probably won't get to check back until tomorrow after work.

Robin

-- Robin S. Messing (rsm7@cornell.edu), June 06, 1999.


Ray -- FYI, found at Der Boonkah today --

Paging Mr. Decker

Sunday, 06-Jun-1999 13:57:51

128.253.44.15 writes:

Mr. Decker,

Ray at the Timebomb (formerly Yourdon's) forum asked for my input on a couple of articles about potential weaknesses in the fractional reserve banking system.

http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=000ub0

If you have the time, could you check out my critique? Are my points reasonable and do you have anything to add? I appologize for dragging you into this and I will be more than understanding if you don't have time to get involved in this thread right now, but I can't think of anyone more competant to comment on this subject.

Robin

Robin seems to be part of the Der Boonkah/BFI Polly Follies.

-- OutingsR (us@here.yar), June 06, 1999.


Robin, simply put every Fiat money system in the world has eventually folded under the weight of the political organization in charge, ours will be no different.

If you look back over the last 100 years and review how our money system has evolved and how it has been decimated you will understand why I feel strongly that the financial bubble thusly created is about to burst, with or without y2k. You can pick at this and that but the overall picture is bleak indeed.

Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), June 06, 1999.


OutingsRus commented:

"Robin seems to be part of the Der Boonkah/BFI Polly Follies. "

Thanks OutingsRus, yesterday I gave Robin a couple of links regarding our monetary system, didn't ask her to comment but welcome any she has. I find it interesting that there appears to be a bit of a coordinated effort on the part of these folks to respond. Guess they can't do it all alone.

Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), June 06, 1999.


So Outings tries to assign guilt by association, and Ray acts (once again) as cheerleader.

And the hilarious thing is, RAY says others aren't thinking for themselves. What a hoot!

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), June 06, 1999.


Flint,

I'm one of the last one's to be called a "doomer" as are many on this forum, but aren't "they" tarring all of us here with the same brush?

Why don't you call "them" on the carpet Flint?

Diane

-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), June 06, 1999.


Diane:

It isn't "us" and "them". We're all just people expressing our opinions. I sampled those other fora for a while, and found them restrictive, their inhabitants deaf. If they've decided (I think they have) that their goal is to stifle debate so they can all pat themselves on the back, OK, they're welcome to it. And if you choose to post there, I still pay attention to what you say here, and address what you say here. I don't skip immediately to see who posted an opinion, then check with Outings (a jerk) to see if this poster is on the "bad person" list for posting elsewhere, and then just attack the poster without reading the post.

What they say about anyone here, or what anyone here says about them, ought to be irrelevant. It's hard at times, but I *do* try to focus on y2k, rather than on personal attacks. And for doing so, of course I catch hell on all fora.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), June 06, 1999.


LOL...

Flint we *agree* on something! Amazable.

Can I buy ya a caffe latte next year?

Diane

-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), June 06, 1999.


Diane:

My pleasure, if you promise not to throw it at me [grin].

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), June 06, 1999.


Hey Flint, I'm going to the Der Bonka forum to see if I can find some one to get you straighted out. Be back in a minute!!

Your Pal, Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), June 06, 1999.


Flint, BAD NEWS, no one on the Der Bonka Forum was up to the task Keep the faith, I'll never give up!!

Ray

-- Rayq (ray@totacc.com), June 06, 1999.


Ray,

If I understand you correctly, you are against the fiat money system, period. The details don't matter. It doesn't make a difference whether the reserve requirement percentage is 1.32% as calculated in the article, or 10% or 20%. You wouldn't be happy if the Feds passed a requirement of 50%. You would like to see the system torn down and not reformed. Is that an accurate description of your view of the system, or am I misreading you?

It seems to me that such details are very important in determining the stability of the system. I am not an economist so I am not really qualified to say that a 1% ratio would be unstable but a 10% ratio would be stable under such and such circumstances. However, I would imagine there are others who have spent a great deal of time studying such issues who can comment on this more intelligently than you or I can.

Of course, if 100% of the people and businesses withdrew all their money in a panic, even a reserve requirements ratio of 99% wouldn't be good enough. But the probability of that happening seems close to zero.

The real question is this: does the Reserve requirements ratio have enough cushion built in so that the system can absorb the shock from increased demand for cash. The article I quoted states there will be enough for every adult to withdraw $1,000 in December. Will that be enough? For the life of me, I don't see why anyone would need more cash than that, especially if they have supplies that will last them a week or two, a checking account to write checks, and some credit cards. And remember, a lot of people will withdraw significantly less then $1,000 because many live from paycheck to paycheck and don't have $1,000 to withdraw.

As far as my being a poster at BIFFY and the debunking site--yes it's true. I post there. So? Does that make my points any less valid?

I'm not sure what the problem is with asking Mr. Decker's opinion about this. How could anyone object to having their ideas examined by someone who really knows what he is talking about? If the ideas in the article are solid then Mr. Decker will not be able to tear them apart. If they are not, then Mr. Decker would be able to point out their weaknesses. Who would be better to help us explore this matter than a well-versed economist? And what other economist do I know then Mr. Decker?

Well, that is what I was thinking when I posted my paging Mr. Decker post yesterday. Today I slapped myself on the head and said D'oh! I realized that there is another economist who might be able to shed some light on this matter--Jennifer Yourdon! I would welcome her commenting on this. In fact, I am going to start another thread to ask for her comments on the current banking system and whether it is inherantly a scam destined to failure, y2k or no y2k. If anyone knows her e-mail address I would like to e-mail my question to her in case she doesn't follow the forum.

Oh, one other point, Ray. You may want to get rid of our fiat system, but what would you replace it with? I imagine any other system would make credit so tight that the average person could not borrow for a home mortage or start a business. I don't know if our economy would run anywhere as smoothly under another system as it does our system. And even if you could show me an example of another system with a highly efficient economy, I don't know how you could move from our system to another system without causing wide-scale economic disruptions. Before scrapping our system we had better be sure that we can replace it with a better one and that the transition can be made without totally disrupting society.

-- Robin S. Messing (rsm7@cornell.edu), June 07, 1999.


I just posted my page to Jennifer Yourdon here:

http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=000vN1

-- Robin S. Messing (rsm7@cornell.edu), June 07, 1999.


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