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-- Ct Vronsky (vronsky@anna.com), June 03, 1999

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GREAT article! Thanks for sharing it.

-- King of Spain (madrid@aol.com), June 03, 1999.

Great!

-- curtis schalek (schale1@ibm.net), June 03, 1999.

Here are the compelling numbers as I see them. The market p/e ratio of 34 is twice the historical norm (14.7). Throughout any 15 year period in history, the highest earnings growth recorded is 8.7% (call it 9%). We apply the 72 rule -- a crude but remarkably efficient rule that says (% growth) x (number of years to double) = 72. We find that to bring current p/e's down to the historical average, we must double the earnings by continuing with the highest recorded sustained earnings growth (9%) for 8 years (9 x 8 = 72) WITH NO CHANGE IN STOCK PRICES. Can't happen. A 50% correction (DOW 5000) is the only way. I used to be a "bull". The guys who have been calling for a bear market since DOW 6000 weren't wrong, just early. NOW you mix in the catalyst -- y2k -- and kablam. (The sound of the market imploding.)

-- Dave (aaa@aaa.com), June 03, 1999.