Check out this site: www.sunspotcycle.com. See the latest sunspot number(3rd june): 214! The solar peek for the first half of 2000 was predicted at 170!

What the xxxx is happening??

Any comments?

Sunny

-- sunny (sunny@2muchsunburn.com), June 03, 1999

Answers

Hi Sunny,

Thanks for the site - interesting to note that when I looked at a graph showing the sun spot numbers for the last two historical peaks neither ever hit 214 and now we are there much before the predicted peak. Hmmmmmm..... worth watching updates.

Bye!

-- Kristi (securx@succeed.net), June 03, 1999.

What is happening is that you have, for reasons known only to you, misinterpreted the data. Sunspot numbers are significant in solar activity analyses and predictions only when taken in aggregate over a period of time, measured in months or years.

The predictability of solar "weather" is no more reliable than terrestrial weather prediction; it is more accurate for large areas (macroscopic analysis) over time than for small areas (microscopic analysis) in the short term.

What is the short term? There is no universally accepted value, just as there is no universal methodology for sunspot counts and sunspot group classification. A few weeks is as good a reference as any.

-- LP (soldog@hotmail.com), June 03, 1999.

Cool info Thanks!!!Where did you get that the solar peek for the first half of 2000 was predicted at 170? I didn't see that anywhere.

-- Country boy (Sun's coming up cakes@the griddle.com), June 03, 1999.

It comes and it goes - a century or so after Galileo first described sunspots they became very scarce for over 100 years - the texts of the time call them very rare and had careful drawings so the student could recognise one when he saw it. This time frame is the same as the 'little ice age' - when the Thames river would freeze over so hard at London there would be parties on the ice, with whole oxen roasted over big fires on the ice. Thames hasn't frozen that hard more than once or twice this century - then it was an every year thing.

-- Paul Davis (davisp1953@yahoo.com), June 03, 1999.

LP, I don't understand what you mean by misinterpreting the data.

What I see is that the latest solarmaximum is already above the peak prediction in 2000. See the graph! Also if you look at the historic solar peaks 214 would be extremely high.

Am I making a mistake by thinking that the number which is currently 214 can only go up in the next 12 months?? If that is true we will have 300 or maybe even higher next year. This means an absolute record which definetely going to have severe consequences (elctrical grid, satellites, etc.)

Sunny

-- Sunny (sunny@2muchsunburn.com), June 03, 1999.

"LP, I don't understand what you mean by misinterpreting the data.

"What I see is that the latest solarmaximum is already above the peak prediction in 2000. See the graph! Also if you look at the historic solar peaks 214 would be extremely high.

"Am I making a mistake by thinking that the number which is currently 214 can only go up in the next 12 months?? If that is true we will have 300 or maybe even higher next year. This means an absolute record which definetely going to have severe consequences (elctrical grid, satellites, etc.)"

Sunny,

Looking at my post, I may have been a little too harsh. If so, I apologize. What I meant was that a single sunspot number is in itself relatively meaningless. Since I don't have records of sunspot counts for the other 22 solar cycles, much less counts for any previous cycles, I can't say that the sunspot numbers we are now seeing are the highest ever. They may be.

But, through my studies of solar dynamics, I have learned that sunspot numbers, as reported, must be interpreted with other data to be meaningful. Even then, a record would not necessarily indicate problems for us.

For example, the Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity of 02 June reported a polar cap absorption event (here on earth), and a coronal mass ejection event on the backside of the solar disk. If you read this report carefully, you can see that the CME occurred on the "side" of the sun opposite to that of the solar disk where the sunspots were observed. A PCA is an unusual event, even during a solar maximum, and is caused by energetic protons from the solar wind. However, it takes a while for the protons to get to us from the sun, since they don't travel at the speed of light, like xrays from, say, solar flares.

The same report shows k-indices of 3 or lower, and reports that the geofield is quiet to unsettled. K-indices of 3 or lower says that the geomagnetic field is not active enough to cause power system disruptions. I'm assuming that that is the reason why you posted your report.

These are just a few of the different kinds of data that must be evaluated before anyone can start to sound alarm bells.

For those who study solar activity, your post, while accurate, is in itself misleading in that it doesn't include any other data, such as CME and/or flare activity, where such activity is on the solar surface, reported k-indices for that time period, radio flux readings, energetic particle readings, and any unusual events, such as a PCA, or stratwarm event.

I suppose I'm getting a little punch drunk from having to repeatedly deal with this question. I've posted on it here, and on two other forums, but the same questions and reactions keep coming up. It seems as if no one has taken advantage of the information I have tried to provide, or used the web addresses I've recommended.

Again, I apologize if I was too harsh in my criticism of your offering.

-- LP (soldog@hotmail.com), June 03, 1999.

Sunny,

Sunspot numbers are often expressed as a monthly or yearly average. Monthly and especially daily numbers can go far higher. Take a look at this site...

http://www.ips.gov.au/papers/richard/large_ssn.html

...to see a list of months with high sunspot numbers. Monthly averages have went as high as about 250.

-- Linkmeister (link@librarian.edu), June 03, 1999.

LP, Seems like you're a real expert on this subject. If you have any interesting links on this subject., please mention some. And by the way: I'm not offended by your initial mail,actually I was quite worried. I live in The Netherlands and there is absolutely no news whatever on this subject over here. Thanks for your extensive explanation.

Sunny

-- Sunny (sunny@2muchsunburn.com), June 03, 1999.

LP/Soldog, could you please repost your recommended web pages on this subject? I tried to find your previous post in the archives, but soon gave up. Would really appreciate it....

-- seagreen (seagreen@seagreen.com), June 03, 1999.

I agree with LP. Its really too early to tell if the solar maximum will affect communications. I mean, look at the wa7u8wls sklw

#)# jlkj

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9 9WK KW 2[2P==[=P

-- 2&5 (12fg2 2t@5%j.*)(*)(%), June 03, 1999.

Sunny and seagreen,

I will post the links as soon as I can. Might be a day or so...I've up against an overpacked schedule again, and have to do some travelling tomorrow.

Saturday, at the latest.

Meantime, you might want to glance over this article written for the ham radio community, entitled:

"WWV: More Than Just the Time"

and located at:

http://www.hamradio-online.com/propagation.html

-- LP (soldog@hotmail.com), June 03, 1999.

Sunny and seagreen,

Before I started my url collection, I examined the web page at www.suspotcycle.com. I was relieved to see that many of the web sites I have visited have links there. Specifically, the NASA web site for Marshall SFC, and, naturally, Goddard SFC. Saved me some work.

Anyway, two other sites to visit are the NOAA's Space Environment Laboratory web site at:

http://www.sel.noaa.gov/index.html

and the (IPS) web site in Australia, at:

http://www.ips.gov.au/papers/

The SEL site has some very good educational material you can download. When you get there, click on the "Education and Outreach" link. Once there, look over the topics, "A Primer on the Space Environment," and the "Glossary of Solar-Terrestrial Terms."

Just below those, under, "Short Topic Papers," you might want to look at, "Radio Wave Propagation" (esp. hams), "The Ionosphere," and "Solar Maximum. You will also find that the study course for "Solar Physics and Terrestrial effects" very informative, and easy to follow. No math. Don't be insulted by the note that says "Grades 7-12." It is a very good short introduction to the sun.

When you're ready, go down to the bottom of the page, and click on the link "Information and Educational Pages from the IPS Radio and Space Services in Australia." That will take you to the page at their web site entitled, "Interesting Facts and Educational Material." You can find some good information on solar features, including sunspots, and a brief summary of sunspot observations that lead to some of the problems I mentioned in my first response in this thread, under the category, "Sunspots, Solar Activity, and Solar Flares." You might want to download their glossary to complement the one from the NOAA.

The section entitled, "Space Weather and the Effects of Solar Activity" include a brief summary of the 1989 solar maximum that caused the power outage in Canada. Other articles offer insight on the effect of solar emissions on satellites, communications, and terrestrial weather. That's just some of what they have to offer.

I also get the latest solar and geophysical activity information from the NOAA's gopher server. These days, I concentrate on three daily reports:

High Frequency Radio Propagation report, at:

gopher://solar.sec.noaa.gov:70/11/forecasts/HFRP

Report of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity report, at:

gopher://solar.sec.noaa.gov:70/11/forecasts/RSGA

and the Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Summary report, at:

gopher://solar.sec.noaa.gov:70/11/forecasts/SGAS

There are other reports there, including daily alerts and warnings, and coronal mass ejection (CME) reports. Each listing has a document at the top of the list that explains the terminology used in the reports.

The rest of my information comes from my own small library, with an occasional visit over the web to various campuses that engage in solar research. I also spent some time at the SOHO site, at:

http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/summary/ SOHO Summary Database

You will find links to the YOHKOH site there. A word of caution here. This data is taken almost continuously from a variety of research centers around the world. If you know how to interpret it, you can get a fair idea of what the sun was doing at the time the data was taken. If not, you can spend quite a bit of time downloading impressive looking images, but that's all. If you want to spend the time...

Another site with links to both the SOHO and YOHKOH sites is at:

http://www.maj.com/sun/ Current Solar Data

That shows images taken at different wavelengths (colors). Again, a basic background in solar processes is needed here.

I was unable to locate my posts at any of the sites where I posted them, except Rick Cowles EUY2K site. It has a search engine, so it was easy. It's an economy class engine, but it works.

http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=000ai0 Will the Sun's Coronal Mass Ejections cause blackouts?

I hope this satisfies your requests. I think you'll learn quite a bit at the NOAA's SEL, and the IPS sites.

-- LP (soldog@hotmail.com), June 04, 1999.

Time for SPF 30!

-- && (&&@&&.&), June 04, 1999.