On a scale of 0 to 10, where does everyone rank y2k now? I've become MORE perimmistic.greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread
I now expect y2k, and its related effects to be worse than I expected. I belive that y2k will be a 7.5 to 10. A 7.5 is a severe recession, almost to the point of depression, for the US, with the rest of the world in depression. of course, a 10 is TEOTWAWKI, through a y2k collapse, nuclear war, bio terrorism, or something else. Where are the rest of you, now?
-- Crono (Crono@timesend.com), June 03, 1999
...ignoring death-loving doomsters who drool at the thought of the End Of The World...
-- Y2K Pro (email@example.com), June 03, 1999.
IMO, 6 - 8, but won't rule out a 10. The 10 would come LATER, as the world economies fell, and that destroyed ours in the U.S. But hey, the IRS would cease to exist, so maybe it's not ALL bad. ;^)
Be aware, if it DOES turn out to be a 10, it is (again, IMO) HIGHLY unlikely that ANY amount of preparation/relocation will save lives. The MANY will seek out the FEW, and destroy them without mercy, if for no other reason than that the FEW were RIGHT. (The ULTIMATE "polly" revenge, don't you think?)
BTW, me: computer consultant (25 years in the biz), electrical engineering degree, worked on "big iron" and mini's my whole adult life...
-- Dennis (firstname.lastname@example.org), June 03, 1999.
As above, 6 to 8. (Leaning more towards 8 today - wouldn't count out worse either).
A lot depends on how many and which "dominos" fall. For me, its never been "just" Y2K the technological problem but also all the shaky systems (stock market, Russia) ready to fall.
-- Jon Johnson (email@example.com), June 03, 1999.
That is not an answer, even you can put your opinion on this.
I would like to split it up
Country 5 (Canada)
World 7 - 8
-- Brian (firstname.lastname@example.org), June 03, 1999.
Every piece of bad news in the world shows up on this forum.
I used to be a doomer just like you all. Made some preparations, etc. Now I have moved on with my life and don't worry much every time there is a fart somewhere on earth.
Never see good news here. It's not welcome. Have fun Y'all.
Pro 2 who had learned to live again.
-- Pro 2 (LivingLife@getone.com), June 03, 1999.
I'm more optimistic than I was six months ago. I'm at 8. Could be worse elsewhere in the world.
-- David Palm (email@example.com), June 03, 1999.
I am also more optimistic '7'. But that's mostly because my preparations are almost complete. I only need to buy last minute items now.
-- DJ (firstname.lastname@example.org), June 03, 1999.
Fair enough Brian:
-- Y2K Pro (email@example.com), June 03, 1999.
-- actual (firstname.lastname@example.org), June 03, 1999.
I'm still at a 4-6 in the US, 8-10 elsewhere.
-- TECH32 (TECH32@NOMAIL.COM), June 03, 1999.
The BD Y2K Impact Scale
-- Bingo1 (email@example.com), June 03, 1999.
I am more optimistic than I have been previously. Canada's fiscal year has came and went with no problems. I filed my income tax in late April, and it arrived back no problemo! I believe (based on my conversations with local utility providers) that we may experience short term power disruptions, but nothing that won't be fixed promptly. I think we'll see some businesses go bankrupt, and possibly have some transportation delays - but we'll get by! (4)
-- jolly (firstname.lastname@example.org), June 03, 1999.
Today? 7 - 8
-- Bingo (email@example.com), June 03, 1999.
Hmmmm.....here is a "waffling" answer:
Local (US/Canada) 4-7.5 (I am uncertain as to whether problems will be primarily caused by actual tech problems or mass panic/stock market crash - sucks either way).
Less developed countries reliant on high tech for water: 8-9 at least for awhile - until help can arrive. (of course to my limited knowledge these areas already exist at what I consider a 5-7 range when compared to US).
I love to see good news but I can't imagine anything realistically happening between now and Y2k that would convince me that preparing for at least a 7-8 is imprudent. Too much double talk, locally nothing convinces me that they will be ready for problems, issues abound about water supply not functional with ANY power outage at all, etcetera. Still hoping that nothing big happens (contrary to what the pollies say I DON'T LOOK FORWARD TO TEOTWAWKI)and we can enjoy a happy new year!
-- Kristi (firstname.lastname@example.org), June 03, 1999.
Local 3, Canada 4 US 4 The estimates are only if Western North America is not hit with major earthquake and nucular plants don't melt down.
But I'm generally more optimistic than most on this form, even though I've been involved since 1991 with this issue. justthinkin
-- justthink com (email@example.com), June 03, 1999.
My neighborhood: 3-5 My county/state/USA: 6-8
Worldwide, too different to say. Some places will never notice, they are already in the pot. Some places will worsen a few points, some will get better.
I fully expect some governments to change hands, and many companies to fall. Not from direct causes for the most part, but from indirect and supply line problems.
I used to think worse, now I have lightened up a bit. This is NOT from hearing Good news. I like hearing good news, but it does not reach anywhere near the scale of good news we should be hearing by now. No.... I am happier just because we and our friends are ready for problems. We are ready to feed and care for ourselves and a good many of the neighbors too.
-- Art Welling (firstname.lastname@example.org), June 03, 1999.
US - 7
Canada - 7
World - 8.5 to 10 depending on location
-- Bunny (email@example.com), June 03, 1999.
Haven't changed much 8-10.Every piece of good news seems to be more than outweighed by new information detailing the complexity of systems in general.
The weakest link in even the grandest systems seems to be that little old widget maker who will fix on failure.
-- Chris (firstname.lastname@example.org), June 03, 1999.
How could anyone think, after researching this for months and hearing the bold face lying, lying and more lying that we're treated to from "authority" figures, that we won't have a 9 or greater is beyond me.
No compliant water dept., large banks, etc., etc. No compliance across the board in ANY industry.
City governments, State, the Feds.
NOTHING BUT LARGE SCALE DENIAL
For the love of God, if just the post office has serious problems how do companies that we depend on get paid? Do they send out carrier pigeons to their tens of millions of customers to get cash? If the confidence level in banking system goes south even if the system remains intact, again, how do you keep people going to work to fix this mess?
I've heard that we'll go manual. If so, where do you find and train the additional employees. My customers in manufacturing can't find reliable, competent help as "good" as the economy is now.
So many, many unanswered questions everywhere. Contingency plans? My customers don't have'em. I've asked 50 or so. Alot can't properly describe the very problem so how can't they remediate a solution. They can't. "I've rolled the clock to Feb 28, 2000. That's all you have to do,right?" Sure. That's all I said. I've tried to explain the problem and what they need to do, but alot want to change the topic. Which brings us to the utter lack of leadership on all levels. Light has not been shined on the seriousness or even what the details of the problem really are. It's been considered a trivial issue for most.
Preparedness levels for anything 2 to whatever? You're joking.... A 5 in this country will be a 10. The shock, anger and grief, that many of us have already endured, will debilitate many of the totally unsuspecting. People on medication, alcohol, drug and assorted other maladies will be in the some situation.
Many, many other issues not even foreseen will not help either. Just a total mess that will lead to a panic like we've never seen because the truth is in the broken code and it's everywhere.
-- PJC (email@example.com), June 03, 1999.
You are the first person that has addressed the phenomenon that there may not be any "5"s possible. If one considers that most, if not all homes have at least a weeks food they could live off of, if they had to (cereal,etc.) and then you hear, "prepare for 3 days" Well we've got 3 days food already. I;ve often pondered the ramifications of storing a months worth of food. What I am basically saying is that. If the stores don't have enough food for say 2 weeks. I will be able to eat, but others in my community will be very hungry after they go thru what they had. Even contemplating this scenario is ridiculous. So I agree with your analysis. A 5 is a 10.
-- Dave Butts (firstname.lastname@example.org), June 03, 1999.
I'm always interested in any and all points of view and yes the systemic nature of the problem can surely esculate into disaster. But when people talk about manual they are not talking about everything being done manually, they are talking about this or that small area that will break that will have to be addressed manually. People will jump in to fix and carry the load until something can be automated. But it wouldn't all break. My measuring stick was the Jan 1/99, I really thought that more would happen, it didn't, so I'm more optimistic that the problems will be contained and handled better than we expect. The power grid coordinator for our province in Canada said (and I spoke to him personally at a party) he indicated that everything was OK, (not great but we would hold it together. Our power generating plants are next to coal mines, our gas and oil pipelines have been worked on now for 18 months and are currently looking good. Our banks aren't completely compliant but they have enough systems fixed that the system should hold together. The medical people I've been intouch with are optimistic, the fire department people I've consulted with seem to be prepared. Yes I did not get onto their site to see for myself but even if I discount their measrements by 25% It appears to me the system will hold. And yes I am prepared because Y2k is only one issue on the planet that could cause problems. When Mount st Helen blew we had a rain, floods and debre for several months and we are 500 miles away. Yes always be prepared. Justthinkin
-- justthinkin com (email@example.com), June 03, 1999.
If it were "just y2k",
4 US, 8 world
But with related "complications",
9 US, 10+ world
I assume if your 7.5 is severe recession, a 9 would be severe depression.
-- a (firstname.lastname@example.org), June 03, 1999.
I think it highly laughable that those in the U.S. are quick to rate "overseas" and "third world countries" as a "5" while rating the U.S. "oh, so much less likely to be that fallible"...we ARE a part of the global economy, and therefore, are JUST as susceptible to repercussions from hardest-hit nations as any other...whether or not we are "better prepared"..."dominoes, anyone??" (just MHO!!)
-- N.Smith (email@example.com), June 03, 1999.
Crono, what is your area of expertize? why are you more pessimistic? I'd say I am about a .7 but what does that mean to anyone? who am I? If someone with credentials says "I think it will be a 7" I'm inclined to believe that if they show proof of that conclusion.
By way of example, I don't believe Dr. North is a valid source as a historian who is a 10.
-- Realist (self@contained..coomm), June 03, 1999.
Just because your power friend says it's so is, again, wishful thinking. The byproduct of deep denial. The power grid needs to be tested end-to-end, but it can't be because the systems can't all be pulled offline. Ditto the telephone systems which the grid must have. Simply no evidence that this complex system will function.
In the world of computers, Murphy's Law reigns supreme especially in extremely large systems. There is far too much "it's OK" talk. Anyone that's sees the macro level problems is alarmed because the facts are alarming.
-- PJC (firstname.lastname@example.org), June 03, 1999.
Think for yourself!
The "experts" put the world in the box which are the same "experts" that are trying to solve it. The mindset was shortsightedness then and continues to be now. There is so much information that a layman can read on this topic. Truly mountains and mountains often right from the sources. With an ounce of common sense and reading YOU will be an "expert" because there are many DWI,DGI "experts".
The issue of 1-10 is psychological because the facts say 10.
-- PJC (email@example.com), June 03, 1999.
It doesn't matter what anyone's "credentials" are. I've known hoards of well educated, well spoken people who were so full of credentials they had to have two business cards, but they were dumb as hell. I'm an 8 sliding towards 10.
-- Will continue (firstname.lastname@example.org), June 03, 1999.
No, the facts don't say 10
-- realist (email@example.com), June 03, 1999.
I think it has to be close to a 10. There are 50 nuclear facilities in eastern Europe and Russian where no remediation has taken place. I can't believe they're all safely analog. Italy just got over y2khuh? and they have no chance. Japan, who once thought they were immune, now claim to have passed us in remediation.
I mean it's so obvious. You are as safe as the least safe person you truly depend on. America is not an island that can be sealed off. Our trade figures are staggering.
There is going to be suffering and civil unrest in the rest of the world, and we are not immune. If world trade is severely impaired, that's the end of the world as we ever knew it.
I'm not saying it's the end of the world, but that was never the question.
-- Doug (firstname.lastname@example.org), June 03, 1999.
Y2k is already a 5 moving up to being a full f10 twister. no body has seen one before, but doesn't mean it can't happen. If you were a general with a y2k problem on your hands, how would you deal with it. you would become proactive and punch the lights out of your most pain in the butt little problem first (iraq, kosovo)to put the big boys on notice you have the resolve to settle matters with force if they even think of exploiting a y2k major disruption. They need to follow their own speeches that they told to the kids after the high school shootings to solve conflicts with words not weapons. I have very high respect for the Russians for trying so diligently to get the matter in kosovo resloved peacefully. Thank you for giving it your best. We must work harder for peace for our children's sake. If our govt cant find a better way of working out it's disputes other than war, then we need to vote for our entire congress,senate and executive branches dismissal and call for a new election. I think y2k,If this war matter is not resolved will result in the last straw that will break the back of civilization. We can't sit on the side lines and watch them screw the pooch. We must lead by example. Prepare our communities for y2k disruptions, and call our congressman and women on the townhall carpet and explain why they are putting our children and families at risk of nuclear annilation when it is sooo unnessary. Keep the faith the america we love is still alive, but we must be vigilant to ensure that she remains so. Peace and love y2k aware mike
-- y2k aware mike (y2k aware mike @ conservation . com), June 03, 1999.
I have NO HUMBLE opinion. 8-9 US 10+ Global
-- FLAME AWAY (BLehman202@aol.com), June 03, 1999.
Somebody get the flyswatter and smack Y2K Pro!
-- freddie (email@example.com), June 03, 1999.
It has to be a 10, just think of how many people will die if we'er without power for just 2 weeks, how many frozen old and sick and disabled, it will be millions, and things will never be the same again. Zeda
-- Zeda (firstname.lastname@example.org), June 03, 1999.
I have to be a realist, Been that way all my life. Hell, If I'm stuck in water up to my ass there is no use calling it bourbon, Its water.
When I am hungry I want food. When I'm sick I go to a doctor. There are all things for all people. Each has its little nich in this Old USA.
I'm A 10 and even would be a hundred if you would like to enlarge the scale. Same thing.
Don't people realize that more IT people have posted on this thread than pollish people.
If, If, And I think it is very, very possible that oil will come to an end at 2000. Without oil and gas for two weeks we are just waiting for a wreck of the economy as we know it. The rest will come with the lack of oil that is used in everything from suits to shoes, plastics and clorox.
Here are a few examples for people who DGI, But not reall GI.
I- Programmers who are from foreign countries. 2- Programmers that hold a grudge over something or anything.
3- Every computer is fixed and not tested. How many Mistakes were made that will have to be done over?
4- People who think computers are the best thing since God Almighty and will work regardless of the year?
5- The chance of 2% of a large instutions not being Y2K ready for six months, You have Choas. Pick your instution.
6- 50% of the people think that Y2K is a get rich quick scheme only. including many businessmen.
7- The chanches of banks being ready, utilites being ready is a bet better than a horse race withh the fastest horse being 75 to 1 odds.
I don't think even doomers really get it.
I am an old man, lived many a year waiting for the perfect world. It has evaded me as it has others.
# 8- It is the time and the season that we who have had the most and best of all worlds will see the worst of all he world.
The hand has lifted from us as a nation of blessings, to a world of survival. Count on it.
Better still, count the things that is coming to an end and you will get it. Without Y2k we have had our place in the sun. The clouds are gathering because we waited for the KIND leaders to keep the clouds away. Seek ye first The Kingdom of heaven. Its not here.
Now I have a question, When men run with horses who wins?
-- Lon (Lon1937@aol.com), June 03, 1999.
I know that all the debate by this point is raging(lol) and Im giving my answer late.
My humble Y2K scale prediction=4.5
That means 72 to 96 hours of heavy disruptions. Then 4 to 8 months of disruptions that get more mild. And the final quarter more heavy again as many business begin to close out Fiscal year 2000 accounting records.
My advice, 3 to 4 weeks of preps. And adjust accordingly to major dates as predicted this year as indicators of severity.
Pat "Middle of the road sucks."
-- Pat (BAMECW@aol.com), June 03, 1999.
One, two, small boo-boo;
Three, four, troubles more;
Five, six, timebomb ticks;
Seven, eight, escalate;
Nine, ten, end of men.
-- dinosaur (email@example.com), June 03, 1999.
I haven't forgotten the Comet Kahoutek and Halley's Comet.
I think it is very possible that we will have a 0. By zero, I mean that life's problems will not be related to the y2k bug.
The economy is due for a recession anyway. The government seems to be out of control. But these are matters that have nothing to do with the y2k bug.
On the other hand, I believe that a Great Depression is also very possible. I believe that Ludwig von Mises understood economic reality more accurately than John Maynard Keynes. Since governments throughout the world have followed Keynesian policy for sixty years, the day of paying the piper is approaching. The government cannot legislate that 2+2=5. If it behaves as if 2+2 does equal 5, there will be negative consequences, and the more such consequences are delayed, the worse they will be.
My primary disagreement with the 10's on this thread is that they see the situation to be a done deal. I don't.
Now that I have said that both extremes are very possible, let me say what I don't think will happen: a bump in the road. I think the three day storm sales pitch is nonsense. More likely nothing will happen than that.
Now let me add a final point which I have made before. There is a significant number in our society, especially among the elites, who believe that there is no objective reality and that wishing something will make it so. As long as they have had the power of the government to impose their wishes, they have gotten their way.
If the y2k bug shuts down the government computers, the government's ability to impose its redistribution of the wealth vision of America will suffer from a lack of cooperation from those employed in the private sector.
What then? I predict that **MANY** of those who have most enjoyed the Clinton economy will commit suicide. Particularly the college graduates.
For those left, the government will order its troops (speaking broadly) to enforce the law, whatever that may be. Many have posted here that US soldiers will not fire upon their fellow Americans, but I am not at all convinced of that. They will say, "Come with me", somebody will shoot rather than go, and the government shooters will kill "in self-defense".
In that event, I see a race war. The blacks not only overwhelmingly support Clinton, they think that a black who doesn't is a traitor to his race. I believe that black soldiers would not be reluctant to fire upon a white population which refused to obey orders because they (the whites) believed the orders to be unconstitutional.
So in summary, it's either a zero or God help us.
-- GA Russell (firstname.lastname@example.org), June 03, 1999.
I'm @ 7.5 - 8 on your scale.
Rick... who works daily with JIT scheduling.
-- R. Wright (email@example.com), June 04, 1999.
U.S. - 7.0 (an average--will vary by locality)
Germany - 8.5
Russia - 10.0
-- Linkmeister (firstname.lastname@example.org), June 04, 1999.
I was just reading an article about the economy in Asia. They already seem to be deep in a '30s type depression. I'm amazed that it hasn't hit North America already, but I can't believe that it would take very much by way of problems to bring on economic chaos here. I normally rate myself a 5-7, 5 - recession and 7 - depression. If our infrastructure is able to function (and I think we might muddle through), my best guess is an 8 (severe depression).
Got soup for the soup kitchens?
-- Tricia the Canuck (email@example.com), June 04, 1999.
I'm lost somewhere between a 3 (reasonably large recession) and a 10. In my house, if any inconvenience occurs it will be a 10 since my 9- year-old could become a real pain in the ass. (He likes everything just right.) I've been reading this board and every other source I can get my hands on for two years now and am simply delineating the depths of what I don't understand. All I can say is that if it turns out to be a 1, then I'm on the "Truman Show".
-- Dave (firstname.lastname@example.org), June 04, 1999.
u.s.:7-10,world:8-10 but I'm pretty upbeat,even with the impending doom,at least I got to see the new star wars before TSHTF. peace.
-- zoobie (email@example.com), June 04, 1999.
I wish I had a strong personal opinion myself.
I'm leaning towards a 3-4 right now. If it goes above 5, it might as well be a 9 or a 10. As someone above said, a 2-week blockage of food will cause a lot of people to die of secondary (i.e. human) causes.
Re: the rest of the world (non-Western). I think that Asia will go down below the 1930s level if the West crashes. Right now, a good deal of their business has to do with us, has to do with the west. If that stops, then Asia will descend into utter chaos. A major regional war is not unlikely, I believe.
However, I completely disagree with the people who say that the third world will be worse hit than us. In Bangladesh, people live closer to the land. They EXPECT utilities to be down. In most cases, I don't think they're even going to notice y2k. It's us westerners, who live ten degrees of separation from the food industry and who depend on a thousand links of technology to keep our lives livable, who are going to be hit the worst.
-- Leo (firstname.lastname@example.org), June 04, 1999.
Since I already have lived years in human caused TEOTWAWKI, which I rated as 10, I can easily foresee the same for the near future. The first round did not kill me (but almost, many times) but made me stronger.
-- Not Again! (Seenit@ww2.com), June 04, 1999.
US - 9 (I hope it's that good)
Much of the rest of the world - 10 (some 10+)
-- Mad Monk (email@example.com), June 04, 1999.
The pollys keep using that "end of the world" stereotype on us, but we couldn't destroy the world if we wanted to. A changed world? Definitely! I rate it a 10+ on the catastrophe scale for at least several months. Disregarding computers entirely, I base my assessment on one fact, that people are idiots. It will be like the LA riots happening simultaneously all over the world. Then the National Guard will eventually take control, not unlike the "peacekeepers" being sent into Kosovo. It may be years before they leave, if ever.
-- @ (@@@.@), June 04, 1999.
This is not a trick question. Events will grow darker.
-- Randolph (firstname.lastname@example.org), June 04, 1999.
Is L.S.D. running down this thread. Is this the 60's. Where am I. Are we there yet? I have not a clue because I don't know who to trust. Simply waiting for some rationality. Trapped between polly's with their heads in the ground and absolute crazed Lunatics who are seeing things. Flame! Flame you say! My keys are burning for some sanity in the Govt. sector. They are burning for rationally minded folk. This country's media, freedom of speech fanatics, The ignorant bubba's, the intellectually egotistical, the predisposed polly's...they are sending us into a virtual tail spin.Screw Y2k, which in my opinion a 5-10, and all the blubbering idiots on this forum. We need level headed people here! NOW!
-- Feller (email@example.com), June 05, 1999.
Feller --- LSD is rational compared to Y2K. The forum is an "early defense warning" of events several months ahead. It "forecast" Y2K awareness ahead of the crowd. Now, it is forecasting intellectual chaos and confusion thanks to the absurd PR efforts of gov/media, which will inevitably backfire later this year.
No one trusts anyone here (I'm exaggerating). Well, that's how the citizenry is going to feel about this in 4Q 1999.
5 to 10 is about right, not so much due to Y2K technically (though can't ever forget the computers don't care, they will run or break regardless of PR) but because we can't yet foresee the local, national and global reaction to Y2K ... which could damp down damage or explode a controllable situation into chaos.
Split the difference at 8 if you want, but it's just a number.
Which would you bet on with respect to protecting your family (dampening down or explosion)?
-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), June 05, 1999.
Big Dog: A dampening down would be my preference. With all the noise going on here lately, I applaud and appreciate your answer. You and Old Git seem to be quite rational and good for this forum. The slow stream as opposed to the hyperbolical posts seems to do a service to the forum as well.
-- Feller (firstname.lastname@example.org), June 05, 1999.
In recent months I've been moderately swayed by news of people diligently working on the Problem and spending HUGE amounts of money to solve it. Perhaps they started too late, but most well-run institutions have been working on remediating the most important things first--or at least they've been developing contingencies by which they can squeek by. There will be quite a bit of Darwinism going on in the market, with weak institutions dying off and strong ones growing rapidly to fill in the empty niches. Furthemore, even if power/utility outages are widespread, emeregency measures will mitigate them and long-term problems will be minimal. Thus, at least in the short term, I believe that the so-called "golden triangle" will ultimately be sustained to keep our civilization going.
That does not mean that the news will be good. Where before I thought it would be an 8 (in the US), I now surmise that it will "only" be a 6-7 with pockets of 9-10 here and there. Elsewhere in the world it could easily go to 9-10.
If macro-level effects around the world linger and do not get resolved, it will not matter that the US is in a comparably better predicament. We have to import a lot of vital stuff (oil comes to mind first but there are many other things) that might no longer be available as '00 drags on into the summer. A domino effect could be so severe that it could spiral us all into the 9-10 range. But i don't have a crystal ball, and of course I still hope for the best. And remain confused as always.
-- coprolith II (email@example.com), June 05, 1999.